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PART II ANALYSIS OF PERIODIC DATA AND MODEL SELECTION
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PART II ANALYSIS OF PERIODIC DATA AND MODEL SELECTION
by DeWayne Derryberry
Basic Data Analysis for Time Series with R
PREFACE
What This Book is About
Motivation
Required Background
A Couple of Odd Features
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
PART I BASIC CORRELATION STRUCTURES
1 R Basics
1.1 Getting Started
1.2 Special R Conventions
1.3 Common Structures
1.4 Common Functions
1.5 Time Series Functions
1.6 Importing Data
Exercises
2 Review of Regression and More About R
2.1 Goals of This Chapter
2.2 The Simple(ST) Regression Model
2.3 Simulating The Data From A Model and Estimating The Model Parameters in R
2.4 Basic Inference for the Model
2.5 Residuals Analysis—What Can go Wrong…
2.6 Matrix Manipulation in R
Exercises
3 The Modeling Approach Taken in this Book and Some Examples of Typical Serially Correlated Data
3.1 Signal and Noise
3.2 Time Series Data
3.3 Simple Regression in the Framework
3.4 Real Data and Simulated Data
3.5 The Diversity of Time Series Data
3.6 Getting Data Into R
Exercises
4 Some Comments on Assumptions
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The Normality Assumption
4.3 Equal Variance
4.4 Independence
4.5 Power of Logarithmic Transformations Illustrated
4.6 Summary
Exercises
5 The Autocorrelation Function And AR(1), AR(2) Models
5.1 Standard Models—What are the Alternatives to WHITE NOISE?
5.2 Autocovariance and Autocorrelation
5.3 The acf() Function in R
5.4 The First Alternative to White Noise: Autoregressive Errors—AR(1), AR(2)
Exercises
6 The Moving Average Models MA(1) And MA(2)
6.1 The Moving Average Model
6.2 The Autocorrelation for MA(1) Models
6.3 A Duality Between MA(l) And AR(m) Models
6.4 The Autocorrelation for MA(2) Models
6.5 Simulated Examples of the MA(1) Model
6.6 Simulated Examples of the MA(2) Model
6.7 AR(m) and MA(l) model acf() Plots
Exercises
PART II ANALYSIS OF PERIODIC DATA AND MODEL SELECTION
7 Review of Transcendental Functions and Complex Numbers
7.1 Background
7.2 Complex Arithmetic
7.3 Some Important Series
7.4 Useful Facts About Periodic Transcendental Functions
Exercises
8 The Power Spectrum and the Periodogram
8.1 Introduction
8.2 A Definition and a Simplified Form for p(f)
8.3 Inverting p(f) to Recover the Ck Values
8.4 The Power Spectrum for Some Familiar Models
8.5 The Periodogram, a Closer Look
8.6 The Function SPEC.PGRAM() in R
Exercises
9 Smoothers, The Bias-Variance Tradeoff, and the Smoothed Periodogram
9.1 Why is Smoothing Required?
9.2 Smoothing, Bias, and Variance
9.3 Smoothers Used in R
9.4 Smoothing the Periodogram for a Series With a Known and Unknown Period
9.5 Summary
Exercises
10 A Regression Model for Periodic Data
10.1 The Model
10.2 An Example: The NYC Temperature Data
10.3 Complications 1: CO2 Data
10.4 Complications 2: Sunspot Numbers
10.5 Complications 3: Accidental Deaths
10.6 Summary
Exercises
11 Model Selection and Cross-Validation
11.1 Background
11.2 Hypothesis tests in simple regression
11.3 A more general setting for likelihood ratio tests
11.4 A subtlety different situation
11.5 Information criteria
11.6 Cross-validation (Data splitting): NYC temperatures
11.7 Summary
Exercises
12 Fitting Fourier series
12.1 Introduction: more complex periodic models
12.2 More complex periodic behavior: Accidental deaths
12.3 The Boise river flow data
12.4 Where do we go from here?
Exercises
13 Adjusting for AR(1) Correlation in Complex Models
13.1 Introduction
13.2 The Two-Sample t-Test—UNCUT and Patch-Cut Forest-Test—UNCUT and Patch-Cut Forest
13.3 The Second Sleuth Case—Global Warming, A Simple Regression
13.4 The Semmelweis Intervention
13.5 The NYC Temperatures (Adjusted)
13.6 The Boise River Flow Data: Model Selection With Filtering
13.7 Implications of AR(1) Adjustments and the “Skip” Method
13.8 Summary
Exercises
PART III COMPLEX TEMPORAL STRUCTURES
14 The backshift operator, the impulse response function, and general ARMA models
14.1 The general ARMA model
14.2 The backshift (shift, lag) operator
14.3 The impulse response operator – intuition
14.4 Impulse response operator, g(B)—computation—computation
14.5 Interpretation and utility of the impulse response function
Exercises
15 The Yule–Walker Equations and the Partial Autocorrelation Function
15.1 Background
15.2 Autocovariance of an ARMA(m,l) Model
15.3 AR(m) and the Yule–Walker Equations) and the Yule–Walker Equations
15.4 The Partial Autocorrelation Plot
15.5 The Spectrum For Arma Processes
15.6 Summary
Exercises
16 Modeling philosophy and Complete Examples
16.1 Modeling overview
16.2 A complex periodic model—Monthly river flows, Furnas 1931–1978
16.3 A modeling example—trend and periodicity: CO2 levels at Mauna Lau
16.4 Modeling periodicity with a possible intervention—two examples
16.5 Periodic models: monthly, weekly, and daily averages
16.6 Summary
Exercises
PART IV SOME DETAILED AND COMPLETE EXAMPLES
17 Wolf's sunspot number data
17.1 Background
17.2 Unknown period ⇒ nonlinear model
17.3 The function nls() IN R
17.4 Determining the period
17.5 Instability in the mean, amplitude, and period
17.6 Data splitting for prediction
17.7 Summary
Exercises
18 An Analysis of Some Prostate and Breast Cancer Data
18.1 Background
18.2 The First Data Set
18.3 The Second Data Set
Exercises
19 Christopher Tennant/Ben Crosby Watershed Data
19.1 Background and Question
19.2 Looking at the Data and Fitting Fourier Series
19.3 Averaging Data
19.4 Results
Exercises
20 Vostok Ice Core Data
20.1 Source of the Data
20.2 Background
20.3 Alignment
20.4 A NaÏve Analysis
20.5 A Related Simulation
20.6 An AR(1) Model for Irregular Spacing
20.7 Summary
Exercises
Appendix A Using Datamarket
A.1 Overview
A.2 Loading a Time Series in Datamarket
A.3 Respecting Datamarket Licensing Agreements
Appendix B AIC is PRESS!
B.1 Introduction
B.2 Press
B.3 Connection to Akaike's result
B.4 Normalization and R2
B.5 An example
B.6 Conclusion and further comments
Appendix C A 15-Minute Tutorial on Nonlinear Optimization
C.1 Introduction
C.2 Newton's method for one-dimensional nonlinear optimization
C.3 A sequence of directions, step sizes, and a stopping rule
C.4 What could go wrong?
C.5 Generalizing the optimization problem
C.6 What could go wrong—revisited
C.7 What can be done?
REFERENCES
INDEX
End User License Agreement
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6 The Moving Average Models MA(1) And MA(2)
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7 Review of Transcendental Functions and Complex Numbers
PART II
ANALYSIS OF PERIODIC DATA AND MODEL SELECTION
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