36.10. You Know You Didn't Understand Planning in the UP When...

  • All the iterations are speculatively planned in detail, with the work and objectives for each iteration predicted.

  • Early estimates in inception or the first iteration of elaboration are expected to be reliable, and are used to make long-term project commitments; to generalize, reliable estimates are expected with trivial or light-weight investigation.

  • Easy problems or low-risk issues are tackled in early iterations.

If an organization's estimation and planning process looks something like the following, planning in the UP was not understood:

1.
At the start of an annual planning phase, new systems or features are identified at a high level; for instance, “Web system for account management.”

2.
Technical managers are given a short period to speculatively estimate the effort and duration for large, expensive, or risky projects, often involving new technologies.

3.
The plan and budget of projects are established for the year.

4.
Stakeholders are concerned when actual projects do not match original estimates. Go to Step 1.

This approach lacks realistic and iteratively refined estimation based upon serious investigation as promoted by the UP.

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