2
Geopolitics and Strategic Intelligence
2.1. Principles of analysis
In order to make CI truly work, we have to go beyond both business and competitive environments. It requires a curiosity that embraces all areas that can influence or impact the analysis and scenarios of the future from culture to geopolitics. It is also important to have absolute neutrality that requires ignoring our personal preoccupations. The absence of bias guarantees quality and depth of the analysis of information and overviews. This provides the most objective and complete production possible from which the decision-maker can make a choice and build upon their strategy [WIK 18a].
2.1.1. Getting to the point
Often a methodical analysis of the international press by cross-checking the assertions of each and every one of them makes it possible to discover or decode the underside of the cards. Therefore, the situational study of the major planetary actors makes it possible to better understand the initial positions of each. A few key elements are usually sufficient to draw up the framework for analysis.
Faced with the rise of China as their direct competitor [DEL 17] – and inevitably becoming the world’s largest economic power – the United States needs allies while relying on technological innovations that give them leadership in some key areas. In this context, contrary to what one might perceive, Russia and the United States, providing they want to, have a mutual interest in collaborating in order to develop their economies in the face of this threat.
The problem of Siberia is fully in line with this logical requirement. Confronted with increasingly harsh local working conditions due to the impact of global warming on permafrost (mosquitoes, diseases, methane pollution), it is Chinese people who come to work en masse instead of the Russians. This growing migration will ultimately generate claims of ethnic belonging to China, or aspirations for further partnership with the sister country.
In order to combat this threat to their energy stock and to safeguard their strategic importance, Russia will have to create both economic and military links with Europe and the United States. We can see this through calls by Russian presidents to improve cooperation with Europe, which were advocated by French President de Gaulle, as well as German chancellor Schroeder, but quickly opposed by American Democrat presidents, neo-conservatists and their European allies or spokespeople.
The United States wish to continue developing their trade links with the Chinese market and so they want to continue to view Russia as their natural enemy in manipulating public opinion as we saw during the worst moments of the Cold War [SOU 17, ZEI 17]. It was this vision of the future that led, at the dawn of his mandate, President Donald Trump and his team to consider a strategic reconciliation that placed him in total opposition to the Democrats and part of the Republicans.
At the same time, according to the Monroe Doctrine [MAY 17], the United States could live in a secure environment without having to care for others thanks to their self-sufficiency in oil and gas. At the international level, apart from securing their intangible bases of support, such as Israel and their strategic external bases, this leads them to reduce their consumption of military or civilian means wherever they are not ahead of China, as well as Russia. This is why they encourage locals (the European Union, Saudi Arabia, Africa) to take over by investing in their defense and development.
We can add that realism leads them to fragment the possibilities of regional powers allowing the creation of a powerful pole that can oppose their strategy. In this context, they allow for development or provoke oppositions as we saw in the north of Europe with Ukraine or in the Balkans. After encouraging the creation of the Slovenian and Croatian states with Germany, they contributed to the explosion of the entire area and led to the creation of a mafia state in Kosovo [BRA 17]. The same destabilizing process is taking place in the Middle East between Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and Egypt.
2.1.2. Having an open mind
The great drama of today is that we live in the moment without truly knowing enough to understand the ins and outs of the crises we face [LEA 17].
The war in Syria began with a selection of plans to build two gas pipelines, one from Iran and the other from Qatar [JUN 16]. Iran wanted to install a gas terminal on the Syrian Alawite coast, opening traffic through the Mediterranean, while Qatar simply wanted to cross Syria to connect with Turkey on the South stream from Azerbaijan to Europe. Less than a month after the pro-Iranian choice of Syria, the unrest began.
Where competitive intelligence is concerned, it is important to keep an open mind and to not give way to certain ideologies. We currently find ourselves in an evolving world in a state of complete and permanent reconstruction, different to what we might have forecasted in the past. We might have thought that following the fall of the Berlin Wall, everything would evolve into a sort of universal democracy inspired by our model, yet we were unfortunately wrong. Globalization of economy, exchanges and ideas shows how limited we are [REB 17]. Coca-Cola for everyone is no longer the only proof. In other words, we might have common interests, but different expectations.
As the world moves progressively from bipolarity to multipolarity, our traditional European approach no longer fits in with the current state of affairs. As is the case for many older nations, France is finding it difficult to accept changes that actively disrupt learned behaviors. At the same time, this does not seem to pose a problem for emerging low-income countries.
In France, the telephone was developed based on a system of wires. With the advent of the cell phone, we had to find a way for both systems to live side-by-side, leading to organizational problems, a loss of time, and excessive consumption of our resources. In low-income countries, however, the same problems were not encountered given that the cell phone emerged without any precedent of telephone communication, and without the same constraints and costs. This is why the African continent is ahead of Europe in terms of the competence of smartphone users. The smartphone also contributes to the digital transformation of Africa, allowing for the development of various sector models, including an original banking system [ATT 14].
In order to understand how the world is in a period of such drastic change, we only need to consider the rise in power of start-ups who have novel ways of working, as well as the fact that there are different modes of finance, and incredibly short-term and risky development policies within the world of business.
Within this chaotic context, the role of politics is to give a new and long-term vision, allowing us to forecast, while administrations manage the daily routine. This goal-driven vision creates hope and drive, as this capacity for hope is a fundamental part of motivation. Refusing to look beyond the horizon of the next election or the annual balance sheet generates the gloomy routine typical of those who live in the short term without great intentions.
2.1.3. Knowing how to decode information
We must therefore learn to decode information from a multipolar world that refuses to give way to a hegemonic power relationship imposed by some of the actors. This departure from a traditional framework, which is accompanied by the development of protectionist measures and bilateral agreements, generates new trends and new practices. We must take them into account even if they oppose our traditional patterns and contradict our fundamental ways of working, as well as our references.
Information travels at a very high speed. In less than eight days, it can make laps around the whole of France, but the receiver does not always know if this information broadcast is true or false. The difficulty lies in finding out whether it is true, or whether it might be the result of manipulation.
Our mindset is very different from what it was a few decades ago. Everyone today has access to information, everyone wants to build their own opinion from their own research without having to listen to others. The expert plays the role of authenticator in giving their opinion, but everyone knows that the experts rarely agree among themselves. It becomes difficult to identify the truth and this creates a climate of mistrust and widespread suspicion.
In the past, we listened to politicians because they were part of the few who were in the know and had a grip on the information available. Today they face growing mistrust by the population who think that they are manipulating information for their own benefit or for their party or political faction. Speaking truthfully is considered an exception.
It might also be added that the credibility of shared information implies not limiting its outline to the elements supporting one’s demonstration.
Migration fluxes are the subject of varying different opinions depending upon those who choose to comment on this issue and who often forget the basics of such a question. The displacement of people is not new and has existed since the dawn of humanity, from poor regions to richer regions, hostile regions to welcoming regions, politically precarious regions to those who enjoy liberal ideologies, war-torn regions to those enjoying peace. This will never cease to be the case, including even possible human migration to other planets. The decrease in these fluxes is dependent exclusively upon changes to the environment and links to the attractiveness of certain regions. These fluxes do not necessarily move from the global South to the North, but work in all directions according to where humans have the best quality of life, be it across a collection of countries or continents, or the planet as a whole. That criminal or terrorist organizations exploit these unfortunate people throughout their journey is an avatar of varying intensity that must be fought. That their reception is inversely proportional to the number of arrivals given the traditional fear of the foreigner in almost all the structured societies is indeed a reality. However, we must not confuse conjunctural realities to be treated as such with the permanence of migratory flows [MAZ 16].
2.1.4. Learning how to sort through information
We have a lot more access to data nowadays; especially given that it is progressively digitalized and indexed. The way in which it is sorted through software and algorithms is becoming faster, allowing us to have access to more information. Internet links, as well as social network dialogs are becoming commonplace on a global level.
Beyond this exponential acquisition of information, this global craze is due to the fact that people work more and more alone and have fewer opportunities to exchange, potentially disrupting their working methods. The human being is a sociable animal that needs to live in a group [VAN 17]: the development of social networks partially makes up for this lack of contact. But there remains the need to vibrate together, to share emotions, hence the success of major sporting, cultural or other events and their impact on our fellow citizens.
We have now entered a world where the static image is replaced by the dynamism of videos and the traditional book by its summarized version on Wikipedia. We are no longer content with seeing a moment frozen in time; we want to put it into motion and – better still – relive it on a permanent basis, which involves mastering such a technique. The ability to access knowledge disrupts social relationships and differentiates individuals according to their ability to integrate the digital world. Today, there is a social divide based on economics and illiteracy, but tomorrow it will be the digital divide that will make the difference.
In research and information processing, we are facing the same problem. We must constantly update our sources, the elements collected and how we analyze them for the most up-to-date and accurate intelligence. Those who cannot adapt or do not have the tools to cope with this evolution will be eliminated or, at the very least, marginalized.
But it is no use kidding ourselves: the availability of fields of knowledge of unequaled magnitude does not mean that the receiver is able to extract the true substance and transform it into knowledge. In addition, our daily practice as an information-consuming spectator leads us to look at events and isolate them from their context, which makes their objective analysis difficult, if not impossible.
2.2. The evolving world
Our world is currently evolving according to six main trends that we must build into our reflections as they influence facts and how we interpret them.
2.2.1. The increasing power of the individual
Contrary to the assertions of NGOs that have made a business out of the current state of world poverty, at the global level, the decline in the poverty index set at US $ 2 per day, or US $ 60 per month, is spectacular. In 25 years, it has decreased from 43% to 10%, which requires a change in the way in which we view the world. This reduction in the global poverty rate leads to the development of a middle class that generates a change of behavior with respect to health, the role of women and education. This also leads to an increase in the population, which has an impact on food and energy. Paradoxically, there is an increase in the level of relative poverty in some developed countries such as France (from 10 to 14%) or the United States, which poses potential problems surrounding dysfunctional political models which are currently practiced [FÖR 16].
Far from stereotyping, but simply to be effective, it is necessary to understand at what stage the country or the environment find themselves; this through adopting local culture and habits.
The significant change in women’s access to decision-making roles is changing our societal models of society management, which are generally different from our own perceptions. In Mali, for example, people still may travel 5 km to search for water from the community well, yet will come home and watch the television, or use their cell phones, which is now becoming a way of paying for things on the continent.
Given that the digital age has given us more full-fledged access to information, each and every individual can forge their own opinions more easily. Furthermore, the globalization of the circulation of information also makes it possible, even in China, to cover up, over time, important information. In the modern world, we are witnessing a rise in the power of individuals and their use of social networks, which are sometimes manipulated; and of NGOs, which are often manipulated, facing states that have more and more difficulty in establishing and legitimizing their power.
In almost all areas, the individual becomes more and more independent and will have fewer and fewer constraints. They refuse imposed or unmotivated instructions, which calls into question tribal, clan or hierarchical structures based on the possession of the right kind of information acquired by transmission or experience. Even at the military level, one must explain, as well as convince people to carry out, the mission at hand. The state is there to guide and not to regulate or be the one to stop individual reflections and initiatives [BEZ 15].
2.2.2. The evolution of power relationships
2.2.2.1. The military
Total war between two countries or blocks is becoming less frequent. However, we are witnessing local wars between states, as well as rebellions inspired by ideology, other states or private groups. This destabilizing situation, dependent upon an intensive disinformation, is made possible through the easy access to arms at a reduced cost.
Local wars generated by mining companies to gain exploitation rights or control production areas are a reality in some parts of the world [WIL 15]. A clear example of this can be found in the repetitive Ituri conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which can be explained by the will of the English-speaking parties, continued by Uganda and Rwanda by controlling the production of coltan and ore from which we can extract niobium and tantalum used in mobile telephones [MON 02].
With a much bigger military budget than France, Great Britain, Germany, Russia and China put together, the United States have, for a long time, been at the forefront of military investment. However, this extraordinary military power has not necessarily led to a winning streak in the last 50 years. Furthermore, for about half a century, we can see that military power does not ensure, or even guarantee victory. Indeed, this power makes it possible to scale it up and exert pressure but not to win. This is why hard power is gradually being replaced by soft power, which is more effective and more insidious by including influence [ROD 17].
2.2.2.2. Geopolitics
In the 21st Century, populations and states have been grouping together by affinity, constituting homogeneous poles (geography, climate, language, culture, religion, social relations, energy wealth, etc.). We are witnessing the creation of blocks in Asia, Africa, Central America or South America, all of which have specificities that lead to a certain appreciation, as well as different expectations from others. This multipolarity must lead us to change our way of seeing and understanding, and we must guide each person to realize certain expectations, without trying to impose what might seem better from our perspective.
After centuries of the establishment and development of colonial empires, as well as the 20th Century based on the Western dream of globalization of trade, there will be a change leading to bilateral agreements based on the balance of exchanges between partners and competitors.
In this global context, we are witnessing a decline in the influence of traditional states while emerging powers are evolving very quickly.
In 20 years, France and Germany will no longer be among the 10 most powerful countries and will have been replaced by others like Nigeria, the flag bearer of African development, or South Africa. Whatever the speed of evolution, one thing is certain: Westerners are no longer the center of the world [BAD 16].
Beyond alliances and power struggles, permanent changes of varying magnitude, as a result of the problems discussed in this chapter, make it difficult to analyze and often prevent a clear result.
Hidden behind the compliments of President Donald Trump given to the newly elected President of Taiwan, is the relationship with China that is at stake. It reverses the classical view to show the Chinese that the United States can act in its own sphere of influence. It is therefore normal that they react to this evolution of the threat by maneuvers in the China Sea and accelerate the securing of their maritime routes of energy supplies. When we look at the Middle East, we see that local countries have complex positions in which the United States play a divisive role. Turkey is moving toward Islamism, working with Russia and Iran, but is the home of NATO military bases. Saudi Arabia is pushed by the United States to act against Qatar, which has a large US military base. Iran, which will become a major power, is rejected by the United States, who have forgotten the Irangate [RIG 15] in which the United States provided Iran with arms against Iraq passing through Israel. They see only the nuclear aspect weakening the strategic position of the Israeli ally which is the only country to have disposed with it in the region. There is therefore a complexity which acts in the second degree and shows that there are links that are insufficiently considered if one is satisfied with a primary or schematic analysis.
2.2.2.3. Economy and finance
The analysis of recent conflicts shows that, in order to achieve victory, a major economic action must be developed at the same time as the evolution of practices becomes a priority. On the other hand, the epicenter of economic power is shifting from west to east across the Pacific.
Certain emerging countries such as Indonesia will soon become part of the 10 most powerful countries in the world. If we add Taiwan, China, Korea, Japan and India, over 50% of the world economy will be centered in Asia in about 15 years’ time. Opposite them, we can see North America and, to a lesser extent, Africa. A fragmented Europe would only be an additional asset, as opposed to a major power; if it were united, however, it might be able to tip the balance.
The free movement of various different forms of capital remains a major problem at a time when movements of the dollar are being controlled by binding extraterritorial court rules. In addition, there is the case of Brexit, in which London plays its role as the financial capital of Europe, with, in case of failure, a loss of power that will affect the financing of the economy and the activities in England.
Of the five major world banks, we find four Chinese banks and the American bank JP Morgan. We do not find any European banks in this mix due to the fact that their world profits have reduced from 47% to 16% in just 10 years.
In this context, the possibilities of using the dollar, which is the world currency of reference having replaced the gold standard, is a key strategy of the Americans.
We are now experiencing the beginning of the end of the Bretton Woods system where the dollar had become the safe haven. To be less dependent on US policy, the big emerging countries want to see a bunch of currencies replace the dollar standard. In such a context, the American deficit, now financed by the rest of the world, would become an increasingly significant handicap for the country, which explains its concern to maintain the status quo by breaking any hint of change, including by certain means using extraterritoriality. On the other hand, the Chinese cannot afford to put on the market the tenth of the US Treasuries they hold without also putting themselves in danger.
We must consider current situations and likely changes, but we must also add the links that are becoming more complex between the different actors, whether they are states or companies: today we can be friends, allies or partners in one domain and competitors or enemies in another.
In the automotive world, bodywork and design are very diversified, but the construction of engines remains the prerogative of some companies whose shareholders are the user platforms. We share the highest costs generated by an essential activity, but which do not bring any real differentiation, to invest the margin released on the rest.
We should also not forget the cyber war which is currently destabilizing both the services of the state and those of businesses, or even the destruction of certain resources, such as during the hacking of the French television channel TV5Monde1 [HÉR 15] or the cessation of activity due to denial of service attacks. This cyber activity may be linked to states, as was revealed by Edward Snowden [AND 16], but also to private hacking groups acting on their own, or due to outsourcing.
Power relations between countries are beginning to change, but we must not forget the power of multinationals, paying close attention to the GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft) giants, and their Chinese equivalents. We should point out that the 50 most powerful multinational companies are more powerful than 50% of states around the world, creating potential problems if they move further away from the rules and ethical concerns of their countries of residence.
2.2.2.4. Population trends
We often talk about the youth factor and the problems caused by a population which is mainly less than 25 years old, even if these problems are echoed at the other end of the spectrum, given an increasingly aging population. Our world is currently experiencing a general increase in the average age of its citizens, forcing us to reconsider the situation and its impact on food, the economy and health [RAI 16].
At the end of the previous century, apart from in Japan and Germany, there were very few countries whose median age exceeded 45 years old. Nowadays, there are many more countries in this category. It will therefore be necessary to provide this population with new means that are expensive where the rate of growth is low.
Alongside the aging population of rich countries, Africa now has a population of around 1.2bn people, representing a 50% increase in the number of people on the continent, with an increasing power of young people who have particular expectations and needs.
Unlike China, where high growth rates directly benefited the economy, as the birth rate was controlled, the 7% average growth in African GDP announced will be partially absorbed by population growth. We cannot compare the two areas and we must think about the integration of data on their respective developments.
The German inability to maintain a fertility rate to maintain the population size means that in 2040, France could have a greater population than Germany. This is what motivated Angela Merkel to welcome migrants with the hope that their higher fertility rate would restore the balance of the population in favor of Germany. At the other side of the world, China has just changed the children-per-household policy from only one child to two, remaining the most populous country in the world, having to cope with the aging population and to maintain a sufficient workforce. We can also find parallels of the situation in India and its growing population.
In the future, more than 50% of the world’s population will live in megacities [ALL 17]. We will see developing cities of more than 30 million inhabitants in Asia and Africa, as we see today in São Paulo, Mexico City or Shanghai. These cities will have to be managed differently and independently. They will be states within states, facing specific problems ranging from insecurity and the supply of energy to food or water supplies.
We can get an idea of these new problems by looking at Rio de Janeiro. Separated by a street, chic neighborhoods like Ipanema and Leblon, in which the life expectancy is 70 years old, coexist with miserable favelas where one does not exceed 35 years old. The result is permanent insecurity, but also large-scale violence in social relations between these two groups of city dwellers who live together.
2.2.2.5. Food and energy needs
With a world population that will continue to grow, we will have, in the coming years, additional needs of more than 40% of water, more than 50% of energy and more than 35% of food [FIS 17]. We must also consider gigantic remediation projects, such as those related to pollution of rivers in India and China, or in France with agriculture and livestock that have introduced nitrates, polluting the water table. This will lead to managing new situations that can lead to situations of conflict.
The Syrian Golan Heights, occupied by the Israelis since the 1967 war, are strategic for the water supply of the Sea of Galilee and Jordan which are of vital importance for the agriculture of the Israeli–Jordanian–Palestinian region. Similarly, the gradual disappearance of the Dead Sea or Lake Chad enters this field of reflection by its impact on the lives of its nearby inhabitants. Current Egyptian–Ethiopian tensions are based on the construction of a giant dam on the Nile river that could prevent or weaken the irrigation potential of the Nilotic basin in Egypt. Each time this can lead to a local or regional war.
The need for raw materials and energy explain, among other things, the migration of some Chinese people to Siberia. It also explains the purchase of farmland in Australia or Africa by China.
Renewable energies, while generally more expensive than fossil fuels, are a suitable solution for many developing countries that refuse nuclear power for safety reasons or initial cost reasons. Conversely, the United States is not wholly concerned by this because it is currently self-sufficient in energy.
Morocco has little oil and gas and has therefore developed solar power plants that will produce electricity at a lower cost than nuclear power in France. In Africa, the Senegal River Basin will see its economic future disrupted by the construction of various hydraulic structures to produce energy and develop irrigation capacity over the next 15 years.
We must not make the wrong decisions or wish to progress too quickly under the pressure of politicians, the media or NGOs.
In Germany, the Chancellor’s abrupt abandonment of nuclear power for electoral reasons was considered a step forward. However, this led to the reopening of coal plants. Since German mines have been emptied, they buy coal from the United States, which now use shale gas and oil for their needs. As this coal is very rich in sulfur, air pollution has increased significantly in Germany, as well as in neighboring countries including eastern France [MEY 17].
2.2.2.6. The digital future
As we have already mentioned, the growing digitalization revolution is disrupting the status quo. It means that there is greater power transferred from the State to the individual, meaning that there is a higher degree of shared knowledge. Digitalization also means giving individuals access to training courses in the form of e-learning, as well as having access to networks of specialists and forums. From the ease of access to information to treatment of Big Data through algorithms, we have to rethink the way we work, as well as reflecting upon and apprehending potential problems. A good example of this can be found in the array of solutions for improvement proposed by the Smart City concept [KAL 17].
Cell phones that work differently from traditional telephone devices will soon become irreplaceable. Whereas in Europe there are certain obstacles, such as payment by telephone, which are linked to the “profitability of using a credit card”, these kinds of barriers do not exist on the African continent.
The arrival of Web 3.0, allowing objects to interact with each other and thus have dialog, as well the introduction of 4.0, will indeed broaden our field of research and our ability to act.
In not much time at all, cars will be able to interact with their engineers in order to relay information about potential faults, including the security of traffic flows, or with trackers placed on roads to promote safety when driving. The French National Commission on Informatics and Liberty (CNIL) [WIK 18c] is being overrun and we need to consider all new possibilities.
Social networks are developing everywhere. The United States is at the forefront of this development, followed by emerging countries: Brazil, China, India and Indonesia. With no European country included in this list, Europe finds itself more and more marginalized.
With quantum computers, the field of possibilities and the speed of treatment will be multiplied giving us access to unsuspected capacities today. Far from any philosophical reflections, we have no choice: we must adapt and take advantage of these new technologies to be more competitive.
2.3. A changing world
In the current climate characterized by crises, we realize that we are facing a complete change of system. We see that productivity will increase, but at the same time, these new developments will no longer be able to ensure full employment. We will have to replace low-skilled jobs that will not be affected by this increase in productivity, but we still do not know how to do so. At present, global unemployment is expected to affect 1/7th of the population, or about 15%. We will have to find new solutions.
The European Community cannot find an effective consensus solution among its 27 members with diverging interests. The revival of its development obviously involves a more structured and coherent Europe of a dozen states. If we fail to counter this two-speed Europe, other countries will follow the British path and the decline of the continent will begin.
In China, the increase in the standard of living leads to the rapid development of a middle class since each year, the equivalent of the population of France reaches the European standard of living. At the same time, China is moving from a system of economic growth where wealth has been created by exporting low-cost goods to a system where the same wealth will be created from the growth of the domestic market. Our media did not understand this rupture, because it is the first time that a country has tried such a change of course to preserve its independence.
Benefiting from a high demographic growth and a democratic system adapted to its specificities, India will be the second world power by 2050 if it manages to solve the problem of castes which constitute a powerful brake on the level of development. It will also have to invest in the field of security and assume its responsibilities in the surrounding geographical areas.
2.3.1. International institutions
The multinational institutions created by the victors after the Second World War are disappearing. Emerging countries are questioning a system whose purpose is to reinforce Western hegemony, and the main donors no longer want to finance organizations that do not work in their favor. This is why an organization like the WTO has not achieved any significant agreements for 15 years. Other organizations, such as the UN, OECD or UNESCO will have to reconsider how they are structured and to act quickly for fear of falling into obscurity.
The withdrawal of US funding from UNESCO as well as the criticism of the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) by the United States [FOU 17] falls within this framework.
2.3.2. Bilateral agreements
While searching for a better trade balance, we are starting to replace the multilateral with the bilateral; or with agreements made between groups of countries. In this context, it is necessary to take into account the real capacities of the countries and some of their cultural traits.
In China, counterfeiting does not mean anything, because the same word is used for copy and creation. In the art of calligraphy, the copy aims to reach the same level of perfection as the master copy. Reaching this artistic communion is the pinnacle of creation. It is therefore difficult to be considered harmful by producing a successful counterfeit.
2.4. Increased risks
2.4.1. Climate risks
Rising temperatures are a slow and inexorable process that will cause rapid changes at the global level. Whether this result is due to human activities or a cyclical evolution in the life of our planet is the subject of expert discussion, but the fact still remains. Its indisputable impact requires strategic thinking through competitive intelligence [HAR 17].
In Sahelian zones, a rise in temperature of one degree leads to a substantial spread of the desert on to fertile grounds. In Asia, two- to three-degree growth is changing the monsoon process and impacting rice production. In most countries of the world, water management and distribution problems also occur and, for some countries, we witness a change in the formation of the coasts due to the rise in sea levels.
2.4.2. Risks linked to resources
Conflicts become more and more linked to the economy. Rare resources will generate conflicts that will be linked to their exploitation and will have a real impact on the political and investment levels. We often talk about oil and minerals, but we must not forget the management of water or environmental crime that can put some species or regions into danger.
In Somalia, marine pollution from the dumping of toxic waste has triggered the process of piracy by local fishermen. The drying up of Lake Chad destabilizes local populations and bordering countries and opens the door to risks that are not necessarily identified and measured.
2.4.3. Medical risks
When the standard of living increases, the standard of medicine must also increase. This leads to the eradication of certain diseases, but the population is still subject to the risk of pandemics. We can see this with Ebola, the H1N1 virus or the influenza epidemic which have developed in certain geographical areas.
According to expert calculations, a virus attacking the bronchi can lead to a weakening of 1% of humanity, or 70 million people [FAN 16].
Companies, organizations and even states will have to organize themselves to face this type of eventuality. This is an area where the practice of competitive and strategic intelligence can be very useful.
Moreover, if we can minimize certain risks of contagion, the significant increase in chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) [WIK 18b] (such as Alzheimer’s disease, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular disorders, obesity, stroke, asthma, diabetes, cataracts, etc.) is increasing dangerously. It is currently estimated that about 60% of the world’s mortality is caused by NCDs and that these are directly related to dietary behavior (fats, sugar, alcohol) and medical history, but also to environmental conditions, such as pollution, water quality, or the behavior of individuals (drugs, tobacco), etc. These diseases requiring care over long periods are now a major problem [ORG 17].
2.4.4. Natural risks
With the rise of the digital world, we usually forget that certain natural phenomena can have an impact on electromagnetic systems. Our communications are currently organized around satellites, but what will become of satellites when we face a large solar explosion since this will inevitably happen sooner or later? While it will not be fundamentally harmful to humans, it can damage and even destroy communications systems like a neutron bomb. We will have to study the impact and consequences, to see how to protect ourselves by protecting the essentials. Beyond the practice of Faraday cages [WIK 17] by the military, it is an area where there still remains a lot to be done.
2.4.5. Political risks
By refocusing on the issues that directly concern them, the United States will no longer be the world’s police officer, which will mean that a number of countries and poles will be able to take charge of their own destiny. On their own territory, the policy of promoting national production and refocusing on the traditional values of the American people will widen the gap between liberal democrats from the east and west coasts and the rest of the country.
China will soon reach a GDP of 15,000 USD per capita, which will have a positive impact on health, education or the role of women in society. On the other hand, as Alvin Toffler [TOF 71] observed in the Soviet Union, the growth of individual wealth, as well as that at the level of education, is always accompanied by a demand for greater independence and freedom for the individual. This expectation of a form of democracy, which usually has little to do with our definition for cultural reasons, can create problems that might destabilize the country. In the same way, Iran will become the reference power with Turkey north of the Middle East. This will bring about an evolution of their cultural and social models that their governments will have to steer to avoid confrontations between the modern and the traditional poles.
Europe, as we have already seen, will no doubt move toward a two-speed system with a more homogeneous part of a dozen countries and the rest regrouped in a free trade federation. The lack of change will lead to widespread disruption with serious economic and social consequences that will have to be managed in a declining environment.
After being blocked for a long time by the Germans, who were worried about a project of grouping the countries around the Mediterranean that could compete with their own project centered around the Baltic and change the internal power relations within the European Union, the problem of the Euro-Mediterranean is back on the agenda. It is obvious that southern Europe should collaborate with the countries on the other side of the Mediterranean as is already done directly with Morocco, if only to reduce costs of production.
2.4.6. Nuclear risks
The principle of deterrence has been proven to deter certain powerhungry leaders at the head of a nuclear country from pressing the button. Everyone knows that in case of threat or action, the aggressor country will be “vitrified” by the others, which constitutes a powerful obstacle to the use of this weapon. On the other hand, there is still a tight-knit group of nuclear powers. Some countries with the bomb want to join in order to be recognized; while others want to acquire nuclear power to be at the same level as their neighbors. This situation is a permanent focus of international tension.
2.4.7. Cyber risks
Another major problem is cyber warfare, which can be conducted by states, companies or individuals. It can occur at different levels, ranging from the manipulation of information to the destruction of an object, a site or a commercial or military business entity [LIA 15]. The big powers listen to everyone, or at least try to do it, as we saw with Julian Assange and Edward Snowden. The Russians intercepted messages from Hillary Clinton. A cyber caliphate affiliated with the Islamic State of Iran and the Levant (ISIL) has been suspected of having outsourced the attack on TV5 in France. Sony was attacked following the release of a film caricaturing a dictator similar to that of North Korea. Beyond states, we must not forget the big mafia organizations that refocus on these very lucrative and less risky activities.
Cyber-attacks will become the biggest source of losses for companies. Therefore, it is imperative to address these new threats [HÉO 17, LUC 16].
2.5. Conclusion
Faced with the evolution of the world, relationships between actors and risks of all kinds in our environment, it is necessary to find operating models that make it possible to react and, if possible, to anticipate certain situations. This implies that we consider the structure and its possibilities, the culture of the company and its values, and the environment as a whole, and that the management has the will and the ability to question itself with each change of parameters.
This requires rigorous analysis to determine its strengths and weaknesses, and identify ways to improve and remedy dysfunctional ways of working. But one’s own knowledge and one’s competitors are affected by the constant evolution of the environment. The geopolitical analysis of the present, the future and the fields of what is possible, is an indispensable element that must be available to the decision-maker.
In this current complex situation, a business does not usually have all the answers, as they go through a public/private partnership or collaborate with experts who can fetch strategic information at the state level. They must also motivate those who will have to use them in the company.
Across China, Teng Hsiao-Ping created motivation for work and entrepreneurship by letting the Chinese work on their own without any special taxation beyond the hours of work due to the party. This triggered the development of an internal “capitalism” in China that allowed the smartest to become millionaires; and everyone in general to want to work more.
2.6. References
[ALL 17] ALLEN W., ANDERSON B., VAN HEAR N. et al., “Who counts in crises? The new geopolitics of international migration and refugee governance”, Geopolitics, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 1–27, 2017.
[AND 16] ANDREGG M., “Ethical implications of the snowden revelations”, The International Journal of Intelligence, Security, and Public Affairs, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 110–131, 2016.
[ATT 14] ATTALI J., “Les nouveaux visages de la microfinance en Afrique”, Revue d’économie financière, vol. 4, no. 16, pp. 243–258, 2014.
[BAD 16] BADIE B., Nous ne sommes plus seuls au monde : Un autre regard sur l’“ordre international”, La Découverte, Paris, 2016.
[BEZ 15] BEZES P., Réinventer l’État : Les réformes de l’administration française (1962–2008), Presses universitaires de France, Paris, 2015.
[BRA 17] BRANCA E., L’Ami américain : Washington contre De Gaulle (1940– 1969), Perrin, Paris, 2017.
[DEL 17] DELUX T., VANNAK R., “The USA and PRC competition in Asia Pacific region : Geo-economics’ and geopolitical aspects”, Cовре менные проблемы социально-экономических систем в условиях глобализации, pp. 13–19, Belgorod, March 1, 2017, available at: http://dspace.bsu.edu.ru/bitstream/12345678918615/1/Sovremen_Probl_Sots_Ekon_Sistem_17.pdf#page=13.
[FAN 16] FAN V.-Y., JAMISON D.-T., SUMMERS L.-H., The inclusive cost of pandemic influenza risk, Working paper, no. 22137, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 2016.
[FIS 17] FISCHER G., HIZSNYIK E., TRAMBEREND S. et al., “Policy support for sustainable development: Scarcity, abundance and alternative uses of land and water resources”, IIASA Institutional Evaluation, 2017, available at: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14447/.
[FÖR 16] FÖRSTER M., THEVENOT C., “Inégalité des revenus et protection sociale : les enseignements de l’analyse internationale de l’OCDE”, Revue française des affaires sociales, vol. 1, pp. 65–91, 2016.
[FOU 17] FOURNIÉ P., DOU H., “L’Indonésie à la croisée des chemins”, R2IE Revue internationale d’intelligence économique, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 103–128, 2017.
[GRA 11] GRAPHSEO, “Le classement des plus grandes banques du monde”, Graphseo bourse, 2011, available at: https://graphseobourse.fr/classement-des-plus-grandes-banques-du-monde/.
[HAR 17] HARBULOT C., JUILLET A., REVEL C. et al., “Intelligence économique : Qu’attend l’État ?”, Les Échos, April 27, 2017, available at: https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/cercle/0212019764473-intelligence-economique-quattend-letat-2082996.php.
[HÉO 17] HÉON S., PARSOIRE D., “La couverture du cyber-risque”, Revue d’économie financière, vol. 2, pp. 169–182, 2017.
[HÉR 15] HÉRARD P., “Piratage de TV5Monde, ce qu’en disent les experts”, TV5Monde, 2015, available at: https://information.tv5monde.com/info/piratage-de-tv5monde-ce-qu-en-disent-les-experts-27578.
[JUI 16] JUILLET A., “‘Absurdité totale’, soumission aveugle aux intérêts américains”, Radio Sputnik, 2016, available at: https://fr.sputniknews.com/international/2016 05071024807843-erreurs-renseignement-france-ex-chef/.
[KAL 17] KALAY Y.-E., “How smart is the Smart City? Assessing the impact of ICT on cities”, Agent Based Modelling of Urban Systems: First International Workshop: ABMUS 2016, Held in Conjunction with AAMAS, Singapore, vol. 10051, p. 189, 2017.
[LEA 17] LEAR J., “Space: Reflection, critical thinking and making long-term decisions in a short-term world”, EPALE Electronic Platform for Adult Learning in Europe European Community, 2017, available at: https://ec.europa.eu/epale/en/content/space-reflection-critical-thinking-and-making-long-term-decisions-short-term-world.
[LIA 15] LIAROPOULOS A., “Exercising state sovereignty in cyberspace: An international cyber-order under construction?”, Leading Issues in Cyber Warfare and Security: Cyber Warfare and Security, vol. 2, p. 191, 2015.
[LUC 16] LUCAT J., “La sécurité informatique pour l’usager de base : Un expert de terrain, dix fondamentaux”, Sécurité globale, vol. 4, no. 8, pp. 57–65, 2016.
[MAY 17] MAY R.-E., “The irony of confederate diplomacy: Visions of empire, the Monroe doctrine, and the quest for nationhood”, Journal of Southern History, vol. 83, no. 1, pp. 69–106, 2017.
[MAZ 16] MAZZELLA S., Sociologie des migrations, Presses universitaires de France, Paris, 2016.
[MEY 17] MEYER T., “Comparer la réussite des conflits environnementaux en Allemagne et en France : Une approche géopolitique”, herodote.net, no. 2, pp. 31–52, 2017.
[MON 02] MONTAGUE D., “Stolen goods: Coltan and conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo”, Sais Review, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 103–118, 2002.
[ORG 17] ORGANISATION MONDIALE DE LA SANTÉ, Rapport de situation sur la prévention et la maîtrise des maladies non transmissibles, Report, 2017, available at: http://applications.emro.who.int/docs/RC_technical_papers_2017_inf_doc_6_20023_fr.pdf?ua=1.
[RAI 16] RAISSON V., 2038, les futurs du monde, Robert Laffont, Paris, 2016.
[RÉB 17] RÉBILLARD C., “La mondialisation en questions”, Sciences humaines, vol. 3, p. 11, 2017.
[RIG 15] RIGOULET-ROZE D., “Le ‘fantôme’ de l’Irangate dans les négociations sur le nucléaire iranien”, Politique américaine, vol. 2, pp. 49–68, 2015.
[ROD 17] RODRIGUEZ G.-P., “Reflexiones sobre la guerra del siglo XXI”, Armada Española, p. 59, 2017.
[SOU 17] SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, “Chinese in the Russian far east: a geopolitical time bomb?”, 2017, available at: http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/chinese-russian-far-east-geopolitical-time-bomb.
[TOF 71] TOFFLER A., Future Shock, Bantam, New York, 1971.
[VAN 17] VAN WORMER K., BESTHORN F., Human Behavior and the Social Environment, Macro Level: Groups, Communities, and Organizations, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2017.
[WIK 17] WIKIPEDIA, “Faraday Cage”, 2017, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraday_Cage.
[WIK 18a] WIKIPEDIA, “Illusory superiority”, 2018, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority.
[WIK 18b] WIKIPEDIA, “Non-Communicable disease”, 2018, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non_Communicable_disease.
[WIK 18c] WIKIPEDIA, “Commission nationale de l'informatique et des libertés”, 2018, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_nationale_de_l%27informatique_et_des_libert%C3%A9s.
[WIL 15] WILSON S.-A., “Corporate social responsibility and power relations: Impediments to community development in post-war Sierra Leone diamond and rutile mining areas”, The Extractive Industries and Society, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 704–713, 2015.
[ZEI 17] ZEIHAN P., “Analysis: Russia far East turning Chinese”, abcNews, 2017, available at: http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=82969.