35
C H A P T E R 6
Would Economics End Moore’s
Law?
6.1 INTRODUCTION
In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, in “Cramming more components onto integrated cir-
cuits” in Electronics Magazine (April 19, 1965), made the observation that, in the history of com-
puting hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every
eighteen months. is law is now used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning
and to set targets for research and development. is means that the cost of computer memory and
computing power declines by 50% about every eighteen months. With the progression of transis-
tor technology to meet Moore’s Law, consumers today get more powerful tablets, smartphones,
and other electronic gadgets. is empirical growth of components on an integrated circuit is
known as Moore’s Law. An explanation of the benefits from the progress of Moore’s Law can be
understood from the powerful consumer electronics gadgets in the hands of human beings. It is
estimated that today’s cell phones have more computing power than what NASA used to go to
the moon in the 1960s.
6.2 DARPA’S BOB COLWELL ABOUT THE END OF
MOORE’S LAW
<iframe src=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpgV6rCn5-g” width=”420” height=”315”
frameborder=”0” allowfullscreen=”allowfullscreen”></iframe>
Figure 6.1: Bob Colwell’s Keynote speech at the Hot Chips 25 Conference entitled “e Chip Design
Game at the End of Moore’s Law,” where Bob makes a compelling statement about the end of Moore’s
Law due to Economics before Physics.
On August 26, 2013, at his keynote speech at the Hot Chips 25 Conference entitled “e
Chip Design Game at the End of Moore’s Law,” Bob Colwell, Director of the Microsystems
Technology Office (MTO) at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), made
a compelling statement about the end of Moore’s Law: “When Moore’s Law ends, it will be eco-
nomics that stops it, not physics. Follow the money.” Colwell also provided an indirect insight into
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