Chapter 6

Optimum Transmission System Expansion Offshore Considering Renewable Energy Sources

Shahab S. Torbaghan1 and Madeleine Gibescu2,    1Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek (VITO), EnergyVille, Poort Genk, Belgium,    2Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e), Eindhoven, The Netherlands

Abstract

This chapter provides an overview of transmission expansion planning (TEP) methods and their practical application. First, it discusses the strategic importance of the transmission system. Next, it describes the reasons why TEP remains a challenge for systems with a large share of renewable energy. Various TEP problems are classified, as well as the approaches that are used to solve them. Finally, the method and numerical results for the problem of planning a high voltage direct current grid in the North Sea region are shown.

Keywords

Long term planning; optimization; wind energy; HVDC transmission; electricity markets; power transmission economics

6.1 Introduction

The transmission system is the backbone of the electric power system. Its traditional role is to securely transport electrical energy from the remote large-scale generation power plants to distribution systems and industrial consumers. Nowadays, the transmission system also enables open access to electricity markets and promotes competition among producers. It facilitates the operation of electricity markets by providing capacity for conducting power trades between various price areas.

The ultimate goal of the transmission system operator (TSO) is to maintain the reliability and security of supply at an affordable cost for the consumers. In recent years, electric power systems have been subjected to substantial changes, both on the generation side (e.g., large-scale integration of renewable energy sources (RES), energy storage systems), as well as the demand side (e.g., new distributed energy resources, electric heating, and transportation technologies). These changes present significant challenges to the operation of the power system. Next to that, the unbundling of the electricity production and transport sectors has introduced additional uncertainty in the planning processes of the TSOs, which must now align with anticipated long-term market developments. Transmission expansion planning (TEP) is the process of identifying the transmission network expansions that are necessary for dealing with these challenges and preparing the system for serving all current and future connected customers.

Transmission is a capital-intensive investment for both large equipment and sophisticated control centers. Investment in transmission has a long lead-time. In addition, the transmission investment is in practice irreversible; thus, once an interconnector is built, it cannot be redeveloped. Moreover, the resale value of the installed asset is very low. Finally, transmission assets have a long lifetime ranging from 20 to 40 years. Therefore, decisions regarding locations, capacities and timing of transmission investments is a crucial step in any transmission expansion project and must be made with great caution.

TEP algorithms traditionally followed a least-cost philosophy. The aim of the planners was to minimize the investment cost of transmission (sometimes also including generation) expansions to meet the future demand, subject to physical, and operational constraints.

After deregulation and subsequent separation of generation and transmission assets, the transmission system continues to be a monopoly. Therefore, the operation and development of the transmission grid remain the responsibility of TSOs. With the introduction of competition in generation, the generation units are owned by different market parties that follow their own strategic interests. This change has imposed new challenges, both in planning and operation of the power system.

In addition, large-scale integration of renewable energy sources (RES) has increased the number of uncertainties that the TSOs have to deal with. First, RES [including offshore wind (OW)] are often located remotely from load centers. Hence, new robust transmission infrastructure is a prerequisite for transferring power from the generation location to the load centers. Second, the power production levels of renewable resources are highly dependent on meteorological conditions. Thus, variable renewable generation, such as that from wind, wave, and solar sources, may consequently be difficult to predict over various time scales. Large penetrations of such energy generation technologies into the power system can lead to increase in the variability and uncertainty in the system’s generation patterns and drive a need for greater flexibility in market and system operations. Refs. [13] propose several solutions to reduce the impact of variability and the associated risks of RES. One possible solution at the transmission level is to extend the geographical distribution of the power system by building new transmission interconnectors1 between neighboring control areas.

Since the traditional TEP algorithms are no longer viable in this highly competitive and uncertain environment, the methods have to be improved to account for the increased uncertainty induced by RES expansion and to address the needs of different stakeholders that are involved, for example, by minimizing total cost and maximizing profit of investors, while also maximizing the benefit to society.

6.2 Classification of TEP Formulations

It is the task of transmission planners to forecast the growth of load, generation fleet, and resultant power flows over short- and long-term horizons. In addition, they need to perform security checks to verify whether various technical limits will be violated. For those limits that are violated, planners propose a range of solutions to overcome problems and provide a cost-benefit analysis based on several measures, including the economic evaluation, socioeconomic feasibility, and technical performance [5].

This analysis relies on future development scenarios of load and generation of the power systems under study. System planners use future scenarios to determine the required reinforcements and the appropriate timing of building the assets.

In general, TEP is a multiperiod, nonlinear, nonconvex, mixed-integer and large-scale optimization problem. It, therefore, has a high degree of complexity, as there are so many factors that have to be considered.

TEP problems can be classified based on criteria related to regulatory structure, power system uncertainties, planning horizon, and solution methods [58]. The TEP problems are respectively classified as regulated/deregulated, deterministic/nondeterministic, and static/dynamic. Depending on the mathematical properties of the formulation of the TEP problem, a heuristic, metaheuristic, or exact mathematical optimization method can be applied as the solution algorithm. A TEP problem can have features from all the above-mentioned categories in terms of problem formulation and solution method. For example, TEP problems to be discussed in this chapter are nondeterministic, static, or dynamic frameworks that are formulated for a deregulated environment. They are solved using mathematical optimization algorithms.

6.2.1 Regulated Versus Deregulated

In a regulated environment, the power system has a vertically integrated structure. The system operator owns all transmission and generation assets. Its aim is to provide electrical energy to consumers in the most economical manner, while maintaining a certain level of security and reliability. In such an environment, the transmission and generation expansion planning are conducted together centrally, with the purpose of minimizing the overall system cost.

The separation of ownership of transmission and generation assets after deregulation complicates the planning process. The objective of long-term planning in the new environment is seen differently, depending on the perspective of the entity that is performing the assessment. The generation units seek to maximize their own profit. The TSO strives to maintain the reliability and security of the grid, at the same time providing nondiscriminatory access to electricity markets for all market players. The TSO also tries to find effective solutions that meet society’s needs and promote sustainability.

In the deregulated power system, TSOs have limited information on the future development plans of the generation units. Therefore, uncertainty has become a major element in the decision-making process of TSOs, especially with respect to the choice of capacity. For transmission corridors, operation issues such as the acceptance level of congestion and the structure of the markets have become the main elements of long-term transmission planning. The situation is even more complicated, as the expansion decisions made by one entity will affect the benefits and so the decisions to be made by other partners. For example, building a new interconnector that connects the Netherlands to Denmark will induce significant changes in market prices, power flows, and the revenues of all the interconnectors that are connected to either system. As a result, after the establishment of the competitive environment the traditional TEP frameworks are no longer viable. It is, therefore, necessary to review both the ways, in which the problems are formulated and the algorithms are used to solve them [913]. Today, new expansion investments must be evaluated for their possible economic implications (on the market prices), as well as their social implications (on the behavior of transmission investors and, from there, on the competitive markets [14]). “Cooptimization” or “anticipatory transmission planning” are the computer-aided decision-support tools that consider generation dispatch and investment decisions on transmission capacities, congestion, and from there, the network investments. The anticipatory TEP enables transmission investors to evaluate how different network configurations will change investment and operational decisions to be made by generation investors. The cooptimization TEP can be an effective tool for regulators, as well as investors, to better understand various risks, benefits, and costs when assessing resource options, and to identify improved integrated solutions [15].

6.2.2 Centralized Versus Decentralized Decision-Making Process

Developing power system infrastructure is an expensive and time consuming process. It is normally conducted over the course of several years. From an economic perspective, the cash flow of a transmission expansion project consists of a large initial investment followed by transmission revenues and minimal operating and maintenance costs that occur every year over the lifetime of the project. Therefore, planning analysis generally compares alternatives that have different costs/revenues at different points in time. In this section, the “time-value of money” concepts which are widely used in investment planning analysis are discussed.

Financing the investment through external resources is a common practice, especially in power system planning projects. Therefore, it is more sensible to base the analysis on loan payments, rather than investment costs from a commercial perspective. However, when considering the system-wide, social perspective, direct investment costs are used instead in the cash flow calculations. Transmission infrastructure can exist as either a merchant system or as a regulated resource infrastructure. In the case of merchant interconnectors, the transmission investment is a profit-driven exercise. In this regard, the transmission revenue generated every hour would be considered as the source for investment recovery.

In the deregulated electricity industry, two major paradigms of decision-making processes in transmission planning can be identified

1. Centralized: Decision-making, in which the planners’ objective is to minimize/maximize the system-wide social cost/social welfare under a central planning, and

2. Decentralized: Decision-making, with profit-maximizing objectives of multiple competing private investors (merchant transmission investors) that are in compliance with system operator’s guidelines.

Regulated investment is a common practice in Europe. Under this scheme, TSOs are promoted to invest, build and operate the interconnector [16]. Their task includes the construction, maintenance and operation of the interconnectors [17]. The cost of new investments is normally financed through regulated transport tariffs. The TSOs must agree upon the rate and obtain the regulator’s approval for implementing the tariff. Therefore, the TSOs need to convince their respective regulators that the extra investment(s) in the new capacities are socially beneficial, so that they obtain their approval and may procure the investment.

In addition to the regulated tariffs, a part of the investment may be recovered through transmission revenues the TSO receives from (implicitly) auctioning the interconnector capacities. According to Article 6(6) of Electricity Regulation (EC) No. 1228/2003, the TSO may utilize any revenues resulting from the allocation of the transmission interconnector only for the following purposes:

• Guaranteeing the availability of the allocated transmission capacity.

• Maintaining and/or increasing transmission investments.

• Reimbursing the cost of the regulatory authorities that are working toward modifying or approving methodologies that are used for calculating network tariffs.

Large price differences between electricity market areas create incentives for market parties to invest in new interconnectors to explore financial potentials and capture transmission revenues. These private interconnectors are referred to as “merchant interconnectors” and are considered as a commercial alternative to the regulated TSO investments.

Merchant investment opens the way for profit-motivated investors to participate in electricity transmission projects (which has been so far considered a natural monopoly). Some argue that it is the only way to address the perceived problem of underinvestment in transmission system [18]. Moreover, in the absence of political willingness to increase the transmission tariffs for making new investments, merchant investment can be an option for transmission capacity expansion [19].

Merchant interconnections differ fundamentally from the regulated interconnectors in at least the three following points:

• Merchant investments are repaid through transmission revenues over the interconnector instead of the regulated transport tariffs and so involve higher risk for investors.

• In contrast to the regulated interconnectors, TSOs are not allowed to invest/participate in merchant interconnectors.

• To alleviate the investment risk, merchant interconnectors may be granted exemption from regulations such as: nondiscriminatory third-party access, restrictions on the use of transmission revenues, tariff regulation, and ownership unbundling provided that the exemption would not hamper market competition [20,21].

Regulated TEP is the state of practice. However, in recent years, decentralized merchant investment is penetrating some liberalized markets (e.g., Cross Sound Cable Interconnector [22], Path 15, TransBay cable and Green Line in the United States [23], Basslink in Australia [24], and Brit-Ned, Swe-Pol and Baltic Cable in Europe [25]). It is a move toward ending the transmission monopoly that prevailed for decades. For the moment, merchant transmission is viewed as a solution for large and risky investments, as would be the case for meshed offshore grids [23,25].

From an economic perspective, a major obstacle toward wider adoption of merchant transmission is the difficulty in determining the economic benefits and identifying the stakeholders, who may benefit from the facility. From a legal perspective, a good regulatory regime is required that provides opportunities for merchant investors to participate in transmission projects, when they are the most viable option.

By 2015, the EU had granted authorization to few merchant projects, such as BritNed, Estlink, NorGer, France-Angleterre (IFA), 3 the East West Cables, and a new interconnector between Austria and Italy. Merchant transmission is a new practice in Europe. The introduction of the merchant transmission investment has created new challenges for the regulators, especially from an institutional level [25,26]. In this regard, the centralized (regulated monopoly) and decentralized (merchant transmission) network management approaches result in distinctly different expansion decisions and grid designs. Shrestha et al. [26] proved that in theory (under restrictive mathematical assumptions) that the centralized expansion approach results in socially optimal network capacity, which ensures maximum benefit to society (i.e., electricity consumers and producers). They also show that in contrast to the centralized approach, monopolistic merchant entrants under a decentralized system will always result in underinvestment in transmission capacities. However, enforcing proper competition in transmission investments or implementation of transmission revenue rights can make it plausible to achieve near socially optimal grid expansion, even under decentralized expansion [27].

6.2.3 Deterministic versus Nondeterministic Methods

There is a significant level of uncertainty involved in the future development of generation, transmission, demand, and electricity markets. The uncertainty stems from the nature of various technical, environmental, economic, and social/regulatory factors.

In general uncertainty sources can be divided into two groups

1. Random sources (or aleatory uncertainties): The uncertainty can be represented statistically, using historical data, such as: load, variable renewable energy production, and others [28,29].

2. Nonrandom sources (or epistemic uncertainties): Uncertainties that cannot be foreseen from previous history, such as changes in economic rules, regulatory regimes, and trends in public acceptance and technical developments of the power system.

There are two types of transmission planning algorithms for dealing with the uncertainties: Deterministic and nondeterministic. In the classic deterministic approaches, planning is performed for a reduced number of operating states that represent the worst case conditions, for example, peak load or generation out of service [3032]. The planner seeks to find the most essential reinforcements that are required to attain planning objectives (a certain economic goal and/or reliability level) and, at the same time, operate within the acceptable operating range for transmission equipment. The advantage of this approach is that it gives a unique set of investment decisions.

The disadvantage of deterministic approaches is that uncertainties in various parameters, such as prices and load forecast, location of new power plants in the future and others, are not included in solving the problem [33]. Consequently, deterministic models are very likely to miss the whole picture, as the model looks at only a few snapshots of future scenarios and, therefore, their final results usually lack robustness. For example, by looking only at peak-load hours, the planning analysis fails to account for operating conditions of major interest that can happen during offpeak hours, in combination with high production from RES.

An alternative approach is to use scenario planning. In scenario planning, several scenarios are defined that represent future regulatory and economic conditions. For each scenario, an optimal transmission configuration is developed using deterministic TEP or a production costing-based comparison of predefined plans. Then, the resulted designs are aggregated and those that are attractive for most cases are identified as robust solutions [34].

The purpose of nondeterministic planning methods is to better capture uncertainties associated with the analysis of the random and nonrandom factors in the future scenarios. This can be done by considering various operating snapshots (multitime period formulation), to which a probability of occurrence is assigned. Note that in many cases, the probability denotes a degree of importance of the operating states that are considered. The nondeterministic approaches include: Information gap decision theory [35], probabilistic (Monte Carlo simulations [36], point estimate [37], scenario-based modeling [38]), interval-based analysis [39], robust optimization [40], hybrid possibilistic-probabilistic approach (fuzzy-scenario [41,42], fuzzy Monte Carlo [43,44]), or combination of them [39,45].

6.2.4 Static versus Dynamic Methods

Depending on the implementation horizon, TEP problems are classified into static and dynamic problems. In static TEP problems, the solution provides an optimal planning, assuming that system expansions are implemented instantly at a certain point in the future. The optimal design can include grid topology, transmission capacities, or merely a set of possible candidate reinforcements to attain a particular objective (e.g., minimize cost and maximize benefit) [648].

In reality, transmission network developments take place gradually in multiple development stages, because: (1) Building large infrastructures is costly and time consuming; (2) other parts of the power system and electricity markets develop in a gradual manner; (3) there can be disruptive delays that happen due to unforeseen technical and legal complications; and (4) the transmission development plan can adapt to aforementioned changing circumstances (closed loop rather than open loop design). Therefore, in addition to the optimal grid design, time restrictions should ideally be included in the analysis. Any static model will fail to provide information regarding the timing of the project development steps. In Section 4.3, a static framework for TEP in the North Sea is introduced.

There are three planning horizons: Short term (1–5 years), medium term (up to 10 years), and long term (planning horizon longer than 10 years) [49]. Dynamic TEP (DTEP) takes into account temporal continuity of expansion projects. Note that unlike the models discussed in [7,50], the term “dynamic” does not merely refer to a series of statically built-up plans. The optimal plan includes development strategy and timing considerations, in addition to the sizing and placement of the assets. Although DTEP is computationally intensive [7], it usually leads to more economically efficient grid design and development strategy [51].

6.3 Transmission Expansion Planning in Europe

The construction of new infrastructures in Europe was initially driven by the need for increased cross-border power exchanges (PX) and the integration of the wholesale electricity markets. The liberalization of the power industry and emergence of electricity markets has changed the way of thinking about the operation of the system from a national to a regional or even European level. In the new environment, planners pursue solutions that facilitate cross-border power trades and encourage more efficient use of energy resources over all power systems. The European Union’s (EU’s) third internal energy market package is a good example. It was one of the major policy initiatives that aimed at “accelerating infrastructure investments, with the goal of ensuring the proper functioning of the EU electricity market” [20].

Today, the demand for integrating sustainable and renewable low-carbon energy resources has become an important supporting factor [20]. With the ambitious “20/20/20” targets, Europe aims at reducing CO2 emissions by 20% compared with 1990 levels, increasing the share of renewable sources in European energy systems to 20%, and increasing energy efficiency by 20%. It was the starting point for Europe’s transition to low carbon and sustainable energy supply. The 20/20/20 target is guided by the EU’s energy and climate change policies core objectives which are

1. Security of energy supply (by ensuring a reliable and uninterrupted supply of energy and electricity),

2. Competitiveness as electricity markets are restructured (by reducing the energy prices and increasing market efficiency), and

3. Sustainability (by limiting the footprint of energy production, transmission, and use on the environment).

The development of new transmission networks both on and offshore, can improve the capability of the system to accommodate the variability and uncertainty in the power balance (i.e., due to the fluctuating and uncontrollable nature of wind power), while maintaining satisfactory levels of performance.

So far, several projects have been launched in the EU2 to align Pan-European power grid development with the EU’s policy targets and move toward a Pan-European Supergrid. Building a transnational meshed grid and reinforcing existing onshore transmission systems may encounter either barriers or incentives in technical, economic, political, and regulatory domains. The technical issues have been well defined and addressed in literature [5254]. From an economic viewpoint, developing a transnational transmission infrastructure requires a massive investment. They will have significant impact on the market operation of different countries. From a legal viewpoint, differences among heterogeneous national regulatory regimes, lack of legal certainty, and international cooperation, reduced social acceptance of projects, and lack of a long-term vision are factors that can hamper the development of cross-border offshore transmission and OW projects. They should be addressed adequately; otherwise, the development of a transnational grid may be suboptimal, not cost-efficient, or might even be prevented from coming into existence.

To summarize, the European power system has become confronted with two major challenges in recent years: Growing share of RES and increasing share of cross-border power trades, while keeping the same level for security of supply. To meet these challenges, substantial grid reinforcements are required both on and offshore [55,56]. These developments are considered as the key priority in the national development plans of EU and several North Sea coastal states [56]. The North Sea offshore grid is identified as one of the six infrastructure priorities for the EU by the Second Strategic Energy Review and EU regulation No 347/2013 on guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure [56].

OW is expected to provide a substantial contribution to the energy supply system, especially in North-Western Europe, due to greater technical maturity and decreasing cost. Particular attention has been focused on the North Sea, where the development of OW is already driving the construction of new connections from shore to sea. The total installed capacity of OW installations in Europe is expected to amount to 40 GW by 2020, could reach 150 GW by 2030, and even more by 2050 [57]. Special attention is focused on the North Sea, where there is a great potential for OW power plant development. In this regard, developing the transmission infrastructure in the North Sea is considered as a key priority. It is in fact, identified as 1 of the 12 “strategic energy infrastructure priority corridors” by European Regulation 347/2013, concerning guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructures.

Large-scale integration of OW energy demands a secure and reliable network to transport the energy to the remote onshore load centers. In this regard, new transmission networks are needed to be developed both on and offshore. There are three main drivers for developing an offshore grid in the North Sea region. The first driver is to improve the security of supply by interconnecting the power systems of different countries around the North Sea. This will help to bypass the bottlenecks of the onshore connections. The second driver is to enhance competition among European electricity markets by easing power trades and increasing possibilities for arbitrage and limiting the price spikes [58].

The production of RES is weather dependent. Large-scale integration of RES requires more flexible power systems. As the scope of weather patterns (e.g., wind availability and solar irradiation) is smaller than the size of Europe, RES resources are always available somewhere on the continent. As a result, the third driver for developing an offshore grid is to expand the geographical distribution of the system to increase the systems flexibility and create capacity for conducting cross-national power exchange, from which there is a surplus of renewable generation where there is a demand [59].

Significant expansion of transmission capacity can encounter technical, regulatory, social, and/or legal obstacles. From a technical viewpoint, proper accounting of physical flows using actual branch parameters, rather than transport models, are key to understanding the connections between transmission lines or cables, their cost, and benefits to different regions in conducting electricity trades. Inclusion of the correlation and location of actual injections can be obtained by using several periods, or even all hours of the year or several years, in order to achieve a grid design that is adequate, and yet not overbuilt [60].

From a financial standpoint, the economic fundamentals of consumption and generation also constrain realistic development. In addition, developing transmission infrastructure requires a massive investment and will have significant impact on the operation of different stakeholders and electricity markets of different countries. Therefore, appropriate choices regarding technology and line routing are necessary for proper cost optimization in actual implementation [6163]. The pace of required development brings challenges of finance; the magnitude of capital expenditures associated with anticipated grid development has been evaluated as a strain on financial viability of the usual financiers of transmission projects, namely the TSOs of Europe [64]. Several national regulators are seeking possibilities to encourage private investment in grid projects [65]. The issue of investment is a crucial factor, because it could slow or threaten the feasibility of transmission developments, and yet it is not extensively studied. Issues of repaying investment costs and equitable distribution of costs and benefits have been examined, but only using a simple transport model to balance generator and investor benefits [66], or only considering a fixed grid [67]. Acknowledging that the grid grows in stepwise increases can be a valuable element of realism to inform industry and transmission companies [68]. For expansion planning, a formulation where the branch capacities are free to change is key to discovering alternate possibilities that can reward both society and investors.

The main focus of this chapter is on TEP for a high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid in the North Sea region. The following section presents an overview of existing TEP formulation.

6.4 Review of TEP Formulations

This section provides a market-based approach to solve a long-term TEP for meshed grids that connect large amount of RES to regional onshore markets.

The findings of this part provide economic insight into the operation of a meshed AC as well as multiterminal HVDC grids. The proposed framework can support transmission system planners and private investors, as it determines the most economically efficient design to invest in.

In classic benefit–cost economics, economic efficiency is measured through social welfare or surplus, the sum of economic surpluses across all market parties [69]. According to spot-pricing theory, the marginal-cost pricing leads to social welfare maximization [70]. Social welfare is defined as the sum of surpluses gained by all market participants (minus externality costs, if any) [31,69]. In theory, the maximum social welfare can only be attained under a perfectly competitive market [71]. Actual markets attempt to achieve a higher social welfare close to the maximum level. Therefore, the market clearing process is a social welfare maximization optimization problem that meets the physical constraints of the system (transmission constraints) and is called the optimal power flow (OPF) problem. The solution to the OPF gives equilibrium between the supply and demand in the whole region.

The problem is that for capital intensive investment, such as for the transmission system, the marginal cost value can easily drop below the average cost3. In that case, marginal pricing can lead to underrecovery or deficit, which is an economic inefficiency. Perez-Arriaga et al. have previously shown that congestion rents can only contribute to a fraction of the total grid costs in practice [72]. Therefore, for transmission investments, a solution that only gives the highest social welfare is not necessarily the most economically sound, and provisions are required to recover the unallocated investments.

Repaying transmission investment costs and equitable distribution of costs and benefits have been a challenging issue for TSOs4. Several methods have been developed to address the revenue reconciliation problem, such as neutral tax revenues or the so-called “second-best pricing schemes” (as they induce deviations from marginal cost pricing [75]), including average cost pricing, right of way pricing, fair rate of return regulation, welfare optimal breakeven point and peak-load pricing [74,7678].

Peak-load pricing is based on the theory of long-run marginal cost. It is obtained by taking the investment capital cost explicitly into objective of the traditional welfare maximization problem. It was formalized by Crew et al. [77] to take the generation investment costs implicitly into account for welfare maximization. By adding a model of the AC transmission network, Lecinq and Ilic applied peak-load pricing for AC transmission pricing [74].

In what follows, static TEP (STEP) framework for both AC and DC systems are discussed. It highlights the basic concepts that are used when formulating the problem in the context of competitive electricity markets.

6.4.1 Formulation of Transmission Expansion Planning Problem

In this section, weighted STEP frameworks that take into account the probability of occurrence of various system states (ωtimage). The formulation carries the advantage of including all operating states relevant to the design, but compresses their representation.

Consider a power system with n(Ωz)image buses indexed i=1,2,,n(Ωz)image. Ωzimage is the set of all buses. Each bus is assumed to be a price area of producers and consumers that participate in a zonal competitive market. For a hybrid AC and DC system, the STEP problem takes on the form

maxΩ=ϕψ (6.1)

image (6.1)

Subject to

gGiPGgtdDiPDdt=Pit,i,jΩz,tΩO (6.2)

image (6.2)

Pit=jΩzfij,ACt+jΩzfij,DCt,iΩz,tΩO (6.3)

image (6.3)

Pimin,tPitPimax,t,iΩz,tΩO (6.4)

image (6.4)

fij,ACt=Nij,AC·fij,cblACt,i,jΩz,tΩO (6.5)

image (6.5)

fij,DCt=Nij,DC·fij,cblDCt,i,jΩz,tΩO (6.6)

image (6.6)

fij,cblACtfij,ACt,max·wij,AC,i,jΩz,tΩO (6.7)

image (6.7)

fij,cblDCtfij,DCt,max·wij,DC,i,jΩz,tΩO (6.8)

image (6.8)

fij,cblACtgij,AC[(vi,ACt)2vi,ACt·vj,ACt·cos(δitδjt)]+bij,ACvi,ACt·vj,ACt·sin(δitδjt)(1wij,AC)·M,i,jΩz,tΩO (6.9)

image (6.9)

fij,cblDCtgij,DC[(vi,DCt)2vi,DCt·vj,DCt](1wij,DC)·M,i,jΩz,tΩO (6.10)

image (6.10)

Nij,AC0,i,jΩz (6.11)

image (6.11)

Nij,DC0,i,jΩz (6.12)

image (6.12)

0PGgtPGgmax,t,gGi,iΩz,tΩO (6.13)

image (6.13)

0PDdtPDdmax,t,dDi,iΩz,tΩO (6.14)

image (6.14)

δit=0,tΩO (6.15)

image (6.15)

δijmax(1wij,AC)·Mδitδjtδijmax+(1wij,AC)·M,iΩz,tΩO (6.16)

image (6.16)

vi,DCminvi,DCtvi,DCmax,iΩz,tΩO (6.17)

image (6.17)

vi,ACminvi,ACtvi,ACmax,iΩz,tΩO (6.18)

image (6.18)

wij,DC{0,1},i,jΩz (6.19)

image (6.19)

wij,AC{0,1},i,jΩz (6.20)

image (6.20)

The first term in the objective function (6.1),

ϕ=tΩO[iΩzdDiPDdt·λDdtiΩzgGiPGgt·λGgt]·ωt (6.21)

image (6.21)

presents the social welfare over the whole planning horizon. The second term in the objective function,

ψ=12iΩzjΩz[wij,AC(kijAC+kijAC·Nij,AC·fij,ACt,max·Lij)+wij,DC(kijDC+kijDC·Nij,DC·fij,DCt,max·Lij)]·n(ΩO) (6.22)

image (6.22)

denotes the total investment cost of building AC and DC transmission infrastructures. Note that the investment cost includes both investment and installation costs as proposed in Ref. [79].

In the formulation above, Ωtimage is a set of all operating hours included in the planning horizon. ΩZimage is the set of indexes of all price zones. Giimage is the set of indexes (gimage) of all generating units in zone iimage. Likewise, Diimage is the set of all indexes (dimage) of the demands located in zone iimage.

Eq. (6.2) enforces power balance at every operating scenario. Eq. (6.3) defines the power injection Pitimage of zone iimage into the rest of the system. Constraint (6.4) enforces power injection constraints, and Pimin,t0Pimax,timage. Constraint (6.4) limits the combined power import/export of every country over AC and DC connections to certain range. Note that the value of Pimin,t,Pimax,timage might be determined based on security provisions that every price zone considers.

In the context of this work, the AC interconnector connects zone iimage and jimage is assumed to compose of a number Nij,ACimage of identical parallel AC cables fij,cblACtimage, each with conductance gij,ACimage and susceptance of bij,ACimage. In a similar manner, the DC interconnector connecting zone iimage and jimage is assumed to composed of Nij,DCimage of identical parallel DC cables fij,cblDCtimage, each with conductance gij,dcimage. Eqs. (6.5) and (6.6) define the power flow over respectively AC and DC interconnectors connecting zone iimage and jimage.

Eqs. (6.7) and (6.8) express the Kirchhoff’s Voltage Laws as disjunctive constraints for the candidate cables, for AC and DC technology, respectively. Note that wij,ACimage and wij,DCimage are integer variables and take a one value for integer that exist. For AC interconnectors that exist, wij,AC=1image constraint (6.7) limits the power flow of AC cables, to the maximum capacity. Likewise, for DC interconnectors that exist wij,DC=1image and (6.8) limits the power flow of DC cables to the maximum capacity. For solutions with near-zero Nij,ACimage and Nij,DCimage values, wij,AC=wij,DC=0image and therefore the constraints become inactive.

In a similar manner, for wij,AC=1image and constraint (6.9) becomes an equality constraint equivalent to fij,cblACtgij,AC[(vi,ACt)2vi,ACt·vj,ACt·cos(δitδjt)]+bij,ACvi,ACt·vj,ACt·sin(δitδjt)=0image. For wij,DC=1image, constraint (6.9) becomes an equality constraint equivalent to fij,cblDCtgij,DC[(vi,DCt)2vi,DCt·vj,DCt]=0image. For wij,AC=wij,DC=0image, Eqs. (6.9) and (6.10) do not constrain the power flow in the left-hand side since M is an adequately large positive number.

Constraints (6.11) and (6.12) enforce the number of AC and DC cables respectively to be a positive real number. Eq. (6.13) states that each generator must produce below its capacity. Eq. (6.14) states that power consumed by each consumer must be a value between zero and its capacity. Eq. (6.15) sets the angle of the reference zone to zero. Constraint (6.16) enforces the fact that the angle difference between the two ends of a line cannot exceed a certain level. Note that vitimage is per-pole line-to-ground voltage of DC converters at each end of the bipolar interconnector. Due to operating limits, the DC voltage of the converters is bound between 0.9 p.u. and 1.1 p.u. As power flow of each DC cable is precisely controlled through voltage control of the converters, zonal voltages are considered independent decision variables. Therefore, Eq. (6.17) ensures that the voltage of the DC converters at the gate remains within acceptable operational range. Eqs. (6.18) and (6.19) define the integer variables wij,ACimage and wij,DCimage as discussed above.

Only the steady state operating conditions are considered. Thus, the power system is assumed to be dynamically secure. That is, the DC converters are utilized with a robust control system (e.g., using voltage margin method [4] or voltage droop control [80]) which maintains transient stability of the system after a disturbance. The results of the optimization formulation (6.1)(6.17) include an angle, a voltage (independent optimization variables), and an injection (dependent optimization variable) for each converter, which represent its steady-state operating point. Therefore, the optimization model determines the reference values of the voltage angles, DC-voltage as well as the supply/demand bids of the generation unites and consumers in each zone, for each operating state. In addition, the optimal solution includes grid topology and transmission capacities to meet the objective function. The optimization problem (6.1)(6.17) is a multiperiod, nonlinear, nonconvex, mixed-integer and large-scale optimization problem. Therefore, it has a high degree of complexity and is computationally very intensive to solve.

6.4.2 Simplifying the Problem Formulation

6.4.2.1 AC Network

The main objective of TEP is to expand existing power systems to enable them to create sufficient capacity for cross-border power exchange, to accommodate new types of renewable sources of energy and to serve growing demand in the future.

TEP for AC networks has been investigated thoroughly in literature [45,8183]. Early models were based on linear programming [84]. Proper accounting of physical flows using linearized DC approximation [70], allows Kirchhoff’s Voltage Laws (KVL) to be enforced with disjunctive constraints instead of nonlinear ones and, therefore, provided a key to understanding the connections between actual lines, their cost, and benefits to different regions [32,85].

In Refs. [86,87], the authors propose multistage TEP, but ignore the interactions of transmission and generation investments. Sauma et al. [88] propose a multistage game–theoric–based transmission and generation expansion planning framework that incorporates the effects of strategic interaction between generation and transmission, but such models are computationally burdensome, especially when applied to real-world problems.

A number of studies [89,90] propose cooptimization of generation and transmission expansion based on mixed-integer formulation of flexible topology controls discussed in Refs. [91,92]. Using a large-scale wind generation and TEP model, the authors in Refs. [93,94] show that ignoring the interdependency between transmission and wind expansions can lead to a suboptimal solution.

Physical limitations of the AC technology, especially for long distances and offshore applications (i.e., excessive reactive current drawn by the cable capacitances that induces excessive cable losses and demands reactive shunt compensation to control voltages and avoid overvoltages [95]), in addition to recent advances in the HVDC technology, have triggered interest in exploration of the application of HVDC technology for large-scale, long-distance transmission applications. There are two types of HVDC transmission systems

• Current Source Converter (CSC) HVDC (or classical HVDC) and

• Voltage Source Converter (VSC) HVDC.

VSC has significant advantages over CSC, which makes this technology favorable for long distance and offshore cables. VSC HVDC technology utilizes better control of the electricity flow and direction. VSC is more compact compared with CSC and is easier to design. It enables “black start” capability and connection to weak power systems. Last but not least, it enables multiterminal configurations. Therefore, it is preferred technology for the development of a meshed grid design [96]. Previous studies [97,98] show that the DC transmission system can be considered as an alternative to AC technology in competitive electricity markets. Therefore, the rest of this chapter is focused on transmission planning problem using VSC-HVDC technology.

In what follows a set of simplifying assumptions are proposed to simplify the STEP problem for VSC-HVDC technology to make the power flows linear, and allows for deriving the analytical solution of the problem. The analytical derivation of the solution is later shown to be useful for investigating the impact of different economic and policy conditions.

6.4.2.2 Continues Social Welfare

As nonlinear, step-wise, aggregated supply–demand curves are more difficult to work with, we assume that aggregated supply–demand curves are linear function of power generation and consumptions. The linear supply and demand curves are presented in Fig. 6.1 and read respectively as follows:

λGgt=aGgt·PGgt+bGgt,gGi,iΩz,tΩO (6.23)

image (6.23)

λDdt=aDdt·PDdt+bDdt,dDi,iΩz,tΩO (6.24)

image (6.24)

where aGgtimage and aDdtimage are the slope of the supply and demand curves, bGgtimage is the lowest price producers require before participating in any production activity, and bDdtimage is the maximum price the consumers are willing to pay for the electricity.

image
Figure 6.1 Linear supply and demand curve of a given market: (A) Net generation node and (B) net consumption node.

This assumption allows determination of the changes in social welfare (i.e., incremental social welfare) as a quadratic function of power injection of each zone in the rest of the system (see Fig. 6.2) and, therefore, makes the problem quadratic and so, easier to solve. It also enables implicit modeling of the operation of the onshore electricity markets and their responses to the power trades.

image
Figure 6.2 A typical incremental social cost curve. Piminimage and Pimaximage represent minimum and maximum power that region i can inject during operating hour t, with the sign convention such that negative injection means import (local load exceeds local generation).

Note that one could use more complex assumptions (i.e., nonlinear supply/demand curves). Then one would need to define social welfare explicitly as a function of total quantities demanded and supplied. This makes the objective function nonsmooth and more difficult to solve. Note that, for such nonsmooth problem, the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions cannot be applied, and therefore, the analytical solution is not accessible.

6.4.2.3 Linear Transmission Investment Cost

For the sake of simplicity, the cost of converters and interconnectors were represented as a linear function of the length and rated capacity of interconnectors [i.e., kijAC=kijDC=0image in Eq. (6.22)].

All interconnectors were assumed to have been built using VSC-HVDC technology. In the absence of economies of scale, the cost of converters and interconnectors were assumed to be linearly dependent on length and rated capacity of the cables. However, high-voltage converters are extremely expensive equipment. Adding extra converters results in higher investment and operational costs; therefore, considering the cost of converters implicitly in the cost of interconnectors may induce an error in the cost calculations as investment cost of transmission infrastructure might be different from what is reported in this chapter.

The formulation, resulted after applying the simplifications outlined above, is a continuous, nonlinear optimization formulation and allows for the consideration of multiple time periods in multiple development stages of the grid. The final results include optimal grid topology, transmission capacities, construction timing, and the resulting remuneration and distribution of the social welfare increase among the various onshore price zones.

6.4.3 Static Transmission Expansion Planning

In this section, we present a weighted STEP framework that takes into account the probability of occurrence of various system states. This formulation carries the advantage of including all operating states relevant to the design, but compresses their representation5.

6.4.3.1 Assumptions

We have assumed electricity markets are perfectly competitive. This implies that generators participate in the market with their short run marginal costs. For the sake of simplicity, a zonal market model is used in which the aggregated supply and demand bidding curves of each onshore zone are linear functions of the power generation/consumption of that zone. Only maximum and minimum import and export power constraints per zone were enforced. No intertemporal constraints on generation were considered. Only transmission investment decisions were considered. Intrazonal transmission constraints were neglected. In addition, the interconnector between zone iimage and jimage is assumed to be composed of a number Nijimage of identical parallel cables. In order to apply KKT conditions and make the analytical solution accessible, the problem was made continuous (as discussed in the previous section). Therefore, we assumed that Nijimage is continuous and differentiable variable. Any transmission operating cost component is neglected. The impact of discount, inflation and interest rates were not taken into account. Finally, a centralized decision-making entity (e.g., centralized offshore grid system operator) is considered that is regulated to maximize the social welfare and to provide nondiscriminatory transmission service.

6.4.3.2 Problem Formulation

The simplified STEP problem for meshed VSC-HVDC grids that connect regional markets takes on the form

maxΩ(vit,Nij,DC)=ϕψ (6.25)

..................Content has been hidden....................

You can't read the all page of ebook, please click here login for view all page.
Reset
18.221.41.214