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by Ken Binmore
Rational Decisions
Cover
Half title
Title
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
Preface
1 Revealed Preference
1.1 Rationality?
1.2 Modeling a Decision Problem
1.3 Reason Is the Slave of the Passions
1.4 Lessons from Aesop
1.5 Revealed Preference
1.6 Rationality and Evolution
1.7 Utility
1.8 Challenging Transitivity
1.9 Causal Utility Fallacy
1.10 Positive and Normative
2 Game Theory
2.1 Introduction
2.2 What Is a Game?
2.3 Paradox of Rationality?
2.4 Newcomb’s Problem
2.5 Extensive Form of a Game
3 Risk
3.1 Risk and Uncertainty
3.2 Von Neumann and Morgenstern
3.3 The St Petersburg Paradox
3.4 Expected Utility Theory
3.5 Paradoxes from A to Z
3.6 Utility Scales
3.7 Attitudes to Risk
3.8 Unbounded Utility?
3.9 Positive Applications?
4 Utilitarianism
4.1 Revealed Preference in Social Choice
4.2 Traditional Approaches to Utilitarianism
4.3 Intensity of Preference
4.4 Interpersonal Comparison of Utility
5 Classical Probability
5.1 Origins
5.2 Measurable Sets
5.3 Kolmogorov’s Axioms
5.4 Probability on the Natural Numbers
5.5 Conditional Probability
5.6 Upper and Lower Probabilities
6 Frequency
6.1 Interpreting Classical Probability
6.2 Randomizing Devices
6.3 Richard von Mises
6.4 Refining von Mises’ Theory
6.5 Totally Muddling Boxes
7 Bayesian Decision Theory
7.1 Subjective Probability
7.2 Savage’s Theory
7.3 Dutch Books
7.4 Bayesian Updating
7.5 Constructing Priors
7.6 Bayesian Reasoning in Games
8 Epistemology
8.1 Knowledge
8.2 Bayesian Epistemology
8.3 Information Sets
8.4 Knowledge in a Large World
8.5 Revealed Knowledge?
9 Large Worlds
9.1 Complete Ignorance
9.2 Extending Bayesian Decision Theory
9.3 Muddled Strategies in Game Theory
9.4 Conclusion
10 Mathematical Notes
10.1 Compatible Preferences
10.2 Hausdorff’s Paradox of the Sphere
10.3 Conditioning on Zero-Probability Events
10.4 Applying the Hahn–Banach Theorem
10.5 Muddling Boxes
10.6 Solving a Functional Equation
10.7 Additivity
10.8 Muddled Equilibria in Game Theory
References
Index
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