Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Copyright

Dedication

Preface

Acknowledgments

List of figures, table and case studies

About the authors

Chapter 1: What are scenarios?

The future is not linear

What is the value of scenarios?

The future impacting on libraries

What is the future and does science fiction predict the future?

Change

An initial view of the Internet

Change of attitudes toward the future

Development of scenarios as a discipline

Chapter 2: The complexities of our informational environment

This chapter

What is the environment?

Libraries and their environments

Disruptive technologies

Broad disruptive technological impact on libraries

Issues in the wider environment

Open source

Open source implications

Digital content

Digital content implications

The author–publisher–library relationship

Content balance

The future of work

Implications for the future of work

Emerging trends

Chapter 3: The future and the past: models are changing

This chapter

The mirror as a powerful tool

Library models in transition

Consortia in our corporate lives

Changing roles of and pressures on consortia

What are we doing, or what is our business model?

Future business models

Chapter 4: Understanding choices

This chapter

What are choices?

Beginning to construct scenarios through choices

Keeping options open

Chapter 5: Toward a new way of thinking

This chapter

How to organise for decisions

Is it all straightforward?

Confronting sameness

Research as a group

Chapter 6: Designing your process

This chapter

Not every process is the same

Scenario construction beginnings

The suggested process

Chapter 7: Scenarios and implementation

This chapter

Preferred Library Scenario

Keeping the scenario alive

Mid-term review

The staff in the implementation of the Preferred Scenario

Chapter 8: Choice, chance and (less than) certainty

This chapter

Chance and randomness

Adoption of risk

Issue 1: abundance of data

Issue 2: search engine capability

Issue 3: avoid group thinking

Issue 4: learn to take risks

Issue 5: continue to build a trust metric for the library

Issue 6: so what is your future?

Conclusion

Chapter 9: Case studies

Case study 1: A major Hong Kong university library

Case study 2: A major Australian university library

Case study 3: CAVAL Ltd, Melbourne, Australia

Case study 4: SOLINET scenarios

Case study 5: Public library

Case study 6: The possible world of library consortia

Chapter 10: Implementation and the impact of change

This chapter

Change, demolition and reconstruction

The human side of change

Getting involved and involvement

Following through and embedding the change

Change and scenario planning

Further reading

Index

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