29
More Than Half the World—Asia
ASIA
Population: 4.43 billion (59.7 percent of world total)
Projected 2050 Population: 5.26 billion (18.7 percent increase)
Number of Countries: Forty-eight countries and three dependencies
Largest Population: China (1.4 billion)
Smallest Population: Maldives (369,812)
Largest Economy: China (#2 by GDP)
Smallest Economy: Bhutan (#162 by GDP)
Landmass: 12 million square miles
Density: 370 people per square mile
Growth Rate: 0.98 percent
Projected 2050 Annual Rate of Growth: 0.19 percent
Median Age: 30.7
Projected 2050 Median Age: 40
With almost 60 percent of the world’s population, forty-eight different and very distinct countries, and varied demographic profiles that run the gamut, this chapter warrants its own book. Asia, as delineated by the U.N., is a monster. Little doubt that the demographics of these fifty-one countries and dependencies is as fascinating as the hundreds (or is it thousands?) of ethnic groups who live in the broad stretch of lands that range from the western edge of Turkey to the Japanese-owned Marcus Island. But for the purposes of this book, let’s just look at China and India. And for the bottom line, China is facing a downside sinkhole while India is looking at an upside tsunami.
Those who’ve heard me speak, read my blog, or read my first book know that I’ve got an issue with China. It’s been the economic miracle of the past thirty years, but I believe that its one-child policy is going to derail the miracle like a bullet train running out of track. And bear with me here, because I always need a lot of air time when discussing China. But that should figure, as by demographic standards it’s the biggest country in the world.
China has proved, in a way, that you can get a lot done economically if you don’t have to be concerned about kids. It is called a demographic dividend. It is short-termed and incredibly shortsighted, but it is nonetheless a definite dividend resulting from cutting fertility by 75 percent. China is like a DINK (dual income, no kids) couple on mega steroids. A couple without children can enjoy dual incomes, freedom to travel, opportunity to amass wealth, and the luxury of discretionary time. In the last thirty-six years China’s one-child policy has been credited with “preventing” 450 million live births. This is roughly the combined equivalent population of the United States and Mexico. Short term, China’s economy has benefited accordingly. The country did not have to house, feed, care for, or educate the missing kids. It freed up the parents to spend more time working. For the long term, though, China has decimated its future workforce, tax base, consumer base, and leadership. Furthermore, in twenty years China will have a half billion elderly people who can no longer work. China has no formal social security network and no way of caring for or feeding what is going to be a record-breaking immense elderly population.
CHINA
Population: 1.38 billion (18.6 percent of world total)
Projected 2050 Population: 1.35 billion (2.2 percent decline)
Landmass: 3.6 million square miles
Density: 381 people per square mile
Growth Rate: 0.46 percent
Projected 2050 Annual Rate of Growth: -0.39 percent
Median Age: 37.3
Projected 2050 Median Age: 50
2015 Annual GDP Growth: 6.9 percent
Projected 2020 Annual GDP Growth: 6 percent
GDP Rank: 2nd
A couple of years ago I saw the headline, “China Eases One-Child Policy; Concession Comes as Labor Shortage Looms.” I read it several times, thinking I had misread it. Maybe it was a misprint? Did anyone in China really think that a looming labor shortage would be remedied by a sudden increase in fertility? China’s labor issues were acute at that moment now.
It was the equivalent of saying, “We were all starving, so we planted corn.”
How’s that going to work out? Think the corn is going to grow fast enough to feed the starving?
The worst thing that China could do right now is start having more children. China has a hole in its population that is thirty-six long years in the making and represents a half-billion missing people. When it comes time for this diminutive cohort with missing members to pay the taxes, support the elderly, feed the young, and do all the heavy lifting, they won’t be able to because they don’t have the critical mass. Having more children now simply means that there will be more kids to starve later. The damage is done and it cannot be remedied!
Another issue that needs to be considered with regard to this thirty-six-year-old1 “Missing” generation is that it is top-heavy with males. According to the Chinese media, there are about 30 million young Chinese men of marrying age that cannot find wives. This came about because under the one-child policy males were significantly favored by Chinese parents because they were more likely to care for the parents in their old age according to Chinese tradition. Having a girl baby was bad luck because she was likely to eventually marry and end up caring for her husband’s parents.
So, ultimately, this means China’s labor force includes about 30 million inherently unhappy workers. That can’t be good for productivity!
Anyhow, China’s economy is still chugging along, though the clickety-clack sound from its wheels is no longer rhythmically smooth and the ride is feeling uncharacteristically bumpy. The economic locomotive “that could” will be sustained for quite some time longer with the assistance of its own fast-growing consumer base and rise of a middle class. At some point though, due to demographics, the train is going to jump the rails.
In the meantime, China’s status as the world’s most populous country will likely be overtaken by India, which is expected to benefit from both a big increase in its own labor force and from China’s rising labor costs. In fact, because of these factors, many economists believe that India will also overtake China economically by 2050. I may not be an economist, but I’d have to say that the demographics seem to support such a supposition.
INDIA
Population: 1.32 billion (17.8 percent of world total)
Projected 2050 Population: 1.70 billion (28.8 percent growth)
Landmass: 1.1 million square miles
Density: 1,156 people per square mile
Growth Rate: 1.2 percent
Projected 2050 Annual Rate of Growth: 0.38 percent
Projected 2050 Median Age: 37
2015 Annual GDP Growth: 7.3 percent
Projected 2020 Annual GDP Growth: 7.7 percent
GDP Rank: 7th