31

Latin American Flavors and Down Under

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Population: 641 million (8.6 percent of world total)

Projected 2050 population: 784 million (22.3 percent growth)

Number of Countries: Thirty-three, plus fifteen dependencies

Largest Population: Brazil (210 million)

Smallest Population: Falkland Islands (2,915)

Largest Economy: Brazil (#9 by GDP)

Smallest Economy: Falkland Islands (#192 by GDP)¹

Landmass: 7.8 million square miles

Density: 82 people per square mile

Growth Rate: 1.05 percent

Projected 2050 Annual Rate of Growth: 0.26 percent

Median Age: 29.6

Projected 2050 Median Age: 41

On the whole Latin America and the Caribbean experienced extensive economic growth in the 1990s and the first decade of this century that lifted millions of people out of poverty and swelled the ranks of its middle class. In fact, the World Bank determined that between 2002 and 2012 10 million people were joining the ranks of the middle class per year, and that the middle class was on the verge of becoming the region’s majority economic population group. Unfortunately, growth has stalled in many of the region’s countries, especially those highly dependent upon commodity exports, and some countries are projected to face continued economic stagnation in the years ahead. Brazil, Venezuela, and Ecuador have suffered the most during the region’s recent downturn, and while Brazil is expected to see modest recovery, the economies of both Ecuador and Venezuela are projected to remain stalled, at best. According to the IMF, among the bright spots for future five-year economic growth in the region will be most of Central America, Mexico, Colombia, Bolivia, Peru, and Chile.

In looking at the demographics of the region as a whole or by individual country, I find myself loathe to make any pronouncements. The countries in many ways have demographic profiles distinctly different from each other, with some having high rates of growth and others slowing, and with some populations being relatively young and others aging quickly. The region in general has had a long history of economic and political turmoil, and the region’s ascent toward developed world status has been especially fast.

For all those reasons I am going to withhold comment other than to note that I would be most concerned about the challenges facing those countries projected to experience especially fast—and old—aging. In particular, Chile, which is expected to see its median age rise 12.3 years to 47 by 2050; Cuba, a 10.3-year rise to age 52; and Brazil, a 13.3-year rise to 45.

OCEANIA

Population: 39.9 million (0.5 percent of world total)

Projected 2050 population: 56.6 million (42.7 percent increase)

Number of Countries: Fourteen countries and nine dependencies

Largest Population: Australia (24.3 million)

Smallest Population: Tokelau (1,276)

Largest Economy: Australia (#13 by GDP)

Smallest Economy: Tuvalu (#194 by GDP)²

Landmass: 3.3 million square miles

Density: 12 people per square mile

Growth Rate: 1.45 percent

Projected 2050 Annual Rate of Growth: 0.79 percent

Median Age: 33

Projected 2050 Median Age: 37

I don’t quite know what to say here. I mean, I don’t count Kangaroos. . . .

Well, I didn’t, but after I wrote that I got curious and Googled it. Thus, I can report that there are an estimated 50 million to 60 million kangaroos in Australia, which gives them, by far, a larger population than that of Oceania’s humans.

My quick, two-cent demographic assessment of the world’s smallest region by population is as follows: overall, fairly healthy-looking profile, especially when measured against the rest of the developed world. Healthy growth in population heading toward 2050. Median age seems to be getting a bit up in years but certainly not at great speed. As with much of the world, population growth is slowing, but Oceania’s seems to be a slow deceleration that will hardly cause a demographic ripple on any policy-making or business decisions.

There certainly doesn’t appear to be any downside, but the projected population increase could definitely serve up some potential upside. The question is whether that would be region wide or isolated to a country or two.

And I’ll leave that for you to figure out, mate!