As I finish writing this book at the beginning of 2014, I cannot help but wonder what the next few years will bring to the world of tourism security. Will we be more or less secure? How will the economy impact the state of tourism security both in the United States and in the world? What lessons have we learned from past successes and errors? Although it would be foolish to make predictions about a future that is yet to unfold, here are some guidelines and challenges to consider.

1. Issues of Security. Visitors and tourism on the whole are security sensitive. The coming years will present tourism security specialists with any number of challenges. Among these may be:

a. Terrorism has not diminished, but rather it has mutated. Single-cell terrorist groups will increase their threat to the tourism industry and will be harder than ever to detect.

b. Major events around the world will receive a great deal of publicity and publicity invites security issues. Tourism security specialists and professionals will have to be vigilant regarding potential acts of terrorism and acts of random violence. Tourism security specialists will have the continual problem of when they prevent an attack, few note the success, but when they fail, everyone knows it.

c. Tourism-oriented policing and protection services (TOPPS) around the world will be needed more than ever. If security personnel can convince marketers of the importance of TOPPS units, then these forces may help to create a dent in international crimes against tourists. If, however, these forces remain underfunded, then additional problems may occur.

2. Tourism is highly dependent on economic trends. Often in the past, when tourism “sneezes,” tourism security professionals have gotten “pneumonia.” That is to say that often tourism security professionals have been some of the earliest people cut when there is a budget crisis. To avoid this pitfall, it is essential that tourism security professionals convince their industry colleagues that they are not only essential, but add to the bottom line. That means that part of their job is educating their colleagues as to what their job consists of and why they are an essential element in difficult economic times.

3. Tourism marketing has placed its emphasis on the middle-class market. In the latter half of the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century, these are the people who have traditionally thought about security issues and react negatively to a security threat. The middle class forms the largest travel group, is only moderately demanding, and sociologically tends to be forgiving of tourism mistakes and somewhat tolerant of less than perfect customer service. The middle class is perhaps the most vulnerable to economic highs and lows and tends to be the class that most easily panics during a downturn. Because the middle class often buys on credit, the cost of credit will have a major impact on its ability and willingness to purchase what appears to be nonessential services. On a positive note, in many of the developing economies there is a rising middle class, and these new middle classes appear to be following the same sociological patterns as the middle classes in the more traditionally established economies. Not only should tourism marketers and professionals do well to be alert to the following economic trends, but also so should tourism security professionals. Remember that part of security is being sure that our security professionals have sufficient manpower and equipment and none of this can be done without funding. Tourism security professionals would be wise to observe the following trends and compute how these trends will impact their economic well-being.

a. The cost of credit. Because so much of the middle class’s purchases for expendable items are dependent on credit, it is essential to track the trends in credit. If interest rates rise, then middle-class purchases become more expensive. When interest rates fall, the same item or service becomes less expensive.

b. The failures and successes of the middle class. The middle class must live on some form of budget. That means that if there is a major rise in taxes or other required services, the middle class may tend to hold back on what it considers luxury items. For example, in the United States right now there is doubt as to what the cost of health care will be in 2014. Should the cost go down, then psychologically the public’s willingness to travel may rise (assuming all else being the same). However, should health care costs spiral, the tourism industry may suffer, and tourism security professionals will have an additional problem with which to contend.

c. The stock markets around the world. When the stock markets tend to rise, many people feel wealthier and are more willing to spend money. The opposite is true of a falling market. Note that the psychological macro impact is not connected to an individual’s personal wealth. Members of the middle class tend to spend money as influenced by macro rather than micro trends.

4. Tourism security officers and professionals need to be aware of transportation issues. With the merger of airlines around the world, tourism leaders can expect higher costs and a continual downgrading of services. Will this lowering of services mean an angrier public and more security problems? Airlines have become the business that travelers love to hate, and road rage often turns into airline rage. Should the cost of fuel continue to climb, expect reductions in service, fewer flights, and lighter and less comfortable aircraft. The travel industry’s dependency on air travel will continue to be a major problem. On the other hand, many nations have established functioning bus and train alternatives and these alternative forms of public transportation, along with private vehicles, may become a short-haul substitute for problems in air travel.

5. Tourism security officials will need to adapt to travelers seeking new opportunities for alternative travel experiences. Many of the legacy destinations will have to compete with new travel experiences. A new generation will seek combination tourism in which it can mix business with pleasure, short-term vacations that embrace long weekends, and boutique tourism experiences that are out of the ordinary. Many of the legacy destinations will suffer from the “been-there-done-that” syndrome and will have to offer more conveniences or tourism opportunities if they are to keep their status as premier destinations. How the tourism security industry will adapt itself to these needs is still an open question.

6. Business travelers will expect more. Business travelers around the world not only expect free Internet and Wi-Fi service, they are also aware that they are potential victims not only of assaults and larcenies, but also, in too many places around the world, of kidnappings. Female travelers will especially want to be careful when traveling alone and in locales that do not provide well-thought-out security at hotels, parking lots, and city streets. These people need access to free printing via the Internet, flexible check-in and check-out times, and dining options that are both affordable and varied. Travelers will continue to be concerned about pandemics and illnesses from contaminated food and water supplies.

Tourism professionals have always had to deal with challenges and in a number of cases security challenges have been met and overcome. A number of places around the world have come up with new creative measures in their tourism offerings. For example, Panama has created a program to provide visitors with 1 month of free health insurance. The Dominican Republic has created perhaps the world’s best trained tourism police force, and the United States has begun to allow entrance, at least for returning U.S. citizens, via computers rather than forcing everyone to stand in line.

No one knows what the future will bring, but we can be sure that the world’s largest and perhaps youngest industry is flexible enough to find creative solutions for challenges that will surely occur. Perhaps we can ask nothing more but to be vigilant and to face the world with a cheerful and caring countenance.