What it is

When I teach a course on basic financial modeling, I always ask my students for their definitions of the term financial model. Most of them come up with long-winded descriptions using terms like forecast and cash flow and hypothetical outcomes. But I don’t think the definition needs to be that complicated. A financial model is a tool (typically built in Excel) that displays possible solutions to a real-world financial problem. And financial modeling is the task of creating a financial model.

You may have thought that a financial model was basically just an Excel spreadsheet, but as you know, not every spreadsheet is a financial model. People can and do use Excel for all kinds of purposes. So, what makes a financial model distinct from a garden-variety spreadsheet? In contrast to a basic spreadsheet, a financial model

• Is more structured. A financial model contains a set of variable assumptions — inputs, outputs, calculations, and scenarios. It often includes a set of standard financial forecasts — such as a profit-and-loss statement, a balance sheet, and a cash flow statement — which are based on those assumptions.
• Is dynamic. A financial model contains inputs that, when changed, impact the calculations and, therefore, the results. A financial model always has built-in flexibility to display different outcomes or final calculations based on changing a few key inputs.
• Uses relationships between several variables. When the user changes any of the input assumptions, a chain reaction often occurs. For example, changing the growth rate will change the sales volume; when the sales volume changes, the revenue, sales commissions, and other variable expenses will change.
• Shows forecasts. Financial models are almost always looking into the future. Financial modelers often want to know what their financial projections will look like down the road. For example, if you continue growing at the same rate, what will your cash flow be in five years?
• Contains scenarios (hypothetical outcomes). Because a model is looking forward instead of backward, a well-built financial model can be easily used to perform scenario and sensitivity analysis. What would happen if interest rates went up? How much can we discount before we start making a loss?

More broadly, a financial model is a structure (usually in Excel) that contains inputs and outputs, and is flexible and dynamic.

Who uses it

Many types of people build and use financial models for different purposes and goals. Financial models are usually built to solve real-world problems, and there are as many different financial models as there are real-world problems to solve. Generally, anyone who uses Excel for the purpose of finance will at some point in his career build a financial model for himself or others to use; at the very least, he’ll use a model someone else created.

Bankers, particularly investment bankers, are heavy users of financial models. Due to the very nature of financial institutions, modeling is part of the culture of the company — the business’s core is built on financial models. Banks and financial institutions must comply with current regulatory restrictions, and the tools and controls in place are forever changing and adapting. Because of the risk associated with lending and other financial activities, these institutions have very complex financial modeling systems in place to ensure that the risk is managed effectively. Anyone working in the banking industry should have at least a working knowledge of spreadsheets and financial models.

Outside the banking industry, accountants are big users of financial models. Bankers are often evaluating other companies for credit risk and other measures. An accountant’s models, however, are often more inward looking, focusing on internal operations reporting and analysis, project evaluation, pricing, and profitability.

Why it matters

A financial model is designed to depict a real-life situation in numbers in order to help people make better financial decisions.

Wherever there are financial problems or situations in the real world that need solving, analyzing, or translating into a numerical format, financial models help. Sometimes it’s just an idea or a concept that needs to be converted into a business case or feasibility proposal. A skilled financial modeler can put substance to the idea by augmenting the details enough to get a working model upon which decisions can be made, investor funds can be gained, or staff can be hired.

For example, financial models can help investors decide which project to put their money into, an executive track which marketing campaigns have the highest return on investment, or a factory production manager decide whether to purchase a new piece of machinery.

Project finance models

Loans and the associated debt repayments are an important part of project finance models, because these projects are normally long term, and lenders need to know whether the project is able to produce enough cash to service the debt. Metrics such as debt service cover ratio (DSCR) are included in the model and can be used as a measure of risk of the project, which may affect the interest rate offered by the lender. At the beginning of the project, the DSCR and other metrics are agreed upon between the lender and borrower such that the ratio must not go below a certain number.

Pricing models

The input to a pricing model is the price, and the output is the profitability. To create a pricing model, an income statement (or profit-and-loss statement) of the business or product should be created first, based on the current price or a price that has been input as a placeholder. At a very high level:

• Units × Price = Revenue
• Revenue – Expenses = Profit

Of course, this kind of model can be very complex and involve many different tabs and calculations, or it can be quite simple, on a single page. When this structure model is in place, the modeler can perform sensitivity analysis on the price entered using a goal seek (see Chapter 7) or a data table (see Chapter 8).

Integrated financial statement models

Not every financial model needs to contain all three types of financial statements, but many of them do, and those that do are known as integrated financial statement models. You may also hear them referred to as “three-way financial models.” The three types of financial statements included in an integrated financial statement model are the following:

• Income statement, also known as a profit-and-loss (P&L) statement
• Cash flow statement
• Balance sheet

From a financial modeling perspective, it’s very important that when an integrated financial statement model is built, the financial statements are linked together properly so that if one statement changes, the others change as well. For an example of how to build an integrated financial statement model, turn to Chapter 12.

Valuation models

Building valuation models requires a specialized knowledge of valuation theory (using the different techniques of valuing an asset), as well as modeling skills. If you’re a casual financial modeler, you probably won’t be required to create from scratch a fully functioning valuation model. But you should at least have an idea of what types of valuation financial models are out there.

Here are three common types of valuation financial models you may encounter:

• Mergers and acquisitions (M&A): These models are built to simulate the effect of two companies merging or one company taking over the other. M&A models are normally undertaken in a tightly controlled environment. Due to its confidential nature, an M&A model has fewer players than other kinds of models. The project moves quickly because time frames are tight. The few modelers working on an M&A model do so in a concentrated period of time, often working long hours to achieve a complex and detailed model.
• Leveraged buyout (LBO): These models are built to facilitate the purchase of a company or asset with large amounts of debt to finance the deal, called a leveraged buyout. The entity acquiring the “target” company or asset usually finances the deal with some equity, using the target’s assets as security — in the same way that many home loan mortgages work. LBOs are a popular method of acquisition because they allow the entity to make large purchases without committing a lot of cash. Modeling is an important part of the LBO deal because of its complexity and the high stakes involved.
• Discounted cash flow (DCF): These models calculate the cash expected to be received from the business or asset a company is considering purchasing, and then discounts that cash flow back into today’s dollars to see whether the opportunity is worth pursuing. Valuing the future cash flows expected from an acquisition is the most common modeling method of valuation. Intrinsic to the DCF methodology is the concept of the time value of money — in other words, that cash received today is worth a lot more than the same amount of cash received in future years. For an example of how to calculate DCF, turn to Chapter 11.

Reporting models

Because they look historically at what occurred in the past, some people argue that reporting models are not really financial models at all, but I disagree. The principles, layout, and design that are used to create a reporting model are identical to other financial models. Just because they contain historical rather than projected numbers doesn’t mean they should be categorized any differently.

In fact, reporting models are often used to create actual versus budget reports, which often include forecasts and rolling forecasts, which in turn are driven by assumptions and other drivers. Reporting models often start out as a simple income statement report, but end up being transformed into fully integrated financial statement models, pricing models, project finance models, or valuation models.