An Overview of the Commonwealth of Independent States
Demokratizatsiya
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), also known as the Russian Commonwealth, is a regional bloc of countries formed during the breakup of the Soviet Union, whose participating countries are some former Soviet Republics. The CIS is a loose association of countries. Although the CIS has few supranational powers, it is aimed at being more than a purely symbolic organization, nominally possessing coordinating powers in the realm of trade, finance, lawmaking, and security. It has also promoted cooperation on cross-border crime prevention.
The CIS was established on December 8, 1991, through the Belavezha Accords,1 which also brought a legal end to the Soviet Union. A New York Times article published the next day observed:
Ever since the August coup d’etat, the Soviet Union has been dying a lingering death, its final agony stretched over months of crisis and negotiations while it was kept alive by the frantic faith of one man, Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the Soviet president…Today, the union died—if future historians will accept a death warrant signed by the patient itself as proof.2
The preamble of the Belavezha Accords stated that “the USSR as a subject of international law and a geopolitical reality no longer exists.” Article 1 of the Accords read: “The High Contracting Parties shall constitute the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).” The agreement stated a desire to develop cooperation in political, economic, humanitarian, cultural, and other fields. Parties guaranteed their citizens equal rights and freedoms, irrespective of their nationality or other differences; accepted and respected the territorial integrity of each other and the inviolability of existing borders within the Commonwealth, as well as the openness of borders, free movement of citizens and transfer of information within the Commonwealth. Article 14 determined the city of Minsk the official seat of the coordinating bodies of the Commonwealth.
Leaders from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus signed these accords, dissolving the 1922 Union Treaty.3 Within 2 weeks, on December 21st, in the city of Alma-Ata (Kazakhstan), the heads of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, signed the Declaration on the establishment of the CIS, commonly referred to as the Alma-Ata Protocols.4 These 11 countries were joined by Georgia in December 1993, bringing the total membership to 12 states (the Baltic Republics of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia never joined). Figure 1.1 illustrates the geographic location of the CIS bloc.
Figure 1.1 The 12 CIS bloc countries
Source: interopp.org.
Institutional Integration
The CIS Agreements articulate several goals for the organization, including coordination of members’ foreign and security policies, development of a common economic space (CES), fostering human rights and inter-ethnic concord, maintenance of the military assets of the former USSR, creation of shared transportation and communications networks, environmental security, regulation of migration policy, and efforts to combat organized crime. The CIS is composed of three categories of institutions through which it attempts to integrate states within the framework of the organization and accomplish these goals: Charter Bodies, Executive Bodies, and Bodies of Branch Cooperation.
The Charter Bodies of the CIS are: The Council of the Heads of States, the Council of the Heads of Governments, the Council of Foreign Ministers, the Council of Defense Ministers, the Council of Commanders-in-Chief of Frontier Troops, the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly, and the Economic Court.
The Executive Bodies of the CIS are: The Economic Council, the Council of Permanent Plenipotentiary Representatives of the States-Participants of the Commonwealth under Charter and Other Bodies of the Commonwealth, and the Executive Committee.
The Branches of Cooperation of the CIS are: Anti-Terrorist Center, Interstate Bank, Interstate Statistical Committee, Interstate Council on Standardization Metrology and Certification, Interstate Council on Emergency Situation of natural and Anthropogenic Character, Interstate Council on Antimonopoly Policy, Coordinating Council on the States-Participants on the CIS on Informatization under the regional Commonwealth in the Field of Communications, Electric Energy Council, Interstate Council on Aviation and Air Space Use, Council of the Heads of Statistical Services of the States-Participants of the Commonwealth, Council of the Heads of Customs Services of the States-Participants of the Commonwealth, and more.
Council of the Heads of States
This is a supreme body of the CIS which discusses and solves any principle questions of the Commonwealth connected with the common interests of the States-Participants.
Council of the Heads of Governments
This Council coordinates cooperation of the executive authorities of the States-Participants in economic, social, and other spheres of their common interests. Decisions of the Council of the Heads of States and the Council of the Heads of Governments are adopted by consensus. Any state may declare about its lack of interest in one or another question, the fact being not considered as an obstacle for adopting a decision.
Council of Foreign Ministers
The main executive body ensuring cooperation in the field of foreign policy activities of the States-Participants of the CIS on the matters of mutual interest, adopting decisions during the period between the meetings of the Council of the Heads of States, the Council of the Heads of Governments and by their orders.
This is a body of the Council of the Heads of States responsible for military policy of the States-Participants of the CIS. Its working office is a staff which coordinates military cooperation of the CIS member states, prepares and holds meetings of the Council of Defense Ministers, organizes the activities of groups of military observers and collective forces for peace keeping in the CIS.
Council of Commanders-in-Chief of Frontier Troops
This is a body of the Council of the Heads of States responsible for guarding outer frontiers of the States-Participants and securing stable situation there. Its working office is a Coordinating Service of the Council which organizes preparation and holding of the meetings of this Council, implementation of the decisions adopted by it.
Inter-Parliamentary Assembly
The Assembly was established in March 1995 by the leaders of Supreme Soviets (parliaments) of the Commonwealth countries as a consultative institution to discuss problems of parliamentary cooperation and develop proposals by the parliaments of the CIS states. It consists of parliamentary delegations of the States-Participants of the CIS. The activities of the Assembly are carried out by the Assembly Council which comprises the leaders of the parliamentary delegations. The Assembly Secretariat, headed by Secretary-General, was created to ensure the work of the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly, its Council and commissions.
Economic Court
The Economic Court functions with the aim of ensuring the meeting of economic commitments in the framework of the CIS. Its terms of reference include settlement of interstate economic controversy arising in meeting economic commitments envisaged by Agreements and decisions of the Council of the Heads of States and the Council of the Heads of Governments of the CIS.
The main executive body which ensures implementation of the decisions of the Council of the Heads of States and the Council of the Heads of Governments of the CIS on realization of the Agreement for creation of free trade zone, Protocol to it, as well as for other matters of socio-economic cooperation. The Council adopts the decisions on the matters related to its competence and by the orders of the Council of the Heads of States and the Council of the Heads of Governments of the CIS. Economic Council consists of the Deputy Heads of Governments of States-Participants of the CIS.
Executive Committee
It is the unite permanently functioning executive, administrative, and coordinating body of the CIS, which organizes the activities of the Council of the Heads of States, Council of the Heads of Governments, Council of Foreign Ministers of States-Participants of the CIS, Economic Council, and other bodies of the Commonwealth, prepares proposals on extending economic cooperation in the framework of the CIS, creating and functioning free trade zone, ensuring favorable conditions for transition to higher stage of economic cooperation, developing CES in future, jointly with the States-Participants and the bodies of the Commonwealth develops proposals and draft documents aimed at the development of States-Participants of the CIS in political, economic, social, and other spheres.
Integration Without Unification
Although the CIS was designed in some ways to replicate the economic, political, and historical relationships of the Soviet Union, it was not and is not a separate state or country. Rather, the CIS is an international organization designed to promote cooperation among its members in a variety of fields. Its headquarter is in Minsk, Belarus. Over the years, its members have signed dozens of treaties and agreements, and some hoped that it would ultimately promote the dynamic development of ties among the newly independent post-Soviet states. By the late 1990s, however, the CIS lost most of its momentum and was victimized by internal rifts, becoming, per some observers, largely irrelevant and powerless.5
From its beginning, the CIS had two main purposes. The first was to promote what was called a “civilized divorce” among the former Soviet states. Many feared the breakup of the Soviet Union would lead to political and economic chaos, if not outright conflict over borders. The earliest agreements of the CIS, which provided for recognition of borders, protection of ethnic minorities, maintenance of a unified military command, economic cooperation, and periodic meetings of state leaders, arguably helped to maintain some semblance of order in the region, although one should note that the region did suffer some serious conflicts, of note, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the civil conflicts in Tajikistan, Moldova, and Georgia.
The second purpose of the CIS was to promote integration among the newly independent states. On this score, the CIS had not succeeded. The main reason is that while all parties had a common interest in peacefully dismantling the old order, there has been no consensus among these states as to what, if anything, should replace the Soviet state. Moreover, the need to develop national political and economic systems took precedence in many states, dampening enthusiasm for any project of reintegration. CIS members have also been free to sign or not sign agreements as they see fit, creating a hodgepodge of treaties and obligations among CIS states.
Cooperation in military matters fared little better. The 1992 Tashkent Treaty on Collective Security6 was ratified by a mere six states. While CIS peacekeeping troops were deployed to Tajikistan and Abkhazia, a region of Georgia, critics viewed these efforts as Russian attempts to maintain a sphere of influence in these states. As a “Monroeski Doctrine7” took hold in Moscow, which asserted special rights for Russia on post-Soviet territory, and Russia used its control over energy pipelines to put pressure on other states, there was a backlash by several states against Russia, which weakened the CIS.
Since that time, it has undergone many changes in response to global shifts in economy, politics, security, and conflict. To promote further economic opportunity and integration, in October 2000 the heads of five countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan) signed an Agreement on the creation of Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC or EurAsEC).8 In September 2003 Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine signed an Agreement on Formation of CES.9 As a result of political upheavals between the years of 2003 and 2005, three CIS member states experienced a change of government in a series of color revolutions: Eduard Shevardnadze was overthrown in Georgia, Viktor Yushchenko was elected in Ukraine, and, lastly, Askar Akayev was toppled in Kyrgyzstan.10
While these political and economic shifts have impacted integration efforts, the movement of states in and out of various CIS Agreements and institutions has also created discontinuity and disruption. In October 2005 Uzbekistan stated its intention to join the CIS organization, while in February 2006, Georgia officially withdrew from the Council of Defense Ministers: it so happened that Georgia was working to join NATO and could not be part of two military structures simultaneously. However, Georgia remained a full member of the CIS but following the South Ossetian war in 2008, President Saakashvili announced during a public speech in the capital city Tbilisi that Georgia would leave the CIS and the Georgian Parliament voted unanimously (on August 14, 2008) to withdraw from the regional organization. On August 18, 2008 the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia sent a note to the CIS Executive Committee notifying it of the aforesaid resolutions of the Parliament of Georgia and Georgia’s withdrawal from CIS. In accordance with the CIS Charter, Georgia’s withdrawal came into effect 12 months later, on August 18, 2009. Yet earlier that year, in May 2009 six countries Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine joined the Eastern Partnership, a project which was initiated by the European Union.
After September 11, 2001, the CIS created bodies to help combat terrorism, and some hoped that this might bring new life to the organization. But within a short time of those efforts, in March 2007, Igor Ivanov, the secretary of the Russian Security Council, expressed his doubts concerning the usefulness of CIS, and emphasizing that the Eurasian Economic Community became a more competent organization to unify the biggest countries of the CIS.
Brief State Introductions
Brief introductions with data and analyses from the CIA World Factbook are provided in the following for each state, while a more thorough country scanning of CIS member states is included in Appendix A.
Armenia
Seated in Southwestern Asia, between Turkey (to the west) and Azerbaijan, Armenia views itself as part of Europe. Geopolitically, it can be classified as falling within Europe, the Middle East, or both. The eastern area of Armenia was ceded by the Ottomans to Russia in 1828; this portion declared its independence in 1918, but was conquered by the Soviet Red Army in 1920. It has only two open trade borders—Iran and Georgia—because its borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey have been closed since 1991 and 1993, respectively, as a result of Armenia’s ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan over the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh region. Armenia’s geographic isolation, a narrow export base, and pervasive monopolies in important business sectors have made it particularly vulnerable to the sharp deterioration in the global economy and the economic downturn in Russia. In 2015, the state joined Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan as a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and approved a constitutional referendum that will change the government type to a parliamentary system, replacing the semipresidential system and becoming effective for the 2017 through 2018 electoral cycle.
Recovering commodity prices and Russian economic activity should lead to a robust acceleration in GDP growth this year in Armenia. We see the economy expanding 2.8 percent in 2017, which is down 0.1 percentage points from earlier forecasts, and 3.4 percent in 2018.
Azerbaijan
A nation with a majority-Turkic and majority-Shia Muslim population, Azerbaijan is situated in Southwestern Asia on the border of the Caspian Sea, between Iran and Russia, with a small European portion north of the Caucasus range. The state was briefly independent (1918–1920) following the collapse of the Russian Empire, but was subsequently incorporated into the Soviet Union for seven decades. Azerbaijan has made only limited progress on instituting market-based economic reforms. Corruption in the country is widespread, and the government, which eliminated presidential term limits in a 2009 referendum and approved extending presidential terms from 5 to 7 years in 2016, has been accused of authoritarianism.
Azerbaijan’s GDP growth should accelerate moderately in 2017, as oil and gas prices recover. We expect GDP to grow 1 percent in 2017. For 2018, panelists see growth accelerating to 2 percent.
Belarus
Belarus is located on the edge of Eastern Europe, just east of Poland. After seven decades as a constituent republic of the USSR, Belarus attained its independence in 1991, but has retained closer political and economic ties to Russia than have any of the other former Soviet Republics. It is a presidential republic in name, although most scholars argue that it is, in reality, a dictatorship (see Chapter 6). Economic output, which had declined for several years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, revived in the mid-2000s due to the boom in oil prices. As part of the former Soviet Union, Belarus had a relatively well-developed, though aging industrial base; however, much of it is now outdated, energy inefficient, and dependent on subsidized Russian energy and preferential access to Russian markets.
Belarus GDP purchasing power parity (PPP) was last recorded at $16,621.03 in 2015, which is equivalent to 94 percent of the world’s average. GDP per capita PPP in Belarus averaged $10,505.09 from 1990 until 2015, reaching an all-time high of $17,348.06 in 2014 and a record low of $5,275.43 in 1995.
Georgia
Situated in Southwestern Asia and bordering the Black Sea, between Turkey and Russia, Georgia views itself as part of Europe. Like Armenia, geopolitically, it can be classified as falling within Europe, the Middle East, or both. Georgia was absorbed into the Russian Empire in the 19th century. Independent for 3 years (1918–1921) following the Russian revolution, it was forcibly incorporated into the USSR in 1921 and regained its independence when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. Periodic flare-ups in tension and violence culminated in a 5-day conflict in August 2008 between Russia and Georgia, with Russia unilaterally recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and stationing military forces remain in those regions. Georgia’s economy sustained GDP growth of more than 10 percent in 2006 through 2007, based on strong inflows of foreign investment and robust government spending. However, GDP growth slowed following the 2008 conflict with Russia. Although Georgia completed its withdrawal from the CIS in 2009, it is an important state to evaluate in the context of the organization’s attempts at political and economic integration.
Despite the severe damage the economy of Georgia suffered due to civil strife in the 1990s, the country has been able to recover significantly by 2000, with the help of the IMF and World Bank. Robust GDP growth has been achieved since then. GDP growth, spurred by gains in the industrial and service sectors, remaining in the 9 to 12 percent range in 2005 through 2007, but during 2006 and in 2008, the World Bank named Georgia the top reformer in the world.11
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is located within Central Asia, northwest of China, in an area that was conquered by Russia in the 18th century. It became a Soviet Republic in 1936, and policies implemented by the Soviet government reduced the number of ethnic Kazakhs in the 1930s and enabled non-ethnic Kazakhs to outnumber natives. Through the mid-2000s, however, a national program has repatriated about a million ethnic Kazakhs back to Kazakhstan. The state’s economy is larger than those of all the other Central Asian states largely due to the country’s vast natural resources. Kazakhstan, geographically the largest of the former Soviet Republics, excluding Russia, possesses substantial fossil fuel reserves and other minerals and metals, such as uranium, copper, and zinc. The economic downturn of its EEU partner, Russia, and the decline in global commodity prices have contributed to an economic slowdown in Kazakhstan, which is experiencing its slowest economic growth since the financial crises of 2008 through 2009.
Kazakhstan is an upper-middle-income country with per capita GDP adjusted for PPP, of nearly $22,469 thousand in 2013. Its per capita GDP grew in 2014 although real GDP dropped due to internal capacity constraints in the oil industry, less favorable terms of trade, and an economic slowdown in Russia. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth improved materially followed by a sharp devaluation of the Kazakhstan tenge in February 2014, leading to a strong drop in imports of goods that became more costly. As a result of the devaluation, domestic inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), increased from 4.8 percent year-on-year in December 2013 to 6.9 percent in August 2014, due to higher imported input prices.
Kyrgyzstan
Most of the territory of present-day Kyrgyzstan, situated in Central Asia just to the west of China and south of Kazakhstan, was formally annexed to the Russian Empire in 1876. It became a Soviet Republic in 1936 and achieved independence in 1991 when the USSR dissolved. Kyrgyzstan is a mountainous country with an economy dominated by minerals extraction, agriculture, and reliance on remittances from citizens working abroad. It faced slow growth in recent years as the global financial crisis and declining oil prices have damaged economies across Central Asia, although Kyrgyz leaders hope the country’s August 2015 accession to the Eurasian Economic Union will bolster trade and investment.
After independence in 1992, the Kyrgyz Republic’s economy and public services were hit hard by the break-up of the Soviet economic zone and the end of subsidies from Moscow. Thanks to the adoption of market-based economic reforms in the 1990s, the economy has nearly recovered to its preindependence level of output, but infrastructure and social services have suffered from low investment. With a per capita PPP GDP of $2,920.60 in 2011, the Kyrgyz Republic remains a low-income country. Moreover, the global economic crisis, the political unrest of April and June 2010 and food price increases in 2011 and 2012 have reversed earlier gains in poverty reduction with GDP dropping to $2,869.82. The absolute poverty rate increased from 33.7 percent in 2010 to 36.8 percent in 2011.
Moldova
Located in Eastern Europe, Moldova formed part of Romania during the interwar period and was incorporated into the Soviet Union at the close of World War II. Although the country has been independent from the USSR since 1991, Russian forces have remained on Moldovan territory east of the Nistru River supporting the breakaway region of Transnistria. Despite recent progress, Moldova remains one of the poorest countries in Europe. The government’s stated goal of EU integration has resulted in some market-oriented progress but over the longer term, Moldova’s economy remains vulnerable to corruption, political uncertainty, Russian political and economic pressure, and unresolved separatism in the Transnistria region.
Moldova’s economic performance over the last few years, has been relatively strong, aided by improved fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policy. Moldova experienced the highest cumulative per capita PPP GDP growth, relative to the precrisis year of 2007, in the region. However, growth has been volatile because of climatic and global economic conditions. The GDP per capita in Moldova was last recorded at $4,753.55 in 2014, when adjusted by PPP. The GDP per capita, in the country, when adjusted by PPP is equivalent to 27 percent of the world’s average. GDP per capita PPP in Moldova averaged $3,476.80 from 1990 until 2014, reaching an all-time high of $6,416.46 in 1990 and a record low of $2,267.88 in 1999.
Russia
The expansive territory of Russia includes North Asia bordering the Arctic Ocean, extending all the way from Europe (the portion west of the Urals) to the North Pacific Ocean. Historically speaking, repeated defeats of the Russian army in World War I led to widespread rioting in the major cities of the Russian Empire and to the overthrow in 1917 of the tsarist imperial government. The communists under Vladimir Lenin seized power soon after and formed the USSR. After defeating Germany in World War II as part of an alliance with the United States (1939–1945), the USSR expanded its territory and influence in Eastern Europe and emerged as a global power. The Soviet economy and society stagnated, however, in the decades following Stalin’s rule, until General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev (1985–1991) introduced glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring) in an attempt to modernize communism. Most scholars believe his initiatives inadvertently released forces that by December 1991 splintered the USSR into Russia and 14 other independent states. Following economic and political turmoil during President Boris Yeltsin’s term (1991–1999), Russia shifted toward a centralized, semi-presidential authoritarian state under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin (2000–2008, 2012–present). Russia has undergone significant changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union, moving from a centrally planned economy toward a more market-based system. The state is engaged in several territorial disputes with countries such as Japan, Georgia, Finland, Estonia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, and has outstanding negotiations with the United States, Denmark, Greenland, Norway, Lithuania, and China.
The Russian economy ranks as the 10th largest by nominal GDP and 6th largest by PPP as of 2015.12 Russia’s extensive mineral and energy resources, the largest reserves in the world, have made it one of the largest producers of oil and natural gas globally.13 The country is one of the five recognized nuclear weapons states and possesses the largest stockpile of weapons of mass destruction. Russia was the world’s second biggest exporter of major arms in 2010 through 2014, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) data.14
Tajikistan
Located in Central Asia, west of China and south of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan is a poor, mountainous country with an economy dominated by minerals extraction, metals processing, agriculture, and reliance on remittances from citizens working abroad. The Tajik people came under Russian rule in the 1860s and 1870s, but Russia’s hold on Central Asia weakened following the Revolution of 1917. Bands of indigenous guerrillas (called “basmachi”) fiercely contested Bolshevik control of the area, which was not fully reestablished until 1925. Tajikistan became independent in 1991 following the breakup of the Soviet Union, and experienced a civil war between regional factions from 1992 to 1997. The country remains the poorest in the former Soviet sphere. Although it became a member of the World Trade Organization in March 2013, its economy continues to face major challenges, including dependence on remittances from Tajikistanis working in Russia, pervasive corruption, and the opiate trade in neighboring Afghanistan.
Tajikistan’s GDP per capita was last recorded at $2,532.51 in 2016, when adjusted by PPP. The GDP per capita, in Tajikistan, when adjusted by PPP is equivalent to 14 percent of the world’s average. GDP per capita PPP in Tajikistan averaged $1,849.28 from 1990 until 2014, reaching an all-time high of $3,635.34 in 1990 and a record low of $1,040.23 in 1996.
Turkmenistan
Present-day Turkmenistan, situated in Central Asia and bordering the Caspian Sea, between Iran and Kazakhstan covers territory that has been at the crossroads of civilizations for centuries. The area was once ruled in antiquity by various Persian empires, and was conquered by Alexander the Great, Muslim armies, the Mongols, Turkic warriors, and eventually the Russians. Annexed by Russia in the late 1800s, Turkmenistan later figured prominently in the anti-Bolshevik movement in Central Asia. In 1924, Turkmenistan became a Soviet Republic; it achieved independence upon the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. Largely a desert country with intensive agriculture in irrigated oases and significant natural gas and oil resources, it is reported that 60 percent of gas exports are currently sent to China and the remainder to Russia and Iran.
The Turkmen economy continued strong growth performance in 2016, expanding by 11.1 percent. High growth performance sustained over an extended period of time led to a steady increase in income levels and moved the country to an upper-middle income status. Preliminary outcomes of the annual economic developments demonstrate that the Turkmen economy remains resilient to the global uncertainties stemming from the Eurozone crisis. The GDP per capita in Turkmenistan was last recorded at $14,762.19 in 2015, when adjusted by PPP. The GDP per capita, in Turkmenistan, when adjusted by PPP is equivalent to 83 percent of the world’s average. GDP per capita PPP in Turkmenistan averaged $7,471.40 from 1990 until 2014, reaching an all-time high of $14,762.19 in 2014 and a record low of $4,221.14 in 1997.
Located on the east of Europe and bordering the Black Sea, between Poland, Romania, and Moldova in the west and Russia in the east, Ukraine was the center of the first eastern Slavic state, Kyivan Rus, which during the 10th and 11th centuries was the largest and most powerful state in Europe. Although Ukraine achieved a short-lived period of independence (1917–1920), it did not achieve final independence until 1991 with the dissolution of the USSR. After Russia, the Ukrainian Republic was the most important economic component of the former Soviet Union, producing about four times the output of the next-ranking republic. Yet, democracy and prosperity remain elusive as the legacy of state control and endemic corruption has stalled efforts at economic reform, privatization, and civil liberties. This is further complicated by regional security threats, including Russia’s occupation of Crimea in March 2014 and ongoing aggression in eastern Ukraine–both of which have hurt economic growth. Russia also continues to supply separatists in two of Ukraine’s eastern provinces with manpower, funding, and materiel resulting in an armed conflict with the Ukrainian Government. Representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe meet regularly to facilitate implementation of a peace deal, but scattered fighting between Ukrainian and Russian-backed separatist forces is still ongoing in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s GDP per capita PPP was last recorded at $8,267.07 in 2016, when adjusted by PPP. The GDP per capita, in Ukraine, when adjusted by PPP is equivalent to 47 percent of the world’s average. GDP per capita PPP in Ukraine averaged $6,996.86 from 1990 until 2014, reaching an all-time high of $10,490.37 in 1990 and a record low of $4,462.78 in 1998.
Uzbekistan
Russia conquered the territory of present-day Uzbekistan, located in Central Asia, north of Turkmenistan and south of Kazakhstan, in the late 19th century. Uzbekistan is a landlocked country with more than 60 percent of the population living in densely populated rural communities. Resistance to the Red Army after the Bolshevik Revolution was eventually suppressed and a socialist republic established in 1924. Since its independence in September 1991, the government maintained its Soviet-style command economy with subsidies and tight controls on production and prices. Uzbekistan’s first president following independence, Islom Karimov, led Uzbekistan for 25 years until his death in August 2016. The political transition to his successor was peaceful, but did not follow constitutional processes that would have named the chairman of the Senate as acting president. Recently, lower global commodity prices and economic slowdown in neighboring Russia and China have been hurting Uzbekistan’s trade and investment and worsening its problem of currency shortage.
Since the mid-2000s, Uzbekistan has enjoyed robust GDP growth, thanks to favorable trade terms for its key export commodities like copper, gold, natural gas, cotton, the government’s macro-economic management, and limited exposure to international financial markets that protected it from the economic downturn. Still, the future is not without challenges. The GDP per capita in Uzbekistan was last recorded at $5,319.50 in 2014, when adjusted by PPP. The GDP per capita, in Uzbekistan, when adjusted by PPP is equivalent to 30 percent of the world’s average. GDP per capita PPP in Uzbekistan averaged $3,164.74 from 1990 until 2014, reaching an all-time high of $5,319.50 in 2014 and a record low of $2,216.68 in 1996.
1 The Belavezha Accords is the agreement that declared the Soviet Union effectively dissolved and established the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in its place. It was signed at the state dacha near Viskuli in Belovezhskaya Pushcha on December 8, 1991, by the leaders of three of the four republics-signatories of the Treaty on the Creation of the USSR, including the Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk, and Belarusian Parliament Chairman Stanislav Shushkevich.
2 http://nytimes.com/1991/12/09/world/the-union-is-buried-what-s-beingborn.html
3 The Accords and other signed documents were ratified by the Supreme Soviet of the RSFSR on December 12, 1991. At the same time Russia dissolved the Union Treaty of 1922.
4 The Alma-Ata Protocols are the founding declarations and principles of the CIS.
5 Andrew, R. 2015. “Donbas: A new ‘black hole’ in Europe,” EU Observer, https://euobserver.com/foreign/128618, last accessed in 11/12/2015.
6 The Collective Security Treaty Organization, also known as the “Tashkent Pact” or “Tashkent Treaty,” is an intergovernmental military alliance that was signed on May 15, 1992 by six post-Soviet states belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent States, including Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Three other post-Soviet countries, including Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia, also signed the treaty on the following year. Five years later, six of the nine, all but Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan, agreed to renew the treaty for 5 more years, and in 2002 those six agreed to create the Collective Security Treaty Organization as a military alliance.
7 The “Monroeski Doctrine” was a colloquial description of Boris Yeltsin’s foreign policy strategy in the near abroad. Adapted from the United States’ 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, which prohibited European colonization of the newly independent Latin American republics, the Monroeski Doctrine affirmed the Russian Federation’s position as the dominant power in the entire former Soviet Union. Moscow often invoked the doctrine when it intervened in post-Soviet conflicts in the Newly Independent States of Eurasia, such as the Tajik Civil War and the separatist conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetiya.
8 At present Armenia, Moldova, and Ukraine have the status of the observer under EAEC. For more on the EAEC, see Chapter 3 in this text.
9 For more on the CES, see Appendix A country scans.
10 For more on political risk and regime change, see Chapter 6.
11 World Bank. 2015. “Doing Business: Georgia is This Year’s Top Reformer,” http://worldbank.org/en/country/georgia/overview, last accessed on 01/28/2016.
12 IMF. 2015. ”Report for Selected Countries and Subjects,” http://imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx, last accessed on 01/28/2016.
13 International Energy Agency. 2012. “Oil Market Report,” https://web.archive.org/web/20120518015934/http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/18jan12sup.pdf, last accessed 01/28/2016.
14 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. 2014. “Trends in International Arms Transfer, 2014,” http://books.sipri.org/product_info?c_product_id=495, last accessed 01/28/16.