Index
3-Point Estimate 470; see also Accuracy and Precision
Accuracy 470; see also Precision and 3-Point Estimate
Actual Cost (AC) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Actual Time (AT) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Adjusted R-Square 165, 470; see also R-Square
ADORE 470; Assumption 471; Dependency 474; Exclusion 477; Opportunity 482; Risk 484
Alternative Hypothesis see Hypothesis Testing
Analogical Estimating Method 10, 470
Analogous Method see Analogical Estimating Method
Analogy 113–210, 470 see Analogical Estimating Method
ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) 144, 152, 165, 335–6
Approach see Estimating Approach
Arithmetic Mean 115–16, 120, 181, 471
Assumption 471; see also ADORE
Average see Arithmetic Mean
Average Absolute Deviation (AAD) 471; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Axiom 471
Backward Elimination 193, 197–201, 206–8, 310, 323–30; Stepping Back 325; Stepping Sideways 328; Stepping Up 323; see also Stepwise Regression
Base Year Values 471
Benford’s Law 471; fraud detection 10
Bessel’s Correction Factor 471
Binary Switch 313; see also Categorical variable
Budget At Completion (BAC) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Categorical Variable 133, 302, 313–16, 455–6
cause and effect 114
chance occurrence see F-Statistic
Chauvenet’s Criterion 139–40, 471; see also Outlier Test
Chi-Squared Distribution 321
Chi-Squared Test 472
choice of regression model 208–9; Adjusted R-Square 208–9; R-Square 208–9
Classical Decomposition Method 438–9; Additive/Subtractive 438–9; Convergence Funnels 430–1; Cumulative Average 422–9; Exponential trend 430–6; Linear Regression 416–20; Moving Average 420, 424–9; Multiplicative 440–3 procedure 440–2; seasonal smoothing 420–4; Trend 420–37
Closed Interval 472; see also Open Interval
Coefficient of Determination 201, 472; Goodness of Fit 141–9; see also R-Square
Coefficient of Variation (CV) 472
Collaborative Working 12; penalty 472
Collinearity see Multicollinearity
Comparative Estimating Method see Analogical Estimating Method
concave curve or function 227, 339, 472; see also convex curve
Confidence Interval 288–90, 472, 484; see also Prediction Interval
Confidence Level 472
Confidence Limit 473
Continuous Linear Function 26–33
convex curve or function 227, 339, 473; see also concave curve
Correlation 11, 17–19, 473; Copula 473; Pearson’s Linear Correlation Coefficient 482; see also Measures of Linearity, Dependence and Correlation; see also Linear Correlation and Rank Correlation
Cost Driver see Estimate Drivers
Cost Performance Index (CPI) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Cost Variance (CV) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Covariance 473; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Crawford’s Unit Learning Curve 473; see also Quantity-based Learning Curve
Critical Path 473
Cross-Impact Analysis 473
Cumulative Average 21–5, 473; Lag 98; Slope 98–100
Cumulative Average Smoothing 96–111; Cumulative Batch Data 103; Equivalent Units 103–5; Missing values 101–3; Moving Cumulative Average 97; Point Cumulative Average 96; where and when to use it 97–101
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) 472; Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF) 472; Continuous 474; Discrete 473
Cumulative value 21–6, 26–33, 361–9
Current Year Value 474
Curve Fitting 47
CV: see Coefficient of Variation and Cost Variance
data scatter 295; Lognormal Distribution 295; Normal Distribution 289, 295; Student’s t-Distribution 289, 295
Data Type 474
deadweight 308
Deciles 474; see also Percentiles, Quantiles, Quartiles and Quintiles; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Degrees of Freedom 474
DeJong Unit Learning Curve 474; see also Quantity-based Learning Curve
Delphi Technique 474
Dependency 474; see also ADORE
dependent and independent variables 114, 130–1
Descriptive Statistic 474; see also Inferential Statistic
Dimmer Switch 313–16, see also Categorical variable
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 474; Discount Rate 474
Dixon’s Q-Test 475; see also Outlier Test
Drivers see Estimate Drivers
Dummy Variable see Categorical Variable
Earned Schedule (ES) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Earned Value (EV) see BCWP (Budget Cost of Work Performed)
Earned Value Analysis 475 see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Earned Value Management (EVM) 475; see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology 475
Estimate 476
Estimate At Completion (EAC) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Estimate Drivers 476
Estimate Maturity Assessment (EMA) 9, 476
Estimate To Completion (ETC) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Estimating Approach 9, 476; Bottom-up Approach 471; Ethereal Approach 477; Top-down Approach 487
Estimating Metric 476, 477; Factors 477; Rates 484; Ratios 484
Estimating Procedure 4777; Classical Decomposition Method 438–41; Multiple Linear Regression 443; Time Series Analysis 411, 438–41, 462–5
EVM Abbreviations and Terminology 271–4; AC (Actual Cost) 272–3; ACWP (Actual Cost of Work Performed) 272–3, 475; AT (Actual Time) 273, 475; BAC (Budget At Completion) 272, 475; BCWP (Budget Cost of Work Performed) 272–3, 475; BCWS (Budget Cost of Work Scheduled) 272–3, 475; CPI (Cost Performance Index) 273, 475; CV (Cost Variance) 273, 475; EAC (Estimate At Completion) 272–3, 475; ES (Earned Schedule) 273, 475; ETC (Estimate To Completion) 475; EV (Earned Value) 272–3; PV (Planned Value) 272–3; SPI (Schedule Performance Index - Cost Impact) 273, 476; SPI(t) 273–4; SPI(t) (Schedule Performance Index - Time Impact) 476; SV (Schedule Variance - Cost Impact) 273, 476; SV(t) (Schedule Variance - Time Impact) 273–4, 476
Excel function see Microsoft Excel functions
Excess Kurtosis 477; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Expected Value Technique see Factored Value Technique
Exponential Function 456, 477; combining with Power Function 299; Generalised 249–50, 348–50, 454; Linear Transformation 231–2; offset constant 249–50; reversing the Linear Transformation 233; Standard 230–3, 249–50
Exponential Smoothing 89–96, 477; choice of Damping Factor 92–4; choice of Smoothing Constant 92–4; Damping Factor 89–92; Double Exponential Smoothing 95–6; Smoothing Constant 89–92; Triple Exponential Smoothing 96; where and when to use it 94–5
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average see Exponential Smoothing
Factored Value Technique 477
Factors, Rates and Ratios 10
Formulaic Estimating Method see Parametric Estimating Method
F-Test 477
Function Type 244–57; Generalised 256–7; logarithm 222–44; Standard 256–7
Function Type Identification 260–3; Bisection Technique 260–3; Generalised 259–60; Microsoft Excel Goal Seek 263–70; Microsoft Solver 263–70; Standard 259–60
Gamma Distribution 321, 399–406
Generalised Exponential Function see Exponential Function
Generalised Extreme Studentised Deviate (GESD) 477; see also Outlier Test
Generalised Logarithmic Function see Logarithmic Function
Generalised Power Function see Power Function
Geometric Mean 441, 478; see also Measures of Central Tendency
Good Practice Spreadsheet Modelling (GPSM) 9, 478
Grubbs’ Test 139–40, 478; see also Outlier Test
Halving Rule
Harmonic Mean 478; see also Measures of Central Tendency
Hypothesis Testing 11; Alternative Hypothesis 470; Null Hypothesis 156, 159–60, 162, 482; P-value 163–5, 169
Iglewicz and Hoaglin’s Modified Z-Score 478; see also Outlier Test
Indices 66–7, 478; Composite 472; Constant Year Value 473; Current Year Value 474; Laspeyres 479; Nominal Year Value 474; Paasche 482; Then Year Value 486; Outturn Year Value 486
Inferential Statistic 478; see also Descriptive Statistic
Inherent Risk in Spreadsheets (IRiS) 9, 478
Intercept 160
Interdecile Range 478; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 478; Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 478
Interquantile Range 478; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Interquartile Range 478; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Interquintile Range 479; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Laspeyres Index 479
Learning Curve 298, 319–21, 351–2, 479; Breakpoint 479; Cost Drivers 479; Segmentation 479; Step-point 479; Learning Exponent 479; Learning Rate and Learning Rate Multiplier 479; see also Quantity-based Learning Curves and Time-based Learning Curves
Least Squares: Error 94, 115–20, 381–406; Regression 479; Sum-to-Zero Properties 120–1; see also Residuals
Least Squares Regression 479
Leptokurtic or Leptokurtotic 479; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Linear Correlation 122–3, 473; Actual Cost (AC) 274–5; AT (Actual Time) 275; Earned Value (EV) 274–5; ES (Earned Schedule) 275; Pearson’s Linear Correlation Coefficient 482; see also Measures of Linearity, Dependence and Correlation; see also Rank Correlation
Linear Regression 154–5; Adjusted R-Square 154–5; Coefficient of Determination 141–9; Coefficient of Variation (CV) 172–4; Common Sense 171–2; Confidence Interval 179–92; degrees of freedom 149–55; F-Statistic 149–56; Goodness of Fit 140–79, 198, 203; Least Squares Error 115–20; Prediction Interval 179–92; Regression through the Origin 157, 162–71; R-Square 154; t-Statistic 156–62; Uncertainty 179–92; White’s Test 174–9
Linear Transformation 211–83, 288, 291–5, 299; choosing an option 254–7; Cumulative Value Disaggregation 279–81; EVM Disintegration 271–8; Microsoft Excel 237– 42; reversing the Linear Transformation 242–4, 293; see also Mathematical Transformation
Logarithm 212–22, 216–22, 479; Additive property 217–18; Common logs 216–18; Multiplicative property 217–19; Natural logs 216; Reciprocal property 219–20
Logarithmic Function 480; Generalised 245–8, 342–8; Linear Transformation 227–8; offset constant 245–8; reversing the Linear Transformation 230; Standard 225–30, 245–8
Lower and Upper Data Half Means 117
Mann-Whitney U-Test 480
Marching Army Technique 480
Mathematical Transformation: definition 4, 480; see also Logarithm
Maximum 480
MDAL (Master Data and Assumptions List) see ADORE
Mean Absolute Deviation see Average Absolute Deviation (AAD)
Measures of Central Tendency 10, 480
Measures of Dispersion and Shape 10, 480
Measures of Linearity, Dependence and Correlation 11
Median 181, 480; see also Measures of Central Tendency
Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) 480; see also Measures of Central Tendency
Memoryless Probability Distribution 480
Mesokurtic or Mesokurtotic 480; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Method see Estimating Method
Microsoft Excel 125–9, 133–6, 157; Data Analysis Add-in 125–9, 133–6, 157; Goal Seek 263–70; see also Microsoft Excel Functions and Microsoft Excel Solver
Microsoft Excel Functions AVERAGE 50, 170, 420, 463; BETA.DIST 395; CHISQ.DIST.RT 178; CHISQ.INV.RT 178; CORREL 130, 201; EXP 222; F.DIST. RT 152, 167; FORECAST 124, 128; GEOMEAN 432; GROWTH 295; INDEX 128, 136, 155, 201, 259, 296, 324, 362, 430, 433; INTERCEPT 124, 127, 424; LEN 190; LINEST 128, 131, 136–7, 154–5, 201, 259, 296–7, 324, 362; LN 222, 240; LOG 220, 222, 240; LOG10 220, 240; LOGEST 296–7, 430, 433; MAX 76; MEDIAN 420, 424; MIN 76; MINVERSE 188–9; MMULT 188–9; NORM.DIST 388, 395; PEARSON 131, 201; PERCENTILE.EXC 84; PERCENTILE.INC 84; QUARTILE. INC 381; RSQ 201, 262, 267, 323; SLOPE 124, 127, 422; STDEV.S 60, 76; SUM 170; SUMPRODUCT 55, 69, 187, 190, 192, 362, 400, 463; SUMSQ 170, 336, 463; T.DIST.2T 157; T.INV.2T 183–4, 186, 190; TRANSPOSE 188–9, 192; TREND 123–4, 128, 295
Microsoft Excel Solver 263–70, 338–57, 461–7; R-Square 267–9; Sum of Squares Error 267; TRACEability 263, 269
Minimum 480
Minimum Absolute Deviation 116–20
Missing values 47
Mode 181, 481; see also Measures of Central Tendency
Model Validation and Verification see individual terms: Validation and Verification
Monotonic function and monotonicity 15, 481
Monte Carlo Simulation 481
Moving Average 48–80, 481; comparison between simple and weighted 58–8; Missing values 49–50, 70–1; Moving Average of Moving Average 66–8; Moving Interval 48, 50–4, 58–66; Interval Difference Technique 58–66, 83; Moving Interval Lag 52–4, 56–8; Profiling Recurring Tasks 68–9; Simple 49, 50–4; Uncertainty Range 71–80; Weighted 49, 54–8; where and when to use them 49–50; see also Arithmetic Mean
Moving Geometric Mean 87, 481; see also Geometric Mean
Moving Harmonic Mean 87–8, 481; see also Harmonic Mean
Moving Maximum 71–4, 481; see also Maximum
Moving Median 81–5, 481; Missing values 84; Moving Interval 83; Uncertainty Range 84–5; see also Median
Moving Minimum 71–4, 481; see also Minimum
Moving Mode 88
Moving Standard Deviation 74–80, 481; see also Standard Deviation
Multicollinearity 160, 195–8, 303–5, 321, 454, 472, 481
Multi-linear or Multiple Linear Regression 129–37; Adjusted R-Square 146–9; Categorical Variable 131–3; degrees of freedom 146; Microsoft Excel 133–7; procedure 443
Multi-Variant Learning 481
Naperian logs see Natural logs
Natural logs 216; Euler’s Number 216
Net Present Value (NPV) 482; see also Discounted Cash Flow
Nominal Year Value see Current Year Value
Nonlinear Curve Fitting 399–406; Continuous Probability Distribution 391–9; Discrete Probability Distribution 381–92; Least Squares 381–406
Nonlinear Function combinations 300–22; combined Exponential and Power Transformations 320–2; combined Linear and Logarithmic Transformations 306–7; Multiple Exponential Transformations 312–16; Multiple Logarithmic Transformations 302; Multiple Power Transformations 316–22
Nonlinear Regression 284–379; Exponential Function 291–7; Generalised Nonlinear Function 337–59; Geometric Mean 285–7; Goodness of Fit 287, 333–7; Logarithm 284–300; Logarithmic Function 288–91; Nonlinear Function combinations 300–22; Polynomial Function 359–78; Power Function 298–9; Quadratic Curve 361–8; reversing the Linear Transformation 299–300; Stepwise Regression 322–33
Norden-Rayleigh Curve 482
Normal Distribution 75–6, 79, 386–92, 395–6
Normality Test 479; Jarque-Bera Test 479
Null Hypothesis see Hypothesis Testing
offset constant 257–70; finding the best fit 257–70
Open Interval 482; see also Closed Interval
Opportunity 482; see also Risk and Uncertainty
Optimism Bias 482
Ordinary Least Squares Regression see Simple Linear Regression
Outlier 482; Regression 138–41
Outlier Tests 11
Outturn Year Value see Then Year Value
Paasche Index 482
parameter relevance see t-Statistic
Parametric Estimating Method 482
Payback Period 482; see also Discounted Cash Flow
Pearson’s Linear Correlation Coefficient 482
pedagogical features 2–7; Caveat Augur 5–6; definition 3–4; Excel functions and facilities 6–7; Formula-philes 4–5; Formula-phobes 5; references 7; Worked Examples 6
Peirce’s Criterion 482; see also Outlier Test
Percentiles 482; see also Deciles, Quantiles, Quartiles and Quintiles; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Planned Value (PV) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Platykurtic or Platykurtotic 483; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Polynomial trend 242
powers 213–22; additive property 213–16; multiplicative property 213–16
Power Function 483; combined Exponential and Power Transformations 299; Generalised 250–4, 351–7; Linear Transformation 233–6; offset constant 250–3; Reciprocal 253–4; reversing the Linear Transformation 236–7; Standard 233–7, 250–3; see also Logarithm
Precision 483; see also Accuracy and 3-Point Estimate
Prediction Interval 288–90, 295, 299, 319–20, 374–8, 484
predictive power see Adjusted R-Square
Primary Data 483; see also Data Type
Primary Drivers 483; see also Secondary Drivers
Probability Density Function (PDF) 483
Probability Distribution 10–11, 473; Continuous 473; Discrete 475
Probability Mass Function (PMF) 483
Probability of Occurrence 483; see also Risk and Opportunity
P-value see t-Statistic
Quadratic Curve and Equation 21–32, 34–43, 279–81; cumulative difference property 39–43; General Solution 36–7, 361–9; missing values 42–3
Quadratic Mean 136, 483 see also Root Mean Square; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Quadratic Smoothing see Cumulative Smoothing
Qualitative Techniques 10
Quantiles 382–3, 483; see also Deciles, Percentiles, Quartiles and Quintiles; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Quantity-based Learning Curve 11–12, 483; Equivalent Unit Learning 12, 476; Learning Curve Cost Driver Segmentation 11–12; Multi-Variant Learning 12; Unlearning and Re-learning 12
Quartiles 483; see also Median; see also Deciles, Percentiles, Quantiles, Quartiles and Quintiles; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Queueing Theory 483
Quintiles 483; see also Deciles, Percentiles, Quantiles and Quartiles; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Quotations see a word (or two) from the wise
Range 483
Rank Correlation 483; Kendall’s Tau Rank Correlation Coefficient 479
Real Year Value 484
References 14, 44, 112, 210, 283, 379, 406, 469
Regression Analysis 113–21, 484; Outliers 138–40; see also Linear Regression, Multiple Linear Regression, Nonlinear Regression and Simple Linear Regression
Regression Confidence Interval see Confidence Interval
Regression parameters 157–9; Confidence Interval 157–9
Regression Prediction Interval see Prediction Interval
Residual Risk Exposure 484; see also Risk Exposure
Risk 484
Risk and Opportunity Ranking Factor 484
Risk Exposure 484; see also Residual Risk Exposure
Risk Uplift Factors 484
Rolling Average see Moving Average
Rolling Mean see Moving Average
Root Mean Square see also Quadratic Mean
R-Square (Regression) 165, 167–70, 237–41, 257–9, 279–82, 337–60, 456, 460, 484 see also Coefficient of Determination and Adjusted R-Square
Schedule Maturity Assessment (SMA) 485
Schedule Performance Index (SPI(t)): Time Impact 276–8; see also EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Schedule Performance Index (SPI): Cost Impact see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Schedule Variance (SV(t)): Time Impact see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Schedule Variance (SV): Cost Impact see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Seasonal variation: Binary Switch 444–5, 450–1, 453, 456
Secondary Data 485; see also Data Type and Primary Driver
Series overview 1–14; see also Volume Overviews
Simple Linear Regression 122–9; Microsoft Excel 123–9
Skewness Coefficient 485
Slipping and Sliding Technique 485
slope 160
Solver see Microsoft Excel Solver
Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient 485
Spreadsheet Validation and Verification 485; see also individual terms: Validation and Verification
Standard Deviation 485; Population 485; Sample 58–66, 485
Standard Error 485
Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE) 333–6
Standing Army Technique see Marching Army Technique
Stanford-B Unit Learning Curve 485; see also Quantity-based Learning Curve
Statistics 485
Stepwise Regression 193–209, 446–8, 449, 454, 486; Backward Elimination 193, 197–201, 206–8, 310, 323–30; Choice of regression model 208–9; Choice of technique 206–8; Forward Selection 193, 201–5, 206–8, 330–3; see also Regression Analysis
straight line 19–20; difference property 19–20; linear properties 15–20, 18–19, 19–20; nonlinear properties 21–6, 21–43, 26–33, 34–43, 361–7; parameters 15–17
Student’s t-Distribution 180–5
Sum of Squares Error 257
Tertiary Data 486; see also Data Type
Then Year Value 486; see also Indices
Three-Point Estimate see 3-Point Estimate
Tightness of Fit see Coefficient of Variation (CV)
Time Series Analysis 407–69, 486; Additive/Subtractive 412–13, 444–52; Classical Decomposition 415–43; Classical Decomposition Method 472; Cyclical variation 408–10; Exponential trend 449–52; Linear trend 444–5, 449–56; Microsoft Excel 461–8; Multi-linear Regression 443–61; Multiplicative 413–15, 449–60; procedure 411, 462–5; Residual variation 409–10; Seasonal Data 81; Seasonal variation 408–11; Trend 408–11, 415–20
Time-Based Learning Curve 11, 486; Time-Constant Learning Curve 486; Time-Performance Learning Curve 486; see also Quantity-based Learning Curve
TRACEability 9, 66, 138, 175, 256, 342, 344, 359, 487
Transformation see Mathematical Transformation
Trend Analysis 45–112; batch size effects 46, 47–8; characteristics 45–8; Missing values 47–8; non-time-based 47; where and when to use it 45–8
Trend Smoothing 45–112; with Cumulative and Cumulative Average 96–111; with Exponential Smoothing 89–96; with Moving Averages 48–80; with Moving Medians 81–5; with other Moving Measures 85–8; see also Trend Analysis
Trendlines: Exponential 237–41; Linear 237–41; Logarithmic 237–41; Polynomial 242; Power 237–41; see also Time Series Analysis
Trusted Source Estimating Method 487
t-Statistic; Adjusted R-Square 160; F-Statistic 156, 160; P-value 157; R-Square 156, 160
t-Test 487
Tukey Fences 139, 487; see also Outlier Test
Type I Error (False Positive) 487
Type II Error (False Negative) 487
Uncertainty 487; Cone of Uncertainty 472
Uniform Distribution 75–6, 79, 393–5
Validation 487; see also Verification
Variance 487; Population 487; Sample 488
Verification 488; see also Validation
White’s Test 174–9; Chi-Squared Distribution 176, 178; F-Statistic 178; P-value 177–8
Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney U-Test see Mann-Whitney U-Test
word (or two) from the wise 3, 13, 27, 38, 43, 53, 97, 172, 211, 284, 380, 407
Wright’s Cumulative Average Learning Curve 488; see also Quantity-based Learning Curve
Z-Score 488
Z-Test 488