When there's no real difference between the two groups

Just as a sanity check, let's go ahead and change things so that there's no real difference between these two groups. So, I'm going to change group B, the control group in this case, to be the same as the treatment, where the mean is 25, the standard deviation is unchanged, and the sample size is unchanged as shown here:

B = np.random.normal(25.0, 5.0, 10000) 
 
stats.ttest_ind(A, B) 

If we go ahead and run this, you can see our t-test ends up being below one now:

Remember this is in terms of standard deviation. So this implies that there's probably not a real change there unless we have a much higher p-value as well, over 30 percent.

Now, these are still relatively high numbers. You can see that random variation can be kind of an insidious thing. This is why you need to decide ahead of time what would be an acceptable limit for p-value.

You know, you could look at this after the fact and say, "30 percent odds, you know, that's not so bad, we can live with that," but, no. I mean, in reality and practice you want to see p-values that are below 5 percent, ideally below 1 percent, and a value of 30 percent means it's actually not that strong of a result. So, don't justify it after the fact, go into your experiment in knowing what your threshold is.

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