33  A tetra-transition away from fossil fuels

Svein Jarle Horn

Introduction

In a historical perspective we live in a very special time. This is the fossil era where humanity is consuming Earth’s vast resources of oil, gas and coal. The consumption and depletion of this energy treasure only happens once. Cheap and easily available fossil fuels made the agricultural green revolution possible, which again led to an enormous growth in the world population from 1 billion in 1800 to 7 billion today. The population growth and unsustainable development paths have lead to an explosion in the consumption of resources and energy. But we live on a finite planet; unlimited economic growth is not possible and resource limitations will sooner or later halt the growth.

Our modern civilization is founded on a worldview that emerged with the onset of the Industrial Revolution, when the world was still relatively empty of humans and their infrastructure (Costanza, 2008). Natural resources were abundant and people had limited access to infrastructure and consumer goods. This set of circumstances has been called an “empty” world (Costanza et al., 1997). It was in this empty world that our current worldview of what is desirable and what is possible was shaped. Unending economic growth was envisaged as a real possibility, and was indeed initially possible because we found fossil fuels that could provide the abundant energy which was necessary for this growth. We have been extremely successful the last two centuries, but we have changed our world dramatically along the economic growth path. Our world is now a “full” world, relatively full of humans and their built infrastructure. But our current institutions and technologies are extensions of a long-term trend of adaptation to an empty world. Thus, our modern culture’s worldviews, institutions and technologies are failing to meet our needs in a changing world. Global crises such as climate change, peak oil and loss of ecosystem services can be traced back to one problem: we have failed to adapt our current socioecological system from an empty world to a full world (Beddoe et al., 2009).

Because we now live in a full world with resource and sink restraints “business as usual” is not an option. Our main problem is arguably our addiction to fossil fuels as a source of energy. The consumption of fossil fuels has to be dramatically reduced within the next two decades, both because of climate change and because of the peaking of world oil production. To be able to respond efficiently to these challenges we must substitute the current fragmented pluralistic views of the world with an integral view. To better understand our stress situation, and to be able to respond as effectively as possible, we need a grand perspective. In this chapter a bigger perspective on the transition away from fossil fuels is outlined by 1) showing how peak oil and climate change are interconnected, and 2) by applying Ken Wilber’s integral framework to analyze this transition.

Climate change and peak oil

Carbon dioxide levels are now substantially higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years (Petit et al., 1999; Lüthi et al., 2008). Since the beginning of the industrial revolution anthropogenic production of CO₂, mainly caused by the consumption of fossil fuels, has elevated atmospheric CO₂ levels from a concentration of approximately 280 ppm in pre-industrial times to 394 ppm today (Tans, 2012). If current rates of emissions continue, CO₂ concentrations are projected to reach a range between 535 to 983 ppm by the end of the twenty-first century (IPCC, 2007). It is a broad consensus in the scientific community that this anthropogenic production of CO₂ is affecting the global climate (IPCC, 2007), and the concern is that climate tipping points may be reached where the climate system goes into qualitatively different modes of operation (Lenton et al., 2008).

Climate change, caused by burning of fossil fuels, is only one half of the story. The other half concerns the depletion of these finite energy resources. Extraction of finite non-renewable resources such as e.g. minerals (van der Veen, 2006), phosphorus (Cordell et al., 2009) and fossil fuels typically follow a pattern of growth, peak production and decline. The fact that fossil fuels are finite resources and that their extraction someday will peak was already pointed out in 1949 by the American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert (Hubbert, 1949).

Because of its convenient liquid form and high energy density, oil is much more important for our society and economy than gas and coal. Most of our infrastructure and industry is completely dependent on cheap oil and the transportation sector is run close to 100 percent on liquid fuels. This, together with the fact that world oil production will peak before gas and coal production, is the reason that the main concern related to fossil fuel supply are put on oil.

Oil needs to be discovered before it can be produced. Most oil producing countries have followed a pattern where the peak in discovery occurred 30–40 years before the peak in production. The world as a whole peaked in discovery of oil in 1965, indicating that we may be at or close to the peak in production. We now actually consume about four barrels of oil for every one we discover (Hopkins, 2008). Since mid-2004 world liquid fuels production has been relatively constant around 85 million barrels per day (mb/d) (IEA, 2011; Höök et al., 2009), indicating that new production has only been able to offset the decline in existing production. Oil prices (Brent crude) did rise from $12 a barrel in 1988 to $147 a barrel in July 2008, pointing to an inability of supply to keep up with demand. Following this spike in price was an economic recession and a collapse of the oil price, but prices have again spiked and have for most of 2011 and 2012 been fluctuating between $100 and $120 a barrel. Thus several factors indicate that we may have reached the peak in world oil production. We should also remember that IEA estimates a total oil production of 99 mb/d in 2035, requiring 47 mb/d capacity additions (twice current OPCE Middle East production) just to counter decline in production at existing fields (IEA, 2011).

In 2005 Hirsch and his colleagues published a report commissioned by the US Department of Energy which looked at mitigation strategies for peak oil (Hirsch et al., 2005). In the report peak oil is seen as inevitable and as an enormous problem for our civilization, and also concludes that we need at least a decade to prepare our economy for this transition, preferably 20 years:

Obviously peak oil will slow down the emissions from liquid fuel use. However, it should be stated that these involuntary limits on fuel emissions are not in themselves anywhere near sufficient to address the climate problem. It has been calculated, though, that some of the IPCC scenarios are unrealistic due to fossil fuel limitations (e.g. the A2 scenario; Kharecha and Hansen, 2008).

Both climate change and peak oil must be given importance in decision-making processes. Long-term planning and investment in infrastructure have to consider that we in the future will have less oil available. It is important that we leave oil before oil leaves us. Thus a transition away from fossil fuels is urgently needed. This will be a transition from a fossil-based economy to a bioeconomy based on biomass and renewable energy.

The integral approach

“Integral” in this context specifically refers to the integral theory developed by the contemporary American philosopher Ken Wilber. Over the last 35 years he has published over two dozen books and gradually developed his integral framework, which may be found in its mature form in his latest books (e.g. Wilber, 2006, 2007). Integral theory weaves together insights from all major human disciplines of knowledge, including the natural sciences, the arts and humanities. In this chapter, two elements of the integral model, quadrants and levels, are used to analyze the transition away from fossil fuels.

“Quadrants” refer to the observation that realities can be divided into an inside and an outside perspective, and a singular and plural perspective. These perspectives outline the four quadrants. We as human beings have subjective experiences and intentionality, our interiors, as well as observable behaviors and physiological components, our exteriors. However, individuals are never just alone, but are members of collectives. The interiors of collectives are known as intersubjective cultural realities. The exteriors of collectives, the interobjective domain, are known as ecological and social systems. These four domains may be represented by the four pronouns I, we, it and its, corresponding to the upper left (UL), lower left (LL), upper right (UR) and lower right (LR) quadrants, respectively (see Figure 33.1). The different sciences and other human endeavors of knowledge are typically focused on one of the quadrants. The traditional hard sciences only study exterior realties. Thus, integral theory provides a framework that shows how different approaches and methodologies relate and fit together. This framework acknowledges methodological pluralism and is very useful for understanding and facilitating interdisciplinary research. It may be used to holistically analyze problems and to prescribe solutions.

Integral theory is a developmental theory, and the term “levels” refers to developmental levels. Evolution and development are seen in all four quadrants. From the time they are born all human beings show outer biological and behavioral development in the UR quadrant, corresponding to different levels of psychological development in the UL quadrant. In a historical perspective human societies have developed from hunter-gatherer, to horticultural, to agricultural, to industrial, to information societies (LR quadrant). This outer collective development typically has a corresponding inner cultural development: from archaic, magic, traditional, modern to post-modern culture (Graves, 2005). Development in the right-hand quadrants is characterized by increasing complexity; development in the left-hand quadrants is characterized by increasing levels of consciousness.

Integral theory stresses that we have, both individually and collectively, an interior reality, a factor that is often ignored by mainstream approaches to global problems. If we do not acknowledge interiority we exclude half of reality. Thus, the integral model helps us check the bases when we approach a phenomenon; it organizes knowledge and helps us identify our blind spots.

An integral analysis of the transition away from fossil fuels

LR-quadrant: system change

Peak oil and climate change are typical LR quadrant phenomena. Our use of fossil fuels is increasingly problematic and causes stress on our socio-ecological systems, and a transition to a renewable energy system is urgently needed. To make this transition smooth we have to act before we experience limitations in oil supply. We need abundant energy resources to create a new renewable energy system. Thus, we both have to adapt to change and create change in the LR quadrant. Changes in the LR quadrant will affect the other three quadrants.

Modern civilization has a high level of complexity, which carries a substantial cost in energy and resources. In a future with less energy available we must reduce the complexity of our institutions to increase their resilience. History has shown that favoring simpler institutions increased societies’ chances of surviving during times of decreased energy surplus (Tainter, 1988). It should be noted that modern food supply is highly dependent on the use of fossil fuels. It has been estimated that each American needs 2000 l/year in oil equivalents to supply their food, which accounts for about 19 percent of the total energy use in the USA (Pimentel et al., 2008). Thus energy security and food security are closely interlinked.

In the LR quadrant we have to adapt to climate change and limitations in oil supply. We need new institutions that understand and acknowledge that we now live in a “full” world. We have to create new policies, a non growth-based economic system and a renewable energy system. Most paths from potentially sustainable resources to human needs pass through either biomass or renewable electricity, with biomass being the sole foreseeable sustainable source of fuels, chemicals, materials and food (Lynd et al., 2009). Thus sustainable biomass production and biomass processing will be key technologies to master.

The transition away from fossil fuels is a giant challenge for humanity. However, this is not only a question of new infrastructure and technology in the LR quadrant. To do this transition more effectively we need change in all quadrants: system change, cultural change, psychological change and behavioral change; a tetra-change (see Figure 33.2).

LL-quadrant: cultural change

In the LL quadrant we find cultural phenomena such as beliefs, stories, ideologies, cultural norms, shared meanings and worldviews. These are unseen phenomena that we take for granted but they inform our actions and decision-making. In the developed world we have a consumer culture where increased consumption and unending economic growth is a goal. Mainstream media and advertising tell us that it is possible and indeed desirable to live a happy life. Obviously, this is not a sustainable worldview for a population of 7 billion people living on a finite planet.

Peak oil and climate change are exterior symptoms of an interior reality. Our civilization’s dependence on fuels is the result of choices we collectively have made – choices that are shaped by our understanding of the world, our worldviews. These worldviews are cultural stories that define who we are and they strongly impact on our behaviors. In the modern world we have a story of “progress” that tells us that we as a civilization are advancing further and faster all the time. As long as we hold to this cultural story we believe that “business as usual” is a real possibility.

The challenges of the changes in the LR quadrant will sooner or later lead to changes in the LL quadrant. However, cultural change will happen much faster if we acknowledge our interiority and actively engage in the change process. An interesting example of this is the so called “transition initiative” which originated in the UK. The initiative encompasses community-scale responses to peak oil, focusing on building local resilience by promoting both inner and outer change (Hopkins, 2008). Such local bottom-up responses may be more efficient than the top-down approaches typically used in relation to climate change.

Different regions and countries have different cultures, and even within the same population there exists different segments of culture. Our Western culture is typically composed of traditional-religious, modern-scientific and post-modern-pluralistic worldviews. In a historical context these worldviews trace their origin back to agrarian, industrial and information societies, respectively (LR quadrant). These three worldviews each have their distinct characteristics:

The traditional worldview tends to focus on its own people or group and typically splits reality into good and evil, and is often associated with mythic or religious beliefs. Societies based on this worldview are hierarchical and respect authorities. They are conservative and believe things were better and more sustainable before, but miss the fact that this was mainly due to lower population densities and lack of advanced technology, i.e. a relatively empty world (Costanza, 2008).

The modern worldview is rational and scientific and focuses on progress and technological and economic development. The free individual and the free marketplace are hallmarks of this worldview. It is this kind of thinking that has been the basis for the enormous growth and development we have seen the last two centuries.

The postmodern worldview holds multiple perspectives and understands that context and interpretation are important factors for how we see the world. Postmodernism is anti-hierarchical and emphasizes justice and ethical behavior. Complex issues like climate change are usually well understood, but proposed solutions to problems are not always realistic because they are based on the assumption that soon everybody will share their worldview. Moreover, an emphasis on consensus-building may lead to endless discussions and little action.

Change of worldview takes time (Kegan, 1994) and it is not realistic to believe that everybody will share the postmodern worldview anytime soon. Instead we have to understand and accept that individuals and cultures inhabit different worldviews. Promotion of change thus requires flexibility in communication because change is motivated differently at different worldviews. It is important to know whom one is talking to, what they believe and how they construct meaning.

UL-quadrant: psychological change

Our individual subjectivity encompasses phenomena such as awareness, spirituality, feelings, values, motivation, morals, intellectual capacity, knowledge and understanding. Developmental psychology tells us that complexity of thinking and the ability to take many perspectives changes across a person’s lifetime. People tend to become more inclusive and better able to take multiple perspectives as they mature.

Our world needs responsible people, and particularly leaders, that can take a grand perspective on our interconnected global problems. This also includes the ability to hold longer time frames than typical political election cycles; we need politicians that simultaneously work within the limited political scales of the governance system and yet can also envision and set long-time goals over time spans of 50–100 years. Education and upbringing are extremely important to facilitate the growth of people to their maximum potential. Understanding, motivation and morals are decisive for how people act in the world.

Information about our global problems affects people differently because each human being has a unique perspective. It is also important to acknowledge that people develop and change perspectives, beliefs, values and cognition during their lifetime. Individual psychological change must first involve recognition of the problems associated with fossil fuel addiction. This will change attitudes and motivate people to act differently in the world. Problems and challenges might actually promote the development of new mindsets better able to prescribe solutions.

Many people will lack an understanding of the situation or show indifference. However, other factors such as religion, new laws or economic incentives may also motivate change. It is important to keep in mind that the same behavioral change might be motivated by different causes.

UR-quadrant: behavioral change

Ultimately global problems like population growth, loss of ecosystem services, climate change and resource depletion are caused by human behavior: the number of children per family, what and how much we consume, travel habits, which politicians we vote for – all human behavior. The question then is, of course, which factors are affecting human behavior? The answer from integral philosophy is “all of the three other quadrants!” Ecosystem and infrastructure (LR), culture and worldviews (LL), psychological development and education (UL) – all are important factors affecting human behavior. Factors such as health, nutrition, skills and habits in the UR quadrant itself also affect behavior. We see that the behavioral change needed for the transition way from fossil fuels is more effectively facilitated if it is viewed as a tetra-transition.

Human behavior has created our global problems, and we have to respond and adapt through behavior. We need to transform our behavior by adopting a lifestyle based on sustainable products and renewable energy. We as individuals have to “walk the talk” and reduce our ecological footprint.

Conclusions

Climate change and peak oil are caused by the global economy’s dependence on fossil fuels. They are two sides of the same phenomenon and the transition away from fossil fuel use will be more efficient if this is acknowledged. Indeed, this is the challenge of this century. We are living beyond our means at a time when the supplies of many critical resources will soon be insufficient to enable our current way of living. Is it even possible to produce enough food for the world population in a world marked by climate change and energy limitations?

The analysis carried out in this chapter only serves as an introduction to the use of integral theory, and more comprehensive integral analyses should be carried out in the future (see e.g. Esbjörn-Hargens, 2009). However, the analysis shows how such a holistic framework may help us identify gaps in action and planning, and also gives leads on how different disciplines could work together to solve complex problems. Especially the integration of interiority (from individual interiors such as feelings, values and motivation to collective interiors such as worldviews) and knowledge disciplines like social sciences, psychology and cultural studies, is a valuable contribution of integral theory. The framework also presents a “view from above” where it is clearly seen that no single discipline can see the whole picture of a phenomenon.

Thus, this chapter suggests that the needed transition away from fossil fuels is best facilitated by using a holistic framework for analysis, planning and action. This transition is a complex issue and a transdisciplinary approach is needed to grasp the whole picture. By using Ken Wilber’s Integral Model it was shown that the transition can be viewed as a tetra-transition, where individual, collective, subjective and objective factors must be considered and changed.

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