Table of Contents

Chapter 1 The Nature of Trading

Why Study Market Shocks?

The Nature of Trading

Different Perspectives of Trading

Market Conditions and Sentiment

Making Trading Decisions

Looking Ahead

Chapter 2 Five Simple Questions

Which Market(s)?

Which Direction?

Bear Stearns

The Market Reacts to the Employment Report

Trading Lessons

How Much?

How Long?

The Market Reacts to the Fed

The Market Reacts to the November 2012 Employment Report

How Quickly? Mad Cow Disease

How Quickly? CME Group Stock Price

How Risky?

A Sixth Question

Additional Trading Lessons

Chapter 3 Fads, Fashions, and Bubbles

Is It Really a Bubble?

Can You Profit from “Bubbles”?

Is the Market Smart?

Market Efficiency

Irrational Speculation and the Limits of Rational Analysis

Irrational Pricing

Trading Lessons

Chapter 4 Earnings and Corporate Announcements

Earnings

Google

Apple

Facebook and Zynga

Sudden Drops

New Products—Videogames

Mergers and Acquisitions

Anatomy of a Deal: Bank of America and Countrywide Financial

Quaker Buys Snapple

Merrill Buys FRC

Deals That Fail

Changes at the Top

RIMM Shot

Best Buy

Wellpoint

Regulatory Actions and Lawsuits

Trading Lessons

Chapter 5 Rumor Has It

Rumors

United Airlines Takes a Nosedive

Nokia Misdials

Hyundai Motors

HBOS

Steve Jobs’ Health

Audience Inc.

Position Announcements

“The Oracle of Omaha”

David Einhorn

Carl Icahn

Muddy Waters

Shorted Companies Bite Back

Trading Lessons

Chapter 6 Political Economy

Political Shocks—Terrorist Actions, Wars, Assassinations, and Policy Actions

The 2000 U.S. Presidential Election

Expropriation

Cooling the Economy and Markets

Central Banks to the Rescue

Central Banks as Speculators

The Swiss National Bank

The Bank of Japan

Bank of England

Bank Negara Malaysia

Trading Lessons from Central Bank Interventions in the FX Market

Trading Lessons

Chapter 7 Predatory and Insider Trading

Predatory Trading

Porsche as a Hedge Fund

Whales in Trouble

It Only Takes a Moment

Speculative Attacks—“If at First You Don’t Succeed...”

LIBOR

Gunning for Stops

Informed Trading

Puts on Bear Stearns

Dow Jones & Company Stock

Trading Lessons

Chapter 8 Crashes, Trading Glitches, and Fat-Finger Trades

The May 6, 2010 “Flash Crash”

Trading Lessons

Other Flash Crashes

October 19, 1987 Stock Market Crash

Other Stock Market Crashes

Fat-Finger Trades

Trading Glitches

Trader Errors: “Algos Gone Wild”

Interruptions of Trading on Exchanges

Trading Glitch Case 1: The Tokyo Stock Exchange Suspends Trading

Trading Glitch Case 2.A: The TSE Fails to Cancel Clearly Erroneous Trades

Trading Glitch Case 2.B: The TSE Fails to Cancel Clearly Erroneous Trades

Trading Glitch Case 3: The TSE Suspends Trading

Trading Lessons

Chapter 9 Man Versus Machine

Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading

Old Strategies

New Technology

“New” Strategies

Ramifications

Avoiding HFT

Trading Lessons

Chapter 10 Flight to Safety

Reducing Risk

Credit Default Swaps

Nature of the Crisis

Gold

Treasuries

Currencies

The Paradox of Wealth Preservation

What Is Safe?

Trading Lessons

Chapter 11 Why Most Traders Lose Money

The Banks

Behavioral Finance

Overconfidence

Risk Aversion

Loss Aversion

Disposition Effect

Mental Anchoring

Heuristics Not Statistics

A Tale of Two Losses

Warren Buffet and EFH Bonds

Trading Lessons

Failure to Cut Losses Short

Failure to Let Profits Run

Failure to Listen to the Market

Confusing Trade Conviction with Trade Retention

Excessive Leverage

Trade Size Is Too Large

Trading Too Frequently

Would You Rather Be Right or Rich?

Failure to Have a Viable Trading Game Plan

Failure to Follow a Viable Trading Game Plan

Remaining in a Trade After the Reason for Entering the Trade No Longer Exists

Good Trades That Lose Money Versus Trading Badly

Chapter 12 Developing a Trading Game Plan

Trading Edge and Trader Type

Trading Edge

Trader Types

Trading Thesis

Making a Trading Game Plan

Trading Thesis and Trade Identification

Trade Selection

Choice of Security

Size

Trade Horizon

Risk Control—Stops

Crowded Trades

Correlated Bets

Risk On/Risk Off Markets

Trade Execution

Trade Monitoring and Contingency Plan

Trade Completion and Evaluation

The Message in the Behavior of Market Prices

Trading After a Market Shock

Shocks: Scheduled and Unscheduled

Trading Maxims

Control Yourself, Because You Can’t Control the Market

Get Prepared to Play, Don’t Play to Prepare

Limit Risk—Not Reward

Learn from the Past—Don’t Live in It

There Are No Martyrs in the Market—Only Casualties

Don’t Bet More Than You Can Afford to Lose

Hope Is Not a Plan

Index

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