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Economic Dynamo—North America

NORTH AMERICA¹

Population: 360.5 million (4.9 percent of world total)

Projected 2050 Population: 433.1 million (20.1 percent increase)

Number of Countries: Two, plus three “dependencies”² (Bermuda, Greenland, Saint Pierre/Miquelon)

Largest Population: United States (322 million)

Smallest Population: Saint Pierre and Miquelon (6,300)

Largest Economy: United States (#1 GDP)

Smallest Economy: Saint Pierre and Miquelon (#191 GDP)³

Landmass: 7.2 million square miles

Density: 50 people per square mile

Growth Rate: 0.98 percent

Projected 2050 Annual Rate of Growth: 0.38 percent

Median Age: 38.4

Projected 2050 Median Age: 42

Despite having less than 5 percent of the world’s population, North America is an economic powerhouse unmatched by any other region, barring Europe. Sure, Asia has been playing a good game of catch-up, and China’s economy is larger than that of the United States when considered under the purchasing parity GDP measure, but Asia has needed an oversized cheap labor force to achieve its economic gains. Going forward, Asia’s population is rapidly aging and its labor costs quickly rising.

North America’s population is also aging, but not nearly as rapidly as that of Asia or Europe. And for the most part, North American countries already have a fairly strong social assistance network infrastructure in place to help it address this challenge. Furthermore, its countries will undoubtedly look to continued immigration, as well as technological innovation, to help them maintain economic success.

As we are already familiar with U.S. demographics, let’s look at the region’s other country for further consideration.

CANADA

Population: 36.3 million (0.49 percent of world total)

Landmass: 3.5 million square miles

Density: 10 people per square mile

Growth Rate: 0.96 percent

Projected 2050 Annual Rate of Growth: 0.36 percent

Median Age: 40.8

Projected 2050 Median Age: 46

2015 Annual GDP Growth: 1.2 percent

Projected 2020 Annual GDP Growth: 2 percent⁴

GDP Rank:⁵ 10th

While some Americans like to think of Canada as a “Mini-Me,” such a concept is considered highly insulting to the vast majority of Canadians . . . even though the vast majority live within 100 miles of the U.S. border. The 36 million Canadians roughly equal the population of California, and while America considers itself a “melting pot,” Canada, with more than ten distinct ethnic groups with populations greater than 1 million (and another twenty-four with populations exceeding 100,000), is one of the most culturally and ethnically diverse countries in the world.

Both Canada and America had a similar Baby Boom, but due to declining fertility, Canada did not experience a Gen Y birth boom, and the combined native-born populations of its Gen X and Y populations exceeded the population of the Baby Boomers and Silent Generation by only a bit more than 1 million. And with that factoid the first thought that should be popping into your head is?

You got it! Canada is older than the United States.

But not by all that much, with Canada’s median age of 40.8 being only a couple of years greater than the U.S. median age of 38. This is likely due to immigration, which has been bringing in about 250,000 new residents per year,⁶ the majority of whom have been between the ages of 15 and 34. Absent this healthy inflow of immigrants, Canada’s population would be more than 6 million smaller and its population would be in a relative steep decline.

As with the world’s other older countries, Canada’s aging population, with an expected 2050 median age of 46, is going to present challenges going forward, especially with regard to healthcare, social services, and retirement-related gaps in the labor market. While these challenges will be alleviated to some extent by the country’s strong immigration policy, policy makers are still sounding the alarm and federal and provincial governments are scrambling to come up with fixes.