Revealing connections
by Ágnes Vidovics-Dancs, Kata Váradi, Tamás Vadász, Ágnes Tuza, Balázs Árpád Szucs,
R: Data Analysis and Visualization
- R: Data Analysis and Visualization
- Table of Contents
- R: Data Analysis and Visualization
- I. Module 1: Data Analysis with R
- 1. RefresheR
- 2. The Shape of Data
- 3. Describing Relationships
- 4. Probability
- 5. Using Data to Reason About the World
- 6. Testing Hypotheses
- 7. Bayesian Methods
- 8. Predicting Continuous Variables
- 9. Predicting Categorical Variables
- 10. Sources of Data
- 11. Dealing with Messy Data
- 12. Dealing with Large Data
- 13. Reproducibility and Best Practices
- II. Module 2: R Graphs
- 1. R Graphics
- 2. Basic Graph Functions
- Introduction
- Creating basic scatter plots
- Creating line graphs
- Creating bar charts
- Creating histograms and density plots
- Creating box plots
- Adjusting x and y axes' limits
- Creating heat maps
- Creating pairs plots
- Creating multiple plot matrix layouts
- Adding and formatting legends
- Creating graphs with maps
- Saving and exporting graphs
- 3. Beyond the Basics – Adjusting Key Parameters
- Introduction
- Setting colors of points, lines, and bars
- Setting plot background colors
- Setting colors for text elements – axis annotations, labels, plot titles, and legends
- Choosing color combinations and palettes
- Setting fonts for annotations and titles
- Choosing plotting point symbol styles and sizes
- Choosing line styles and width
- Choosing box styles
- Adjusting axis annotations and tick marks
- Formatting log axes
- Setting graph margins and dimensions
- 4. Creating Scatter Plots
- Introduction
- Grouping data points within a scatter plot
- Highlighting grouped data points by size and symbol type
- Labeling data points
- Correlation matrix using pairs plots
- Adding error bars
- Using jitter to distinguish closely packed data points
- Adding linear model lines
- Adding nonlinear model curves
- Adding nonparametric model curves with lowess
- Creating three-dimensional scatter plots
- Creating Quantile-Quantile plots
- Displaying the data density on axes
- Creating scatter plots with a smoothed density representation
- 5. Creating Line Graphs and Time Series Charts
- Introduction
- Adding customized legends for multiple-line graphs
- Using margin labels instead of legends for multiple-line graphs
- Adding horizontal and vertical grid lines
- Adding marker lines at specific x and y values using abline
- Creating sparklines
- Plotting functions of a variable in a dataset
- Formatting time series data for plotting
- Plotting the date or time variable on the x axis
- Annotating axis labels in different human-readable time formats
- Adding vertical markers to indicate specific time events
- Plotting data with varying time-averaging periods
- Creating stock charts
- 6. Creating Bar, Dot, and Pie Charts
- Introduction
- Creating bar charts with more than one factor variable
- Creating stacked bar charts
- Adjusting the orientation of bars – horizontal and vertical
- Adjusting bar widths, spacing, colors, and borders
- Displaying values on top of or next to the bars
- Placing labels inside bars
- Creating bar charts with vertical error bars
- Modifying dot charts by grouping variables
- Making better, readable pie charts with clockwise-ordered slices
- Labeling a pie chart with percentage values for each slice
- Adding a legend to a pie chart
- 7. Creating Histograms
- Introduction
- Visualizing distributions as count frequencies or probability densities
- Setting the bin size and the number of breaks
- Adjusting histogram styles – bar colors, borders, and axes
- Overlaying a density line over a histogram
- Multiple histograms along the diagonal of a pairs plot
- Histograms in the margins of line and scatter plots
- 8. Box and Whisker Plots
- Introduction
- Creating box plots with narrow boxes for a small number of variables
- Grouping over a variable
- Varying box widths by the number of observations
- Creating box plots with notches
- Including or excluding outliers
- Creating horizontal box plots
- Changing the box styling
- Adjusting the extent of plot whiskers outside the box
- Showing the number of observations
- Splitting a variable at arbitrary values into subsets
- 9. Creating Heat Maps and Contour Plots
- 10. Creating Maps
- 11. Data Visualization Using Lattice
- Introduction
- Creating bar charts
- Creating stacked bar charts
- Creating bar charts to visualize cross-tabulation
- Creating a conditional histogram
- Visualizing distributions through a kernel-density plot
- Creating a normal Q-Q plot
- Visualizing an empirical Cumulative Distribution Function
- Creating a boxplot
- Creating a conditional scatter plot
- 12. Data Visualization Using ggplot2
- 13. Inspecting Large Datasets
- 14. Three-dimensional Visualizations
- 15. Finalizing Graphs for Publications and Presentations
- Introduction
- Exporting graphs in high-resolution image formats – PNG, JPEG, BMP, and TIFF
- Exporting graphs in vector formats – SVG, PDF, and PS
- Adding mathematical and scientific notations (typesetting)
- Adding text descriptions to graphs
- Using graph templates
- Choosing font families and styles under Windows, Mac OS X, and Linux
- Choosing fonts for PostScripts and PDFs
- III. Module 3: Learning Data Mining with R
- 1. Warming Up
- 2. Mining Frequent Patterns, Associations, and Correlations
- An overview of associations and patterns
- Market basket analysis
- Hybrid association rules mining
- Mining sequence dataset
- The R implementation
- High-performance algorithms
- 3. Classification
- Classification
- Generic decision tree induction
- High-value credit card customers classification using ID3
- Web spam detection using C4.5
- Web key resource page judgment using CART
- Trojan traffic identification method and Bayes classification
- Identify spam e-mail and Naïve Bayes classification
- Rule-based classification of player types in computer games and rule-based classification
- 4. Advanced Classification
- 5. Cluster Analysis
- 6. Advanced Cluster Analysis
- Customer categorization analysis of e-commerce and DBSCAN
- Clustering web pages and OPTICS
- Visitor analysis in the browser cache and DENCLUE
- Recommendation system and STING
- Web sentiment analysis and CLIQUE
- Opinion mining and WAVE clustering
- User search intent and the EM algorithm
- Customer purchase data analysis and clustering high-dimensional data
- SNS and clustering graph and network data
- 7. Outlier Detection
- Credit card fraud detection and statistical methods
- Activity monitoring – the detection of fraud involving mobile phones and proximity-based methods
- Intrusion detection and density-based methods
- Intrusion detection and clustering-based methods
- Monitoring the performance of the web server and classification-based methods
- Detecting novelty in text, topic detection, and mining contextual outliers
- Collective outliers on spatial data
- Outlier detection in high-dimensional data
- 8. Mining Stream, Time-series, and Sequence Data
- 9. Graph Mining and Network Analysis
- 10. Mining Text and Web Data
- IV. Module 4: Mastering R for Quantitative Finance
- 1. Time Series Analysis
- 2. Factor Models
- 3. Forecasting Volume
- 4. Big Data – Advanced Analytics
- 5. FX Derivatives
- 6. Interest Rate Derivatives and Models
- 7. Exotic Options
- A general pricing approach
- The role of dynamic hedging
- How R can help a lot
- A glance beyond vanillas
- Greeks – the link back to the vanilla world
- Pricing the Double-no-touch option
- Another way to price the Double-no-touch option
- The life of a Double-no-touch option – a simulation
- Exotic options embedded in structured products
- References
- 8. Optimal Hedging
- 9. Fundamental Analysis
- 10. Technical Analysis, Neural Networks, and Logoptimal Portfolios
- 11. Asset and Liability Management
- 12. Capital Adequacy
- 13. Systemic Risks
- V. Module 5: Machine Learning with R module
- 1. Introducing Machine Learning
- 2. Managing and Understanding Data
- R data structures
- Managing data with R
- Exploring and understanding data
- Exploring the structure of data
- Exploring numeric variables
- Measuring the central tendency – mean and median
- Measuring spread – quartiles and the five-number summary
- Visualizing numeric variables – boxplots
- Visualizing numeric variables – histograms
- Understanding numeric data – uniform and normal distributions
- Measuring spread – variance and standard deviation
- Exploring categorical variables
- Exploring relationships between variables
- 3. Lazy Learning – Classification Using Nearest Neighbors
- 4. Probabilistic Learning – Classification Using Naive Bayes
- 5. Divide and Conquer – Classification Using Decision Trees and Rules
- Understanding decision trees
- Example – identifying risky bank loans using C5.0 decision trees
- Understanding classification rules
- Example – identifying poisonous mushrooms with rule learners
- 6. Forecasting Numeric Data – Regression Methods
- Understanding regression
- Example – predicting medical expenses using linear regression
- Understanding regression trees and model trees
- Example – estimating the quality of wines with regression trees and model trees
- 7. Black Box Methods – Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines
- 8. Finding Patterns – Market Basket Analysis Using Association Rules
- 9. Finding Groups of Data – Clustering with k-means
- 10. Evaluating Model Performance
- 11. Improving Model Performance
- 12. Specialized Machine Learning Topics
- Working with proprietary files and databases
- Working with online data and services
- Working with domain-specific data
- Improving the performance of R
- Managing very large datasets
- Learning faster with parallel computing
- GPU computing
- Deploying optimized learning algorithms
- Building bigger regression models with biglm
- Growing bigger and faster random forests with bigrf
- Training and evaluating models in parallel with caret
- A. Reflect and Test Yourself Answers
- Module 1: Data Analysis with R
- Chapter 1: RefresheR
- Chapter 2: The Shape of Data
- Chapter 3: Describing Relationships
- Chapter 4: Probability
- Chapter 5: Using Data to Reason About the World
- Chapter 6: Testing Hypotheses
- Chapter 7: Bayesian Methods
- Chapter 8: Predicting Continuous Variables
- Chapter 9: Predicting Categorical Variables
- Chapter 10: Sources of Data
- Chapter 11: Dealing with Messy Data
- Chapter 12: Dealing with Large Data
- Module 2: R Graphs
- Chapter 1: R Graphics
- Chapter 2: Basic Graph Functions
- Chapter 3: Beyond the Basics – Adjusting Key Parameters
- Chapter 4: Creating Scatter Plots
- Chapter 5: Creating Line Graphs and Time Series Charts
- Chapter 6: Creating Bar, Dot, and Pie Charts
- Chapter 7: Creating Histograms
- Chapter 8: Box and Whisker Plots
- Chapter 9: Creating Heat Maps and Contour Plots
- Module 4: Mastering R for Quantitative Finance
- Module 5: Machine Learning with R
- Chapter 1: Introducing Machine Learning
- Chapter 2: Managing and Understanding Data
- Chapter 3: Lazy Learning – Classification Using Nearest Neighbors
- Chapter 4: Probabilistic Learning – Classification Using Naive Bayes
- Chapter 5: Divide and Conquer – Classification Using Decision Trees and Rules
- Chapter 6: Forecasting Numeric Data – Regression Methods
- Chapter 7: Black Box Methods – Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines
- Chapter 8: Finding Patterns – Market Basket Analysis Using Association Rules
- Module 1: Data Analysis with R
- B. Bibliography
- Index
To start our investigation for shares with huge upside potential, we have to check the connections between individual ratios quantified a year ago and the total return of the next year. For the sake of this chapter, we picked the following ratios. We took the values from 1 year earlier so that we can contrast these with last year's TRS:
- Cash/assets 1 year ago
- Net fixed assets/total number of assets 1 year ago
- Assets/1000 employees 1 year ago
- Price/cash flow average of last 5 years 1 year ago
- Price/cash flow 1 year ago
- Operating income/net sales 1 year ago
- Dividend payout ratio 1 year ago
- Asset turnover 1 year ago
- P/BV 1 year ago
- Operating income/net sales 1 year ago
- Revenue growth in the last 1 year 1 year ago
- Long-term debt/capital 1 year ago
- Debt/EBITDA 1 year ago
- Market capitalization 1 year ago
- P/E 1 year ago
Calculating Pearson's correlation coefficients may be a good start:
d_filt <- na.omit(d)[,setdiff(1:19, c(1,2,18))] cor_mtx <- cor(d_filt) round(cor_mtx, 3)
When looking at the correlation table, there are two important conclusions to draw. They are as follows:
- There are only four financial ratios that show a significant correlation with TRS, but even there, the connections are very weak; that is, they remain in the range between -0.08 and +0.08. This means there is no clear linear connection between any of our ratios and the TRS.
- The financial ratios chosen are quite independent. Out of the 105 (15*14/2) potential connections, only 15 are significant. Even all those fit into the interval of -0.439 and +0.425, and only eight of them have a bigger absolute value than 0.2.
So, we see that it is not easy to set up a good strategy. Just relying on one single ratio would lead us nowhere. We shall go for more complex methods.
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