Contents
Foreword
xi
Preface
xiii
Acknowledgments
xv
Introduction
1
MOTIVATION
Generate Social Dynamics
2
A Core Target
THE MODEL COMPONENTS
5
MODEL OVERVIEW
6
Skeletal Equation
8
Specific Components
9
ORGANIZATION
10
Part I: Mathematical Model
Part II: Agent-Based Model
11
Part III: Extensions
13
Replicability and Research Resources on the Princeton University Press Website
16
Part IV: Future Research and Conclusions
17
Part I. Mathematical Model
19
I.1. THE PASSIONS: FEAR CONDITIONING
Fear Circuitry and the Perils of Fitness
20
Nomenclature of Conditioning
29
The Rescorla-Wagner Model
33
Social Examples
37
Fear Extinction
41
I.2. REASON: THE COGNITIVE COMPONENT
46
I.3. THE SOCIAL COMPONENT
51
Simple Version of the Core Target
55
Examples of Fear Contagion
57
Mechanisms of Fear Contagion
59
Conformist Empirical Estimates
63
Generalizing Rescorla-Wagner
67
The Central Case
69
Tolstoy: The First Agent Modeler
71
A Mathematical Aside on Social Norms as Vector Fields
74
Extinction of Majorities
78
I.4. INTERIM CONCLUSIONS
80
Part II. Agent-Based Computational Model
81
Affective Component
84
“Rational” Component
85
Social Component
88
Action
89
Pseudocode
II.1. COMPUTATIONAL PARABLES
90
Parable 1: The Slaughter of Innocents through Dispositional Contagion
Parable 2: Agent_Zero Initiates: Leadership as Susceptibility to Dispositional Contagion
94
Run 3. Information Cuts Both Ways
96
Run 4. A Day in the Life of Agent_Zero: How Affect and Probability Can Change on Different Time Scales
98
Run 5. Lesion Studies
102
Part III. Extensions
107
III.1. ENDOGENOUS DESTRUCTIVE RADIUS
III.2. AGE AND IMPULSE CONTROL
109
III.3. FIGHT VS. FLIGHT
110
Case 1: Fight
111
Case 2: Flight
112
Capital Flight
114
III.4. REPLICATING THE LATANÉ-DARLEY EXPERIMENT
Threshold Imputation
115
The Dialogue
118
III.5. MEMORY
III.6. COUPLINGS: ENTANGLEMENT OF PASSION AND REASON
122
Mathematical Treatment
124
III.7. ENDOGENOUS DYNAMICS OF CONNECTION STRENGTH
128
Affective Homophily
General Setup
130
Agent-Based Model: Nonequlibrium Dynamics
135
III.8. GROWING THE 2011 ARAB SPRING
138
III.9. JURY PROCESSES
143
Phase 1. Public Phase
Phase 2. Courtroom Trial Phase
145
Phase 3. Jury Phase
147
III.10. EMERGENT DYNAMICS OF NETWORK STRUCTURE
152
Network Structure Dynamics as a Poincaré Map
153
Relation to Literature
159
III.11. MULTIPLE SOCIAL LEVELS
160
Agent_Zero as Witness to History
161
III.12. THE 18TH BRUMAIRE OF AGENT_ZERO
165
III.13. INTRODUCTION OF PRICES AND SEASONAL ECONOMIC CYCLES
168
Prices
A Christmas Story
173
III.14. SPIRALS OF MUTUAL ESCALATION
176
Part IV. Future Research and Conclusion
181
IV.1. FUTURE RESEARCH
IV.2. CONCLUSION
187
Civil Violence
Economics
188
Health Behavior
189
Psychology
190
Jury Dynamics
191
The Formation and Dynamics of Networks
Mutual Escalation Dynamics
192
Birth and Intergenerational Transmission
IV.3. TOWARD NEW GENERATIVE FOUNDATIONS
Appendix I. Threshold Imputation Bounds
195
Appendix II. Mathematica Code
197
Appendix III. Agent_Zero NetLogo Source Code
213
Appendix IV. Parameter Settings for Model Runs
221
References
227
Index
243
