9.1.1. Military warfare

Since prehistoric times, humanity has always fought to capture the human or material goods they desired. One never goes to war simply for war, but rather wants to own what the other possesses, or to prevent them from obtaining it, or even to impose a vision and way of living that do not belong to the other. The use of force having been, until the middle of the last century, the most effective action to obtain what we wanted, it is not surprising that today the military wars in parts of Africa, in Syria or against terrorism, is obvious to everyone.

The last 50 years have shown that the major military powers no longer necessarily win against weaker countries, despite the dissymmetry of their balance of power, because of the pressure of public opinion. Everyone remembers the problems encountered by the French or American leaders in getting their populations to accept the war in Indochina, or more recently, the war in Iraq. The media weapon, operational guerrilla warfare, the disenchantment of populations with the duration of the conflict and sensitization to the human losses counterbalance the means that one implements, whatever the virtuous motive invoked to justify these operations. Despite power relations that impact global geopolitics, large countries can no longer win wars faced with emancipation wishes of all kinds. We stabilize, we stop, we push for negotiation and we leave by leaving the locals to fend for themselves in general chaos. Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq are regrettable demonstrations.

9.1.2. Integration of the economy

Historically, the military has been interested in the economy as a means of pressure or as a weapon to break the enemy and to make them surrender. Nevertheless, this economic approach to warfare has always had a hard time being taken into account by government policy and services except in the particular case of a copy, process or product that has been recovered and exploited by backdoor ways using the resources of intelligence. Just look at the daily consumption of potatoes in France to understand what Antoine Parmentier has brought by discreetly recovering seeds from this tuber. At the same time, one can imagine what would have happened in England if Captain Bligh had been able to bring back the breadfruit trees he had in his hold on the Bounty.

Despite its concrete results, economic war remains secondary in the eyes of the public who misunderstand the reality and the practical consequences. Targeting either leading companies or state-of-the-art technologies, replacing deaths with unemployment and military spending with decreases in GDP, its effectiveness is not measured by media impact.

Yet projection wars, or so-called “asymmetric” wars, have less impact on the daily lives of our fellow citizens than these site closures, these disappearances of activities, or those transfers of research and skills that impoverish long term and inevitably our country. To be convinced of this, one needs to look at the immediate and time-related impact of the 2,850 job losses in the first part of the recent Alstom affair, or to remember Pechiney being sold over a weekend to its Canadian competitor with the loss in the following years of 70,000 jobs mostly in mountain valleys where employment is scarce.

This reality is all the more stronger because it is practiced without the protection and the international rule of a Geneva convention. Any means can be used to destabilize or destroy from the legal track with standards and embargoes, extraterritorial laws, export constraints like ITAR rules [USD 10], counterfeiting or illegal copying, attacks over the Internet, image or file hijacking, denial of service attacks, corruption or “compliance” defects, etc.

9.1.3. The priority of the economy

When the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) took control of part of Iraq and Syria to make it the new caliphate, the organization immediately prepared the export of oil, cotton and antiquities to Turkey, which brought them a lot of money. They resisted without great problems the Western attacks their as long as we did not act on economic means. This was all the easier because, for humanitarian reasons, Westerners did not want to attack civilian tankers on their way to Turkey – where crude oil was returning to Western refineries. As soon as the Russians did so, the financial flow was reduced and ISIL could not maintain the level of its military expenses and the salaries of its fighters. Economic realism rarely mixes with good feelings.

This is why we are witnessing a very clear evolution of strategic conceptions. The military becomes the targeted complement of major economic action in which the knowledge of the adversary through competitive intelligence becomes the key to success. In this context, we even witness operations exploiting the information obtained by competitive intelligence in the form of influential actions that are sometimes enough to ensure victory. The United States, which no longer has the power relationship to impose on the world its hegemonic view, understood this before many others. Embargoes decreed by the Americans throughout the Western financial system against oligarchs or rulers with dubious behavior have shown their effectiveness in pushing for negotiation. Switzerland and Luxembourg, accused of being tax havens and undergoing a threat campaign, have given up and restructured their banking systems, while Delaware [ROB 16], whose elected representative was the former US vice-president Joe Biden, remains out of danger.

9.1.4. The economic army

Today more than ever, contrary to what many strategists think when only considering their own issues, the economy is directly or indirectly at the heart of conflicts, because it concerns businesses, activities and the life of citizens. In all its Eastern complexity, the Syrian affair cannot be understood if we omit the original economic conflict between the Qatari and Iranian gas pipeline projects.

The economic weapon has become essential for winning in the global competition, but it requires having the right information to act, anticipate and react as efficiently as possible. The condemnation of Total, the BNP affair or General Motors’ acquisition of a stake in Peugeot can only be understood by integrating the American will to ensure its supremacy in the commercial negotiations and the economic approaches with Iran. The success of this type of strategy implies a perfect knowledge of the opponent, their strategy and their material and human resources. In the same vein, that of Alstom, which is explained by the desire to recover global leadership in gas turbines, is a perfectly successful operation that has lasted more than two years in which intelligence, including the mapping of all actors, played a vital role. Threats to the completion of Nordstream 2 [NOR 17], bringing oil through the Baltic to Germany, can only be understood in the light of the interest of US majors and the desire to protect the interests of friendly countries bordering Russia. We are clearly using economics for geopolitical purposes.

9.2.1. The importance of intelligence

Whether the war is conventional or not, we know from Sun Tzu [SUN 03] that the most effective attack or defense is directly related to the quality of the intelligence obtained. The knowledge of the enemy in their environment allows fighting on their weak point to reduce losses, save money, or better, secure a surrender without a fight. In the last battle of Julius Caesar in Gaul at Uxellodunum [GON 10], instead of attacking the entrenched camp, he diverted the water source which forced the valiant Carduci people to surrender without a fight – he then had their hands cut off. Blockades, embargoes, castles and cities, or the destruction of vital industrial infrastructures require information directly related to their economic values and impacts.

During the Second World War, to defeat a seemingly indestructible Germany, it was decided to attack its economic capacity by destroying the heart of the strategic industrial activities in the Ruhr. Colonel Paillole [MEM 12], head of the German sector of the 2nd French office, had collected information before 1940 on the entire economic and technical organization of the production located there. These are the studies that allowed the English to select sites and the German’s most sensitive points. They were able to break the German military capabilities by precisely targeting their bombing on this industrial valley from 1943 to 1945.

9.2.2. Economic intelligence

In the days of privateers, the most famous, like today’s Somali pirates, did not attack any boat. In both cases, the quest for maximum efficiency required the existence of informants at the heart of the enemy, who had the means to communicate the real interest of boats leaving or crossing the area. Infiltrators or agents at the court of the Viceroy of Mexico or Peru informed the English or French corsairs of the routes and calendars of passage of the fleets of gold. Recently, criminal organizations based in London were informing hackers of routes and inventories of boats cruising in the Indian Ocean to enable them to select those offering the best return on investment by the amount of the potential ransom.

Recalling Napoleon against the United Kingdom, the continental blockade that forces the opponent to survive without imports or external help was already known by the Greeks and Chinese. Its effectiveness is directly related to the perfect knowledge of the enemy, their abilities, their responsiveness and their morale. In this context, we can compare the blockade of Iraq between the two Gulf Wars, where the Americans had very precise information on the gradual deterioration of the economic situation and that of Iran under which we saw developing a national economy that has been able to partially escape the difficulties of the blockade with the help of China without being able to prevent it effectively.

Admittedly, it is less rewarding to control the actions and behavior of international competitors, to decode strategies or to track patent filings than to negotiate hostages, undertake geopolitical analysis, or target designations in the fight against terrorism. But in both cases, intelligence research is essential, whether it is to identify the enemy or to make reliable the positioning of companies in our country in the face of international competition.

9.2.3. Global intelligence

Intelligence practice should not be confined to strategic or financial areas. It is essential to go beyond Porter’s five strengths and market trends to focus on the global environment. Analysis of political, social and cultural developments can detect new opportunities. Comparing existing laws and practices can raise awareness of new rules of the game requiring adaptation and monitoring.

Thus, the Discovery [FON 11] procedure allows a US judge to claim jurisdiction over all parts of an operation carried out in a country placed by the government under control or embargo if the business has been conducted in dollars, the company is on the New York Stock Exchange, or if it uses an American partner, support or intermediary.

Refusal to comply results in criminal and financial proceedings and a ban on activities in the United States. Similarly, ITAR [USD 10] prohibits the export without a federal authorization of sensitive products in which there is at least one American coin. More than debatable in terms of international law, but imposed by force, on the basis of great principles recalled by benevolent NGOs, they collect huge fines and obtain useful information for the State and companies.

Understanding the economy and determining industrial or commercial goals means having good information. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, the Americans with the CIA and the NSA, or the Chinese of Goyangbu have perfectly understood and know how to mobilize their means to follow an industrial development, to identify financial flows, to facilitate a contractual negotiation or to influence standards. To achieve these goals, they do not hesitate to use all the means in their possession. Even the US Government the systematic practice of interceptions of communications of international companies by the NSA by invoking the fight against corruption.

9.2.4. Intelligence as global tool

Since Sun Tzu in The Art of War [SUN 03], we know that in the competition between states (or companies), intelligence is essential to create a defensible and sustainable competitive advantage. It is the best way to positively differentiate strategy, economics, technology, industry or commerce by the individual and global knowledge of one’s adversary, their environment and their way of acting.

All major strategists have used intelligence to define the most favorable moment, the most suitable place, the most effective means to fight with the best chance of success. But it also allows us to know and understand to act more effectively in conquering, defending or maintaining competitive positions.

Given that the essence of intelligence is to provide anticipatory capacity, its approach by the specialist must combine multiple approaches and respect a mandatory rule:

• – work in a forward-looking, reflective and real-time manner to have the ability to predict actions by anticipating them, to carry out an action in full preparation phase, or to launch an action in response to the events;
• – answer four questions requiring different methods of acquisition and analysis: the situation, the potential capacities, the intentions of the actors, the warning by early detection;
• – provide the person in charge of decision-making and maneuvering with information that must be factual and objective by never taking sides.

The intelligence makes it possible to refine each term of the strategic equation of André Beaufre (one of the great French military strategists) and to reduce the margin of uncertainty [BEA 12]:

S (strategy) = M (means) + H (people) + T (time) + alpha (chance coefficient)

This allows us to decode the international, because the strategy is developed according to the culture of the country. Let us remember General Giáp, commander of Viêt Minh forces in French Indochina (now Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos), against the French and Americans, whose bedside books were the battles of Napoleon he had the genius to adapt to his own situations.

Those with an Anglo-Saxon background favor the means (financial, military, communal, etc.), because they are convinced that strength is more important than any other factor. Those with a Latin background favor people, because they believe that one person can reverse the course of things, and that a small number of dedicated people (guerrillas) can destabilize a state (this is the principle of asymmetric wars [COU 02]). Those with an Asian background have a completely different vision; for them the main variable is time. We gain strength over time regardless of means and people. To explain this reality, let us remember the torture of the drop of water: a drop falling on your head is not a problem even if the drop of water is larger (more means), but if it falls on your head for hours and days, you will go crazy.

In fact, if we integrate these variables, we can no longer reason in the moment, because we must take into account the evolution of means and people over time. Finally, for the alpha coefficient or coefficient of chance, some Japanese authors say that it is the chance and the discussion is still ongoing, but French wisdom says that sometimes it does things well. Is it not simply the result of good information? In this context, let us remember the words of Frederick the Great: “It is pardonable to be defeated, but never to be surprised”.

In any case, the importance of intelligence is fundamental in building a winning strategy.

At the Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon had maps that did not highlight the sunken roads. In addition, his vision of the battlefield from its geographical position did not allow him to see them. Thus, when the French cavalry attacked the English positions, they fell into hollow roads and were decimated before being able to act.

In application of the Beaufre equation, any change of leader will change the relationship between the parameters and influence the strategy. Observe what happens in the United States since Barack Obama was replaced by Donald Trump. Some political commentators, even the leaders of some European countries, have not understood that, for the Republican Trump, the problem to be resolved as a priority is not that of values (such as for Clinton, Obama), but that of the economy and job creation.

9.3.1. Intelligence for everyone

The Snowden and Wikileaks cases showed those who doubted how capturing information of all kinds can build winning strategies at the economic level. But let’s not be fooled or naive. All major countries do the same with their means. To achieve the required level of economic knowledge, everyone can access the huge amount of data extracted from open sources by sophisticated data collection and analysis systems such as Palantir [LAU 16]. Note that this company, funded by DARPA and the CIA, was selected for use by the French General Directorate for Internal Security (DGSI), which indirectly raises problem of dependence or tools from elsewhere. But economically useful information is also obtained by other means available in cyberspace, such as eavesdropping and interception, or human, such as agents or whistleblowers.

Competitive intelligence through monitoring and analysis allows any company or any state to obtain useful data on their enemy or competitor. In our hypermediated world, through social networks and the help of search engines, most of a information on a subject is legally available to a person who knows how to look for them. The “benchmarking” technique, which involves obtaining prior figures and ratios from the other party, makes it possible to compare oneself, to detect weaknesses and strengths, and then to set the required objectives for improvement. The development of targeted efficiency will create an impassable rift by the competitor that will prevent a costly economic war.

Thus, through the joint practice of intelligence, securing its own business and influence, we will propose the best price/quality positioning and the best innovation compared to market expectations. The company will prevail without really having to fight. If the competitor is more efficient and not suspicious, a campaign of influence well focused on its defects will limit its impact, or better – destabilize it in the eyes of its market and consumers.

9.3.2. Weak and strong signals

The work done makes it possible to have an accurate picture of the situation and would have been considered successful a few years ago, but the needs have changed: today, we use the principle of video, that is to say research that evolves over time. The multiplication of available data and their evolution hour by hour constantly updates the work done. The current tools allow it without difficulty, it is necessary to redo the course of the cycle at a pace adapted to the evolution of the situation. Each round or new phase of research will enrich the synthesis of new information obtained. Thus, the constitution of the basic file and its constant updating by the additional elements brought by the watch allows us to have at any time a thorough knowledge of the situation. On request and at any time, the analyst will be able to provide the decision maker with a set of up-to-date information that decreases their risk of error by allowing them to have a clear view of the current situation.

At the same time, we can detect the slightest variation appearing in the file at each phase of the cycle. Whether it is an anomalous drift, an unexpected incident, or a difference compared to the existing one, it is remarkable because it is unusual. In the past, it would never have been identified because it would have drowned in the background noise. Recently, it was called a weak signal because it was poorly understood in the environment and much was expected of the analyst’s intuition to react. Today, a classic research is turned upside down by the contribution of Big Data analytics and new technologies (for a definition, see [SAS 17]). The mass processing of collected data will not only reveal signals that were not seen before, but pass other signals from a low frequency to a high frequency due to the mass of information.

Take the case of serial murders. We can now, over 20 years, enter into a system of treatment of all the known data related to these murders whether it is the place, the persons concerned, the entourage, the time, the date, etc. The processing of this data set will reveal invariants that will give new research leads. This is how combination with DNA analysis can be confused many years after criminals. Big Data gives tracks to go to suspects, DNA analysis (when there are traces of it) can then identify the culprits.

Of course, this implies an immediate exploitation by the analyst of the weak signal, become deafening, to draw the consequences. At this point, it is necessary to be suspicious, because some companies or states do not hesitate to participate in the circuit of fake news [WAR 17] in one form or another. For example, in the field of patents, some groups file deceptive patents that are made to guide competitors on false leads. In the same way, some scientific publications are designed to make others believe in technical advances that do not really exist to train colleagues and be able to be quiet about the real field of research.

9.3.3. The tools of intelligence

Modern tools for data discovery, selection and processing are evolving daily with the exponential growth of the capabilities of digital technologies and cyberspace. We are only at the beginning of a process revolution that will develop in the coming years. The need to be able to anticipate and act effectively requires the use of powerful and effective research and analysis tools that are costly because they need to be renewed often in light of rapid changes and technological breakthroughs. That’s why the UK with the GCHQ, the Americans with the NSA, have centralized in one place the possession and the use of these tools which makes it possible to reduce the cost, to use less of specialists and to carry out more experiments. But the purpose remains the same: in this chaos in permanent upheaval, the one who benefits from the intelligence provided by the best tools has a real competitive advantage.

The possibilities offered by algorithms in Big Data, traceability in the Internet of Things or the use of connected mobile devices, changes the treatment of competitive actions. The overall strategy not only defines the axis of effort, but deals very precisely with the intermediate objectives and the means by adapting them as new information arrives. It is the most efficient, the fastest and/or the best positioned who wins. But it can become so only through the permanent use of competitive intelligence tools constantly modernized. At this point many believe that only states are able to do so and are asking for close collaboration with their companies to help them in global competition. This is obviously a gross mistake, because some companies also have the capacity. As a result, GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft), which is richer than half of the world’s countries, has the potential to destabilize countries and other companies to preserve or develop their specific interests.

9.3.4. Sources of intelligence

Intelligence is characterized by the quality of its source, which is evaluated by its proximity to the origin of the information and its reliability. There are different types of sources that are defined by two criteria:

• – the level of accessibility that segments them:
  • - in white or open, that everyone can get at any time;
  • - in gray, the access of which is restricted to professionals able to find them;
  • - in black, that are prohibited from access outside of espionage actions that is to say illegal;
• – the means used differentiates them into human sources or technical sources such as those from electromagnetic intelligence (ROEM, ROIM) [WIK 17d].

There are even more open sources due to the internet and social networks, including forums, business networks, as well as those of professions, expert reports and institutions. The publication of business reports, including annual reports of publicly trading companies, CEO and coaching communications, competitor documents and their websites, event and conference event reports, as well as patent filings and external inquiries are a mine of information for those who know how to look for them. Holding files or knowing staff can also be very helpful.

Human sources remain the most effective way to obtain answers via dialog, conferences, questions or exchanges knowing that human beings always speak rather more than less. In this context, one must never neglect the fortuitous sources that can give the alert without realizing it.

Technical sources have become indispensable because in some areas they hold the information and in others they are the only ones who have the opportunity to acquire it.

The detection of the volumes of flows on the high voltage lines from electrical boxes placed on the ground makes it possible to know the real flows when one negotiates the sale of complementary electricity according to the needs of the supplier. We can add the impact of the production of wind turbines when we know by the weather the time of production peaks according to the estimated wind.

The same goes for coffee, where the next crop decreases considerably in case of frost in the region of production. The knowledge of the situation via satellite weather makes it possible to buy available coffee stocks immediately to the detriment of those informed by telephone or the Internet. In all these cases, the company that holds this technical information has a real competitive advantage.

9.3.5. Public/private collaboration in company intelligence

Everyone knows that big countries like China, Russia or the United States support their companies in winning contracts or defending competitive positions, by making available to them information collected by their various administrations.

Faced with this situation, the French intelligence community should take charge of the problem. It should define who should take a serious interest in competitive intelligence and think of ways to disseminate it to all those who have an interest in knowing it. We are still far off this, because absolute priority is given to terrorism and geopolitics. In addition, some departments generally keep the information they should share for themselves.

The order to seriously integrate competitive intelligence by the community as a whole should come from above to trigger the necessary awareness for effective implementation. Sooner or later, this will lead to the need to acquire the necessary means to search for, acquire and process information. This could lead, at the very least, to the creation of an open source data center common to all, the only cost-effective solution to rapidly gain the competitiveness and efficiency required in the face of international competition.

9.4.1. Decoding what we might notice to understand reality

The main objective of competitive intelligence is to understand what is really going on to give the decision-maker the keys. To this end, one must take a step backward to more clearly understand the subject and its context by remembering the Chinese saying: “when the wise man points at the Moon, the idiot looks at the finger.” The more we know each other’s ins and outs, the better we can anticipate and react.

Take the example of current US President Trump’s policy, which is a daily feature of French newspapers. On the basis of the information we have, we can place our action in a more global context. Since Tocqueville, we know that America is attached to certain values. We also know that it needs to mobilize against an enemy or for a great cause to develop its messianic vision of the world. Finally, we know that has been oscillating since its creation between the temptation of withdrawal so dear to James Monroe and that of politico-military expansion using the “hard” power of the Republicans and the “soft” power of the Democrats to impose it.

The then-president Kennedy, after the humiliation of Sputnik and then Gagarin’s spaceflight, set a goal of walking on the moon in 10 years. With this goal he mobilized all the forces and capabilities of American society in a revival of technological development at a time when growth was struggling. In the days of George Bush Sr., the apparent enemy was Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. In fact, the United States was convinced that its main oil supplier, Saudi Arabia, was going to be destabilized and that another production area needed to be controlled. Since Bill Clinton and especially since George W. Bush, apart from the global war against terrorism that has made it possible to pass protectionist laws in the United States, the chosen enemy was Russia. Although it is not very dangerous a opponent because of its low real military investment (US 716 billion, China 210 billion, Saudi Arabia 70 billion, Russia 65 billion and France 49 billion).

With the curent US President, everything changes. To decode his policy and his behavior, it must be borne in mind that he was above all a real estate “salesman” and therefore a person who deals with problems in sequence: we agree on a specific point, then we move on to the next and so on. It’s a mentality that you have to understand when you want to negotiate.

Hew was elected by underprivileged neighborhoods the subprime or 20% of the population, by the victims of mortgage crisis – those who have lost everything, but have kept their debts and must live in caravans without assistance from the state [BAR 16] – and by deep America who wants to preserve his “American dream”. His priority issue is therefore job creation in the United States, which involves reviving the national economy. He therefore wants to save money in foreign defense and international aid budgets by questioning anything that does not seem useful to him. As a businessman, every dollar invested must pay more than the stake. Moreover, he notes that the only country going beyond the United States is China, which puts Russia in the background despite military–democratic pressure. It is clear that he is a supporter of the doctrine of 5th US president James Monroe [HER 15] (developed in 1823 in the United States), and wants to leave his area only to be respected, hence the decrease or abandonment of a number of international activities or responsibilities. With this type of program, the president [USN 17], despite the blockages of his political enemies, will revive the US economy and create a number of jobs which will probably ensure his reelection. The French press did not understand this change, because it reasons with references linked to the democratic policy of Clinton and Obama.

On the international front, the current US president, upon his election, received Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, showing that the United States will remain associated with Japan for surveillance and control of the area. The welcome of the British Prime Minister Theresa May, directs a choice of alliance that puts Europe in front of its responsibilities: the reinforced defense with the UK post-Brexit will have as counterpart a partial disengagement of the NATO that is dear to Europeans. At the same time, the significant tax cut promoted by the president will be a strong bargaining chip with the Europeans when they leave England.

On the domestic front, the President wants to repatriate to the United States the jobs created by American companies abroad. Hence the threat of an import tax of 35%, while at the same time deciding a lowering of corporate expenses. In addition, there is very low cost energy since the United States became independent with the exploitation of shale gas at a cost of US$ 30–40 per barrel. All this led companies like General Motors or Ford to repatriate factories based in Mexico to the United States. The energy policy of the United States also helps to understand the movements of OPEC. This organization believed that by lowering the price of oil to US$ 50 a barrel would prevent the development of shale gas in the United States. On the contrary, the research and exploitation of this type of gas made it possible to continue to drive down the cost to an unachievable level for OPEC, forcing it to change its strategy. No longer looking for American buyers, they have increased the price per barrel for other “customers” who are forced to go through them.

It is this type of decoding, based on the information available to everyone, but exploited by very little, which makes it possible to understand what is happening and to start a real strategic reflection. It is necessary to take the height and abandon the vision by the “small end of the spyglass”, to place oneself in a broader context which makes it possible to understand the facts and actions in their entirety.

Let us add that this analysis of the American policy is visibly that made by the Chinese president Xi Jinping which led him to come to the summit of Davos and as opposed to the inner fold of the United States to propose for China a role more open, a globalist strategy characterized, for example, by the Silk Road (OBOR), which helps internal development in connection with external development [FRA 17].

9.4.2. The intelligence cycle

Intelligence practice is essential because it underpins action. Its effectiveness is based on the respect of fundamental rules to be implemented successively in a cycle of intelligence which is permanent, because the file must be perpetually completed and enriched by the new information collected.

Unlike State intelligence, competitive intelligence must respect legality and some nostalgic people may regret it. This is forgetting that 95% of the existing information in the world on any person or any activity is legally accessible to anyone who knows how to look for it. The main barrier is that of language, because one cannot explore data banks or interact on social networks without knowing and practicing it. This is why machine translation tools have become a strategic issue that favors those who benefit from them. The second is that of culture, because to interpret a behavior or a reasoning implies knowing its origin and to understand its environment. Finally, we must be able to cover all areas and deal with all types of information, because intelligence is global: it concerns science, technology, the market, competitors, leaders, the environment, etc. The method for obtaining the blue of Flemish painters was of as much economic interest for the time as the use of traditional machines to make Calais lace today.

At this stage, we must also specify the necessary terminology to avoid confusion, because, semantically, words have meaning. That which is proposed by the French Armaments Council is the most interesting. Raw elements of all kinds, stored in an indefinite place in one form or another, are considered neutral data. When they have been selected, transferred and grouped together on one or more sites, this is information considered useful. Once cross-checked, validated, analyzed and synthesized, the data become information. Thus, information alone is of little interest because it is intelligence which is valuable, given it helps to create a competitive advantage.

Obtaining information useful to the decision-maker goes through a number of steps that must be followed if you want to be effective. The use of current digital technologies makes it possible to work on much more data and faster, but the diagram remains the same and can be applied as a method of reasoning or as an operational technique.

9.4.3. Knowing oneself

Before taking an interest in the outside world, one must first obtain the most rigorous and objective knowledge possible of one’s own activity and those who work there. This is an essential prerequisite, as it allows one to identify one’s strengths and weaknesses and to judge one’s actual level of competitiveness. Given the extent of the flaws detected, the result of this analysis may lead to privileging internal improvements first before considering the global competition.

9.4.4. Definition of the research framework

The first step is to define the framework for the action. For this, it is necessary to know precisely the intention and the objectives of the strategist or the decision-maker in the long term. As Seneca said, “there is no favorable wind for the sailor who doesn’t know where to go”. This makes it possible to draw the limits of the research by ensuring the integration of all the actors, real and potential, as well as their environment. Experience shows that competitors and market trends are taken into account, that we neglect potential new entrants and changes in legal and behavioral rules, and that we have great difficulty in imagining substitute products resulting from technological or societal breakdowns. The precise definition of the targeted domain and the chosen size is essential, because if it is too small, it will hide certain opportunities or threats, while if too great it will drown you under the excess of useless information.

9.4.5. Prospective vision

Foresight is fundamental to clarify and define the field of action. It is this which makes it possible to imagine and develop alternative strategies. Starting from the framework of the first step and the defined objectives, it is necessary to imagine all possible scenarios in a medium–long term to identify all that could impact our research framework.

In the 18th Century, the journey from Paris to Marseille was realized in several weeks, in the 19th Century the train took 24 hours, then cars did it in two days before the highway reduced it to 8 to 10 hours. The plane created a break with a time of three hours (one hour to go to the airport, a one hour flight, and one hour to get to one’s meeting point), then arrived the TGV that allows a connection in three hours from center to center, with the possibility to work on the train, so to be productive during the travel period. Foresight announces the arrival of the “tube” or “hyperloop” [GUI 15]; that is to say a kind of rocket moving in a vacuum tube and going at 1000km/h, hence a link time of 30 minutes. Tests are currently in progress and it will start operationally at the end of the decade. Thus, the possible scenarios change over time by technological changes in the modes of travel. But it is also necessary to take into account alternative scenarios of complete behavioral changes such as the development of video conferencing, which is constantly improving with probably a longer-term holographic presence of the actors.

This is therefore a very important step, as it enables new entrants to be identified, possible breaks and foreseeable changes in the near or far environment. It is imperative to evaluate their level of occurrence and their consequences that will have to be taken into account in research and analysis. It is too often forgotten by practitioners whose vision is polluted by ambient “short-termism”.

The horizon of politics ends at the next election, that of the leader to the quarterly or annual result, or that of the editor of the newspaper. The strategist must know how to overcome these limits. Instead of living and working in the moment, you have to take a step back and project yourself into a longer time through the use of projection techniques and scenario logic. We must be aware that, in the long term, with the tools and data at our disposal, it is predictive ability that will make the difference.

9.4.6. The research plan

The framework being defined with its possible evolutions, it is necessary to elaborate a research plan by identifying all the sites likely to hold useful data and the means to be implemented to reach them in the respect of legality. The digitization of the world and the growing confusion between what is held by the public and the private sector allows us to go further.

Where the beginner will be content with a semantic search using a classic search engine, the professional will deepen his research using all available links and expanding the scope to conceptual research. Beyond open sources, they will look at gray sources and all the possibilities offered at national or international level by different types of social networks, databanks, “clouds”, not to mention the Internet of Things.

After constitution of the basic file, it is this research plan which will allow the setting up of a permanent watch with adapted sensors.

9.4.7. Collecting data

Today, research is essentially digital and uses all the resources of Big Data in cyberspace. Every day, the development of open source processing capacity, relying on the use of targeted algorithms and ever more efficient software, makes it possible to discover and select more useful elements. In this context, scanning the web and collecting data will be more effective if the search area has been perfectly defined. Data collection must focus on useful data to avoid ending up with a surplus that must be unnecessarily cross-checked for quality so as not to use or publish false information.

This primarily technical approach revolutionized the world of classical intelligence whose main support was the use of networks of informants constituted in time by agents. They had constructed them using at best four of the key parameters of human behavior summarized by the acronym MISE (money, ideology, sex, ego) [WIK 17c]. The multiplicity of sectors covered made it possible to detect topics of potential interest and to react quickly to the requests of decision-makers. Today, we must not neglect this traditional approach that has been proven for centuries. If technological means are systematically used first, we will always need to supplement or test their results with human intelligence.

A common misconception in the intelligence community has been that the all-digital could replace the human with the advantage of reducing the risk to staff and contractors. The Americans owe this realization in part to 9/11 and the French to the errors of appreciation of Libya and Syria. To privilege the machine or to refuse an inconvenient reality is a natural tendency of the decision maker against which it is necessary to fight.

We have a good example in the Second World War with the story of Richard Sorge [STR 11], spy of the Soviet Union in Japan. As he was very friendly with the German ambassador, he was able to learn, two months before the date, that Germany was going to invade Russia. This information, which gave Stalin time to act, was not believed by officials who considered that the German–Soviet pact guaranteed them safety against any invasion.

9.4.8. Data cross-checking

Data recovery leads to overlap, because it must be validated by selecting and prioritizing the most credible sources after verification. Fake news [WAR 17] does not exist only in politics. Some competitors do not hesitate to launch false tracks while some media, by insufficiency or by ideology, and take virtualities for realities. Let’s not forget that on average, 20% of the information we hear or read every day is false [MAN 16], mainly as a result of the techniques used by those who inform us. The investigative journalist who validates his sources has been replaced by the exploitation of the press agency press release, via search engines, digital dictionaries or other tools, with the consequence of the possibility of integrating errors from each of these sources. Cross-checking is therefore an essential and difficult phase that involves checking the quality of the data, their sources and their importance. False information pollutes the entire analysis, but a rejection of useful information can remove its interest.

This is a well-known problem of investigators and the courts dealing with witnesses who explain and tell the facts based on their personal observation and recollection. It is by cross-checking the facts recounted by different witnesses that we can form a picture close to reality.

The cross-checking of sources and data to verify their reliability implies the practice of constructive doubt, which is the first method of verification. A good principle is to never spontaneously believe everything that one is told. If the source is unique, be wary, knowing that the intelligence base is to cross-check information from different sources.

9.6.1. From adequacy to expectations

The person in charge of the strategy or tactic must receive the information they expect in due time and in the right form. Experience shows that in the absence of a link and a permanent dialog between the analyst and the recipient(s), there is progressively an operational drift between the expected and the received. The transmitter has their own interests and the receiver sees their need and their priorities change according to the evolution of the situation. This is why each message must allow the applicant to express their level of satisfaction with the expectations so that the analyst can permanently correct or adapt the framework, the orientations, the size and the precision of the contents as well as the form of the analysis sent. In addition, there is hardly ever a single recipient in the dissemination of information, which will require differentiation of the message sent, focusing on the points of interest of each, or to prioritize the receivers by focusing on their priorities. Keep in mind that if you regularly give someone information that does not concern them, they will not read anything. As a result, very important information will be eliminated before being considered.