© Scott E. Donaldson, Stanley G. Siegel, Chris K. Williams, Abdul Aslam 2018
Scott E. Donaldson, Stanley G. Siegel, Chris K. Williams and Abdul AslamEnterprise Cybersecurity Study Guidehttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4842-3258-3_15

15. Looking to the Future

Scott E. Donaldson, Stanley G. Siegel2, Chris K. Williams3 and Abdul Aslam3
(1)
Falls Church, Virginia, USA
(2)
Potomac, Maryland, USA
(3)
San Diego, California, USA
 

Overview

  • This study guide describes a pragmatic framework for managing a cohesive enterprise cybersecurity program that
    • ties together architecture, policy, programmatics, IT life cycle, and assessments into a single framework.
    • aligns functional areas with real-world skills of cybersecurity professionals, and operational budgets, and cybersecurity technologies.
      • Functional areas enable easy delegation and reporting of status at an abstraction layer suitable for executive consumption.
      • Functional areas support the business decision-making process for strategy and prioritization.
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  • While this framework may provide a successful cyberdefense today, attackers and defenders are not standing still.
  • Cybersecurity challenges and technologies continue to evolve quickly.
  • This chapter examines how this cybersecurity framework may evolve in the future.

Generations of Weapons Systems

Context

  • Jet fighters since WWII are often grouped into generations.
  • Each generation represents a leap forward in capability and renders the previous generations obsolete.
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Generations of Malware

Context

  • Malware can also be grouped into generations.
  • Subsequent generations reflect increases in capability and threat.
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Generations of Cyberdefense

Context

  • Cyberattacks and defenses can be characterized as generations.
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Topics

  • The Power of Enterprise Cybersecurity Architecture
  • Evolution of Cyberattack and Defense
  • Evolving Enterprise Cybersecurity over Time
  • Final Thoughts

The Power of Enterprise Cybersecurity Architecture

  • Policy
    • Policy can be orga nized using enterprise cybersecurity functional areas.
    • Policy helps to ensure comprehensive coverage of enterprise cybersecurity with clear policy statements.
  • People
    • Functional areas align closely with actual skill sets of technical staff and team leaders.
    • Technical staff and cybersecurity leadership are positioned for success in their areas.
    • Functional areas also align well with typical organizational boundaries for matrixed teams where cybersecurity policy and enforcement might be separated from technical implementation and operations.
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  • Budget
    • Functional areas align well with policy and organizational structures.
    • Cybersecurity leadership can allocate operational and project funding among functional areas to ensure people, budget, and technology are all coordinated.
  • Technology
    • Functional areas align well with the capabilities of many security technologies.
  • Strategy
    • Functional areas w ere designed with the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) framework in mind.
    • IT strategy and architecture can be planned using the functional areas to help ensure a well-integrated overall solution.
  • Engineering
    • Functional areas align well with typical engineering boundaries for system design, deployment, support, and retirement activities.
  • Operations
    • Cybersecurity operations can be performed in an integrated fashion across the functional areas to ensure all aspects of security operations are well coordinated.
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  • Assessment
    • Functional areas provide a straightforward framework for quantitatively ass essing the cybersecurity program, measuring its quality over time, and reporting against external frameworks.

Evolution of Cyberattack and Defense

Context

  • Over time, attacker sophistication increases.
    • Casual Attackers
      • Use professional attacke r capabilities when they become mainstream
      • Use them for opportunistic ends
        • Disrupt operations
        • Explore private enterprises and their data
        • Make political statements
    • Professional Attackers
      • Take nation-state attacke r techniques and commercialize them for use on industrial scales
        • Espionage, Blackmail
        • Larceny, Identify Theft
    • Nation-State Attackers
      • Have greatest amoun t of sophistication
      • Generally are the trailblazers of the most sophisticated and devastating cyberattacks
  • Cyberattacks and cyberdefenses can be grouped into discrete generations of cybersecurity.
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  • Cyberattack generations represent a leap forward in capability that is almost completely effective against previous cyberdefense generations.
    • Generation 1: Hardening the Host
    • Generation 2: Protecting the Network
    • Generation 3: Layered Defense and Active Response
    • Generation 4: Automated Response
    • Generation 5: Biological Defense

Before the Internet

  • Before the Internet,
    • there was the Advanced Research Agency Network (ARPANET), but
    • the network was small and not designed with security in mind.
  • As ARPANET got larger,
    • users started putting passwords on computers and networking protocols;
    • cybersecurity was not robust; and
    • “Good-fences-make-good neighbors” security was used as everyone was trusted.
  • At the same time,
    • personal computers had little to no security; and
    • early viruses ran rampant propagating from machine to machine via “floppy disks” and other media.
  • Since personal computerization was not interconnected and essentially being used as advanced typewriters and calculators, not much was at stake.

Generation 1: Hardening the H ost

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Generation 2: Protecting the Network

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Generation 3: Layered Defense and Active Response

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Generation 4: Automated Response

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Generation 5: Biological Defense

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Cybergenerations Moving Down Market

  • Cyberattack generations move down market over time.
  • Cyberattack techniques become cheaper and more widely used over time.
  • Generation 5 cyberattacks are solely in the domain of advanced nation-state attackers. However, it is realistic to expect that
    • five years from now, these techniques will be used by other nation-state attackers; and
    • ten years from now, these techniques might be used by everyday professional cybercriminals.
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  • Generation 3 cyberattacks that are causing trouble for commercial industries today were being commonly used by nation-state attackers only five years ago.
    • Five years from now, these cyberattack tools and techniques will likely be in the hands of casual hackers.
  • Enterprises must be aware of these trends and try to stay ahea d of them.

Future Cybersecurity Evolution

  • New generations of attacks will be extremely effective against older generations of defenses.
  • Defenses cannot simply skip a generation and jump straight to advanced defensive techniques.
  • Each successive generation of defenses builds upon the previous generation of defensive technologies.
  • Most of today’s compliance frameworks to assess cybersecurity effectiveness were designed around the Generation 2 model of perimeter defenses and endpoint protection.
  • Such compliance models only go so far in thwarting professional attackers using Generations 3, 4, and 5 capabilities.
  • Upgrading these frameworks is essential to confronting Generations 3, 4, and 5 attack techniques.
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  • Defenses build upon on another.
    • Generation 5: Host, Network, Detection, Response, Analytics
    • Generation 4: Host, Network, Detection, Response
    • Generation 3: Host, Network, Detection
    • Generation 2: Host, Network
    • Generation 1: Host

Evolving Enterprise Cybersecurity over Time

Context

  • Cybersecurity is constantly and rapidly evolving.
  • An enterprise’s cybersecurity architecture needs to keep pace with this evolution.
  • This study guide’s enterprise cybersecurity architecture is designed as a framework for managing a cybersecurity program over time.
  • To date, the framework has proven itself to be effective while also accommodating changing situations and needs.
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  • In the future, the framework will continue to evolve and mature regarding the following factors:
    • Enterprise Cybersecurity Implementation Considerations
    • Tailoring Cybersecurity Assessments
    • Evolution of Enterprise Cybersecurity Capabilities
    • Evolution of Enterprise Cybersecurity Functional Areas

Enterprise Cybersecurity Implementation Considerations

  • Cybersecurity practitio ners can use this study guide’s framework to organize and measure
    • real-world cyberthreats,
    • cyberdefense capabilities, and
    • day-to-day cybersecurity operations.
  • The framework is designed to
    • accommodate a wide spectrum of enterprise cybersecurity configurations;
    • manage and communicate challenges; and
    • summarize the richness and nuance of the underlying reality.
  • The major goal is to
    • help enterprise leaders and practitioners represent real-world complexity effectively so that they can make informed strategic and tactical decisions.
  • Implementation considerations include
    • functional areas that app ly to a wide range of enterprise types, buy that may need to be modified to meet an enterprise’s needs.
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    • Functional areas are approximately equal in importance so the enterprise does not rely too much on a single set of cybersecurity capabilities for enterprise protection.
    • Enterprise cybersecurity capabilities are not and will never be perfectly complete; each enterprise should add, remove, or tailor capabilities as needed.
    • Functional areas help align cybersecurity capabilities to policies, programmatics, IT life cycle, and assessments; however, the alignment should reflect how the enterprise prefers to operate.
    • The framework is not perfect; however, it is comprehensive, integrated, and adapt able.

Tailoring Cybersecurity Assessments

  • The enterprise cybersecurity frame work works well for conducting a cybersecurity program assessment.
  • By considering risk mitigations, cybersecurity capabilities (grouped by functional areas), and security operations side-by-side, assessment results align closely with an enterprise’s real-world cybersecurity effectiveness.
  • By using a hierarchy of risk mitigations, functional areas, capabilities, and underlying technologies, assessments can be performed at numerous levels to provide high-level results quickly and detailed results progressively.
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  • By organizing an enterprise cybersecurity program into functional areas, assessment results are already aligned with the way policy, programmatics, IT life cycle, and operations are organized.
  • This alignment enables immediate delegation and assignment of resulting recommendations to appropriate teams for execution.
  • The cybersecurity capabilities presented are meant as a starting point for consideration.
    • New technologies may deliver new capabilities for cybersecurity.
    • Such information should be incorporated into an enterprise’s cybersecurity framework for assessment and evaluation.
  • Object Measurement can be used to quantitatively measure cybersecurity program effectiveness.
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  • This measurement approach provides a direct correlation between an enterprise’s risk analysis and its level of protection.
  • Value scales and resulting metrics help p oint to potential weaknesses that cyberattackers could use as attack vectors.
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Evolution of Enterprise Cybersecurity Capabilities

  • It is difficult to envision today what cybersecurity capabilities might look like ten years in the future.
  • The enterprise cybersecurity framework will continue evolving along with the strategic challenges of managing complexity in an increasingly interconnected world.
  • Enterprise cybersecurity changes may include the following:
    • Valid security capabilities should be considered and added to the framework as necessary.
    • New security technologies may or may not fit easily into the existing functional areas.
    • A single technology may provide multiple capabilities falling into different functional areas; enterprises will need to decide where to house the technology.
    • Over time, security capabilities may merge into a single, integrated capability or split into multiple sub-capabilities.
    • Existing capabilities may be superseded by other capabilities, fall out of favor, or simply bec ome obsolete.

Evolution of Enterprise Functional Areas

  • All of an enterprise’s cyberse curity should be divided up into functional areas, and capabilities within those functional areas, so everything is accounted for and nothing is missed.
  • Over time, the functional areas will continue to evolve.
    • As capabilities are added to the architecture, functional area definitions may need adjustments to continue providing clear lines of delineation for organizing policies, people, programmatics, IT life cycle, and assessments.
    • As cybersecurity technologies and practices evolve, there may be a marked shift in the importance of different functional areas.
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    • The framework was designed to address the needs of Generations 3, 4, and 5 cyberdefenses, but cloud and BYOD are straining enterprise c ybersecurity methodologies, technologies, and practices.
    • Innovations and paradigm shifts might prompt future adjustments.
    • Over time, the framework will need to evolve to remain relevant and effective.

Final Thoughts

  • This study guide presents a number of key ideas and methodologies for dealing with modern enterprise cybersecurity challenges.
    • Management techniques for facing those challenges
    • Coherent, integrated cybersecurity framework suitable for an enterprise ranging from a few dozen employees to hundreds of thousands of employees
    • Techniques for applying this cybersecurity program framework against modern adversaries
  • Ideas and methodologies are not theoretical, but represent real-world experience and work across a wide range of enterprise situations.
    • Clients ranging from the US Federal Government to the US Department of Defense to commercial customers (small nonprofits to large multinationals)
  • Organizing cybersecurity into functional areas makes it possible to manage most aspects of a cybersecurity program under one convenient and coherent framework.
    • Policy, people, budget, technology, architecture, engineering, operations, and assessments
  • Cyberattack and cyberdefense generations provide a context for considering cyberthreats at a strategic level.
    • Technology evolves on a continuous basis, but it is helpful to use generation groupings to characterize different levels of cyberattack sophistication and the corresponding cyberdefenses.
  • The cybersecurity industry is in throes of a generational shift going from Generation 2 to Generation 3.
    • Within the next decade, a similar shift will occur to get to Generation 4 defenses, and then to Generation 5 defenses.
    • By the time Generation 5 defenses are commonplace, there will be 6th and 7th Generation attacks to defend against.
  • As computers have risen in power and capability, and their capability has been multiplied through networking, the threats against these systems have risen as quickly as the capability.
  • Computers and networked systems are becoming mission critical.
    • Airline and financial industries stop when their computers go down.
    • Over the next 20 years, this mission-critical reliance will occur in almost every area of business and government.
    • Over the next 30 years, computers will have to achieve a level of resilience where they do not go down, even in the face of severe crises from adversaries, criminals, or natural disasters.
  • Looking back at the past 30 years of information technology, it is mind-boggling how information technology has transformed our lives.
    • Today’s children cannot conceive of televisions that aren’t large and flat, of typewriters that only put words on paper, or of mobile devices that don’t have instant access to most knowledge on Earth.
  • Let’s work together to keep these machines and ourselves safe for the next 30 years.
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