26

It’s a Mighty Big World Out There

WE HAVE SPENT the previous twenty-five chapters picking apart the roughly 320 million people who call America home, but guess what? It’s a mighty big world out there demographically speaking, with roughly 7 billion (and rising) more people we could examine to see what kind of impact they might have on the world of supply and demand. Space in this book doesn’t allow for a detailed examination of the rest of the world (ROW), but I think we can touch upon the demographics of various regions and countries enough to spark your interest and give you some things to ponder.

I think you’ll find some of this information fascinating and trust that your mind will be spinning while I provide population facts and numbers. And perhaps, as a budding demographer, you’ll be able to come up with your own theories about what these numbers might mean and portend for supply and demand, prior to, and/or absent, commentary from me.

With the exception of a few countries that roughly mirror our generational structure, there is no way that I can really parse down the various country and regional demographics on a generational basis, but I can break down the demographics in other ways.¹ I should also note that numerous different organizations count the world’s people, so when throwing out population figures I’ll try to tell you who has done the counting.

So, without further ado, let’s consider the world as a whole before distilling the numbers down at the regional and country level. Of the 7.4 (give-or-take-quite-a-few-million) billion people in the world:²

50.4 percent are female/49.6 percent male

26 percent are under the age of 14

16.3 percent are between the ages of 15 and 24

49.5 percent are between the ages of 25 and 64

8.2 percent are 65 and older

Just over 52 percent of the world’s population lives in urban areas

Almost 60 percent of the world’s population lives in Asia

The world’s median age is a month or two shy of 30

By 2050 the world’s median age is expected to be 36

244 million people do not live in the country of their birth (a 41 percent increase from the 2000 world migrant population percentage)

Roughly 84 percent of the world’s population over the age of 15 is considered literate³

Almost 2.2 billion (31 percent) are Christian

Almost 1.6 billion (23 percent) are Muslim

Just over 1.1 billion (16 percent) are considered without religious affiliation

1 billion (15 percent) are Hindus

487 million (7 percent) are Buddhists

405 million (6 percent) are “Folk” religionist (faiths associated with particular groups, tribes, or ethnicities)

58 million (1 percent) are any number of other religions, such as Taoism, Jainism, Shintoism, Wicca, Baha’i, etc.

13.8 million (0.2 percent) are Jewish, of whom four-fifths are equally distributed between Israel and the United States.

The people of the world are dispersed among about⁴ 195 countries located in six United Nations–recognized regions, with Asia having the largest landmass and by far both the largest population by number and greatest population density. Oceania, which consists of Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and dozens of Southeast Pacific Island chains, has the smallest landmass, population by number, and population density.

The world’s population has essentially doubled since 1970, but because of declining growth rates it is estimated that it would take over 200 years to double again. Current United Nations’ projections estimate that the world’s population will be at about 8.1 billion by 2025, 8.8 billion by 2035, and 9.7 billion by 2050. As of 2016 the world population growth rate was at 1.13 percent, a figure that is expected to drop below 1 percent by 2025, and down to at least 0.57 percent by 2050. While Asia has been the primary driver of world population growth for the past fifty years, its growth rate has fallen below 1 percent, and Africa, with a current growth rate of more than 2.5 percent, is expected to be the primary driver of world population going forward.

People are living longer and the world is getting older; however, there can be wide variations depending upon region and country. In 1955 the world’s median age was only 23, but it has risen to almost 30 today and is expected to reach almost 36 by 2050 . . . at which point I’ll be so old it won’t matter (but wouldn’t you still like to see me playing Led Zeppelin air guitar on whatever YouTube equivalent has then become the latest noteworthy video platform?).

With all you have learned about demographics in the preceding chapters, what might you say about this rise in median age? This is not a trick question, and there are dozens of pertinent observations and conclusions that can be drawn from it.

One of the first things that comes to my mind is that aging populations represent both challenges and opportunities. The second thing that comes to my mind is that younger populations (though perhaps not too young) offer more opportunities than do older ones. Thus, I believe that Japan’s projected 2050 median age of 53⁵ presents far more challenges than opportunities, while Botswana’s 2050 projected median age of 34 presents more opportunities than challenges. And then you’ve got Niger, one of the poorest countries in the world, with a current median age below 15 and a 2050 projected median age of 18. I question whether an already poor country with that many disaffected youth presents much opportunity, and I don’t see how its exceptionally youthful and slow aging demographics can help pull it out of poverty in the near term.

In short, while there’s not a distinct correlation between the median age of a country’s population and its economic success, I believe that countries with younger and more balanced median ages tend to have faster-growing economies than countries that are exceptionally old or young.⁶ Furthermore, I believe that faster-aging countries face more potential challenges than do slower ones because policy makers and businesses have less relative time to address and respond to ensuing aging-related change.

And with that, let me add a few economic numbers to the mix. First off, the world’s ten largest economies are dispersed among Europe, Asia, North America, and South America; however, the 2015 GDP of North America (United States and Canada) is almost as big as that of the GDPs of the eight—China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, India, Brazil, and Italy—other top countries combined.⁷

Interestingly, many of the fastest-growing economies in the world,⁸ as of 2015, were located in Asia and Africa. Almost all the Asian countries and close to two dozen African countries were experiencing GDP growth in excess of 3 percent, while North America, most of Europe, and a good portion of South America’s countries were experiencing GDP growth below 3 percent, with several countries, such as Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, experiencing negative growth. Going forward to 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting continued strong growth in all of Asia, and expanding growth in African countries.

So, is there a correlation between the economic growth, or lack thereof, and a country’s population growth?

Many economists would say yes, a few would say no, and some might point out that population growth can be a double-edged sword. That is, either a positive factor or an obstacle in economic development depending upon numerous other variables. For just one simple example, while high rates of population growth in the last century led to high rates of increase in total product and per capita product in Europe, rapid population growth in many underdeveloped countries led to an overuse of resources, which stymied economic development.⁹

And I’ll leave you with that thought while we take a cursory look at some specific regions and a few select countries.