NOTES

PART I: HOW WE GOT TO THE PRECIPICE

1. These ideas were first developed jointly with my colleague Colm Kelly; see Colm Kelly and Blair Sheppard, “Common Purpose: Realigning Business, Economies, and Society,” Strategy + Business, May 25, 2017, https://www.strategy-business.com/author?author=Colm+Kelly. Kelly focuses on how we rethink economics and better link social good to economic success; see Kelly and Sheppard, “Creating Common Purpose,” PwC, 2018, https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/assets/pdf/pwc-creating-common-purpose-2018-global-solutions.pdf (accessed February 4, 2020).

Chapter 1 What Worries Us

1. “Amit Chandra Becomes a Voice for Philanthropy,” The Bridgespan Group, October 11, 2016, https://www.bridgespan.org/insights/library/remarkable-givers/profiles/amit-chandra-voice-for-philanthropy.

2. For a summary of this work, see Blair Sheppard and Ceri-Ann Droog, “A Crisis of Legitimacy,” Strategy + Business, June 5, 2019, https://www.strategy-business.com/article/A-crisis-of-legitimacy.

3. UBS and PwC, Billionaires Insights 2018.

4. OECD, The Squeezed Middle Class in OECD and Emerging Countries: Myth and Reality, December 2016.

5. International Labour Organization, Global Wage Report, various years.

6. Alicia Hall, “Trends in Home Ownership in Australia: A Quick Guide,” Parliament of Australia, June 28, 2017, https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/Quick_Guides/TrendsHomeOwnership.

7. Elisa Shearer, “Social Media Outpaces Print Newspapers in the US as a News Source,” Pew Research, December 10, 2018, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/12/10/social-media-outpaces-print-newspapers-in-the-u-s-as-a-news-source/.

8. Oliver Milman, “Defiant Mark Zuckerberg Defends Facebook Policy to Allow False Ads,” The Guardian, December 2, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/dec/02/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-policy-fake-ads.

9. David Marquand, “The People Is Sublime: The Long History of Populism, from Robespierre to Trump,” The New Statesman, July 24, 2017.

Chapter 2 Assymetry and the Crisis of Prosperity

1. Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Free Press, 1992).

2. “Hamilton Population,” World Population Review, http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/hamilton-population/ (accessed February 21, 2020).

3. For example, Hamilton was chosen as one of twenty-one smart cities by the Intelligent Community Forum. See Rodney Barnes, “Hamilton among the ICF’s Smart21 Communities of 2020,” October 27, 2019, https://softwarehamilton.com/2019/10/27/hamilton-among-the-icfs-smart21-communities-of-2020/. Bob Young, the founder of Red Hat and Lulu, hails from Hamilton.

4. “A Brief History of Ontarian Wine,” Niagara Vintage Wine Tours blog, https://www.niagaravintagewinetours.com/a-brief-history-of-ontarian-wine/ (accessed February 21, 2020).

5. “Property Prices in Berlin,” Numbeo, https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/in/Berlin (accessed February 21, 2020).

6. “Moscow Real Estate Prices among World’s Fastest-Growing,” Moscow Times, April 12, 2019.

7. “Two-thirds of U.K. Students Will Never Pay Off Debt,” Financial Times, July 4, 2016.

8. “America Can Fix Its Student Loan Crisis. Just Ask Australia,” New York Times, July 9, 2016.

9. “Pension Participation of All Workers by Type of Plan, 1989–2016,” Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Pension-coverage.pdf (accessed February 21, 2020).

10. GOBankingRanks survey 2018, updated on September 23, 2019, https://www.gobankingrates.com/retirement/planning/why-americans-will-retire-broke/.

11. “Russia Population 2020,” World Population Review, http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/russia-population/ (accessed February 21, 2020).

12. “China’s AI Push Raises Fears over Widespread Job Cuts,” Financial Times, August 30, 2018.

Chapter 3 Disruption and the Crisis of Technology

1. For a good and entertaining discussion of massive disruptions in history, see Dan Carlin, The End Is Always Near: Apocalyptic Moments, from the Bronze Age Collapse to Nuclear Near Misses (New York: HarperCollins, 2019).

2. One interesting example is the ongoing debate between Elon Musk and Bill Gates about the risks of artificial intelligence. See “Bill Gates: I Do Not Agree with Elon Musk about AI,” CNBC, September 25, 2017, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/bill-gates-disagrees-with-elon-musk-we-shouldnt-panic-about-a-i.html.

3. Two fairly engaging treatments of the predominance of a few platform companies and their larger consequences are Scott Galloway, The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google (New York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2017); and Martin Moore and Damian Tambini, Digital Dominance: The Power of Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple (New York: Oxford University Press, 2018).

4. See Robert H. Frank and Phil J. Cook, Winner Take All Society: Why the Few at the Top Get So Much More Than the Rest of Us (New York: Penguin Books, 1995).

5. For a recent summary of this idea, see Philip Cooke, Knowledge Economies: Clusters, Leaning and Cooperative Advantage (London: Routledge, 2002).

6. “States of Growth: Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Fastest-Growing Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala Bring Up the Rear,” CRISIL, January 2018, https://www.crisil.com/content/dam/crisil/our-analysis/reports/Research/documents/2017/CRISIL-Research-Insight-States-of-growth.pdf.

7. Richard Edelman, quoted in “Upskilling: Bridging the Digital Divide,” PwC, December 1, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HE43CFLiag&feature=youtu.be&list=PLnF8iaZwgjXnfrw-iTrzax7v0upMisodt.

8. C. Frey and M. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation,” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, 2013.

9. “How Will Automation Impact Jobs?,” PwC, https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/the-impact-of-automation-on-jobs.html (accessed February 20, 2020).

10. Frey’s book is a comprehensive and compelling look at the intermediate consequences of the Industrial Revolution and its implications for the world we are entering. See Carl Benedikt Frey, The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019).

11. D. Zissis and D. Lekkas, “Addressing Cloud Computing Security Issues,” Future Generation Computing Systems 28, no. 3 (March 2012): 583–92.

12. “Big Brother Is Watching: How China Is Compiling Computer Ratings on ALL Its Citizens,” South China Morning Post, November 24, 2015, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1882533/big-brother-watching-how-china-compiling-computer.

13. For a good general discussion of why people are more preoccupied with bad than good, see Roy F. Baumeister, Ellen Bratslavsky, Catrin Finkenauer, et al., “Bad Is Stronger Than Good,” Sage Journals, December 1, 2001, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1037/1089-2680.5.4.323.

14. Mike Allen, “Sean Parker Unloads on Facebook,” Axios, November 9, 2017, https://www.axios.com/sean-parker-unloads-on-facebook-god-only-knows-what-its-doing-to-our-childrens-brains-1513306792-f855e7b4-4e99-4d60-8d51-2775559c2671.html.

15. Adam Gazzaley and Larry Rosen, The Distracted Mind: Ancient Brains in a High-Tech World (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2016), 115.

16. Gazzaley and Rosen, Distracted Mind, 116.

17. “About Max Tegmark,” Future of Life Institute, https://futureoflife.org/author/max/ (accessed February 20, 2020).

Chapter 4 Trust and the Crisis of Institutional Legitimacy

1. Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996).

2. “Fourth Estate,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Estate (accessed February 20, 2020).

3. Pew Research, “Trusting the News Media in the Trump Era,” surveys conducted between November 27 and December 10, 2018, and February 19 and March 2, 2019, https://www.journalism.org/2019/12/12/highly-engaged-partisans-have-starkly-different-views-of-the-news-media/.

4. “Media Companies Dominate Most Divisive Brands List, and It Keeps Getting Worse,” Morning Consult, October 1, 2019, https://morningconsult.com/2019/10/01/polarizing-brands-2019/.

5. Amy Mitchell, Jeffrey Gottfried, Jocelyn Kiley, and Katerina Eva Matsa, “Political Polarization and Media Habits,” Pew Research Center, October 21, 2014, https://www.journalism.org/2014/10/21/political-polarization-media-habits/.

6. Justin McCurry, “Trade Wars, Tweets, and Western Liberalism: G20 Summit Wraps Up in Osaka,” Guardian, June 29, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/29/g20-summit-osaka-japan-trade-wars-liberalism.

7. John Gerald Ruggie, Multilateralism Matters: The Theory and Praxis of Institutional Form (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993).

8. Chichun Fang, “Growing Wealth Gaps in Education,” Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, June 20, 2018, https://www.src.isr.umich.edu/blog/growing-wealth-gaps-in-education/; and D. D. Guttenplan, “Measuring the Wealth Effect in Education,” New York Times, December 2, 2013, https://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/02/world/europe/measuring-the-wealth-effect-in-education.html.

9. Revenue Stats 2019: Tax Revenue Trends in the OECD, OECD, https://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/revenue-statistics-highlights-brochure.pdf (accessed February 20, 2020).

Chapter 5 Polarization and the Crisis of Leadership

1. “Species and Climate Change,” IUCN, https://www.iucn.org/theme/species/our-work/species-and-climate-change (accessed February 21, 2020); “Climate Change,” Great Barrier Reef Foundation, https://www.barrierreef.org/the-reef/the-threats/climate-change (accessed February 20, 2020); Scott A. Kulp and Benjamin H. Strauss, “New Elevation Data Triple Estimates of Global Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding,” Nature Communications, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z; and Ellen Gray and Jessica Merzdorf, “Earth’s Freshwater Future: Extremes of Flood and Drought,” NASA, June 13, 2019, https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/earth-s-freshwater-future-extremes-of-flood-and-drought.

2. Ellen Gray, “Unexpected Future Boost of Methane Possible from Arctic Permafrost,” NASA, August 20, 2018, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost/.

3. Erik C. Nisbet, Kathryn E. Cooper, and R. Kelly Garrett, “The Partisan Brain: How Dissonant Science Messages Lead Conservatives and Liberals to (Dis)Trust Science,” American Academy of Political and Social Science, February 8, 2015.

4. Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt, “The Coddling of the American Mind,” The Atlantic (September 2015), https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/09/the-coddling-of-the-american-mind/399356/.

5. “Climate Action Tracker,” https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/ (accessed February 20, 2020).

6. William Forster Lloyd, “Two Lectures on the Checks to Population,” 1833.

Chapter 6 Age, Accelerating the Four Crises

1. “Japan’s Glut of Abandoned Homes: Hard To Sell but Bargains When Opportunity Knocks,” Japan Times, December 26, 2017.

2. “Japan’s Glut of Abandoned Homes.”

3. The World Factbook, CIA, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/343rank.html (accessed February 20, 2020).

4. The World Factbook 2020 (Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2020), https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/index.html.

5. “Future of India: The Winning Leap,” PwC, https://www.pwc.com/sg/en/publications/assets/future-of-india-the-winning-leap.pdf (accessed February 20, 2020).

6. Council on Foreign Relations, “The State of US Infrastructure,” January 12, 2018.

7. OECD Health Statistics, 2018; PwC analysis.

PART II: CONQUERING THE CRISES

Chapter 7 Strategy: Rethinking Economic Growth—Local First

1. Colm Kelly and Blair Sheppard, “Common Purpose Realigning Business Economies and Societies,” Strategy + Business, May 25, 2017, https://www.strategy-business.com/feature/Common-Purpose-Realigning-Business-Economies-and-Society?gko=d465f.

2. Kelly and Sheppard, “Common Purpose Realigning Business Economies and Societies.”

3. “Tatev Revival,” IDeA Foundation, https://www.idea.am/tatev-revival-project (accessed February 20, 2020).

4. “Aurora Humanitarian Initiative,” IDeA Foundation, https://www.idea.am/aurora (accessed February 20, 2020).

Chapter 8 Strategy: Reimagining Success—Thriving in a Broken World

1. PwC, “22nd Annual Global CEO Survey,” 2019, https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2019/report/pwc-22nd-annual-global-ceo-survey.pdf (accessed March 9, 2019).

2. T. Plate, Conversations with Lee Kuan Yew, Citizen Singapore: How To Build a Nation (Singapore: Marshall Cavendish, 2010), 46–47.

3. Stuart Anderson, “International Students Are Founding America’s Great Startups,” Forbes, Nov. 5, 2018; www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2018/11/05/international-students-are-founding-americas-great-startups/#754059e65568

Chapter 9 Structure: Repairing Failing Institutions—Cementing the Foundations

1. A full-blown discussion of institutions and debates about them would take a book. For those who are interested, you might begin with Vivien Lowndes and Mark Roberts, Why Institutions Matter: The New Institutionalism in Political Science (London: Red Globe Press, 2013).

2. As a starting point for a review of change management, it is worth going to the person I consider the greatest authority: John P. Kotter, Leading Change (Boston: Harvard Business Press, 2012).

3. “Prof. Dennis J. Snower, Ph.D.,” Global Solutions: World Policy Forum, https://www.global-solutions.international/cv-snower (accessed February 20, 2020).

4. Dennis Snower, “G20 Summit Was More Successful Than You Think,” G20 Insights, July 11, 2017, https://www.g20-insights.org/2017/07/11/g20-summit-successful-think/.

5. It was through this process that I first got to know Dennis. He heard of the work my colleague Colm Kelly and I were engaged in and sought our input on the creation of the initial narrative and the design and ongoing operation of the Global Solutions Summit. The core ideas of our work are captured in Kelly and Sheppard, “Common Purpose: Realigning Business, Economies, and Society,” Strategy + Business, May 25, 2017, https://www.strategy-business.com/feature/Common-Purpose-Realigning-Business-Economies-and-Society?gko=d465f.

6. “President Dennis J. Snower’s Opening Address at the Global Solutions Initiative,” June 5, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8sstzOUYtg.

7. C. Stewart Gillmor, Fred Terman at Stanford: Building a Discipline, a University, and Silicon Valley (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004).

Chapter 10 Culture: Refreshing Technology—Innovation as a Social Good

1. Pew Research, “Automation in Everyday Life,” survey conducted between May 1 and 15, 2017, https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2017/10/04/americans-attitudes-toward-a-future-in-which-robots-and-computers-can-do-many-human-jobs/.

2. Satya Nadella, Greg Shaw, and Jill Tracie Nichols, Hit Refresh: The Quest To Rediscover Microsoft’s Soul and Imagine a Better Future for Everyone (San Francisco: HarperCollins, 2017).

3. George Gilder, Life after Google: The Fall of Big Data and the Rise of the Blockchain Economy (Latham, MD: Regnery Gateway, 2018).

4. “What Is Responsible AI,” PwC, https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/data-and-analytics/artificial-intelligence/what-is-responsible-ai/responsible-ai-practical-guide.pdf (accessed February 20, 2020).

5. World Health Organization, Depression and Other Common Mental Disorders: Global Health Estimates (Geneva: WHO, 2017).

6. Alison Abbott, “Gaming Improves Multitasking Skills,” Nature, September 4, 2013, https://www.nature.com/news/gaming-improves-multitasking-skills-1.13674.

Chapter 11 Massive and Fast—Problems That Cannot Wait

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch (accessed February 20, 2020).

2. Glenn Hubbard and William Duggan, “The Forgotten Lessons of the Marshall Plan,” Strategy + Business (Summer 2008), https://www.strategy-business.com/article/08203?gko=4209e.

3. Global Alliance for Mass Entrepreneurship, https://massentrepreneurship.org (accessed February 20, 2020).

4. Kenichi Ohmae, “The Rise of the Region State,” Foreign Affairs, March 1, 1993, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1993-03-01/rise-region-state.

5. Smart Africa, https://smartafrica.org (accessed February 20, 2020).

6. John M. Logsdon, “John F. Kennedy’s Space Legacy and Its Lessons for Today,” Issues in Science and Technology 27 (3): 29–34.

7. “Twenty Things We Wouldn’t Have without Space Travel” (infographic), Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology, https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/infographics/infographic.view.php?id=11358 (accessed February 20, 2020).

8. Paul Hawken, Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming (New York: Penguin Books, 2017).