Business Exposed162
changing consumer preferences, Icelandic volcanos erupting,
the macro economy, etc.: nobody can discern with any certainty
what lies ahead of us.
I’d like to extend Don’s analogy of driving in heavy fog. Because
we’re likely not alone on this road. We have competitors. And
what do most of us do when we’re sharing the road with other
users in heavy fog? We concentrate on the lights of the car ahead
of us, because it gives us some guidance, and we can rely a bit on
the faith of the fella in front of us.
But, although it may make us feel more secure, is that really
such a good idea? It’s only human I guess, but it sometimes also
seduces us to drive faster than we otherwise would have done,
just to keep up with the advancing lights. And, if the fog is
heavy enough, it seduces us to drive closer to the guy than we
may deem wise if we’d thought about it. Of course, a multiple
collision in the mist is quite common; we’re following the car
in front of us, but that doesn’t mean that we can brake in time
if he goes off a cliff, smashes into a tree, or
another car on the road.
That’s often how it goes in business as
well. Competition is a race, but it’s also a
race in the mist. Often, everybody ends up
following the quickest competitor, bidding
for 3G licenses, entering China, merging with IT companies, etc.
But sometimes, everybody ends up with a big bump on the head.
However, of course, if you slow down, you might lose the race.
So, what do you do, confronted with fast-moving competition?
Well, do what you do when you’re driving in the mist. First of all,
keep a healthy distance between you and the car in front of you.
If he crashes, you still want to have time to stop. Second, if that
car is driving faster than you’re comfortable with, slow down. He
may get there faster than you, but he may also not get there at
all. And sometimes that’s just not worth the risk.
Finally, don’t use binoculars. They will blind you. Rigidly
executing a detailed long-term strategy won’t allow you to see
‘‘
Competition is a
race, but it’s also a
race in the mist.
’’