Part III. Analytics

In the previous two sections of the book, we’ve discussed the types of data you can collect, and tools for manipulating that data. In this section, we focus on taking that data and conducting analyses on this.

Each chapter in this section focuses on a different family of mathematical and analytical techniques that can be used on data, with an emphasis on providing information that is relevant to security and operations. Chapter 11 focuses on the process of exploratory data analysis (EDA), and should be read before anything else. Chapters 12, 13, 14, and 15 are focused on constructs that can support analysis: text analysis, fumbling, volume and time analysis, and graphs. Chapters 16 and 17 discuss specific applications of data for insider threat and threat intelligence, respectively, while Chapters 18 and 19 focus on the basic problems of inventory. Finally, Chapter 20 discusses how analysis teams can work with operations floors to improve performance.

An Overview of Attacker Behavior

We need some vocabulary for talking about how attackers behave. There are a number of papers and studies on attack models that try to break the hacking process into discrete steps. These models range from relatively simple linear affairs to extremely detailed attack trees that attempt to catalog each vulnerability and exploit. I’ll start by laying out a simple but flexible model that contains steps common to a majority of attacks. These are:

Reconnaissance

The attacker scouts out the target. Depending on the type of attack, reconnaissance may consist of Googling, social engineering (posting on message boards to find and befriend users of a network), or active scanning using nmap or related tools.

Subversion

The attacker launches an exploit against a target and takes control. This may be done via a remote exploit, sending a Trojan file, or even password cracking.

Configuration

The attacker converts the target into a system more suitable for his own use. This may involve disabling antivirus packages, installing additional malware, taking inventory of the system and its capabilities, and/or installing additional defenses to prevent other attackers from taking over the target.

Exploitation

The attacker now uses the host for his own purposes. The nature of exploitation varies based on the attacker’s original reason for being interested in the target (discussed shortly).

Propagation

The attacker will, if possible, use the host to attack other hosts. The host may serve as an expendable proxy, attacking neighbors (for example, other hosts behind a firewall on a 192.168.0.0/16 network).

This model isn’t perfect, but it’s a good general description of how attackers behave without getting bogged down in technical minutiae. There are always common tweaks; for example:

  • Peer-to-peer worm propagation and phishing attacks rely on passive exploits and a bit of social engineering. These attacks rely on a target clicking a link or accessing a file, which requires that the bait (the filename or story surrounding it) be attractive enough to merit a click. As I was writing this, for example, I witnessed a spate of phishing attacks using credit ratings as the bait—the earliest informed me that my credit rating had risen, while the latest batch were more ominously warning me of the consequences of a recently dropped credit rating. On peer-to-peer networks, attackers will drop Trojans with the names of current games or albums in order to attract victims. Even in this case, “surveillance” is still possible. The phishing attacks done in many APT attacks often depend on scouting out the population and posting habits of a site before identifying victims likely to respond to a crafted mail.

  • Worms often merge the reconnaissance and subversion stages into one step. Some examples of this are shown later in the book (notably, in Example 13-2, where an attacker just launches exploits against well-known PHP URLs without checking to see if they actually exist).

  • Insider threat attacks will often conduct reconnaissance and subversion out of band, such as by stealing another employee’s password or talking with a sysadmin to find out where assets are. Don’t be surprised if an insider already has all the resources they need to jump straight to exploitation, and completely ignores propagation.

When we think about attackers, we tend to think of technically literate individuals figuring out specific weaknesses on a site in order to grab files or information off of it. This is the classic example of an interested attacker who wants to subvert and control a particular site in order to acquire cash, data, street cred, or who knows what. They make for great stories, and they are significant threats, but they are a small fragment of the attacker population.

The vast majority of attacks today are conducted by uninterested attackers who want to take over as many hosts as possible and don’t care about the fine details of any particular one. Uninterested attacks are largely automated; they have to be in order to tolerate their inordinately high failure rate. Because of this, the reconnaissance and subversion steps are often merged together. An automated worm may simply launch its attack against every host it encounters, regardless of whether the host is vulnerable.

Uninterested attackers rely on tools and the expectation that someone, somewhere, will be vulnerable. In most cases, they won’t even be aware that a host exists until they take it over. Early examples of uninterested attackers harvested robots for DDoS networks. Botmasters would take over a dozen or so machines, install DDoS software on them, and then launch SYN floods against targets. As connectivity increased, the scope and flexibility of botnets increased as well—attackers started to install software to work as proxies, rob images from attached webcams and sell them to porn sites, install spambots, and carry out a virtually limitless catalog of other abuses.

Uninterested attackers consequently operate more like harvesters than traditional targeted attackers. A uninterested attacker runs a script, then filters through the results of that script to see what she’s pulled in. A host has a webcam, and it’s located in a college dorm? Porn feed. A host has a lot of disk space and a fat pipe? File server. A host is a home machine? Keylogger.

This harvest-based approach means that attackers often have little to no idea what they’re taking over. In the early days of SCADA exploits, it was apparent that the attackers had no idea what they were looking at: just a Windows host with some weird applications and extra directories. Even now, it’s not uncommon to see medical hardware taken over and used as a botnet.

In recent years, a host’s “configuration” also includes its role: who owns it, what it’s used for, and what kind of bragging rights can be acquired by bagging it. For example, if two countries share a hostile border, resident hacker rings will deface sites in the opposing country. The US Department of Defense runs literally thousands of websites, ranging from intelligence servers to grade schools. It’s not hard to find a vulnerable site and then announce to the world that you’ve “hacked the DoD!” after the fact.

Analysts need to be aware of this balance between common, stupid, automated attacks and rarer, intelligent, targeted attacks. Smart attackers will rely on the noise generated by stupid attackers. For analysts, this impacts an economy of attention—an analyst can only process so many alerts per shift, and there are only so many effective actions that can be taken. The analytics discussed in this section will help inform these decisions.

Further Reading

  1. E. Hutchins, M. Cloppert, and R. Amin, “Intelligence-Driven Computer Network Defense Informed by Analysis of Adversary Campaigns and Intrusion Kill Chains,” Proceedings of the 2011 International Conference on I-Warfare and Security, Washington, DC, 2006.

  2. S. Caltagirone, A. Pendergast, and C. Betz, “The Diamond Model of Intrusion Analysis,” United States Department of Defense Defense Technical Information Center, Fort Belvoir, VA, Tech. Report No. ADA586960, July 2013.

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