Strategic Risk • 77
chain. And it is a safe bet that many supply chain managers do not grasp the
strategic risk presented by rare earth metals. While these metals are found
just about everywhere in the earth’s crust, they are found in volume in only a
limited number of commercially viable locations. Rare earth metals include
17 elements: 15 that are known as lanthanoids, plus scandium and yttrium.
ese elements are essential to defense products, such as missile guidance
systems, as well as high- technology products. Unfortunately, at one point
China controlled 97% of rare earth metal output around the globe. And the
country has shown a willingness to play favorites, especially to its own com-
panies. During a recent one- year period a rare earth composite price index
increased 1,500%! Supply chain managers should immediately scan their
supply chain, including subtier suppliers, to identify if and where these met-
als are consumed. Compounding this risk are the relatively few intermedi-
aries that are capable of turning these elements into a seminished form.
Guar and Fracking. e energy boom in the United States from hydrau-
lic fracturing (fracking) has had an interesting secondary eect that
involves, of all things, a bean. Guar, a beanlike vegetable grown mainly
in India is used in countless products, such as ice cream, fertilizer, cattle
feed, chocolate milk, hair conditioner, peanut butter, kitty litter, and cran-
berry sauce. It is what we call a ubiquitous item—it shows up just about
everywhere. e real shock to the guar market occurred when oil and gas
companies began using it as a key ingredient in their fracking solution.
A single oil or gas well can require hundreds of acres of guar production.
During the fracking process guar is mixed with water to thicken the uid
that is forced into the fractures of energy- bearing rock, thereby allowing
oil and gas to seep out.
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Needless to say, the guar market became quite
volatile aer the oil and gas industry became a major guar buyer. Many
companies that use guar did not even know about the pending commod-
ity market disruptions until it was too late to do much about them.
We could present dozens of cases that all lead to one conclusion—com-
panies that are ignorant about their external environment elevate their risk
exposure. Fortunately, thousands of resources are available that provide
all kinds of valuable information and data. And unfortunately, thousands
of resources are available that provide all kinds of external intelligence.
What we are saying is there is almost too much information “out there.”
e need to converge on a set of trusted external sources of information
has never been greater. Table 4.1 summarizes some carefully selected
sources of external intelligence, including supply market intelligence.