Deterministic and probabilistic analysis

When an event occurs, the cybersecurity operator only ever sees the symptoms or consequences of the event, rather than the actions themselves. Like a medic, the cybersecurity operator has two tasks: mending the symptoms and treating the cause. Unlike a medic, operators cannot ask the patient questions about the events leading up to the symptoms starting; the data has either already been collected or it is gone. 

To figure out what has happened – in order to establish, and hence to find treatments for, the cause – the operator can choose from two paths, or a combination of both. These two different approaches to analysis are called deterministic and probabilistic. The ability to compare and contrast between these approaches is topic 4.10 in the 210-255 specification:

Implementing Cisco Cybersecurity Operations (210-255) topic list:

4.10 Compare and contrast deterministic and probabilistic analysis

In this section, we will outline the similarities and differences between the two techniques in key areas, before looking at examples of each technique.

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