As you're developing your estate plan, it is vital that you determine how large an estate is necessary to provide for your lifestyle income needs during your lifetime. When the answer to that question indicates a shortfall, you will need to develop a plan for the best way to accomplish this objective. It may involve setting up a retirement plan or other investment program. Some people will find that they have accumulated significantly more assets than they will need to meet all of their financial objectives and retirement income needs. These individuals can begin focusing on wealth transfer strategies during their lifetime instead of waiting until their death. You should assume that until you know whether you have enough assets, you won't be able to implement a truly effective estate plan. In this chapter, we will help you determine the size of the investment estate that you will need to accumulate in order to provide for your retirement income needs.
Let's go through a step-by-step process to determine how much additional capital you need to accumulate for a worry-free retirement. Even if you are certain you have enough money for your retirement, you should still go through this process. By calculating your retirement needs, any excess capital can then be used as part of a wealth transfer strategy.
Determining how much capital you will need at retirement is vital to your estate plan. It is an intricate process involving many complex calculations and, ideally, should be done with the assistance of a professional financial adviser. As a starting point, we will provide two alternative tools you can use to begin to get a feel for the size of the job ahead of you. There are many retirement planning calculators available through the Internet. You will find a user-friendly site at the Resource Center at www.welchgroup.com; click on “Links,” then “Retirement Planning Calculator.” For those of you who prefer to do a manual calculation, we have provided an eight-step process to help you determine your retirement needs. (Readers who have already retired may skip Steps 2 and 6 through 8.)
A word of caution: Many of your assumptions will be little more than educated guesses. Many of these guesses will be wrong. An incorrect assumption can lead to significant errors in the final result. The best solution here is to review your assumptions and expected outcomes often, at least annually. This review and refinement process will lead to much better results.
Determining at what age you would like to retire is fairly easy for most people. We find that most people want the option of being able to quit many years before the typical retirement age of 65. What they are really searching for is financial choice in their life. If their present job becomes too much of a hassle, they want the option of being able, financially speaking, to do something different. The “something different” might be a job that pays a lot less.
Determining how much income is needed at the time of retirement is a more difficult assumption to make. One rule of thumb is to assume that you will need 80 percent of your preretirement income. However, this rule of thumb is not applicable in many individual circumstances. The best way to estimate your future income need is to review current spending patterns and then visualize how expenses will be different at retirement. You will find that many of your current expenses will dramatically decrease or disappear at retirement, while other expenses will increase. For example, the money you spend on children should decrease significantly (does it ever completely go away?). Hopefully, your home mortgage will be fully paid off. Other expenses, such as medical insurance and travel, may be much higher than today. To get a clearer picture, use Worksheet 5.1 to compare your current expenses with estimated expenses at retirement. These retirement expenses should be figured as if you were retiring today. You will adjust the results for inflation later. All expense estimates should be figured on an annual basis. If you'd prefer a downloadable/printable form, visit the Resource Center at www.welchgroup.com; click on “Links,” then “Budget—Retirement Cash Management.”
WORKSHEET 5.1 Retirement Income Worksheet
Estimated
Current Expenses |
Retirement
Expenses (Today's $) |
Increasing | Expense? | |
Home: | ||||
Mortgage or rent | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Real estate taxes | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Maintenance/Repairs | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Utilities: | ||||
Electricity/Gas/Water | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Phone (home and mobile) | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Television and Internet | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Security system | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Insurance: | ||||
Life/Long-term care/Disability | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Health and dental insurance | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Homeowners/Automobile/Liability | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Discretionary: | ||||
Groceries | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Restaurants | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Doctor/Dentist/Prescriptions | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Children (school/activities) | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Clothing and accessories | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Auto gasoline | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Auto repairs and maintenance | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Laundry/Dry cleaning | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Personal care | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Entertainment | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Charity/Gifts | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Pets | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Other | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Debt Payments: | ||||
Auto loans | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Personal loans | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Income taxes | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Other | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Total | $ | $ | Yes | No |
Consider what average rate of return you expect to earn on your investments before you retire. For qualified retirement plan accounts, individual retirement accounts (IRAs), tax-deferred annuities, and life insurance policies, the rate you earn will be your gross rate of return. For personal investment accounts, you are looking for the net rate of return after taxes. As a historical guideline for rate of return, you can expect equity-oriented investments (stocks, real estate) to earn 8 to 10 percent over time, while fixed-income-oriented investments (bonds, certificates of deposit [CDs], money market) to earn 3 to 5 percent over time.
Many people manage their investments more aggressively prior to retirement. The assumption is that you can afford to be more aggressive when you still have earned income and are continuing to invest new money each month or year, and you are reinvesting all your interest, dividends, and capital gains. Once you retire and start drawing income from your investments, you must take greater care to protect your principal. This scenario is discussed in Chapter 4.
We typically use 2 to 3 percent as the estimated inflation rate. Other advisers sometimes use rates as high as 6 percent. Inflation rates over the past 75 years have averaged 3.1 percent. An independent study has concluded that the way our government calculates the Consumer Price Index (CPI) overstates the rate of inflation by as much as 1 percent. We will leave it to you to decide what inflation rate is appropriate for your case facts.
(If you are already retired, you may skip this step.) In Step 1, you estimated what your retirement income needs would be in terms of today's dollars. Now you need to convert that income into future dollars based on the assumed inflation rate (assumption 5). To determine the inflation factor, go to Table 5.1. Across the top of the page, identify the inflation rate you chose in Step 1. Moving down the left margin, identify the number that corresponds with the number of years until you intend to retire. The point where the two numbers intersect is your inflation multiplier. For example, if you choose an inflation rate of 3 percent and you have 20 years until retirement, your inflation multiplier is 1.81. Having identified your inflation multiplier, you should now multiply it by your expected retirement income need, which you determined in Step 1. The result is the income you will need the first year you retire. Since inflation will continue to erode the purchasing power of your income, we will have to account for continuing inflation in later calculations.
TABLE 5.1 Inflation Multiplier Chart
Years until
Retirement |
Estimated Inflation Rate | |||||||
1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | |
1 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 |
2 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.17 |
3 | 1.03 | 1.06 | 1.09 | 1.12 | 1.16 | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.26 |
4 | 1.04 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.22 | 1.26 | 1.31 | 1.36 |
5 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.16 | 1.22 | 1.28 | 1.34 | 1.40 | 1.47 |
6 | 1.06 | 1.13 | 1.19 | 1.27 | 1.34 | 1.42 | 1.50 | 1.59 |
7 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 1.23 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.50 | 1.61 | 1.71 |
8 | 1.08 | 1.17 | 1.27 | 1.37 | 1.48 | 1.59 | 1.72 | 1.85 |
9 | 1.09 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.42 | 1.55 | 1.69 | 1.84 | 2.00 |
10 | 1.10 | 1.22 | 1.34 | 1.48 | 1.63 | 1.79 | 1.97 | 2.16 |
11 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.38 | 1.54 | 1.71 | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.33 |
12 | 1.13 | 1.27 | 1.43 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 2.01 | 2.25 | 2.52 |
13 | 1.14 | 1.29 | 1.47 | 1.67 | 1.89 | 2.13 | 2.41 | 2.72 |
14 | 1.15 | 1.32 | 1.51 | 1.73 | 1.98 | 2.26 | 2.58 | 2.94 |
15 | 1.16 | 1.35 | 1.56 | 1.80 | 2.08 | 2.40 | 2.76 | 3.17 |
16 | 1.17 | 1.37 | 1.60 | 1.87 | 2.18 | 2.54 | 2.95 | 3.43 |
17 | 1.18 | 1.40 | 1.65 | 1.95 | 2.29 | 2.69 | 3.16 | 3.70 |
18 | 1.20 | 1.43 | 1.70 | 2.03 | 2.41 | 2.85 | 3.38 | 4.00 |
19 | 1.21 | 1.46 | 1.75 | 2.11 | 2.53 | 3.03 | 3.62 | 4.32 |
20 | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.81 | 2.19 | 2.65 | 3.21 | 3.87 | 4.66 |
21 | 1.23 | 1.52 | 1.86 | 2.28 | 2.79 | 3.40 | 4.14 | 5.03 |
22 | 1.24 | 1.55 | 1.92 | 2.37 | 2.93 | 3.60 | 4.43 | 5.44 |
23 | 1.26 | 1.58 | 1.97 | 2.46 | 3.07 | 3.82 | 4.74 | 5.87 |
24 | 1.27 | 1.61 | 2.03 | 2.56 | 3.23 | 4.05 | 5.07 | 6.34 |
25 | 1.28 | 1.64 | 2.09 | 2.67 | 3.39 | 4.29 | 5.43 | 6.85 |
26 | 1.30 | 1.67 | 2.16 | 2.77 | 3.56 | 4.55 | 5.81 | 7.40 |
27 | 1.31 | 1.71 | 2.22 | 2.88 | 3.73 | 4.82 | 6.21 | 7.99 |
28 | 1.32 | 1.74 | 2.29 | 3.00 | 3.92 | 5.11 | 6.65 | 8.63 |
29 | 1.33 | 1.78 | 2.36 | 3.12 | 4.12 | 5.42 | 7.11 | 9.32 |
30 | 1.35 | 1.81 | 2.43 | 3.24 | 4.32 | 5.74 | 7.61 | 10.06 |
In Step 2 you determined the total income you would need when you retire. You will need to subtract any income sources you expect to receive at retirement. One source of income will be Social Security. If you have not yet retired, use Table 5.2 to estimate how much Social Security income you will receive.
TABLE 5.2 Social Security Benefits Estimate (2014 estimate)
Assume that worker earnings are at or over maximum
Social Security wage base. |
||
Your Age Today | 62 | 66 |
Your initial annual benefit | $23,778 | $31,704 |
Note: To receive an estimate of your future benefits, contact the Social Security Administration at 1-800-772-1213 or visit www.ssa.gov.
Another possible source of income is your company's pension plan. If your company has one, contact your benefits office or plan trustee and ask for the formula for calculating benefits. Often, the formula is based on years of service and average wages during your last few years (often your last five years). While Social Security is indexed for inflation, pension benefits often are not. You will need to take this into account in your final calculations for retirement capital needed. Any other sources of income should be deducted as well. The results of these adjustments will be the income that you need to draw from your investment accounts (including personal investment accounts, IRAs, company 401(k)s, etc.).
For example, let's say that in Step 2 you determined that your annual retirement income needs will be $120,000 at age 65. You estimate that your Social Security benefit for you and your spouse will be $38,000 per year and that your company pension will pay you $29,000 per year. Your results would look as follows:
Retirement income need | $120,000 |
Social Security benefit | –38,000 |
Pension benefit | –29,000 |
Income needed from your investments | $53,000 |
As you remember from Chapter 4, the withdrawal rate (also referred to as the withdrawal factor) represents the percentage of dollars that you are withdrawing from your total investment portfolio over a calendar year. You want to ensure that your withdrawal rate is not too high, or you will run the risk of depleting your portfolio over time. Based on our experience, an appropriate withdrawal rate scale is as follows:
For a more complete explanation of the withdrawal rate, review Chapter 4.
You are now ready to calculate how large an investment account you must accumulate to meet your goals. Take your answer from Step 3 and divide it by the withdrawal rate you chose in Step 4. Your answer indicates how much additional capital you must accumulate for your retirement. If you are already retired, your answer indicates either that you have more investments than you need or that you don't have enough. If you have more than you need, congratulations! You may skip ahead to Chapter 6. If you don't have enough, review Chapter 4 for strategies you can use to improve your results.
Continuing with our previous example, we have determined that the income needed is $53,000. Let's assume that you have decided on a “moderate” withdrawal factor of 0.05 (5 percent). By dividing $53,000 by 0.05, you come up with $1,060,000, which is the amount of capital necessary to produce a lifetime inflation-adjusted income of $53,000 per year at your retirement. In our example, each year you will withdraw 5 percent of your account balance (a withdrawal factor of 0.05). Since the account is expected to earn between 6 percent and 8 percent over time (assuming a minimum of 60 percent allocation to stocks), your account balance should be growing over time.
Short-term volatility (bear markets) should be expected. The best way to deal with it is to use all portfolio income plus the principal (as needed) from the safety net (CDs, bonds, and money market) portion of your portfolio while you wait for the growth (stocks and stock mutual funds) portion of your portfolio to recover. Once equities rebound, you should then take enough profits to replenish your safety net (fixed income) and bring your portfolio back into balance (see Chapter 4).
(If you have already retired, you may skip Steps 6 through 8.) You know how much money you must accumulate before you retire. Now you will need to determine how far your current investments will go toward meeting your goal. This requires that you estimate the future value of your current investments. You have two choices here. You can assign an average rate of return for all current investments, or you can use a different rate of return for each type of investment. For example, if you have $425,000 in personal mutual funds, $60,000 in CDs, $235,000 in your company 401(k) plan, and $22,000 in your whole life insurance policy (see Table 5.3), you can either assume an aggregate rate of return (averaging the rate of return for all your investments) or use a different rate of return for each asset. With assets that are this dissimilar, using different rates of return would be preferable but also would require more work. At this stage, concern yourself not with current and future contributions but only with current balances.
TABLE 5.3 Current Investment Assets
$425,000 | Personal mutual funds |
$60,000 | CD |
$235,000 | 401(k) |
$22,000 | Cash value whole life policy |
$742,000 | Total investments |
Using Table 5.4, choose the rate of return that you expect to earn on your investments (top row of table). Then, looking down the leftmost column of the table, choose the number that represents the number of years until you retire. The point where these two numbers intersect represents your growth factor. Multiply this factor by the current value of your investment account(s). Your answer represents the expected value of your investment account(s) the day you retire. Unless you averaged the rate of return for all your investments at once, you will need to repeat this process for each investment. If the earnings rate you have assumed is not represented on this form, you can interpolate your growth factor. For example, if you chose a 9.5 percent earnings rate with 20 years until retirement, your growth factor would be the midpoint between the growth factor for 9 percent (5.60) and 10 percent (6.73). To find the midpoint, add the two numbers together, and then divide the sum (12.33) by 2. The result, 6.165, can be rounded up to 6.17, which is the growth factor for a 9.5 percent earnings rate.
TABLE 5.4 Growth Factor Table
Years until
Retirement |
Expected Return on Investment | ||||||
4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | |
1 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 |
2 | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 1.21 |
3 | 1.12 | 1.16 | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.26 | 1.30 | 1.33 |
4 | 1.17 | 1.22 | 1.26 | 1.31 | 1.36 | 1.41 | 1.46 |
5 | 1.22 | 1.28 | 1.34 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 1.54 | 1.61 |
6 | 1.27 | 1.34 | 1.42 | 1.50 | 1.59 | 1.68 | 1.77 |
7 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.50 | 1.61 | 1.71 | 1.83 | 1.95 |
8 | 1.37 | 1.48 | 1.59 | 1.72 | 1.85 | 1.99 | 2.14 |
9 | 1.42 | 1.55 | 1.69 | 1.84 | 2.00 | 2.17 | 2.36 |
10 | 1.48 | 1.63 | 1.79 | 1.97 | 2.16 | 2.37 | 2.59 |
11 | 1.54 | 1.71 | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.33 | 2.58 | 2.85 |
12 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 2.01 | 2.25 | 2.52 | 2.81 | 3.14 |
13 | 1.67 | 1.89 | 2.13 | 2.41 | 2.72 | 3.07 | 3.45 |
14 | 1.73 | 1.98 | 2.26 | 2.58 | 2.94 | 3.34 | 3.80 |
15 | 1.80 | 2.08 | 2.40 | 2.76 | 3.17 | 3.64 | 4.18 |
16 | 1.87 | 2.18 | 2.54 | 2.95 | 3.43 | 3.97 | 4.59 |
17 | 1.95 | 2.29 | 2.69 | 3.16 | 3.70 | 4.33 | 5.05 |
18 | 2.03 | 2.41 | 2.85 | 3.38 | 4.00 | 4.72 | 5.56 |
19 | 2.11 | 2.53 | 3.03 | 3.62 | 4.32 | 5.14 | 6.12 |
20 | 2.19 | 2.65 | 3.21 | 3.87 | 4.66 | 5.60 | 6.73 |
21 | 2.28 | 2.79 | 3.40 | 4.14 | 5.03 | 6.11 | 7.40 |
22 | 2.37 | 2.93 | 3.60 | 4.43 | 5.44 | 6.66 | 8.14 |
23 | 2.46 | 3.07 | 3.82 | 4.74 | 5.87 | 7.26 | 8.95 |
24 | 2.56 | 3.23 | 4.05 | 5.07 | 6.34 | 7.91 | 9.85 |
25 | 2.67 | 3.39 | 4.29 | 5.43 | 6.85 | 8.62 | 10.83 |
26 | 2.77 | 3.56 | 4.55 | 5.81 | 7.40 | 9.40 | 11.92 |
27 | 2.88 | 3.73 | 4.82 | 6.21 | 7.99 | 10.25 | 13.11 |
28 | 3.00 | 3.92 | 5.11 | 6.65 | 8.63 | 11.17 | 14.42 |
29 | 3.12 | 4.12 | 5.42 | 7.11 | 9.32 | 12.17 | 15.86 |
30 | 3.24 | 4.32 | 5.74 | 7.61 | 10.06 | 13.27 | 17.45 |
For another example, assume you plan to retire in 20 years and your current investments are those shown in Table 5.3. One of your investments is a $60,000 CD. Since this is a taxable investment, you need to determine your rate of return after taxes. We have assumed a 28 percent tax bracket for this example, resulting in a net rate of return of 5 percent. By going to Table 5.4 and finding the intersection of 5 percent and 20 years, you will find that the growth factor is 2.65. Note that if you planned to pay all the taxes on your CD with other funds (i.e., you plan to reinvest your interest), you would use the before tax rate of return that corresponds with the growth factor in Table 5.4.
This step involves nothing more than simple arithmetic. Subtract your answer in Step 6 (the future value of your current investments) from your answer in Step 5 (your investment account target). If the result is a negative number, congratulations! You will have more money than necessary to meet your retirement income needs (a surplus). If your answer is a positive number, you have a deficit and must continue investing in order to meet your goal. How much will you need to invest? Continue with Steps 8 and 9 to find the answer.
If your calculations thus far indicate that you will not have accumulated enough money by retirement, you will need to determine how much you need to invest each month in order to meet your goal. If you are not maxing out contributions to your 401(k), traditional IRA, or Roth IRA, that's a good place to start. Be sure to include any employer matching in your calculations.
At this point, it is important to discuss a fundamental investment concept that you must both understand and implement as part of your wealth accumulation plan. The contributions to your investment plan should be based on a percentage of your total income, and therefore, the dollar amount invested should increase as your income rises. Many investment programs automatically do this for you. A good example is a 401(k) program. Typically, you contribute, through payroll deduction, a certain percentage of your income, say 6 percent. As your income rises, the dollar amount of your contributions also rises. Hopefully, your income will increase at least as fast as inflation does. If you feel this will not be the case, then part of your action plan should be to seek employment where there is more opportunity for you. This may require improving your value through additional education or training.
First, you must decide what is an appropriate growth rate on your contributions. By what percentage do you think you can increase your contributions annually? This number should be at least equal to the rate you assumed for inflation. If you are on your company's fast track and you expect your income to rise sharply over your career span, you may want to use a higher number. Next, you need to estimate the rate of return you expect to earn on your investments. Remember that different types of investments will earn different returns. You can either choose an aggregate return for all your investments or do a separate calculation for each. Our preference is to use a separate calculation for each investment. Using Table 5.5, find the contributions growth rate you have chosen. Across the top of that chart, find the investment earnings rate you have assumed for your investment account(s). If it is a taxable investment account, don't forget to adjust your expected earnings rate for taxes! Looking down the leftmost column, find the number that corresponds to the number of years until you plan to retire. Finally, find the point where the number of years until retirement and your investment earnings rate intersect. Multiply this factor by your current annual investment contributions. The result is the expected value, at retirement, of your future contributions to your investment account(s).
TABLE 5.5 Growth Rate Calculator
Contribution Growth Rate of 2% | ||||
Investment Earnings Rate | ||||
Years | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
5 | 5.63 | 5.85 | 6.09 | 6.33 |
10 | 13.06 | 14.30 | 15.67 | 17.18 |
15 | 22.75 | 26.27 | 30.44 | 35.39 |
20 | 35.26 | 43.03 | 52.92 | 65.52 |
25 | 51.26 | 66.28 | 86.80 | 114.93 |
30 | 71.60 | 98.30 | 137.52 | 195.48 |
Contribution Growth Rate of 3% | ||||
5 | 5.74 | 5.97 | 6.20 | 6.45 |
10 | 13.63 | 14.90 | 16.30 | 17.85 |
15 | 24.30 | 27.95 | 32.28 | 37.42 |
20 | 38.50 | 46.70 | 57.10 | 70.31 |
25 | 57.21 | 73.27 | 95.09 | 124.87 |
30 | 81.61 | 110.54 | 152.71 | 214.60 |
Contribution Growth Rate of 4% | ||||
5 | 5.85 | 6.08 | 6.32 | 6.56 |
10 | 14.23 | 15.53 | 16.97 | 18.56 |
15 | 25.98 | 29.78 | 34.28 | 39.61 |
20 | 42.14 | 50.80 | 61.75 | 75.61 |
25 | 64.08 | 81.30 | 104.57 | 136.15 |
30 | 93.56 | 125.00 | 170.48 | 236.77 |
Contribution Growth Rate of 5% | ||||
5 | 5.96 | 6.19 | 6.43 | 6.68 |
10 | 14.87 | 16.20 | 17.67 | 19.30 |
15 | 27.80 | 31.76 | 36.44 | 41.97 |
20 | 46.22 | 55.38 | 66.92 | 81.48 |
25 | 72.05 | 90.55 | 115.40 | 148.97 |
30 | 107.85 | 142.15 | 191.36 | 262.55 |
Contribution Growth Rate of 6% | ||||
5 | 6.08 | 6.31 | 6.56 | 6.81 |
10 | 15.53 | 16.89 | 18.40 | 20.07 |
15 | 29.78 | 33.91 | 38.78 | 44.52 |
20 | 50.80 | 60.51 | 72.69 | 88.01 |
25 | 81.30 | 101.22 | 127.83 | 163.57 |
30 | 125.00 | 162.55 | 215.96 | 292.65 |
Contribution Growth Rate of 7% | ||||
5 | 6.20 | 6.43 | 6.68 | 6.93 |
10 | 16.23 | 17.63 | 19.18 | 20.89 |
15 | 31.94 | 36.25 | 41.31 | 47.27 |
20 | 55.95 | 66.25 | 79.13 | 95.26 |
25 | 92.05 | 113.56 | 142.10 | 180.24 |
30 | 145.63 | 186.88 | 245.04 | 327.90 |
For example, assume that you are currently investing $20,000 per year and that you expect to be able to increase your investment contributions by 3 percent per year. Investments are expected to earn 6 percent, and you plan to retire in 15 years. First, find the portion of Table 5.5 for a contributions growth rate of 3 percent. Next, find the point of intersection between the investment earnings rate and the years until retirement (27.95). Now multiply your investment contributions by this factor:
Subtract your answer here from your answer in Step 7 (your retirement account deficit). If your answer is still a positive number (i.e., a deficit), you will need to consider your options.
Beginning with the Great Recession of 2008 interest rates plummeted to historical lows, wreaking havoc on the finances of retirees, who increasingly find themselves in a struggle to produce enough cash flow to pay their bills. In addition, life has a way of producing financial surprises that force people to dip even further into their retirement savings. Hopefully, you've completed the “How Much Is Enough?” exercise in this chapter or completed a similar exercise elsewhere. Doing so will give you a much clearer perspective of the actions you'll need to take to secure the retirement lifestyle you desire. Whether you are a pre-retiree (10 years or less away from planned retirement) or already retired, here are some strategies you can use to boost your retirement cash flow:
Provide you with a line of credit that you can draw on as needed.
The mortgage company takes all of the risks associated with the loan, and you can never end up owing them money because your house value falls below your total loan amount. This is true for your heirs as well. The loan stays in place for as long as you live in the house. If you move out because of nursing home needs, death, or any other reason, the home must be sold, generally within six months, and any proceeds left after satisfying the loan are returned to you or your heirs. We cover this important topic in more detail later in this chapter. For more information, visit the Resource Center at www.welchgroup.com; click on “Links,” then click on “Reverse Mortgages.”
Use the “two-bucket” strategy for managing income taxes. The perfect retirement client is someone who has substantial investments in both retirement plans (bucket 1) and personal investment accounts (bucket 2). This allows us to manage annual income taxes to the greatest extent. If this is the case for you, we recommend that you perform a “trial income tax return” during the first quarter of the calendar year to estimate your tax liability and give you time for implementing tax planning strategies. In some cases we have taken withdrawals from retirement plans even though it was not required and the client did not need the money. We did it because we could take the money out in a very low tax bracket and reinvest the proceeds in their personal account rather than waiting until they are required to withdraw retirement money (age 701/2 required minimum distributions) and having to take it out at a much higher tax rate. In other cases we've drawn more heavily from personal investment accounts, using both interest and principal, in order to control taxable income. Coauthor, Welch, had a case where, for unusual circumstances, we wanted to pay no income taxes for as long as possible. For eight years this client has paid no income taxes and we expect this will continue for years to come. If you are a pre-retiree or younger, keep in mind the importance of building investments in both retirement plan and personal investment accounts.
What's most important is that you approach retirement having thoroughly assessed your financial situation, reviewed all of your alternatives, and developed a decisive plan of action. If this feels like an overwhelming process, we encourage you to seek the assistance of a qualified professional. We would be happy to make a referral to a professional near you. See our contact information in Appendix A at the end of this book.
A home equity conversion mortgage (HECM), commonly referred to as a reverse mortgage, is essentially the opposite of a traditional mortgage. With a traditional mortgage, you borrow money from a lender and you repay the loan in monthly installments until it is repaid (including interest). With a reverse mortgage, you're taking a loan on your home, and instead of you paying the lender, the lender pays you. You can receive a lump sum, a line of credit, fixed monthly payments (ideal for retirement planning), or a combination of the three choices.
Here's a quick guide to using a reverse mortgage:
Monthly income for life. If you choose to take your money in the form of a monthly income, the income will continue for as long as you remain in the home … even if that's a really long time!
Strategy: Create a monthly income for as long as you and your spouse live in your home. Most people want to live in their home as long as possible. Choosing a monthly income gives you a guaranteed way to help with monthly living costs. For example, a couple, both age 65, own a home worth $500,000; their guaranteed monthly income from a reverse mortgage would be $1,400 per month.
Lump sum. If you choose a lump sum, you are free to do whatever you choose with the money. There are no restrictions.
Strategy: Using the example from above, the couple could receive a $230,000 lump sum. Use this money to pay off other debt or for home improvements.
Line of Credit (LOC). If you choose an LOC, your money sits there waiting for you to draw on it. You pay interest only on the money you take out of your LOC.
Strategy: Use your $230,000 LOC as a standby cash reserve account. No interest is charged except on the money you actually draw from your LOC. Life has a way of periodically creating “cash” emergencies, and this is a good substitute for holding actual cash in a low-interest-rate money market account.
Combination. You can choose a combination of the preceding plans.
Strategy: Mix and match the preceding strategies. For example, you could take a lifetime income to cover some basic monthly bills, take a lump sum to pay off credit card debts or car loan, then use an LOC for basic emergency reserves.
Money coming from a reverse mortgage is not subject to income taxes and will not affect your Social Security.
Strategy: You could use a reverse mortgage LOC to make draws for cash flow, allowing you to postpone taking Social Security until either full retirement age or until age 70, thereby maximizing Social Security benefits (See “Social Security Strategies” in this chapter).
If you need more cash flow for your retirement and have a strong desire to stay in your home for as long as possible, the reverse mortgage is a strategy you should explore. As with any mortgage loan, you'll want to shop around for the best pricing.
Eighty million Baby Boomers are headed for retirement, and for many, Social Security will be the centerpiece of their retirement income plan. Most people approach Social Security with little thought as to how to maximize the benefits for this program they have invested their hard-earned money into for decades. Yet, there are secret strategies that can mean thousands of dollars in additional income for those willing to do a little homework.
First, let's begin with a few basics. If you were born between 1943 and 1954, you can claim a full Social Security benefit (FRA—full retirement age) at age 66. Beginning at age 62, you can take a reduced benefit equal to 75 percent of your full benefit. If you choose to wait beyond your full retirement age, your benefit increases 8 percent per year until age 70 (called delayed retirement credits). See Table 5.6 for a year-by-year schedule of benefits based on what age you choose to begin receiving those benefits. A spouse, at his or her full retirement age, can choose to receive his or her own benefit based on his or her own work record, or he or she can choose to receive a spousal benefit equal to one-half of his or her spouse's benefit. It's worth noting that a divorced spouse, who was married for at least 10 years, also retains both of these options. Finally, a widow or widower may receive his or her deceased spouse's benefit, or he or she may elect to receive his or her own benefit based on his or her own work record. This widow/widower benefit can be taken as early as age 60. It's within these multiple choices that lay the secret strategies.
TABLE 5.6 Social Security Benefits Based on Claiming Age
Claiming Age | Monthly Benefit | % of PIA |
62 | $ 750 | 75 |
63 | 800 | 80 |
64 | 870 | 87 |
65 | 930 | 93 |
66 | 1,000 | 100 |
67 | 1,080 | 108 |
68 | 1,160 | 116 |
69 | 1,240 | 124 |
70 | 1,132 | 132 |
Note: Example is based on $1,000 per month benefit at full retirement age 66. PIA = primary insurance amount.
Before we discuss specific strategies, there's a fundamental question you should ask and answer. What is your current health status (and that of your spouse), and what are your prospects for longevity? To the extent you or your spouse has poor health or otherwise is unlikely to live beyond statistical mortality (see Appendix C at the end of this book), you may be best served beginning Social Security payments as early as possible. The healthier you are and the longer you expect to live, the more it makes sense to take advantage of strategies that postpone drawing Social Security benefits for at least one spouse. For example, coauthor Welch's father had a family history of longevity and he was in excellent health (and still working) when he reached full retirement age. He chose to postpone Social Security payments until the mandatory age 70. At age 95 he's still going strong and has received maximum benefits from Social Security. In fact, we estimate that his total contributions into the Social Security system were approximately $230,000 and that his combined withdrawals (including spousal withdrawals) have thus far exceeded $1.3 million!
By way of an example, let's assume we have a couple in which the husband is age 62 and the wife is age 60; both have worked and earned full Social Security benefits. Assume the husband dies at age 62. Should the wife claim a widow benefit or wait and claim benefits based on her own earnings? She will be eligible for 100 percent of her husband's benefit if she waits until her full retirement age (age 66). She could begin her widow benefit as early as age 60 but the benefits will be reduced (71.0 percent of primary insurance amount [PIA]).
She should consider taking her widow benefit, perhaps as early as age 60 and then switch to her own benefits once she turns age 70. This strategy allows her to begin receiving income early while delaying her own benefits, thus allowing her own benefit to increase to the maximum amount. It also allows her to make use of both her husband's benefit and her benefit versus just her benefit.
In this example, let's assume that both the husband and wife are age 62 and we anticipate that both will live until or beyond their normal life expectancy. Instead of each taking their own benefit early at age 62 or waiting until their age 66 full benefit, the wife takes her early benefit at age 62 and the husband takes a spousal benefit at age 66. Once he turns age 70, he switches to his full benefit and she switches to a spousal benefit equal to one-half of his age 66 full retirement benefit or she continues her benefit, whichever is higher. Remember that if the husband were to die first, the wife would then step up to 100 percent of the husband's age 70 benefit! Under these case facts, the earliest the husband can take a spousal benefit is age 66.
In this example, let's assume only the husband worked while the wife stayed home to raise the children. Here, the husband could begin his full benefit at age 66, then immediately “suspend” his benefit. The wife then begins a spousal benefit equal to one-half of his full (but suspended) benefit. At age 70, he “unsuspends” his benefit, which has now grown to the maximum benefit amount including the 8 percent per year delayed retirement credits from age 66 to age 70.
It's important to note that in each case example, the individual facts are vital in choosing the best strategy. Particularly in strategies 1 and 2, case facts might drive you to reverse the order of which spouse's benefit you choose to begin first. At your (and your spouse's) age 62 and again at age 66, you need to “run the numbers” under various options or have your financial adviser assist you in making this decision. Making the right choice could mean tens of thousands of dollars of additional Social Security benefits.
To determine if your Social Security benefit is taxable, you have to calculate what is called your combined income, which is defined as your adjusted gross income (AGI) plus nontaxable interest (e.g., interest on muni bonds) plus half of your Social Security benefit. Note that only half of your Social Security benefit is used to calculate your combined income. Here are the categories (2014, adjusted annually for inflation):
Are there strategies you can use to reduce taxes on your Social Security benefits?
Let's say you are retired at age 62 and you have the option of taking your Social Security benefit now or deferring until age 70. This strategy involves your deferring your Social Security benefit until age 70 and taking your current income need from your 401(k) or IRA. Your Social Security benefit is increasing each year you delay. You will be required to take required minimum distributions at age 701/2 from your retirement accounts but typically the initial amount is only about 3 percent. The advantage is a much higher Social Security benefit for you (and your spouse should he/she outlive you). For example, if your age 62 benefit was $750 per month, by waiting until age 70 to claim benefits, they would rise to $1,320 per month. Remember that if your spouse survives you, he/she can choose to take 100 percent of your PIA once he or she reaches full retirement age. The goal of this strategy is, once you start taking Social Security, to keep your combined income below the taxable Social Security thresholds, therefore receiving benefits at little or no tax. The risk of this strategy? If you (and your spouse) die before or shortly after age 70, you will have spent retirement plan assets that would have gone to heirs and you would have received little to no Social Security benefits. This strategy works best if you expect your spouse and/or you to live well into your 80s or beyond.
One strategy is to reduce your income by paying off debt. Say you take $100,000 of savings that was producing taxable interest and use it to pay off your $100,000 home mortgage. While your income has gone down, so have your expenses, as well as potentially reducing taxes on your Social Security benefits, especially if you are on the borderline of the 50 percent or 85 percent threshold discussed earlier. Note: Mortgage interest (deduction) is not used in the calculation for taxation of Social Security retirement benefits.
Roth income or distributions are not part of the combined income calculation for Social Security income tax purposes. The year that you convert from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA will likely cause higher taxation on your Social Security benefits that year, but in the years that follow, you may have substantially reduced taxes on your Social Security benefits. An alternative would be to do your Roth conversions over several tax years. It's worth noting that the Roth conversion may also trigger a higher Medicare Part B premium for the year of conversion.
Your particular circumstances will dictate which of these strategies may be appropriate, and I recommend that you seek the advice of your tax adviser.
Some health care experts suggest that retirees could easily spend $300,000 on health care–related expenses that will not be covered by insurance or government programs. One of the best ways to positively impact this number is by carefully matching your health care insurance and prescription program to your specific needs.
At age 65 you become eligible for Medicare, the health insurance program sponsored by the federal government. There are four parts to Medicare. Here's a summary of your basic choices and options:
In general, this covers hospital care, skilled nursing facility, hospice, and home health care. There are limitations as to what is covered in each of these areas, and the individual is responsible for deductibles and copays. If you or your spouse paid Medicare taxes while working, then you do not pay a premium for Part A.
In general, this covers services from doctors, other health care providers, outpatient care, durable medical equipment, home health care, and some preventive services. There are also limitations to what is covered, and the individual is responsible for deductibles and copays. Part B has a monthly premium that can range from $104.90 to $335.70 (2014). Whether you pay the minimum amount or a higher amount is based on your income (i.e., premiums are income tested). For a chart of premium payments based on your income and more information about Medicare Part B, visit the Resource Center at www.welchgroup.com; click on “Links,” then “Medicare Part B—Premiums and Information.” These premiums are adjusted each year.
In general, Medicare Part A and Part B cover 80 percent of your medical costs, and the individual is responsible for the additional 20 percent of costs.
This combines Part A and Part B of Medicare. Private insurance companies approved by Medicare provide this coverage. It is simply combining the parts of Medicare into one plan. Most Medicare Advantage plans also include Part D coverage. The individual is responsible for the premium of the Medicare Advantage plan in addition to Part A (if applicable) and Part B premiums. Each plan has different premium levels, copays, and deductibles that the individual has to pay.
In general, this covers prescription drugs that are approved and covered by Medicare. There are multiple plans available in each state. The individual must pay a premium for the drug plan and is responsible for copays for each prescription.
With the original Medicare option, you have Part A (hospital insurance) and Part B (medical insurance). Remember that Part A and Part B generally pay only 80 percent. Therefore, you must add a supplemental/Medigap plan to cover the additional 20 percent. Each state has supplemental/Medigap plans available, and you must research to find the best plan based on your needs. These plans will have an insurance premium but generally no copays, coinsurance, or deductibles. Therefore, you pay a premium but have no additional out-of-pocket cost with these plans. An average premium for these plans is approximately $200 to $250 per month.
Supplemental/Medigap plans do not cover prescription drugs, so you must add a Part D prescription plan. A Part D prescription plan will cover your prescription drug needs, and the premiums range on average from $20 to $100 per month, depending on your plan choice. Open enrollment is in October of each year and ends by the middle of November.
To summarize, in order to have a complete medical coverage package using the original Medicare plan option, you'll need the following: Medicare Part A and Part B, a supplemental/Medigap plan, and a Part D prescription plan. With this option a person would have a Part B premium, a supplemental/Medigap premium, and Part D premium and copays for prescription drugs.
Best fit: The original Medicare option works best for people who expect to use medical services (and prescription drugs) a lot or for people who want to have a set cost each month for their health care (i.e., monthly insurance premiums). Individuals with original Medicare know in general what their cost will be each month and do not have additional costs when medical services are provided. Most of these Medigap plans are also advantageous for individuals who want the freedom to go to any hospital/doctor that accepts Medicare, therefore not being locked into a particular network.
Medicare Advantage, also known as Part C, combines Medicare Parts A and B into one plan, and most plans also include Part D. Private insurance companies offer the Advantage plans, and each state will have numerous plans available depending on your geographical location. The plan premiums are typically very low, and some are “zero-premium” plans, but you'll have deductibles, coinsurance, and copays. With these plans you'll typically incur out-of-pocket expenses every time you use medical services.
Best fit: These plans work very well for individuals who are healthy and rarely use medical services or prescriptions drugs or individuals who want to pay little or no insurance premiums. By choosing this plan you know you'll pay out-of-pocket expenses ranging from a few dollars to thousands of dollars, depending on the services rendered or prescription drugs required. These plans typically have hospital/doctor networks that you must use for your medical services. The negative is that you are limited to a particular network with most plans, and your favorite physician/hospital may not be a choice.
It is very important that you research the plans each year and make a decision based on your current health and the plans available to you. The plans change each year, so you must be proactive in checking that your plan is still the best for you.
Most people spend more time planning their annual vacation than they do planning for retirement. Certainly, planning for retirement is filled with complexity and can be an overwhelming task. If you need help, get help from a competent financial adviser. Don't wait because time is perhaps the single most critical factor in creating a successful retirement, particularly when related to investing. Not only are financial advisers skilled in such matters, but they also bring a clarity that is free of emotional bias. To find a financial adviser near you, contact author Stewart Welch III at 205-879-5001 or[email protected] (be sure to reference this book). You now have the tools you need to develop your wealth accumulation plan that will deliver the retirement of your dreams!
In the next chapter, you will learn the pitfalls of dying without a will. You will also establish appropriate goals for your estate plan.
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