Index

Page references with an f refer to figures, those with a t refer to tables.

9/11 World Trade Center attack, 134–135

A-B-C Model of culture, 19f, 20, 24

Ambiguity, 3, 14

antifragility, 111–115, 117–118, 120–121, 138, 140

Beaufort Wind Force Scale, 1, 2t, 10, 33–34

bias, 100–102

subconscious factors, 101

rational factors, 101–102

Black Swan, 83–84, 108

bouncebackability, 109, 113, 129

bounce forward, 129, 131, 136, 138

BP plc, 119–120

build back better, 128–129

Business Continuity Institute (BCI), 100

Business Continuity Plan (BCP): action plan for, 98, 100

Black Swan events and, 84

documentation for, 117–118, 122

Kipling’s six key questions, 116

media and, 60

proactive and reactive elements of, 106, 115, 140

Chief Risk Officer (CRO), 55

climate change modeling, 92–94

commercial environment, 14

Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO), 6

communications, 14

communication strategy, 54, 56

hurricane watch and warning, 77

jargon and technical terms, 62

organizational resilience and, 111

post-event, 135

senior leadership needs, 91.

competition, 14

complexity, 3, 14–15, 29

cone of uncertainty, 74–76, 96

corporate governance, 70

COVID-19 Pandemic, 43–46

cyclone, 8

decision-making process, 4, 30, 54–56, 71, 86, 90, 94, 137, 140

demographics, 15

disaster recovery plan, 106, 134–135

economic factors, 15, 66

emergent risk, 5, 18, 38, 82–84, 108

enterprise-wide risk management (ERM), 6, 56, 78, 103

environmental factors, 9, 15, 66–67, 103, 126

ethical factors, 15, 29

external environment, 9, 12, 13f, 28–29, 138

Five Capitals of Sustainability, 103–104, 121, 126–127

Forum for the Future, 103

global financial crisis of 2007–2008 (GFC), 28–30

global warming, 91

horizon scanning, 78

hurricane: categories, 32–34, 36, 37t

damage assessment, 123, 125–126

definition of, 33–34, 36

eye of the storm, 49

eye wall, 49–50, 56

forecasting, 72–77

life cycle, 10

media and, 32, 40, 50–51, 76

people affected by, 50–51

preconditions, 11f, 11–12

preparations for, 96–99

recovery and, 123–125

structure of, 49f

wind shear, 25

hurricane alerts, watches or warnings, 52, 77, 90, 96

hurricane analogy, 1–2, 7t

hurricane preparedness framework, 97–99

impact types, 39–40, 45

informational factors, 16

infrastructure, 60

hurricane’s effect on, 50

planning and prediction, 139

recovery and, 124–125

innovation, 16, 114, 138

Institute of Risk Management (IRM), 19–21, 109

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 93

internal environment, 19

international environment, 16

International Risk Governance Council (IRGC), 66–67, 71, 82, 108

ISO 22316:2017 Organizational Resilience, 108–109

ISO 31000:2018 Risk management - Guidelines, 5

Kipling, Rudyard, 116

learning lessons, 123, 129, 135–136

legal environment, 16

lessons-to-be-learned (L2BL), 130, 131f

long-term rebuilding, 128–130, 140

market forces, 16

meteorological models, 73, 90

meteorologists, 1–2, 9, 34, 51, 72–75, 77, 92

Morgan Stanley, 134–135

operational uncertainty, 17

organizational culture, definition of, 19

organizational resilience: action plan for, 117–118, 120, 122, 138

adaptability and, 113

definition of, 108–109

guidelines for, 110–111

Institute of Risk Management (IRM) framework, 109, 111

International Consortium for Organizational Resilience (ICOR) framework, 110–111

proactive organizations and, 27, 140

Resilient Organisations framework, 111, 112f

response actions, 108–113, 135

senior leadership and, 53, 57. See also antifragility

persons affected: emergency service providers, 60

essential service providers, 59

media, 60

operational/functional workface, 57–58

risk consultants, 61–67

senior leadership, 52–57

upper management, 56–57

PESTLE and variants, 12–13

political landscape, 17

Polly Peck International (PPI), 68–70

propinquity, 58–59, 102

proximity, 58–59

quantitative risk analysis (QRA): football plot, 86–90

probabilistic modeling, 79, 94

S-curve, 84–89

rate of change, 12, 26–28, 30–31, 56, 72, 102, 138

regulatory regime, 17, 29

resilience, 108–111

definition, 108–109

and culture, 111

Resilient Organisations research consortium, 111

resources, 57, 67, 107, 117

risk: definition of, 5, 39

threat and opportunity, 5, 78–79, 131

risk appetite, 4, 47, 54, 71, 85, 102–103, 107, 132, 139

risk capacity, 6, 54, 71, 139

risk communication, 6, 62

risk culture: audits, 138

definition of, 20

model of, 20–22

weakness of, 23, 25, 28–30

Risk Culture Aspects Model (IRM), 20–21, 21f

risk data, 77–79, 91–92, 94–95. See also quantitative risk analysis

Risk Hurricane: categories, 33, 36, 38–41, 43, 45, 47, 137, 139

damage assessment, 123, 126–128, 136, 140

definition of, 52

eye of the storm, 52–53, 56, 68, 70

eye wall, 56–57, 69

forecasting, 77–79

preconditions, 139

severity of, 36, 38–43, 45–47

Risk Hurricane preparedness: longer term, 96, 105, 108, 111, 120–121, 123, 125–126, 135–136, 138, 140

response actions, 105–108, 117–118, 121–122

short-term preemptive and reactive, 102–103, 105–106, 108, 111, 115–116, 121–122, 127, 138–140

stress testing, 102–103

Risk Hurricane Severity Scale (RHSS), 33, 38t, 39, 43

extended RHSS, 39, 41t, 43

risk information: informational factors, 16, 53–55, 57

information needs analysis, 54, 71

risk leadership, 131–133, 136

risk management process, 3–4

eight questions, 6, 20

Risk Management Professionalism Manifesto (Hillson), 63

risk mindset, 9, 22–24

risk modeling outputs, 81, 89

cumulative probability curve, 84–85

football plot, 86, 87f, 88–90

probabilistic forecast plot, 88–90;

S-Curve, 84–89

risk models, 80–82, 87, 89–90, 133

Monte Carlo simulation, 79, 84–85, 87–88

system-based modeling, 81, 83–84

risk practitioners, 61, 63, 67, 79, 90, 109, 133

risk proximity, 66, 91, 102

risk radar, 18, 78, 83, 86

risk thresholds, 4, 30, 47, 54, 102–103, 118, 121–122, 139

risk velocity, 78

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), 34, 35t, 36, 38–39, 43

extended SSHWS, 34, 36, 37t, 43

senior leadership: advice from, 63, 94–95, 133, 139

communication by, 62

strategic decisions by, 71, 78

time based information to, 86, 89. See also persons affected

social/socio-cultural factors, 17

stakeholders, 21, 59, 65, 70, 83, 115, 136, 139

stress testing, 102–104, 118–121, 140

supply chain, 14–16, 46, 59, 127–128

sustainability analysis, 102–103. See also Five Capitals of Sustainability

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 83, 101, 111

technology, 17

tropical depression, 10, 19, 25

tropical disturbance, 10, 25

tropical storm, 10, 13, 25, 33, 75

tropical wave, 10, 24–25

typhoon, 8

UK National Preparedness Commission, 118

UK Serious Fraud Office (SFO), 68

uncertainty, 3, 14–18, 25–26

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), 108

U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), 34, 51–52

volatility, 3, 18

VUCA, 3, 13

vulnerability, 126, 140

vulnerability assessment, 96, 105, 106f, 126, 135

vulnerability index, 105

World Economic Forum (WEF), 65, 67, 71

Chief Risk Officers’ Community, 65

Global Future Council on Frontier Risks, 65

Global Risks Practice, 65–67

Global Risks Report, 65–66

World Health Organization (WHO), 44–46

World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 34, 65–67

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs), 51, 63

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC), 51

World Weather Watch Programme, 51

World Trade Center (WTC), 134

zero-carbon future, 118–120