12.7. A VIRTUAL SIT-DOWN WITH INDUSTRY LEADERS PART VI 87
e same also applies to developing new methodologies and experimenting with new ma-
terials to prolong the physical limits of Moore’s Law. e economic challenges of Moore’s Law
could be overcome by some commonsense macroeconomic reforms. Only by having a free-market
economy will it be possible to have a sustainable economic demand for advanced electronic prod-
ucts. When there is a sustainable demand for the latest and greatest electronic products, then the
investments made by the semiconductor industry to overcome the physical limits of Moore’s Law
could be made sustainable, since they would create a high demand for the manufactured products.
Semiwiki blogger Luke Miller is optimistic about the industry’s ability to meet the chal-
lenges ahead, saying, “As we step out further, electron or quantum computing will unleash a techno-
logical world that would blow our minds, solving mysteries and problems once thought impossible.” I
support Luke and, in order to achieve that transition, the economic limits of Moore’s Law also
have to be overcome. I am sure, with some solutions which I have proposed in this book, those
economic limits that were once thought of as impossible to conquer would also be easily overcome
and eventually it will be physics that will lead to a demise of Moore’s Law.
12.7 A VIRTUAL SIT-DOWN WITH INDUSTRY LEADERS
PART VI
In high tech, we talk about innovation and disruptive technologies, but now it’s time to talk
about what these really look like in the semiconductor industry. In this virtual sit-down, I’ll be
addressing the thoughts of other semiconductor leaders including Semiwiki blogger Erik Esteve;
Semiwiki blogger, Daniel Payne; Semiwiki bloggers and authors of the volume titled “Fabless: e
Transformation of the Semiconductor Industry
,” Paul McLellan and Daniel Nenni.
Erik Esteve believes that innovation has always been the driver for a highly dynamic, cre-
ative, and successful semiconductor industry. He hopes that industry actors will be wise and
leave room for startups to emerge and innovation to flow. Such creativity would enable post-
smartphone products of 2030 or later, keeping the semiconductor industry as dynamic and suc-
cessful as it has been up to now, according to Esteve.
I would answer that a couple of things need to happen to support this vision. For robust
growth of small startups, it is very important that U.S. capitalism undergoes major reforms leading
to a free-market economy. Additionally, mergers and acquisitions form inefficient, large organi-
zations and lead to layoffs when there is a merger between companies that do not have com-
plementary portfolios. Hence, antitrust laws have to be strictly enforced in order to ensure free
markets, and preserve innovation as well as sustain the growth of a highly dynamic, creative, and
successful semiconductor industry.
Daniel Payne said that he hopes to see some new, disruptive nanotechnology emerge that
would disrupt the status quo and incremental improvements. I would like to see Daniel Payne’s
vision turn into reality and believe that with good economic reforms and growth of startups, new
technologies are sure to emerge that would disrupt the status quo and incremental improvements.
88 12. AN ENGAGEMENT WITH SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY
A good economic system would solve, not just current, but also future problems of the global
semiconductor industry.
Paul McLellan is less optimistic. He predicts that the “semiconductor industry is entering an
era where economics that have driven semiconductor for five decades may be coming to an end... On the
other hand, something may change, or maybe this time it really is different.”
McLellan is correct in his analysis that today’s U.S. economy cannot sustain Moore’s Law
anymore, and it is indeed coming to an end due to economics. During these five decades of
progress of Moore’s Law, free-market capitalism has been transformed into monopoly capitalism.
As long as economic reforms bring back those free markets, a brilliant future can be envisioned
for the global semiconductor industry. If there is something that should change then it is the
present form of U.S. capitalism.
Finally, Daniel Nenni weighs in himself, saying that the biggest challenge for the semicon-
ductor industry to move forward is economic. Nenni believes the fabless semiconductor ecosystem
will clear technical hurdles for physical limits. However, he says, we are under-estimating the in-
creasing financial burden of modern semiconductor design and manufacturing. Nenni contends:
“As our industry matures, consolidation comes knocking and doors of innovation start clos-
ing. Today less than 5% of the workforce is engineering and science based. If you really want
to know what will finally kill Moore’s Law, the answer is economics absolutely.”
Nenni is correct that the increasing financial burden of modern semiconductor design and
manufacturing is becoming too risky an investment for many businesses. He is also correct that
very little of the workforce is involved in engineering and scientific advancements. However, I
believe that mass-capitalism-based free-market reforms offer the only solution to these economic
problems. is is the only approach in which wages of employees catch up with their productiv-
ity, establishing a free-market economy. is creates a robust economy while keeping the rising
economic inequality in check, with minimal government intervention, which leads to a robust
growth of small businesses.
With a decentralized supply chain, individual entities in the supply chain prosper and there
is more cooperation than competition. is kind of cooperation leads to collaboration among
businesses. By focusing on the growth of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM)
education, it is possible to increase the percentage of tomorrow’s workforce in these fields. Some
forward thinking and planning would solve even the economic hurdles to the progress of Moore’s
Law. In fact, the present physical and economic challenges to the progress of Moore’s Law are a
boon in terms of helping bring about reforms in the global economy that will lead to all around
progress of all human beings. It gives us an opportunity to make capitalism work for everyone.
Here, I would like to re-iterate what I have already explained in Chapter 6, that it will be physics,
and not economics, which would eventually lead to the demise of Moore’s Law.
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