5
C H A P T E R 2
From an Unsustainable to a
Sustainable Progress of Moore’s
Law
2.1 INTRODUCTION
e price or cost per transistor has been used as one metric of measuring the economic impacts
of Moore’s Law. e cost per transistor is an exceptionally good metric because it can easily be
translated into a universal measure of value to a user: transistors. Transistors are a good measure
because in economic terms they translate directly into system functionality. e more the number
of transistors, the greater the functionality of electronic products that consumers can buy. Hence,
a lower cost per transistor translates into a higher buying power for the consumer. Hence, the
goal of the progress of Moore’s Law is essentially growth in consumer purchasing power for the
end user.
2.2 UNSUSTAINABLE PROGRESS OF MOORE’S LAW–A
PROGRESS OF “SUPPLY-SIDE ECONOMICS”
In recent times, there is a growing concern about the state of the global semiconductor ecosystem.
e entire economic structure that was supposed to lead to next-generation manufacturing tech-
nologies, like 450 mm wafers, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, and transistor technology
nodes below 14 nm CMOS, is on the verge of coming apart due to poor consumer demand for
electronic goods. Whether it is transition to 450 mm wafers, higher power requirements for EUV
lithography, or shrinking transistor dimensions for keeping up with progress of Moore’s Law, the
problems facing the semiconductor ecosystem are essentially the same—increased manufacturing
costs that result in poor RoI threaten our progress.
Whether you take into consideration 450 mm silicon wafers, EUV lithography improve-
ments, or scaling transistor geometries, from an economic standpoint there is one thing that
is common to all their respective contributions to the supply of silicon to the economy. While
450 mm silicon wafers would increase the diameter of wafers for mass production to reduce the
costs, the increased yield from larger wafer sizes contributes to an increased supply of silicon.
When it comes to EUV, no one, including lithography systems maker ASML, has yet demon-
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