9
Pathways of Possibility

As a result of pioneering thinking, we have a bunch of intriguing incoherencies — possible future contexts in which our current business model and identity may be unviable. We've even explored where potential opportunities may lie. Maybe a gaping opportunity exists to serve an otherwise unconsidered customer need in a new way? Or maybe you've identified a glaring dependency within your key partnerships? Or maybe current delivery channels are rendered obsolete in a possible future context?

Upon discovering specific incoherencies — particularly when these incoherencies share commonality across multiple distinct future contexts — you might experience an ‘a-ha!' moment. This is the point within pioneering thinking where suddenly a clear pathway seems to emerge. This is usually accompanied by an individual (or, even better, collective) physiological response — it causes some people to snap their fingers, clap their hands, or literally bound out of their seats. Within the mind, we have just ‘clicked' a set of dissociated patterns into a newly combined pattern. It can be electrifying.

Prior to this point, the process may have seemed nebulous. But now, the path forward may seem so obvious that you'll wonder why it took you so long to see it, or why other folks aren't pursuing it already.

Hold your horses. Remember: the point of Quest-Augmented Strategy is to enrich decision-making and counter default thinking with viable alternative options. Just because you've identified an option, doesn't mean it's viable. And besides — some pathways don't become immediately apparent in a beautifully coalesced ‘a-ha!' moment. Some persist as nagging hunches in the background.

We don't just throw all of our effort towards the first seemingly viable option that strikes us. Instead, we note down these options, and through repeated forays into the overlapping incoherencies of possible future contexts, we start to build a quiver of options.

A QUIVER OF OPTIONS

A quiver is a case for holding arrows — but now the word is also used to describe a collection of surfboards (or snow/skateboards) of different lengths, thickness and/or design. By having a quiver of boards, a surfer (or board rider?) can choose the right board for the context.^[1] For example, I have a small quiver of skateboards, consisting of a longboard (for smooth roads and less traffic), a cruiser (for busier streets) and a double-kick board (for awkwardness, injury and regret). ‘What's in your carry quiver?' was a question asked of me by the Chief Storyteller from Bellroy — an enterprise that engineers wallets, bags and better ways to carry — when I worked with them. Here, she was referring to the different bags/wallets/satchels I own, for use in different contexts.

And so a good question to ask any pioneering leader is, what's in your options quiver? Because if you're doing well, you'll have a bunch of them — different strategic decisions and pathways your enterprise may be in a position to execute, relevant to emerging contexts.

An advertising agency, for example, might have options that include potential strategies for emerging technologies and/or new media platforms (including, possibly, more bizarre options that live within the convergence of virtual and augmented reality, the quantified self and the Internet of Things). By monitoring emerging platforms and the drivers of change, an option from within the quiver may show potential viability.

But remember: we're on a quest to generate viable alternative options to augment and enrich strategic decision-making. How do we know if something is viable? We test it.

A GROWING ACUITY

It's difficult to un-see a potential incoherence in an imagined future. And this is wonderful.

This means that, after engaging in pioneering thinking and exploring possible future contexts (and their inherent incoherencies), your leadership team^[2] will develop a growing capacity to develop and foster nagging hunches around these potential incoherencies. You'll begin to notice common incoherencies that exist across multiple possible futures. And it's these common incoherencies — the ones that keep emerging — that ought to give us cause for concern.

Much like our actions when we experience cognitive dissonance — whereby we naturally seek to minimise the inconsistencies between our thoughts and our behaviours — we will also naturally seek to resolve these potential incoherencies. An unresolved question is a beacon for curiosity. Your mind will start actively scanning the environment for more information in this field. You and your team will begin to notice new threads of evidence. As you attune more deeply into relevant feeds and discussions around this potential future context, more ‘a-ha!' moments will occur. You'll attend conferences, host meet-ups and follow the development of key players on social media. You'll listen to podcasts and you'll debate new ideas as they relate to your enterprise strategy.

At some point you'll have an abundant quiver of alternative options — dozens of potential strategic pathways that may unlock new value and enduring relevance for an enterprise. Then, after collectively monitoring these options, gathering new intelligence, observing key drivers and identifying key triggers^[3] in the environment, you'll arrive at a point where you need to consider translating your pioneering thinking into pioneering doing.

But — unless you're a CEO with an incredibly supportive team, a trusting board and an enterprise culture that thrives on change — chances are you'll need to prepare for chooks.

IN ANTICIPATION OF CHOOKS

Chooks (or ‘chickens', for folks outside of Australia and New Zealand) can make a grumbly type of clucking that almost sounds like ‘yes-but-but-but-but-but …'. Committees also make a similar sound.^[4] When confronted with a new idea or alternative ways of doing things, our default response is to say ‘Yes — but [insert reason this won't work]'. And this is perfectly reasonable — every enterprise needs to maintain a healthy immune system to protect itself from new ideas, lest its focus become diluted.

Another classic challenge on the path towards pioneering growth is those key decision-makers (or peers) who fold their arms and say, ‘Show me the evidence.' This is also quite reasonable. After all — these incoherencies haven't manifested yet, have they? And some of the things you're suggesting might require fundamental changes in an enterprise's business model. Potentially thousands of jobs and millions of dollars are at stake. It's far too risky to embark upon an untested new path.

We may have optionality, but it's still too early to integrate a potential new pathway into the existing enterprise strategy. And besides — confirmation bias may be at play. And so, to ensure things aren't being collectively distorted, and that the options we have for an emerging future are viable — we craft and conduct experiments.