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Dedication
by John Morecroft
Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics: A Feedback Systems Approach
Copyright
Dedication
About the Author
Foreword
Preface and Acknowledgments1
How to Use This Book
The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling
Introduction1
A New Approach to Modelling
The Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries
Model of a Natural Fishery
Operating a Simple Harvested Fishery
Preview of the Book and Topics Covered
Appendix - Archive Materials from World Dynamics
References
Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking
Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society
A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams
Structure and Behaviour Through Time - Feedback Loops and the Dynamics of a Slow-to-respond Shower
From Events to Dynamics and Feedback – Drug-related Crime
Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams – A Summary
Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology-based Growth Business
Causal Loop Diagrams – Basic Tips
References
Modelling Dynamic Systems
Asset Stock Accumulation
The Coordinating Network
Modelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug-related Crime
Equation Formulations
Experiments with the Model of Drug-related Crime
Benefits of Model Building and Simulation
References
World of Showers
Getting Started
Redesigning Your World of Showers
Inside World of Showers
Simulations of World of Showers B
References
Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building
An Overview of the Modelling Process
Employment and Production Instability – Puzzling Performance Over Time
Equation Formulations and Computations in Production Control
Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics
Equation Formulations in Workforce Management
Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to Cure It
Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems
Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams
Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing
References
The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion
Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption– A Conceptual Diffusion Model
The Bass Model – An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model
A Variation on the Diffusion Model: The Rise of Low-cost Air Travel in Europe
Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios
Conclusion
Appendix: More About the Fliers Model
References
Managing Business Growth
A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment
Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure
An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy
Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth
Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth
Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment
Simulation Experiments
Redesign of the Investment Policy
Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity
Conclusion
Appendix – Gain of a Reinforcing Loop
References
Industry Dynamics – Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers
Problem Articulation – Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price
Model Development Process
A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision Making
Connecting the Pieces – A Feedback Systems View
A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession
Using the Model to Generate Scenarios
Devising New Scenarios
The Oil Producers' Microworld
References
Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling
Urban Dynamics – Growth and Stagnation in Cities
Medical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care
Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy
Conclusion
Appendix – Alternative Simulation Approaches
References
Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning
Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models
Models of Business and Social Systems
Tests for Building Confidence in Models
Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in Fast-moving Consumer Goods
Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model
Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model
Tests of Learning from Simulation
Summary of Confidence Building Tests
Conclusion – Model Fidelity and Usefulness
References
Index
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About the Author
Dedication
To Linda, Katie, Jennifer and Rachel
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