About the Author
by John Morecroft
Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics: A Feedback Systems Approach
- Copyright
- Dedication
- About the Author
- Foreword
- Preface and Acknowledgments1
- How to Use This Book
- The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling
- Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking
- Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society
- A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams
- Structure and Behaviour Through Time - Feedback Loops and the Dynamics of a Slow-to-respond Shower
- From Events to Dynamics and Feedback – Drug-related Crime
- Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams – A Summary
- Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology-based Growth Business
- Causal Loop Diagrams – Basic Tips
- References
- Modelling Dynamic Systems
- World of Showers
- Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building
- An Overview of the Modelling Process
- Employment and Production Instability – Puzzling Performance Over Time
- Equation Formulations and Computations in Production Control
- Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics
- Equation Formulations in Workforce Management
- Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to Cure It
- Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems
- Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams
- Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing
- References
- The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion
- Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption– A Conceptual Diffusion Model
- The Bass Model – An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model
- A Variation on the Diffusion Model: The Rise of Low-cost Air Travel in Europe
- Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios
- Conclusion
- Appendix: More About the Fliers Model
- References
- Managing Business Growth
- A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment
- Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure
- An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy
- Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth
- Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth
- Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment
- Simulation Experiments
- Redesign of the Investment Policy
- Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity
- Conclusion
- Appendix – Gain of a Reinforcing Loop
- References
- Industry Dynamics – Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers
- Problem Articulation – Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price
- Model Development Process
- A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision Making
- Connecting the Pieces – A Feedback Systems View
- A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession
- Using the Model to Generate Scenarios
- Devising New Scenarios
- The Oil Producers' Microworld
- References
- Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling
- Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning
- Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models
- Models of Business and Social Systems
- Tests for Building Confidence in Models
- Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in Fast-moving Consumer Goods
- Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model
- Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model
- Tests of Learning from Simulation
- Summary of Confidence Building Tests
- Conclusion – Model Fidelity and Usefulness
- References
- Index
About the Author
John Morecroft is Adjunct Associate Professor of Management Science and Operations at London Business School where he teaches system dynamics, problem structuring and strategy in MBA, PhD and Executive Education programmes. He has served as Associate Dean of the School's Executive MBA and co-designed EMBA-Global, a dual degree programme with New York's Columbia Business School. He is a leading expert in strategic modelling and system dynamics and has co-edited three books in the area and written more than 50 papers and journal articles. He is a recipient of the Jay Wright Forrester Award of the System Dynamics Society and a Past President of the Society. His research interests include the dynamics of firm performance and the use of models and simulation in strategy development. He has led applied research projects for international organisations including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, BBC World Service, Cummins Engine Company, Harley-Davidson, Ericsson, McKinsey & Co and Mars Inc. Before joining London Business School he was on the faculty of MIT's Sloan School of Management where he received his PhD. He also holds degrees from Imperial College London and from Bristol University.
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