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52 THE FASHION DESIGN REFERENCE + SPECIFICATION BOOK
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Chapter 4: Forecasting
Forecasting is a multifaceted exercise. It often involves the accumulation and
absorption of massive amounts of information from many different sources.
That body of content is then ltered through the eye of the beholder. In other
words, it is not an exact science and requires human instincts willing to specu-
late on what the market will value in the future. Successful predictions are
usually founded on project-speci c research.
CHANGE
A forecaster needs to be aware of changes in tastes and lifestyles. For example, the threat of
global warming has begun to alter a consumer’s criteria for purchases. A customer who now
wants to know more about what a garment is made of in relation to its impact of the environ-
ment reflects a change in attitudes. A forecaster must keep abreast of technological develop-
ments as well. Computers have transformed society on the whole, but it is important to know
that computer-aided-design has digitized most of the processes that are involved in producing
garments, from illustrations to patternmaking.
Trends in movies and music are not only powerful indicators of what the public has an appetite
for, but will often initiate trends in fashion. The image of the cool tough guy immediately refer-
ences James Dean in Rebel Without a Cause and Marlon Brando in The Wild One. Teenagers to
this day integrate elements of this aesthetic into their wardrobes. In recent years, the fashion
and music industries have come together for Fashion Rocks, a media event that affords each
the opportunity to be associated with the star power of the other. This translates into having
the best of both worlds if one buys into the joint presentation of what is hot—rockers, runway,
stardom.
Constants are also an important part of the dynamic of change. What items will always be
desired or needed? A white shirt seems to be an item that will never be missing from the
market. How does a designer interpret a staple like this within the context of all the forecast-
ing information? Designer Anne Fontaine has made her mark in the industry by building a
business entirely around the idea of the white shirt. Creating hundreds of variations each year,
she balances her customers’ desire for new ideas with their need for this essential part of a
woman’s wardrobe.
Photograph courtesy of Anne Fontaine.
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Anne Fontaine, white shirt, 2009
Photograph courtesy of Anne Fontaine.
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5 4 THE FASHION DESIGN REF ERENCE + SPECIFICATION BOOK
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HISTORY
Taking both distant and recent history into account is an important part of the f orecasting pro-
cess. Are there precedents f or simil ar products? Wil l parents react any dif f erentl y today than
they did in the 1960s w hen miniskirts w ere introduced and marketed to teenage girl s? The de-
l ivery model f or in uencing trends has l ong been one based on trickl e-dow n theory: Someone
at the top of the f ashion f ood chain decides something is w orth putting in the spotl ight, and
in time it makes its w ay to the masses. This rul e hel d f or a l ong time. Now that inf ormation is
so readil y accessibl e, how ever, f ashion has become more democratic, and ideas al so sw im
upstream.
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Harajuku Girl
Photograph by fl ashfi lm/Getty Images.
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STREET
Even the best-crafted intentions of a designer are subject to customers’ interpretations
once they have adopted a garment. Clocking hours of on-the-street observation will provide
insights that cannot be aquired in any other way. Geography is an important factor here. How
a target audience wears clothing in an urban setting could differ drastically from what a similar
demographic will wear at a suburban mall or in a rural setting. Drawing from the street in her
clothing collection, L.A.M.B, as in her music, singer/fashion designer Gwen Stefani has paid
homage to the Harajuku Girls from Tokyo’s Shibuya Ward. Cosplay (costume play) is a perfor-
mance art that factors into the mix of looks in the area, where speci c characters from anime
or manga are translated into fashion. Even the Harajuku categorization can be broken down
into more distinctive subcultures, which include Gothic Lolita as well as Ganguro and Kogal,
two styles that emulate and update variations on the tanned California Valley Girl.
NEWS
Keeping up with news on a local and international level will ensure that social issues, eco-
nomic shifts, and political developments are considered. Culture in its broadest de nition
includes many things, but ethnicity in particular adds to the dynamic based on its prevalence
and popularity. A good example is the growth of the Hispanic population in the United States
and its in uences on the industry on the runway, in advertising, and at the cash register. Data
collection must be comprehensive and interpretations tempered to avoid stereotyping. The
U.S. Hispanic community, for instance, comprises European, North American, South American,
and Caribbean Latinos, representing a kaleidoscope of Latin cultures.
COLOR
The cycle of fashion forecasting usually starts by establishing well in advance the prevalent
color schemes for a season. Companies like Pantone set standards for color and work closely
with designers to predict color trends. The power of color cannot be underestimated: It con-
nects with people through many channels, from the psychological to the physiological to the
aesthetic. Which colors the public embraces serve as a gauge of the society’s current mood,
and forecasters examine a whole range of in uences, not only the economy and politics, but
also the environment, sports, technology, and cultural events, to produce a color prognosis.
Once a direction for color has been determined, it is the job of clothing manufacturers to turn
these choices into raw materials like dyes and yarns.
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5 6 THE FASHION DESIGN REFERENCE + SPECIFICATION BOOK
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FABRIC
The textile industry, then, is the next step in the forecasting supply chain. Manufacturers must
persue their own specialized research to assist them in deciding on how they will interpret color
through fabric. This bridges the gap between color research and the direction designers are
poised to move in. Première Vision is a textile trade show that cooperates with weavers and
raw materials experts to present not only the fabrications of color and texture that designers
can see and touch, but also an expert forecast of their own. Cotton Incorporated, a company
that manufactures, markets, and sells cotton products, does research speci c to their product
and develops trend projections based on that research.
FASHION
Once designers have invested in their choices of color and fabric, they are faced with how to
deliver them. The designer often has a vision in mind, but external in uences may present
interesting deviations from the concept. A designer such as Nicole Miller would undoubtedly
have plans for a dress collection in place at any given time, based on the history of her estab-
lished relationship with her customers. With the announcement that pop icon Madonna was
cast as Eva Perón for the 1996 lm version of the Broadway musical Evita, these plans would
be revisited and possibly modi ed. This would be especially true for the Nicole Miller brand
because of the company’s reputation for designing feminine dresses, a category of garments
that would feature heavily in the lm. The female fashion public was hungry for drama and
a reason to dress up, and the resulting Evita craze prompted Bloomingdale’s to open Evita
Shops that featured designers Victor Costa, Elie Tahari, and Nicole Miller.
STYLISTS
Good stylists have a command of fashion and know how to capture a sense of style for the
performer, character, or personality they are charged with out tting. Getting a designer’s prod-
ucts on the “right” celebrities or in movies and on television is a big part of how quickly they
will be adopted and how successful they will be at the register. Stylists with great forecasting
antennae are often responsible for introducing the shoes, bags, and other adornments that
achieve “It” status. The popular cable television series Sex and the City made shoes a part
of character development, and costumer Patricia Field made Carrie’s passion for footwear a
spotlight for shoe designers. Brands like Manolo Blahnik and Jimmy Choo were respected by
the fashion cognoscenti before the series. As the show became evermore a part of the public
zeitgeist, they became household names, raising the bar for all other shoemakers.
BEAUTY
Shifts in the popularity of makeup and hairstyles are among the easiest to adapt to and
adopt. A designer needs to judge how the swiftness of these changes might re ect on their
work. In the mid-1990s, Heroin Chic was a short-lived beauty trend that could undermine even
Photograph by Katy Winn/Getty Images for IMG.
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