38 5. QUESTION 1
Different constituents will define uncertainty differently. Engineers tend to be very formal
and impersonal about it but people whose lives or living are threatened will have a very different
perspective. Loads are not the only uncertainty in problem definition. ere are uncertainties
related to such things as the timing, location, and magnitude of loads. Referring back to the
storm, the nightly news constantly “predicting” both the location and the timing of the storm,
magnitude of winds, and the height of the storm surge, which were not the only uncertainties
in this case. What about the impacts of these loads, they are sources of uncertainties. Of course,
it is very difficult to know what will happen when an event like this occurs. Some structures
perform better than expected while others fail when expected to survive.
In addition to the uncertainties in problem definition we also face them in problem solu-
tions, but those issues will be discussed in a later chapter.
Certainty went out of the world in the 20th century [59]. Instead of seeking certainty
we now try to quantify the uncertainty! is is one of the reasons most engineering programs
include probability and statistics in the curriculum. What we are advocating for here though
is thinking about certainty, or uncertainty, earlier in the process. Most engineers have become
accustomed to developed probabilities for their solutions but first we must decide how certain,
or uncertain, is the problem we are planning on solving.
Uncertainty in engineering, as in science, often focuses on quantifying uncertainty. For
example, lack of certainty of loads on structure may be subjected to result in a safety factor to
account for that uncertainty or with uncertainty related to material strengths of the component
parts of the artifact. Natural disaster events such as floods and earthquake are also quantified
using modern statistical methods to quantify their uncertainty. It is important to note that these
issues revolve around putting a solution together and do not attempt to look at the uncertainty
of whether the correct problem is being solved or whether the solution method itself is the
best choice. For a technology to be “just” it becomes important to broaden the question of
uncertainty to the larger context of problem definition. Are we certain we are working on the
correct problem?
5.5 PROBLEM DEFINITION
In traditional engineering design processes problem definition refers to an iterative process be-
tween the designer and the client, where the client is typically the entity providing the funding
for the project. In some cases, other interested parties, e.g., the general public, are also included
in this process. For example, when designing public infrastructure it is common to hold open
public forums to include the concerns of people affected by a project, not just the funders of
the project. Although even in this example the case can be made that the public is the funding
source through tax revenue. In general, there are situations where interested or affected parties
are engaged in the problem definition phase of a design. e questions above push this concept
further by adopting a much broader philosophy when considering who are the clients. By asking
how lasting a problem and its solution are active, future generations become part of the client
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