Chapter 27. The Future

“We should all be concerned about the future because we will have to spend the rest of our lives there” (Charles F. Kettering).

The United States has a serious energy problem. Viewpoints as to its solution from three different constituencies are discussed by Jane C. S. Long (see References). The first, environmentalists, are deeply concerned about climate change caused by greenhouse gases. Their solution is achievement of greater energy efficiency and developing more renewable energy. The second, the energy security constituency, is concerned about reliance on uncertain foreign oil supplies. It favors expansion of ethanol production and making liquid fuel from coal. The third, the economic vitality group, is concerned with high prices that could depress the United States economy. It would increase domestic oil exploration and production.

From the viewpoint of supporters of nuclear energy, the construction of a number of new nuclear power plants to generate electricity and hydrogen for transportation would go a long way to improving the energy situation. However, there are broader questions that require answers.

• What should be the role of nuclear power in the United States in the more distant future compared with other energy sources?
• What will be the use of nuclear energy sources on a global and long-term basis?
• What will be the ultimate energy source for mankind after fossil fuels are gone?

The future can be viewed in several ways. The first is acceptance, as by a fatalist, who has no expectation either of understanding or of control. The second is prediction, on the basis of belief and intuition. The third is idealization, as by a utopian, who imagines what would be desirable. The fourth is analysis, as by a scientist, of historical trends, the forces that are operative, and the probable effect of exercising each of the options available. Some combination of these views may be the answer, including the realization that the future always will bring surprises. Nevertheless, if the human species is to survive and prosper, we must believe we have some control of our destiny and take positive action to achieve a better world.

The oil crisis of 1973 involving an artificial shortage alerted the world to the importance of energy. A number of studies were published. Some of these are still relevant; others are very much out of date. Only a few will be cited here in References. In subsequent years, prices of oil declined, the oil supply was adequate, and natural gas became abundant, so public concern relaxed, and few updates of the studies were made. Other reasons for reservations about the literature of the 1970s and 1980s can be cited.

1. Principal emphasis has been on the situation in the United States or in developed countries, with less attention to developing countries.
2. Various investigators come to quite different conclusions even if they use the same data, depending on their degree of pessimism or optimism. At one extreme is the book The Limits to Growth and later works (called “doomsday” studies) and the upbeat energy reports of the Hudson Institute (see References).
3. Extrapolations of data can be very wrong, as evidenced by predictions on the growth of nuclear power made in the 1960s.
4. Sharp differences exist between writers' opinions on the future role of nuclear power. For example, Worldwatch Institute dismisses it at the outset, whereas the United States. National Academies view it as a desirable option.
5. Analyses may be irrelevant if they do not take account of social and political realities in addition to technical and economic factors.

In the next section, we identify some of the factors that need to be considered in planning for the energy future.

27.1. Dimensions

Many aspects of the world energy problem of the future affect nuclear's role. We can view them as dimensions because each has more than one possibility.

The first is the time span of interest, including the past, present, immediate future (say the next 10 y), a period extending well into the 21^st century, and the indefinite future (thousands or millions of years). Useful markers are the times oil and coal supplies become scarce.

The second is location. Countries throughout the world all have different resources and needs. Geographic regions within the United States also have different perspectives.

The third is the status of national economic and industrial development. Highly industrialized countries are in sharp contrast with underdeveloped countries, and there are gradations in between the extremes. Within any nation there are differences among the needs and aspirations for energy of the rich, of the middle class, and of the poor.

The fourth is the political structure of a country as it relates to energy. Examples are the free enterprise system of the United States, the state-controlled electricity production of France, the centrally planned economy of the People's Republic of China, and the transitional economy of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

The fifth is the current nuclear weapons capability, the potential for acquiring it, the desire to do so, or the disavowal of interest.

The sixth is the classification of resources available or sought: exhaustible or renewable; and fossil, solar, or nuclear.

The seventh is the total cost to acquire resources and to construct and operate equipment to exploit them.

The eighth is the form of nuclear power that will be of possible interest: converters, advanced converters, breeders, actinide burners, accelerators, and several types of fusion devices, along with the level of feasibility or practicality of each.

The ninth is the relationship between the effect of a given technology on social and ethical constraints such as public health and safety and the condition of the environment.

The tenth is the philosophical base of people as individuals or groups, with several contrasting attitudes: a view of man as a part of nature versus man as central; preference for simple lifestyle vs. desire to participate in a “high-tech” world; pessimism versus optimism about future possibilities; and abhorrence versus acceptance of nuclear. In addition, cultural and religious factors, national pride, and traditional relationships between neighboring nations are important.

27.2. World Energy Use

The use of energy from the distant past to the present has changed dramatically. Primitive man burned wood to cook and keep warm. For most of the past several thousands of years of recorded history, the only other sources of energy were the muscles of men and animals, wind for sails and windmills, and water power. The Industrial Revolution of the 1800s brought in the use of coal for steam engines and locomotives. Electric power from hydroelectric and coal-burning plants is an innovation of the late 1800s. Oil and natural gas became major sources of energy only in the 20th century. Nuclear energy has been available for only approximately 50 y.

To think about the future, as a minimum it is necessary to understand the present. Data on energy production and use are available from the United States Department of Energy (DOE). Table 27.1 gives world consumption by geographic region. Of special note is the disparity in per capita consumption. Because productivity, personal income, and standard of living tend to follow energy consumption, the implications of these numbers for the human condition in much of the world is evident. The data on ratio of consumption and production confirm our knowledge that the Middle East is a major energy supplier through petroleum and shows that Western Europe and the Far East are quite dependent on imported energy.

Table 27.1. World Primary Energy, 2005

Region	Consumption (1015 Btu)	Per capita (106 Btu)	Consumption/Production
Africa	14.4	16	0.42
North America	121.9	280	1.23
Central & South America	23.4	52	0.83
Europe	86.3	146	1.76
Eurasia	45.8	160	0.67
Middle East	22.9	125	0.35
Asia & Oceania	148.1	41	1.29
World	462.8	72	1.01

A breakdown of the electrical production according to primary energy source by region is given in Table 27.2. We see that there is essentially no nuclear power in Africa or South America. Of that in the Far East, most is in Japan and Korea.

Table 27.2. World Total Net Electricity Generation (2005, BkWh)

Region	Thermal	Hydro	Nuclear	Other*	Total
Africa	430	89	12	2	533
North America	3238	658	880	119	4895
Central & So. America	253	613	16	26	908
Europe	1838	540	957	160	3495
Middle East	582	21	0	neg.	603
Asia & Oceania	4270	735	524	59	5588
World	11455	2900	2626	370	17351

^* geothermal, solar, wind, wood, and waste.

Predictions have been made on world future energy consumption patterns. Figure 27.1 is taken from a DOE report. It shows that nuclear power continues to increase. The projection may not take enough account of eventual acceptance of the virtue of nuclear power in avoiding gaseous emissions. Also, the curve for liquids does not take account of the large increase in oil prices. Finally, the rapid growth in renewables may be optimistic.

Figure 27.1. World energy consumption 1980–2030.

Source: International Energy Outlook 2007.

The most recent data on world population are shown in Table 27.3. Note that Latin America includes the Caribbean. The fertility rate is defined as the number of children per woman. It is seen to be highest in underdeveloped regions. The trend of population in the future depends crucially on that parameter, as shown in Figure 27.2. The three growth projections involve fertility rates that vary with country and with time. The “high” case leads to a world population of almost 11 billion by the year 2050. The population in developed countries is expected to become flat.

Table 27.3. World Population Data, 1998

	Millions of Inhabitants	Fertility Rate	Life Expectancy
Africa	761	5.4	51
North America	301	2.0	76
Latin America	507	2.8	69
Asia	3363	2.7	65
Near East	166	4.4	69
Europe	798	1.5	72
Oceania	30	2.4	72
World	5927	2.9	63

Source: World Population Profile: 1998 (no later report),United States Bureau of the Census.

Figure 27.2. Past and projected world population growth, 1950–2050, with three fertility scenarieos.

Source: World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision.

27.3. Nuclear Energy and Sustainable Development

Throughout history there has been little concern for the environment or human welfare. European countries systematically extracted valuable resources from Mexico, South America, and Africa, destroying cultures on the way. In the expansion to the west in the United States, vast forests were cleared to provide farmland. The passenger pigeon became extinct, and the bison nearly so. Slavery flourished in the United States until 1865. Only after European countries lost their colonies after world wars did African nations and India gain autonomy.

The environmental movement of the 1960s was stimulated by the book Silent Spring by Rachel Carson. That overuse of resources could be harmful was revealed by Garrett Hardin's essay “The Tragedy of the Commons.” As early as 1798, Malthus had predicted that exponential growth of population would exceed linear growth of food supply, leading to widespread famine. The idea was revived by use of sophisticated computer models by Meadows, et al. in The Limits to Growth (see References), which predicted the collapse of civilization under various pressures associated with continued growth.

Finally, in the 1970s and 1980s the United Nations sponsored several international conferences on global problems and potential solutions. Out of these came the concept of “sustainable development.” The phrase gained great popularity among many organizations that were concerned with the state of the world. The original definition of the term was “… meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” As noted by Reid (see References), the phrase can be interpreted to support business-as-usual or to require drastic cutbacks. However, it generally implies conserving physical and biological resources, improving energy efficiency, and avoiding pollution, while enhancing living conditions of people in developing countries. Ideally, all goals can be met. The subject is broad in that it involves the interaction of many governments, cultures, and economic situations. Several conferences have been held under United Nations auspices to highlight the issues, obtain agreements, and map out strategies. One prominent conference was the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which included Agenda 21, a list of 2000 suggestions for action. A follow-up appraisal of results was made in 1997. Progress since is monitored by a “watch” organization.

Johannesburg hosted another Earth Summit in 2000. There is a wealth of Web sites on the subject. The objectives of sustainable development are furthered by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Unfortunately, implementation of goals have been frustrated by wars, the HIV/AIDS epidemic, drought and famine, and disease. One might be pessimistic and question whether there is any hope of achieving the desired improvements in light of failure over half a century. Or one might be optimistic that the concept can bring all parties together in a concerted effort and ultimate breakthrough.

A potential cure for a runaway population and continued misery is improved economic conditions. However, the gap between conditions in rich and poor countries persists, and no improvement is in sight. The problem has become more complex by the concerns about the environment related to the destruction of the rain forest in Central and South America. There are no easy solutions, but a few principles seem reasonable. Protection of the environment is vital, but it should not thwart the hopes of people in underdeveloped countries for a better life. It is obvious that simple sharing of the wealth would result in uniform mediocrity. The alternative is increased assistance by the developed countries, in the form of capital investment and technological transfer. This must be done recognizing the principle that the people of the country being helped should lead the program to improve.

There was a time in the past when international cooperation and assistance was considered to be highly desirable. The post-World War II Marshall Plan brought Germany and Japan back to a high level of productivity and prosperity. The Peace Corps effected improvements in many countries. The Atoms for Peace program of President Eisenhower in the 1950s provided nuclear information and assistance to dozens of countries, forming the basis of the international nuclear industry. The trend in recent years has been in the opposite direction, with emphasis on United States industrial competitiveness and United States leadership in world politics. It is quite possible that greater stability in the world would result from efforts to find more ways to cooperate—through partnerships of commercial organizations, bilateral national agreements, and arrangements developed under United Nations auspices.

One would expect that a philosophy that embraces human rights and supports justice would be implemented by major efforts to help less fortunate people around the world. But even if the motivation were only enlightened self-interest, helping bring up standards of living should open new markets for goods and services and avoid the problem of competing products on the basis of cheap labor.

Success in effecting improvements depends on the means by which help is provided. An issue to resolve is whether to help developing countries shape an overall economic and social plan that includes energy management or to advise how energy should be handled in the country's own plans.

Technology can be introduced in two ways: (a) supplying devices that are appropriate to the receiving country's urgent needs and that are compatible with existing skills to operate and maintain equipment; or (b) supplying equipment, training, and supervision of sophisticated technology that will bring the country quickly to industrial status. Arguments for and against each approach can easily be found. It is possible that both should be followed to provide immediate relief and further the country's hopes for independence.

Advanced countries have applied restrictions to the transfer of nuclear technology to some developing nations in an attempt to prevent the achievement of nuclear weapons capability. Third-World countries resent such exclusion from the opportunity for nuclear power.

One major objective of sustainable development is the improvement of human health in developing countries. If nuclear medicine for diagnosis and treatment were expanded universally, it could make a great difference to the health of people such as those in Africa. For countries that cannot afford to import coal, oil, and natural gas, the introduction of nuclear power for widespread supply of electricity could facilitate pollution-free industrial and commercial development while enhancing human comfort. Nuclear plants can be built to use the waste heat for desalination of seawater, providing safe water for human consumption. For such to be implemented, a reactor type is needed that avoids the high capital cost of conventional light water reactors, requires little maintenance, and is passively safe.

27.4. Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change

The greenhouse effect is one of the processes by which the Earth is warmed. Sunlight of short wavelength can readily pass through water vapor and gases such as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Energy is absorbed by the Earth's surface, which emits long wavelength infrared radiation that is stopped by the vapor and gases. The effect accounts for an increase in natural temperature of approximately 30 °C. Figure 27.3 shows the energy flows for the effect.

Figure 27.3. Earth's radiation energy balance in relation to the greenhouse effect. Numbers are percentages of incoming sunlight.

(From Schneider, see References.)

There is good evidence that the carbon dioxide content of the air has increased from a preindustrial level of 200 ppm to a current value of approximately 350 ppm. Less certain is the amount of temperature change over that period because of natural fluctuations related to sun activity, volcanic dust, and shifting ocean currents.

Greenhouse gases are the collection of natural and manmade substances including water (H²O), carbon dioxide (CO²), methane (CH⁴), nitrous oxide (N²O), and fluorochlorocarbons. Each of these has been increasing in concert with industrialization and increased biomass burning. Estimates have been made of a possible increase of 3 °C to 8 °C in global temperature by the middle of the 21st century if action is not taken. Consequences of such global warming that have been proposed are more severe weather including droughts, storms, and floods; higher incidence of tropical disease; and a melting of ice near the poles that would cause a rise in ocean level that would inundate coastal cities.

International concern led to the Kyoto Protocol of December 1997, which calls for a reduction in carbon emission by all countries, with different percentages for each. The United States would be expected to reduce 7% from 1990 levels. Many nations have signed the treaty, but few have ratified it.

Nuclear power was deliberately excluded from the Kyoto protocol by representatives of European Green Parties. This omission was criticized in a report of the Nuclear Energy Agency (see Reference). That report notes that current nuclear electric plants worldwide are reducing CO² emissions by approximately 17%.

Scientists from more than 100 countries have contributed to a study and evaluation of recent trends in observations, research, and modeling results related to global warming. Their work is for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The mission of IPCC is to assess all information on causes, impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. A relatively brief but comprehensive review of the situation and future is found in a Web site (see References).

That there is a serious potential world problem is highlighted in a multipart report on the science of climate change issued in 2007 by a committee of the IPCC. A key finding was the conviction that the source of global warming is human activities. Estimates are made of the magnitude of temperature increases and the amount of rise in sea levels that would force migration of millions of people in low-lying countries. Predictions are made on the loss of arctic ice and increases in heat waves and tropical storms. Impacts are described for various parts of the world in several categories: water, ecosystems, food, coasts, and health. Adaptations and mitigations are suggested. The most obvious solution is the reduction of CO² emissions. Increases in time by developing countries are expected, whereas developed countries resist limitations. Improvements in efficiency of energy use, especially in vehicles, are desired. Capture and sequestration of carbon is under consideration. Nuclear power as an alternate source of electricity is mentioned in the report but not emphasized (see References).

The subject of global warming is controversial for several reasons. Some believe the potential consequences are so severe that it is urgent to take immediate action. Waiting for additional confirmation through research is considered to be too late. Others are concerned about the worldwide economic disruption that might be caused by drastic reduction of energy production to meet the Kyoto goals. Opposition to action has been expressed in the United States about the low limits on emission by developing countries. The United States Congress has refused to ratify the Protocol on the grounds that it is unfair and if implemented could seriously affect the economy. From a scientific viewpoint, some believe that there is no real correlation between CO² increase and global temperature, that the modeling of trends is yet inadequate in that it does not take proper account of the role of clouds or the absorption of carbon in the ocean, and that the computer models have not been able to reproduce past history correctly.

Singer (see References) recommends a program of adaptation, if necessary, noting that if there were global warming, it could result in more evaporation of water from the oceans and ice accumulation in Greenland and Antarctica. He favors research on the sequestering of carbon by fertilization of the ocean to enhance the population of phytoplankton, a side effect of which would be an increased supply of food fish.

The nuclear industry calls attention to the fact that nuclear reactors provide electric power without any emission of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases. This gives a rationale for the continued operation of nuclear power plants, for extending life through relicensing, and for building new plants. Country data are presented by Australia on the weights of annual carbon release currently avoided by use of nuclear power throughout the world (see References). The total is 2600 million tons.

A number of reports, books, and Web pages provide ample reading material on the subject (see References).

27.5. Perspectives

Let us examine the role of nuclear energy in the global sense over centuries by developing a qualitative but logical scenario of the future. Any analysis of world energy requires several ingredients—an objective, certain assumptions, a model, necessary constraints, input data, performance criteria, and output information.

A primary assumption is that fossil fuels will ultimately become excessively expensive: oil within a few decades and coal within a century or so. Thus the objective of a meaningful analysis must be to effect a smooth transition from the present dependence on fossil fuels to a stable condition that uses resources that are essentially inexhaustible or are renewable.

One constraint vital to the analysis is that a minimum first level of sufficient energy must be available to provide mankind's needs for food, shelter, clothing, protection, and health. This status corresponds to an agrarian life that uses locally available resources, little travel, and no luxuries. A desirable second level is an energy that will provide a quality of life that provides transportation, conveniences, comforts, leisure, entertainment, and opportunities for creative and cultural pursuits. This situation corresponds to an abundant life of Americans living in the suburbs and working in a city, amply supplied with material goods and services. It is mandatory that the first level is assured and that the second level is sought for all people of the world. This goal implies existing differences between conditions in developed and developing nations should be eliminated to the best of our ability.

Conservation provides a means for effectively increasing the supply of energy. Experience has shown that great savings in fuel in developed countries have resulted from changes in lifestyle and improvements in technology. Examples that work are the use of lower room temperatures in winter, shifts to smaller automobiles with more efficient gasoline consumption, increased building insulation, energy-efficient home appliances and industrial motors, and electronically controlled manufacturing. Unfortunately, the move to larger vehicles in the United States was in the wrong direction. There remains considerable potential for additional saving, which has many benefits—conservation of resources, reduced emission of pollutants, and enhanced industrial competitiveness. Finally, there is limited applicability of the concept to underdeveloped countries, where more energy use is needed, not less.

Protection of the environment and of the health and safety of the public will continue to serve as constraints on the deployment of energy technologies. The environmental movement has emphasized the damage being done to the ecology of the rain forest in the interests of development; the harm to the atmosphere, waters, and land from industrial wastes; and the loss of habitats of endangered or valuable species of wildlife. Air pollution caused by emissions from vehicles and coal-fired power plants poses a problem in cities. Less well known is the release of radioactivity from coal plants, in amounts greater than those released from nuclear plants in normal operation. Although a core meltdown followed by failure of containment in a nuclear plant would result in many casualties, the probability of such a severe accident is extremely low. In contrast, there are frequent deaths resulting from coal mining or offshore oil drilling. There is an unknown amount of life-shortening associated with lung problems aggravated by emissions from burning coal and oil.

Eventually, people will appreciate the fact that no technology is entirely risk free. Even the production of materials for solar energy collectors and their installation results in fatalities.

The use of electric power is growing faster than total energy because of its cleanliness and convenience. It is wasteful to use electrical power for low-grade heat that could be provided by other fuels. However, it is likely that the growth will be even more rapid in the future as computer-controlled robot manufacturing is adopted worldwide.

The needs for transportation in developed countries absorb a large fraction of the world's energy supply, largely in the form of liquid fuel. Petroleum serves as a starting point also for the production of useful materials such as plastics. To stretch the finite supply and give more time to develop alternatives, several conservation measures are required. Examples are more efficient vehicles and expansion of public transportation. Later, as oil becomes scarce, it will be necessary to obtain needed hydrocarbons by liquefying coal. This need suggests that coal should be conserved. Rather than expanding coal-fired electrical production, nuclear reactors could be built.

To counter rising costs of gasoline, the “plug-in” automobile is likely to become very popular. The demand for electrical power would increase dramatically and enhance the role of nuclear power.

Nuclear energy itself may very well follow a sequential pattern of implementation. Converter reactors, with their heat energy coming from the burning of uranium-235, are inefficient users of uranium because enrichment is required and spent fuel is disposed of. Breeder reactors, in contrast, have the potential of making use of most of the uranium, thus increasing the effective supply by a large factor. Sources of lower uranium content can be exploited, including very low-grade ores and the dissolved uranium in seawater, because almost all of the contained energy is recovered. To maintain an ample supply of uranium, storage of spent fuel accumulated from converter reactor operations should be considered instead of permanent disposal by burial as a waste. Conventional arguments that reprocessing is uneconomical are not as important when reprocessing is needed as a step in the planned deployment of breeder reactors. Costs for storage of spent fuel should be examined in terms of the value of uranium in a later era in which oil and coal are very expensive to secure. Eventually, fusion that uses deuterium and tritium as fuel may be practical, and fusion reactors would supplant fission reactors as the latter's useful lives end.

Because of the chemical value in the long term of natural gas, oil, and coal, burning them to heat homes and other buildings seems entirely wasteful. Electricity from nuclear sources is preferable. Resistance heating involves use of a high-quality energy for a low-grade process, and it would be preferable to use heat pumps, which use electricity efficiently for heating purposes. As an alternative, it may be desirable to recover the waste heat from nuclear power plants for district heating. To make such a coupling feasible, excellent insulation would be required for the long pipes from condenser to buildings, or the always-safe power plant would be built in close proximity to large housing developments.

Solar energy has considerable potential as a supplement to other heat and electricity sources for homes and commercial buildings, especially where sunlight is abundant. Direct energy solar boilers or arrays of photovoltaic cells are promising sources of auxiliary central-station power to be used in parallel with nuclear systems that augment the supply at night. The large variations in output from solar devices can also be partially compensated for by thermal storage systems, flywheels, pumped water storage, and compressed gas.

The ultimate system for the world is visualized as a mixture of solar and nuclear systems, with distribution dependent on climate and latitude. Breeder reactors or fusion reactors would tend to be located near large centers of manufacturing, whereas the smaller solar units would tend to be distributed in outlying areas. Solar power would be very appropriate for pumping water or desalination of seawater to reclaim desert areas of the world. Other sources, such as hydroelectric, geothermal, and wind, would also be used where those resources exist.

A conclusion that seems inevitable is that every source of energy imaginable should be used in its appropriate niche in the scheme of things. The availability of a variety of sources minimizes the disruption of life in the event of a transportation strike or international incident. Indeed, the availability of several sources that can be substituted for one another has the effect of reducing the possibility of conflict between nations. Included in the mix is extensive use of conservation measures. A corollary is that there should be a great deal of recycling of products. The reclamation of useful materials such as paper, metals, and glass would be paralleled by treating hazardous chemical wastes to generate burnable gas or application as fuel for the production of electricity.

Another conclusion from the preceding scenario is that a great deal of research and development remains to be done to effect a successful transition. Resources of energy and materials are never completely used up; they merely become harder to acquire, and eventually the cost becomes prohibitive. The effects of the status of the world of various assumptions and actions related to energy can be examined by application of program FUTURE in Computer Exercise 27.A.

The oil embargo of 1973, in which limits were placed on shipments from producing countries to consuming countries, had a sobering effect on the world. It prompted a flurry of activity aimed at expanding the use of alternative energy sources such as solar, wind, biomass, and oil shale, along with conservation. Easing of the energy crisis reduced the pressure to find substitutes, and as oil prices fell, automobile travel increased. Use of energy in general is dominated by current economics. If prices are high, energy is used sparingly; if prices are low, it is used freely without concern for the future. Ultimately, however, when the resource becomes more and more scarce and expensive, its use must be curtailed to such an extent that social benefits are reduced. If no new sources are found, or if no renewable sources are available, the quality of existence regresses and man is brought back to a primitive condition. The use of fossil fuels over the long term is dramatically portrayed by the graph of Figure 27.4 presented by Hubbert approximately 50 y ago but no less meaningful today.

Figure 27.4. The epoch of fossil fuels.

(Adapted from Energy Resources: A Report to The Committee on Natural Resources, M. King Hubbert, National Academy of Sciences – National Research Council, Washington, DC, 1962.)

Future civilizations will be astounded at the careless way the irreplaceable resources of oil, natural gas, and coal were wasted by burning, rather than used for the production of durable and recyclable goods.

International tensions are already high because of the uneven distribution of energy supplies. The condition of the world as supplies become very scarce is difficult to imagine. To achieve a long-term solution of the energy problem, money and effort must be devoted to energy research and development that will yield benefits decades and centuries into the future. Individual consumers cannot contribute except to conserve, which merely postpones the problem slightly. One cannot expect the producers of energy to initiate major R&D projects that do not have immediate profits.

The cost of carrying out expanded research and development programs would be very great indeed and difficult to justify in terms of immediate tangible products. But that R&D must be carried out while the world is still prosperous, not when it is destitute as a result of resource exhaustion. The world must take the enlightened view of a prudent person who does not leave his future to chance but invests carefully to survive in later years. In energy terms the world is already approaching its old age.

27.6. Desalination

Throughout the world there are regions that badly need fresh water for drinking and industrial use. Ironically, many are located next to the sea. Removal of salt by application of nuclear heat is a promising solution. Experience with nuclear desalination has been gained in more than 100 reactor-years in Kazakhstan by use of a fast reactor and in Japan by use of light water reactors.

Two modes of reactor application are (a) heat only and (b) electricity and waste heat. The first of these is simpler in that less equipment and maintenance are needed. The second has the benefit of providing a source of electric power.

In either mode, the contribution to the desalination process is the steam from a heat exchanger. There are two general technologies in which the heat can be used by desalination equipment. The first is distillation, in which the water evaporates on contact with a steam-heated surface and is separated from the salt. There are two versions of this technology: multistage flash distillation (MSF), and multieffect distillation (MED). The second is reverse osmosis (RO), in which a porous membrane with a pressure difference separates water from salt. Two subsets of this approach have been tested. To protect the membrane considerable pretreatment is required.

A key parameter of performance of a system is the water volume per unit of heat power. The maximum value, assuming no losses of heat, is calculated from conservation of energy. One watt of heat energy corresponds to 86,400 joules per day. To bring water from 20 °C to 100 °C requires 80 cal/g and vaporization takes 539 cal/g. The total is (619) (4.185) = 2590 J. Thus one watt gives 86,400/2,590 = 33.4 g/d. For a 1,000-MWe nuclear reactor with 2,000 MW waste heat, the maximum daily yield is (2 × 10⁹)(33.4) = 6.68 × 10¹⁰ g/d or 6.68 × 10⁴ m³/d. According to the IAEA approximately 23 million m³/d of desalted water is produced in the world by 12,500 plants, an average of 1,840 m³/d. To double the global water production would require a minimum of 2.3 × 10⁷/(6.68 × 10⁴) = 344 reactors.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is actively promoting the concept of nuclear desalination in several countries. It has published a guidebook to aid member states in making decisions and implementing projects (see References). The IAEA has developed a PC-based computer code DEEP to analyze the economics of an installation. It provides descriptions of the concepts MSF, MED, and RO. A comprehensive article in the magazine Desalination by Megahed gives the history and future possibilities for nuclear desalination, along with a description of activities in Canada, China, Egypt, India, Korea, and Russia (see References).

27.7. Recycling and breeding

The word “cycle” has come to mean the mode of management of nuclear fuels. There are several possibilities: once-through, the method currently used commercially in the United States, leading to used fuel being stored or buried; recycle, in which spent fuel is reprocessed and some of the products reused; closed cycle, with all materials retained in a system, involving nuclear and chemical treatment and burning out many undesired radioisotopes; and breeding, where as much or more fissile material is generated as was supplied initially.

The equipment required for each mode of operation is distinctly different; there are different consequences in terms of safety and security and various associated costs of operation. In the following, we address the topic of breeding, which has had a checkered history as discussed in Chapter 13.

In the post-World War II period 1945–1970, when reactor R&D was underway, it was believed that the reserves of uranium were limited, especially in terms of an expected growth in nuclear power. Thus it was thought necessary to use the U-238 by conversion into Pu-239 by means of reprocessing. The growth did not occur and there turned out to be much more uranium available. Reprocessing was stopped by President Carter and reinstated by President Reagan, but in the meanwhile, industry concluded that the process was too expensive.

Wilson (see References) gives a cogent discussion of reprocessing and breeding, stating that it may be 50 to 100 y before they are needed because uranium ore costs become excessive. However, he proposes an alternative environmental reason for continuing to pursue reprocessing (viz., objection to underground disposal of high-level waste). The breeding cycle that requires reprocessing would reduce the volume of wastes and eliminate many of the long-lived radioisotopes that determine repository character.

One can visualize another important reason for continuing programs of research, development, testing, and deployment of the nuclear, physical, and chemical aspects of recycling and reprocessing. It is the need to maintain an information base that involves data, methodology, and people with technical knowledge and skills. The latter aspect is especially significant in light of the continued retirement of nuclear scientists, engineers, and technicians who have accumulated vast experience over their professional careers. It is noteworthy in this connection that the United States has a habit of abandoning projects that later are found to be of value. With these ideas in mind, we examine the activities identified as promising for the future.

In the Generation IV program two of the concepts are the lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR) and the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), as noted in Chapter 24. A variant of both that features recycling and breeding is the revival of the Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) in the Advanced Fast Reactor (AFR) of Argonne National Laboratory (see References). At the time of its cancellation the IFR was judged to be highly successful. It had the promise of full use of uranium instead of the low percents of light water reactors. The claim was made that such a reactor system has the potential of making nuclear power essentially inexhaustible and of satisfying humanity's long-term energy needs.

As described in Section 13.4, it was a closed cycle with sodium coolant and metal fuel, with pyrometallurgical chemical processing. Because of the high levels of radioactivity in the fuel, diversion and proliferation were virtually impossible. The system had the potential of burning the isotopes that dominate waste repository performance—plutonium, neptunium, americium, and curium. Wastes remaining would have a relatively short half-life and be of small volume, making a second repository unnecessary. Depending on the mode of operation, IFR/AFR-type systems could process surplus weapons plutonium, existing spent fuel, depleted uranium accumulated from isotope separation, and eventually natural uranium.

A powerful case for R&D on a fast reactor is found in an article by Hannum, Marsh, and Stanford (see References). There, a comparison is made among three cycles—once-through, plutonium recycle, and full recycle. The virtues of recycling are thoroughly discussed in testimony to Congress of Philip Finck of Argonne National Laboratory, and the need for the AFR as an extension of IFR is fully described in an article by Chang. An analysis of nuclear fuel reserves and use is provided by an article by Lightfoot, et al. Finally, a 2005 position statement of the American Nuclear Society is titled, “Fast Reactor Technology: A Path to Long-Term Energy Sustainability.”

27.8. The Hydrogen Economy

The potential connection between nuclear power and hydrogen as a fuel was discussed as early as 1973 in an article in Science (see References). There, hydrogen was viewed as an alternative to electricity that is storable and portable. Recently, there has been a growing interest in the use of hydrogen gas instead of oil, natural gas, or coal. This is prompted by several concerns: (a) the uncertain supply of foreign oil and natural gas; (b) the health and environmental impact of polluting combustion gases; and (c) the potential for global warming from the increasing emission of carbon dioxide. A virtue of H² is that it burns with only water as a product.

Hydrogen is useful in the enhancement of low-grade sources of oil, but its greatest application would be in fuel cells, where chemical reactions yield electricity. To avoid the problem of excessive weight of containers to withstand high pressure, hydrogen could be held as a metal hydride, with density of H² comparable to that as a liquid. Gas is released on heating to approximately 300 °C. Studies are in progress on the storage of hydrogen on special surfaces or nanostructures.

Of major importance is the means by which hydrogen is generated. At present it is obtained by treatment of natural gas. It could be derived from coal as well. Both sources give rise to undesired products such as CO². If the carbon dioxide could be successfully sequestered, this problem would be eliminated.

There are two ways in which nuclear reactors could provide the hydrogen as an energy carrier (not as a source in itself). The obvious technique is electrolysis of water, which uses the electricity from a nuclear power plant. Alternately, the heat from a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor is sufficient to initiate thermochemical reactions that have higher efficiency. Of many possible reactions, the leading candidate is the following set. The temperature at which they take place is indicated.

Because the sulfur and iodine are recycled the net reaction is

The energy required is merely the heat of combustion of hydrogen.

Fission of uranium in the reactor as the primary source of energy does not yield carbon dioxide or other gases and provides a more continuous and reliable supply of electricity than wind or solar power. There is an obvious need for an infrastructure for large-scale commercial application of hydrogen fuel, especially for vehicle transportation.

There are two ways hydrogen can be used for transportation—by burning in an internal combustion engine and by serving as a source for fuel cells. A fuel cell is an energy conversion device that produces electricity by the reaction of hydrogen and oxygen to produce water, the reverse of electrolysis. A set of fuel cells can power electric motors that drive an automobile or truck. The most likely type to be used is the polymer exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC). Its components are anode, cathode, membrane, and catalyst.

To be successful technically, onboard storage of hydrogen sufficient for a 300-mile auto drive is required. Tanks with compressed gas at very low temperature would probably be heavy, expensive, and complicated to use. Research is underway on alternatives. One possibility is an ultra-thin metal alloy film, in which there are unusual quantum effects. Lightweight materials like magnesium are promising candidates. Hydrides and carbon nanostructures are being considered as well. To be successful commercially, it would be necessary to provide refueling capability at ordinary gas stations.

Further information on what is now called the hydrogen economy is available in the literature and on the Web (see References). An article in the magazine Physics Today can be downloaded. It highlights the basic research needed to achieve a breakthrough. A committee of the National Research Council developed a 256-page book that can be purchased, but its Executive Summary is on the Web. A description of the hydrogen program of the DOE is also found on the Web. Three articles in Nuclear News provide technical details and calculations on the nuclear power requirements.

27.9. Next Generation Nuclear Plant

The nuclear power field in the United States has come full circle in the choice of reactor type. Graphite served as moderator for reactors at Chicago, Hanford, Oak Ridge, and Brookhaven. Except for reactors at Peach Bottom and Fort St. Vrain, light water reactors have dominated since. But for the future, graphite-moderated reactors seem very promising.

Two concepts have recently been studied. Both make use of coated particles as fuel, with uranium oxide and layers of silicon carbide and carbon to retain fission products. Both use helium gas as coolant and operate at high temperatures.

The first is the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR), initiated by the South African company Eskom. Research is underway at MIT and INL. In the PBMR the coated particles are held in spheres of approximately 3 inches diameter. The reactor core would contain some 450,000 of such spheres, which would flow through the reactor vessel and be irradiated. Information on the reactor is found in the PBMR Web site (see References).

The second is the Gas Turbine Modular Helium Reactor (GT-MHR), designed by General Atomics. The core consists of hexagonal graphite blocks of 36 cm across flats. The prisms are pierced by holes that contain 1.25 cm diameter rods of coated particles mixed with a carbon binder and have holes for the helium coolant. A complete description of the reactor is found in a Nuclear News article (see References).

The Energy Policy Act of 2005 called for the establishment of the Next-Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP). It specified that it should be located at the Idaho National Laboratory and be capable of producing hydrogen. An Independent Technology Review Group (ITRG) was assigned the task of selecting the most promising reactor concept and assessing the requirements for R&D leading to a prototype reactor. The type selected out of an initial group of six was the Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR), which is said to satisfy all requirements on safety, economics, proliferation resistance, waste reduction, and fuel use. Its form could be either the prismatic block or the pebble bed, with the principal investigation into the performance of the coated particle fuel elements at the 900 °C to 950 °C helium temperatures needed for hydrogen production. ITRG noted several needs: (a) to develop a high-temperature H² facility; (b) to address the role of an intermediate heat exchanger to isolate the reactor from the hydrogen unit; (c) to determine the proper dynamic coupling of the two components; (d) to achieve successful fabrication of fuel kernels; and (e) to develop a high-performance helium turbine. Figure 27.5 shows the coupled reactor and hydrogen unit.

Figure 27.5. Very high temperature reactor with hydrogen processing unit. (Courtesy of DOE.)

Some of the preliminary design features are as follows:

• Coolant inlet/outlet temperatures 640/1,000 °C
• Thermal power 600 MW
• Efficiency >50%
• Helium flow rate 320 kg/s
• Average power density 6 to 10 MWt/m³

Additional details are found in a DOE “roadmap” and in an assessment of features and uncertainties by the ITRG (see References).

We can estimate the impact of reactors producing hydrogen gas for use as fuel for transportation in place of gasoline. Consider one reactor of power 600 MWt with 50% efficiency of H² generation. As noted in Section 27.8, the sulfur-iodine process causes the dissociation of water into component gases. By use of the heat of combustion of 142 MJ/kg with hydrogen density 0.09 kg/m³, we find the production rate is 2.03 million cubic meters per day. If that hydrogen is burned in place of gasoline with a heat of combustion of 45 MJ/kg, the equivalent volume of gasoline is 2.06 × 10⁵ gallons per day. The dollar value then depends on the price of gasoline. Computer Exercise 27.B provides details of the preceding calculation.

Completion of tests of fuel integrity for the VHTR is expected around the year 2020. If the tests are successful, a number of very high temperature reactors could be in operation for hydrogen generation by the middle of the 21st century. In addition to the saving of foreign oil, the reactors would contribute significantly to a reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases and help alleviate global climate change.

27.10. Summary

The energy future of the world is not clear, because both optimistic and pessimistic predictions have been made. The population growth of the world remains excessive, with growth rates in underdeveloped countries being highest. Nuclear power may play an important role in achieving sustainable development and in easing international energy tensions. Research and development are seen as key ingredients in the quest for adequate energy. Goals for the future are recycling and breeding, desalination with nuclear power, and the production of hydrogen for transportation both to help prevent global warming and to reduce the need for imported oil. The Very High Temperature Reactor is regarded as the best candidate for the next generation nuclear system.

27.11. Exercises

1. The volume of the oceans of the Earth is 1.37 × 10¹⁸ m³, according to Academic American Encyclopedia, Vol. 14, p. 326. If the deuterium content of the hydrogen in the water is 1 part in 6700, how many kilograms of deuterium are there? With the heat available from deuterium, 5.72 × 10¹⁴ J/kg (see Exercise 14.4) and assuming a constant world annual energy consumption of approximately 300 EJ, how long would the deuterium last?
2. A plan is advanced to bring the standard of living of all countries of the world up to those of North America by the year 2050. A requisite would be a significant increase in the per capita supply of energy to other countries besides the United States and Canada. Assume that the Medium Growth Case of Figure 27.2 is applicable, resulting in a growth from 6 billion to 9 billion people. By what factor would world energy production have to increase? If the electricity fraction remained constant, how many additional 1000-MWe reactors operating at 75% capacity factor (or equivalent coal-fired power plants) would be needed to meet the demand?

Computer Exercises

1. Computer program FUTURE considers global regions and levels of development, mixes of source technology, energy efficiency, resource limitations, population, pollution, and other factors. Some of the methods and data of Goldemberg (see References) are used. Explore the menus, make choices or insert numbers, and observe responses.
2. Computer program VHTR calculates the number of gallons of gasoline equivalent in combustion energy to that in the daily production of hydrogen by a Very High Temperature Reactor. Study the program and make changes in input.

27.12 References

Long 2008 Jane C.S. Long, A Blind Man's Guide to Energy Policy Issues in Science and Technology 200851- Winter

International Energy Annual International Energy Annual

eia http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea

Comprehensive data from Energy Information Administration Comprehensive data from Energy Information Administration, United States Department of Energy, on production and consumption by type, country and region, and year.

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eia http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo

1990 through 1990 through 2030.

Palmer Cosslett Putnam 1953 Palmer Cosslett Putnam Energy in the Future 1953 Van Nostrand New York A classic early study of plausible world demands for energy over the subsequent 50 to 100 years, sponsored by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. Includes a large amount of data and makes projections that were reasonable at the time. Written before the development of commercial nuclear power and before the environmental movement got under way, the book is quite out of date but is worth reading for the thoughtful analysis

Resources and Man 1969 Resources and Man National Academy of SciencesNational Research Council 1969 W. H. Freeman San Francisco Especially Chapter 8, “Energy Resources,” by M. King Hubbert. A sobering study of the future that has been cited frequently

Meadows 1972 Donnella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, William W. Behrens III, The Limits to Growth: A Report for The Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind 1972 Universe Books New York An attempt to predict the future. Conclusion: The world situation is very serious. Influential in its time

Kahn 1976 Herman Kahn, William Brown, Leon Martel, The Next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the World 1976 William Morrow New York Contrast of pessimism and optimism

Hoffmann 1981 Thomas Hoffmann, Brian Johnson, The World Energy Triangle: A Strategy for Cooperation 1981 Ballinger Cambridge A thoughtful investigation of the energy needs of the Third World and assessment of ways developed countries can help to their own benefit. Sponsored by the International Institute for Environment and Development

Weinberg 1985 Alvin M. Weinberg, Continuing the Nuclear Dialogue: Selected Essays 1985 American Nuclear Society La Grange Park, IL (selected and with introductory comments by Russell M. Ball). Dr. Weinberg was a pioneer and philosopher in the nuclear field. Writings span 1946–1985

Goldemberg 1996 Jose Goldemberg, Energy, Environment and Development 1996 Earthscan Publications London Facts, figures, and analyses of energy planning, taking account initially of broad societal goals

Nuclear Power: Technical and Institutional Options for the Future 1992 Nuclear Power: Technical and Institutional Options for the Future 1992 National Academy Press Washington, DC A study by a committee of the National Research Council of ways to preserve the nuclear fission option. An analysis of nuclear power's status, obstacles, and alternatives

An Appropriate Role for Nuclear Power in Meeting Global Energy Needs An Appropriate Role for Nuclear Power in Meeting Global Energy Needs

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Rhodes 1993 Richard Rhodes, Nuclear Renewal: Common Sense About Energy 1993 Penguin Books New York Assessment of risks; programs of France and Japan

Waltar 1995 Alan E. Waltar, America the Powerless: Facing Our Nuclear Energy Dilemma 1995 Cogito Books Madison, WI Poses issues and states realities

Reynolds 1996 Albert B. Reynolds, Bluebells and Nuclear Energy 1996 Cogito Books Madison, WI Includes a discussion of new reactor designs

Carbon 1997 Max W. Carbon, Nuclear Power: Villain or Victim? Our Most Misunderstood Source of Electricity 1997 Pebble Beach Publishers, Madison, WI

Herbst 2007 Alan M. Herbst, George W. Hopley, Nuclear Energy Now 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ Subtitle: Why the Time Has Come for the World's Most Misunderstood Energy Source

Gwyneth Cravens 2007 Gwyneth Cravens Power to Save the World 2007 Alfred A Knopf New York Subtitle: The Truth About Nuclear Energy. A former skeptic embraces nuclear power

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Reid 1995 David Reid, Sustainable Development: An Introductory Guide 1995 Earthscan Publishers London A thoughtful and informative book that describes the issues candidly

Pearce 1998 David Pearce, Economics and Environment: Essays on Ecological Economics and Sustainable Development 1998 Edward Elgar Cheltenham, UK A collection of papers by a distinguished author

Earth Summit Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, 1992

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Agenda 21 adopted Agenda 21 adopted.

Earth Summit+5 Earth Summit+5

un http://www.un.org/esa/earthsummit

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Earth Summit Earth Summit 2002

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Johannesburg Johannesburg (Rio + 10).

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Excerpts from book Excerpts from book. From Worldwatch Institute.

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Search topic Climate Change Search topic Climate Change.

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Select Climate Change/Global Warming-Science Select Climate Change/Global Warming-Science. CO² avoided with nuclear generation.

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