43. THE ADOPTION PREDICTION WEDGE
* Enacting an idea doesn’t always mean that everything has to happen at once. If you want to launch the complete package all at once, then maybe. But releasing an early prototype and then making refinements may be just as useful.
* The Adoption Prediction Wedge is a handy way of working out how much acceptance and adoption of the idea you really need to get underway. Sometimes if a few early adopters become fans, they can have a major bearing on future success.
* In this example, we examine the classic adoption sequence of a new product or craze. Early adopters are the first to get going, followed by the secondary and late adopters, followed at the end by the laggards.
* These sections are at their most powerful when populated by figures. If you can make estimates of adoption before proceeding, you may be able to make better decisions, or make a more convincing case to secure investment and commitment for the idea.
EXERCISE: Identify types of potential adopters or users of the idea, work out rough quantities of each, and plot them over time. Examine what these quantities mean for demand, supply, revenue, profit, company resource and other relevant factors. Use the prediction to plan the enactment of the idea sensibly, or explain the pace of it to any concerned parties who could affect its success.