Chapter 17
The internal rate of return

A whimsical “nugget”

If net present value (NPV) is inversely proportional to the discounting rate, then there must exist a discounting rate that makes NPV equal to zero.

To apply this concept to capital expenditure, simply replace “yield to maturity” by “IRR”, as the two terms mean the same thing. It is just that one is applied to financial securities (yield to maturity) and the other to capital expenditure (IRR).

Section 17.1 How is internal rate of return determined?

To calculate IRR, make r the unknown and simply use the NPV formula again. The rate r is determined as follows:

numbered Display Equation

To use the same example from Section 16.4:

numbered Display Equation

In other words, an investment’s internal rate of return is the rate at which its market value is equal to the present value of the investment’s future cash flows.

It is possible to use trial-and-error to determine IRR. This will result in an interest rate that gives a negative net present value and another that gives a positive net present value. These negative and positive values constitute a range of values which can be narrowed until the yield to maturity is found; in this case it is about 28.6% (see figure in Section 16.4).

Obviously, this type of calculation is time-consuming. It is much easier to just use a calculator or spreadsheet program with a function to determine the yield to maturity.

Section 17.2 Internal rate of return as an investment criterion

The internal rate of return is frequently used in financial markets because it immediately tells the investor the return to be expected for a given level of risk. The investor can then compare this expected return to his required return rate, thereby simplifying the investment decision.

The decision-making rule is very simple: if an investment’s internal rate of return is higher than the investor’s required return, he will make the investment or buy the security. Otherwise, he will abandon the investment or sell the security.

In our example, since the internal rate of return (28.6%) is higher than the return demanded by the investor (20%), he should make the investment. If the market value of the same investment were 3 (and not 2), the internal rate of return would be 10.4%, and he should not invest.

Hence, at fair value, the internal rate of return is identical to the market return. In other words, net present value is nil (this will be developed further in Chapter 26).

Section 17.3 The limits of the internal rate of return

With this new investment-decision-making criterion, it is now necessary to consider how IRR can be used vis-à-vis net present value. It is also important to investigate whether or not these two criteria could somehow produce contradictory conclusions.

If it is a simple matter of whether or not to buy into a given investment, or whether or not to invest in a project, then the two criteria produce exactly the same result, as shown in the example.

If the cash flow schedule is the same, then calculating the NPV by choosing the discounting rate and calculating the internal rate of return (and comparing it with the discounting rate) are two sides of the same mathematical coin.

The issue is, however, a bit more complex when it comes to choosing between several securities or projects, which is usually the case. Comparing several streams of cash flows (securities) should make it possible to choose between them.

1. The reinvestment rate and the modified IRR (MIRR)

Consider two investments A and B, with the following cash flows:

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Investment A 6 0.5
Investment B 2 3 0 0 2.1 0 5.1

At a 5% discount rate, the present value of investment A is 6.17 and that of investment B is 9.90. If investment A’s market value is 5, its net present value is 1.17. If investment B’s market value is 7.5, its net present value is 2.40.

Now calculate the IRR. It is 27.8% for investment A and 12.7% for investment B. Or, to sum up:

NPV at 5% IRR%
Investment A 1.17 27.8
Investment B 2.40 12.7

Investment A delivers a rate of return that is much higher than the required return (27.8% vs. 5%) during a short period of time. Investment B’s rate of return is much lower (12.7% vs. 27.8%), but is still higher than the 5% required return demanded and is delivered over a far longer period (seven years vs. two). Our NPV and internal rate of return models are telling us two different things. So, should we buy investment A or investment B?

At first glance, investment B would appear to be the more attractive of the two. Its NPV is higher and it creates the most value: 2.40 vs. 1.17.

However, some might say that investment A is more attractive, as cash flows are received earlier than with investment B and therefore can be reinvested sooner in high-return projects. While that is theoretically possible, it is the strong (and optimistic) form of the theory because competition among investors and the mechanisms of arbitrage tend to move net present values towards zero. Net present values moving towards zero means that exceptional rates of return converge towards the required rate of return, thereby eliminating the possibility of long-lasting high-return projects.

Given the convergence of the exceptional rates towards required rates of return, it is more reasonable to suppose that cash flows from investment A will be reinvested at the required rate of return of 5%. The exceptional rate of 27.8% is unlikely to be recurrent.

And this is exactly what happens if we adopt the NPV decision rule. The NPV in fact assumes that the reinvestment of interim cash flows is made at the required rate of return. If we apply the same equation to the IRR, then we observe that the reinvestment rate is simply the IRR again. However, in equilibrium, it is unreasonable to think that the company can continue to invest at the same rate of the (sometimes) exceptional IRR of a specific project. Instead, it is much more reasonable to assume that, at best, the company can invest at the required rate of return.

However, a solution to the reinvestment rate problem of IRR is the modified IRR (MIRR).

Determining the MIRR requires two stages:

  1. Calculate forward until the end of the project to determine the terminal value of the project by compounding all intermediate cash flows at the required rate of return.
  2. Find the internal rate of return that equates the terminal value with the initial outlay.

So, by capitalising cash flow from investments A and B at the required rate of return (5%) up to period 7, we obtain from investment A in period 7: 6 × 1.0056 + 0.5 × 1.055, or 8.68. From investment B we obtain 2 × 1.056 + 3 × 1.055 + 2.1 × 1.052 + 5.1, or 13.9. The internal rate of return is 8.20% for investment A and 9.24% for investment B.

We have thus reconciled the NPV and internal rate of return models.

Some might say that it is not consistent to expect investment A to create more value than investment B, as only 5 has been invested in A vs. 7.5 for B. Even if we could buy an additional “half-share” of A, in order to equalise the purchase price, the NPV of our new investment in A would only be 1.17 × 1.5 = 1.76, which would still be less than investment B’s NPV of 2.40. For the reasons discussed above, we are unlikely to find another investment with a return identical to that of investment A.

Instead, we should assume that the 2.5 in additional investment would produce the required rate of return (5%) for seven years. In this case, NPV would remain, by definition, at 1.17, whereas the internal rate of return of this investment would fall to 11%. NPV and the internal rate of return would once again lead us to conclude that investment B is the more attractive investment.

2. Multiple or no IRR

Consider the following investments:

Year 0 1 2
Project A  4 −7 4
Project B −1 7.2 −7.2
image

There are two annual rates of return! Which one should we choose? At 10%, the NPV of this investment is 0.40. So it is not worth pursuing, even though its internal rate of return is higher than the required rate of return.

Project A has no IRR. Thus, we have no benchmark for deciding if it is a good investment or not. Although the NPV remains positive for all the discount rates, it remains only slightly positive and the company may decide not to do it.

Project B has two IRRs, and we do not know which is the right one. There is no good reason to use one over the other. Investments with “unconventional” cash flow sequences are rare, but they can happen. Consider a firm that is cutting timber in a forest. The timber is cut, sold and the firm gets an immediate profit. But, when harvesting is complete, the firm may be forced to replant the forest at considerable expense.

In conclusion, it is not because an investment project has a higher IRR than another that it should be preferred.

The IRR criterion does not allow for the ranking of different investment opportunities. It only allows us to determine whether one project yields at least the return required by investors. When the IRR does not allow us to judge whether an investment project should be undertaken or not (e.g. no IRR or several IRRs), the NPV should be analysed.

Section 17.4 Some more financial mathematics: interest rate and 
yield to maturity

1. Nominal rate of return and yield to maturity

Having considered the yield to maturity, it is now important to examine interest rates; for example, on a loan that you wish to take out. Where does the interest rate fit in this discussion?

Consider someone who wants to lend you €1000 today at 10% for five years. This 10% means 10% per year and constitutes the nominal rate of return of your loan. This rate will be the basis for calculating interest, proportional to the time elapsed and the amount borrowed. Assume that you will pay interest annually.

The first problem is how and when will you pay off the loan?

Repayment terms constitute the method of amortisation of the loan. Take the following example:

(a)Bullet repayment

The entire loan is paid back at maturity.

The cash flow table would look like this:

Period Principal still due Interest Amortisation of principal Annuity
1 1000 100    0  100
2 1000 100    0  100
3 1000 100    0  100
4 1000 100    0  100
5 1000 100 1000 1100

Total debt service is the annual sum of interest and principal to be paid back. This is also called debt servicing at each due date.

(b)Constant amortisation

Each year, the borrower pays off a constant proportion of the principal, corresponding to 1/n, where n is the initial maturity of the loan.

The cash flow table would look like this:

Period Principal still due Interest Amortisation of principal Annuity
1 1000 100 200 300
2  800  80 200 280
3  600  60 200 260
4  400  40 200 240
5  200  20 200 220

(c)Equal instalments

The borrower may want to allocate a fixed sum to the service of debt (capital repayment and interests).

Based on the discounting method described previously, consider a constant annuity A, such that the sum of the five discounted annuities is equal to the present value of the principal, or €1000:

numbered Display Equation

This means that the NPV of the 10% loan is nil; in other words, the 10% nominal rate of interest is also the internal rate of return of the loan.

Using the formula from Section 16.5, paragraph 1, the previous formula can be expressed as follows:

numbered Display Equation

A = €263.80. Hence, the following repayment schedule:

Period Principal still due Interest Amortisation of principal Annuity
1 1000 100 163.80 263.80
2 836.20 83.62 180.18 263.80
3 656.02 65.60 198.20 263.80
4 457.82 45.78 218.02 263.80
5 239.80 23.98 239.80 263.80

In this case, the interest for each period is indeed equivalent to 10% of the remaining principal (i.e. the nominal rate of return) and the loan is fully paid off in the fifth year. Internal rate of return and nominal rate of interest are identical, as calculation is on an annual basis and the repayment of principal coincides with the payment of interest.

Regardless of which side of the loan you are on, both work the same way. We start with invested (or borrowed) capital, which produces income (or incurs interest costs) at the end of each period. Eventually, the loan is then either paid back (leading to a decline in future revenues or in interest to be paid) or held on to, thus producing a constant flow of income (or a constant cost of interest).

(d)Interest and principal both paid when the loan matures

In this case, the borrower pays nothing until the loan matures. The sum that the borrower will have to pay at maturity is none other than the future value of the sum borrowed, capitalised at the interest rate of the loan:

numbered Display Equation

This is how the repayment schedule would look:

Period Principal and interest still due Amortisation of principal Interest payments Annuity
1 1100    0 0 0
2 1210    0 0 0
3 1331    0 0 0
4 1464.1    0 0 0
5  1610.51 1000 610.51 1610.51

This is a zero-coupon loan.

2. Effective annual rate, nominal rates and proportional rates

This section will demonstrate that discounting has a much wider scope than might have appeared to be the case in the simple financial mathematics presented previously.

(a)The concept of effective annual rate

What happens when interest is paid not once but several times per year?

Suppose that somebody lends you money at 10% but says (somewhere in the fine print at the bottom of the page) that interest will have to be paid on a half-yearly basis. For example, suppose you borrowed €100 on 1 January and then had to pay €5 in interest on 1 July and €5 on 1 January of the following year, as well as the €100 in principal at the same date.

This is not the same as borrowing €100 and repaying €110 one year later. The nominal amount of interest may be the same (5 + 5 = 10), but the repayment schedule is not. In the first case, you will have to pay €5 on 1 July (just before leaving on summer holiday), which you could have kept until the following 1 January if using the second case. In the first case you pay €5, instead of investing it for six months as you could have done in the second case.

As a result, the loan in the first case costs more than a loan at 10% with interest due annually. Its effective rate is not 10%, since interest is not being paid on the benchmark annual terms.

To avoid comparing apples and oranges, a financial officer must take into account the effective date of disbursement. We know that one euro today is not the same as one euro tomorrow. Obviously, the financial officer wants to postpone expenditure and accelerate receipts, thereby having the money work for him. So, naturally, the repayment schedule matters when calculating the rate.

Which is the best approach to take? If the interest rate is 10%, with interest payable every six months, then the interest rate is 5% for six months. We then have to calculate an effective annual rate (and not for six months), which is our point of reference and our constant concern.

Two rates referring to two different maturities are said to be equivalent if the future value of the same amount at the same date is the same with the two rates.

In our example, the lender receives €5 on 1 July which, compounded over six months, becomes 5 + (10% × 5) / 2 = €5.25 on the following 1 January, the date on which he receives the second €5 interest payment. So, over one year, he will have received €10.25 in interest on a €100 investment.

Therefore, the effective annual rate is 10.25%. This is the real cost of the loan, since the return for the lender is equal to the cost for the borrower.

If the apparent rate (or nominal rate) (ra) is to be paid n times per year, then the effective annual rate (t) is obtained by compounding this nominal rate n times numbered Display Equation, where n is the number of interest payments in the year and ra/n the proportional rate during one period, or t = (1 + ra/n)n − 1.

In our example:

numbered Display Equation

The effective interest rate is thus 10.25%, while the nominal rate is 10%.

It should be common sense that an investment at 10% paying interest every six months produces a higher return at year end than an investment paying interest annually. In the first case, interest is compounded after six months and thus produces interest on interest for the next six months. Obviously a loan on which interest is due every six months will cost more than one on which interest is charged annually.

The table below gives the returns produced by an investment (a loan) at 10% with varying instalment frequencies:

Interest compounding period Initial sum Sum after one year Effective annual 
rate (%)
Annual 100 110.000 10.000
Half-year 100 110.250 10.250
Quarterly 100 110.381 10.381
Monthly 100 110.471 10.471
Bimonthly 100 110.494 10.494
Weekly 100 110.506 10.506
Daily 100 110.516 10.516
Continuous1 100 110.517 10.517

The effective annual rate can be calculated on any timescale. For example, a financial officer might wish to use continuous rates. This might mean, for example, a 10% rate producing €100, paid out evenly throughout the year on principal of €1000. The financial officer will use the annual equivalent rate as his reference rate for this investment.

(b)The concept of proportional rate

In our example of a loan at 10%, we would say that the 5% rate over six months is ­proportional to the 10% rate over one year. More generally, two rates are proportional if they are in the same proportion to each other as the periods to which they apply.

10% per year is proportional to 5% per half-year or 2.5% per quarter, but 5% half-yearly is not equivalent to 10% annually. Effective annual rate and proportional rates are therefore two completely different concepts that should not be confused.

Proportional rates are of interest only when calculating the interest actually paid. In no way can they be evaluated with other proportional rates.

Proportional rates serve only to simplify calculations, but they hide the true cost of a loan. Only the effective annual rate (10.25%/year) gives the true cost, unlike the proportional rate (10%/year).

When the time span between two interest payment dates is less than one year, the proportional rate is lower than the effective annual rate (10% is less than 10.25%). When maturity is more than a year, the proportional rate overestimates the effective annual rate. This is rare, whereas the first case is quite frequent on money markets, where money is lent or borrowed for short periods of time.

As we will see, the bond markets can be misleading since they reason in terms of nominal rate of return: paper is sold above or below par value, the number of days used in calculating interest can vary, there could be original issue discounts, and so on. And, most importantly, on the secondary market, a bond’s present value depends on fluctuations in market interest rates.

In the rest of this book, unless otherwise specified, an interest rate or rate of return is assumed to be an effective annual rate.

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