17. The Future of 3D Printing

Predicting the future is notoriously inaccurate, especially when it comes to technology. Where are the flying cars that 1950s Popular Science magazine promised us “in the near future”? And vacations at space resorts on the moon? On the other hand, who predicted that fax, audiocassettes, VHS, CDs, and DVDs would disappear so quickly?

On the other, other hand “picture phones” that let you see the other person were still science fiction 10–15 years ago, but now we regularly Skype our son and his wife on another continent from our home, or from wherever we can get an Internet connection. And it’s free!

Most 3D printers produce parts made of a small range of plastics and corn starch, with a typical build volume of a cubic foot or smaller. I predict that the range of materials and the size of printers will change significantly to include the following:

Hardened steel for things like custom chain sprockets for racing bicycles

Aluminum engine blocks for experimental and racing cars

Full-size sandstone decorative architectural panels

Full-size concrete houses

I also predict that the following areas will change dramatically because of 3D printing over the next decade:

Food—Long-term space missions such as going to Mars will carry an inventory of basic food ingredients that the astronauts will be able to print to order different meal items such as pizza, bread, doughnuts, steaks, hamburgers, and so on.

Human organs—Doctors will extract human stem cells from a patient’s bone marrow, reproduce them in the laboratory, 3D print a replacement organ, and transplant it back into the patient. There will be no need to use anti-rejection drugs because the organ will be made up of the patient’s own cells.

Medicines—A stock of basic chemical compounds will be used to 3D print custom, build-to-order medications.

Professionals and home hobbyists alike will see changes, including these:

Printer prices will drop down to the $300 range and lower.

3D printers will reproduce, printing many of the parts needed to build another 3D printer.

3D printers will be able to produce full-size display models of things like aircraft jet engines and motorcycles.

You’ll be able to take several photographs of an object and then 3D print them into a physical copy of the original object.

The noted science-fiction writer William Gibson (Neuromancer and Johnny Mnemonic) has said, “The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.” Everything listed so far already exists or is being actively developed, and many of them have already been mentioned in this book. Rule #1: shoot first, and then declare what you hit to have been the target.

The final item on my list—liability lawyers will go into a feeding frenzy. Electronic recording and playback, including Internet distribution, shook up existing copyright laws. Electronic circuits and computer programs have already spawned significant changes to the patent industry.

Well, I believe that you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. For example, if someone downloads a file(s) from the Internet, 3D prints an object, and then someone is injured or killed by it, who is liable? The original designer? The company whose software was used to design the object and/or to drive the printer? The webpage that hosted the files? The 3D printer manufacturer? The supplier of the raw material for the printer? The person who did the actual 3D printing? The person who was using the object? Perhaps some sort of design certification agency needs to evolve.

There is a phrase that has been bandied about in the CAD and 3D printing industries to the effect that they want to “democratize the design process.” You will no longer be tied to the tyranny of what some designer or manufacturer thinks you might buy; instead you’ll be able to design what YOU want.

The problem I see with this is that “design” involves an awful lot more than pretty shapes. Consider something as mundane as a door knob. Can’t find a style you like? No problem. Simply design and print what you want. Okay, but have you considered the appropriate government and industry standards? How about fire ratings? Do you have an American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standard test door in your basement so you can test your design for strength and durability? I spent 27 years designing doorknobs, and I’m a graduate mechanical engineer.

Having said all that, I believe that things will shake out and that the matter replicator is here to stay in one form or another. The Wright brothers flew and men landed on the moon within the lifespan of my oldest uncle. By comparison, the 3D printing industry is still at the level of Lilienthal’s hang gliders.

Sorry, there are no pretty pictures for this section. I tried setting the date and time in my camera to 10 years ahead, but that didn’t work. I even tried the International Date Line trick of having someone in Australia take a picture one day ahead; still no joy.

There are, however, a few things that can be expected to happen as more people and companies embrace the technology:

Every day a new crowd-funded campaign for a different 3D printer design appears with a fresh take on the technology, which is constantly pushing the envelope.

Lower-cost machines and raw materials will be available thanks to the economies of scale.

Software will improve and be easier to use (as we’ve tried to demonstrate with this book).

Innovative printing materials will allow for more practical applications of 3D-printed objects.

All these elements will help propel the technology forward and into the minds of the general public.

The explosion of interest in 3D printing technology in the last few years has been primarily due to the open source community and its involvement in spreading the technology far and wide, into corners that might not have normally adopted this kind of technology.

When you bring new people into a room with a new technology, all kinds of great things can happen, especially when they don’t have a background in that specific technology (sometimes referred to as “baggage”). The open source community also comprises some of the most passionate users of the technology who iterate and innovate literally daily in the space.

As was mentioned earlier in this book, 3D printing is actually composed of a number of technologies. The most commonly described being fused deposition modeling (FDM) because it’s the least expensive and currently most accessible technology available.

With the patents soon expiring (likely already by the time you read this) on selective laser sintering (SLA), it seems inevitable that the next wave of low(er)-cost 3D printers will be SLA based and likely replicate the pricing and availability of FDM printers today, at a higher resolution and quality.

SLA technology also makes it much easier to bring different materials into the mix. There are already a number of projects working on lowering the cost of entry for printing with various metals and other previously expensive raw materials. These powders and resins can result in printed objects that are extremely strong and durable; more natural materials like flexible rubber and silicone, which currently can only be used in injection molding applications, will be possible.

Time will tell if 3D printing can happen inexpensively enough while being safe to work with in a nonindustrial environment like the home or office. This will happen at a very rapid pace thanks to the foundational work and media exposure, again in large part due to the open source community’s work with FDM.

3D printing is already in nearly every possible industry, and its use will continue to grow as the costs go down and more people are exposed to and get their hands on the technology.

Indeed, it’s a very exciting time to be involved in 3D printing.