8

The Unfairly Maligned Generation X

WHILE THE BABY Boomers are undoubtedly the most influential generation of the past 100 years, if not the entire history of the United States, Generation X is perhaps the most maligned generation of the past 100 years. Following in the footsteps of the massive Baby Boom generation, the Gen Xers had big shoes to fill, but it was like putting size 6 ½ feet into size 12 combat boots.

Let’s look at the math again: The Baby Boomers by birth numbers added up to 78.2 million people as of the onset of Generation X in 1965. This compares to the 69.5 million native-born Gen Xers, a population 8.7 million smaller than the Boomers preceding them. That is 11 percent smaller, which, when representative of a customer-base decline, would be considered highly significant—perhaps “terrifying” would be a more apt description from a marketer’s point of view.

So what problems do you see with this difference in population? Can you name some of the difficulties this presented as the generations aged through the time continuum?

Japanese sport motorcycle sales! Right on, but I already told you that one.

How about schools, toy sales, pediatric care? And then, further on in time, college and university enrollment, and then the job market? Think Gen X caused some difficulty with all of them? Well, you would be correct.

As Gen X came into the world between 1965 and 1984, toy sales nosedived, schools and maternity wards closed. When the first of them started reaching adulthood, universities and colleges were forced to lower admission standards so as to entice more potential applicants, and jobs went begging. And, in my opinion, this relative scarcity of younger workers and resultant need to raise wages to attract talent was partially responsible for the collapse and offshoring of America’s manufacturing industry.

This dearth of Gen X workers was also partly responsible for the large increase in immigration into the United States, both legal and illegal, with the annual number of legal immigrants surging dramatically starting in 1989, almost as if trying to catch up with the large decline in births that had begun some twenty-four years before. Or, to put it another way, as of 1989, there were more than 1.5 million fewer native-born job seekers ages 20 to 24 than there had been as of 1985. Thus, in 1989 legal immigration almost doubled to about 1.1 million, which was followed in 1990 by a surge to 1.5 million, and then to about 1.8 million in 1991. Not that all of these immigrants were ages 20 to 24, but I’d be willing to bet that a vast majority of them were in their 20s and 30s. And as such, these younger, Gen X–aged immigrants served as padding, so to speak, that helped the native-born Generation X fill those size 12 combat boots. Not that it became a perfect fit, more like padding the insides of the oversize boots with newspaper, but we’ll explore that further later in the chapter.

So, why did the Baby Boom peter out and lead to the diminutive Generation X? Well, a variety of factors contributed to this drop in population. One such factor was certainly the popular perception that Zero Population Growth was the answer to all the earth’s issues and problems. Eliminate the people, eliminate the problems.

Rings hollow to me. Yes, we had fewer kids per couple during the years of 1965 to 1984. Fertility dropped to below replacement level of 2.2 to 2.4 kids per couple to about 1.5 to 1.6 kids per couple. If you don’t replace yourself, your population shrinks. It is not a good thing for marketing. Another obvious reason there are fewer Generation Xers than Baby Boomers is the fact that Generation X had fewer potential parents. Most Generation Xers had Silent Generation (born 1925 to 1944) parents. The Silent Generation was the smallest U.S. generation of the last 100 years. Baby Boomers were primarily the kids of the huge G.I. Generation born 1905 to 1924.

Perhaps a more important question is why weren’t people generally aware of this population decline and taking active steps to mitigate the impacts? People became very aware of the Baby Boom and to a large degree anticipated its implications (it being the first generation to be thoroughly dissected and analyzed by marketers as it was coming into the world), but as the Gen Xers came of age few people seemed to focus on the generation’s diminutive size, but instead chose to chastise them for being lazy, unmotivated couch potatoes. This despite the fact that demographers recognized and had reported on the decline in birth numbers, and that Gen X was referred to as “Baby Bust” long before being labeled Generation X. Instead of acknowledging that there just weren’t enough of them to fill the job market, people seemed to assume that large numbers of Gen Xers were staying home and avoiding work. I’ve said it before: People just can’t seem to count people, especially, it would seem, when distinct populations go into decline.

As the Baby Boom became apparent in the late 1940s, demographer P. K. Whelpton was quoted in Newsweek as saying, “When the number of persons is rising rapidly it is necessary to prepare for the increase. Houses and apartments must be built; streets must be paved; power, light, water, and sewer systems must be extended; existing factories, stores and other business structures must be enlarged or new ones erected; and much machinery must be manufactured.” Why weren’t demographers being quoted about the inverse when the Baby Bust become apparent in the late 1960s and early 1970s?

Generation X is undoubtedly also the most misunderstood American generation of the past 100 years. Heck, people can’t even come close to agreeing to an approximate delineation for it. While the Boomer delineation is generally agreed to span the end of World War II until about the mid-1960s, Xer delineations are all over the map. As noted in Chapter 3, it is often delineated as spanning only ten to fifteen years, and it has wide variations in researcher-denoted year-of-birth spans.

Only ten to fifteen years, really? And how can a researcher justify starting Gen X in 1961 when the Baby Boom was still very much in full swing? Or for that matter starting the generation in 1970, long after the Baby Boom was over? No wonder Generation X is so hard to define and that researchers can’t seem to agree on what distinguishes the generation.

Generation X, now aged 33 to 52, has grown to a population of 82.9 million, thanks to the addition of about 13.4 million Gen X immigrants. While those immigrants did not arrive in time to help maintain the robust Baby Boom–influenced sale of Japanese sport motorcycles or Levi’s jeans, they will undoubtedly help mitigate what could be a looming catastrophe.

Say what? you ask.

Think about this: By birth numbers Gen X was 11 percent smaller in total mass than the huge footprint of the Baby Boomers. With those diminutive numbers it could not compete quantitatively at any level, whether in consumption, cultural participation, contribution to GDP, or business and political leadership. The live birth peak of the Baby Boom generation in 1957 to the trough of the X Generation in 1973 represented a 25 percent free fall.

There are stages in our lives when different things are expected of us, and understanding what is expected of us is very important. When we are born, we are totally reliant on others. We eat a lot and produce nothing. If we were left alone, we would probably die. We gradually become more and more self-reliant as we age. In theory, at least, when we are in our 20s we begin to make our own way. We can provide for ourselves. What we eat is on par with what we produce. As we age through our 30s, we begin to produce more than we eat so we provide for others who are producing less than they eat. As we age through our 40s, the dependence of others, both young and old, on our ability to produce a lot more than we eat becomes very great and peaks at age 50, when we are at the height of our productivity. Between 50 and 60 our production begins to diminish as does the reliance of others on our ability to provide. Between 60 and 80 we tend to be self-reliant, meeting our own needs. After about age 80 the total dependence starts all over again. We can no longer effectively produce, but we still eat and require care. This principle of reliance and provision can be found in families, cultures, and countries throughout the world. It is a very old principle that dates back to early man. It is a natural balance. It is so powerful that it drives economies and provides health to nations.

So how does Generation X fit in with this principle? By birth numbers Generation X had about 9 million fewer people in its ranks than the Baby Boomer Generation it followed and about 10 million fewer people than Generation Y right behind it. Generation X is taking over the role of the nation’s primary provider and by birth numbers cannot possibly succeed because they don’t have the critical mass. And as most first-generation immigrants do not generally became high-wage earners, it is unclear as to how much the immigrant population will be able to help Gen X carry what is a very large load.

As you will see in Chapters 19 and 20, Gen X was not able to help maintain the shared-risk insurance model and seemed unable to afford the housing that started coming online as the Boomers started retiring. Will federal, state, and local governments be able to generate tax revenues equivalent to those garnered from the Baby Boomers during their peak earnings years? All indications suggest that the answer might be no, but without the additional Gen X immigrant population, the answer would be a resounding “no way,” and America would likely be facing a financial catastrophe that would cripple the country for the next twenty-five years, if not longer.