CHAPTER 15
UNDERSTANDING DISASTERS AND MASS EMERGENCIES
From Earthquakes to Pandemics and Beyond

All my downtown is gone. My home is gone. My staff’s homes are gone. And we’ve got to find a way to get this to work and come to work every day and get this thing back on its feet.

Steve Hewitt, city administrator of Greensburg, Kansas

CHAPTER OVERVIEW

On May 4, 2007, the small town of Greensburg, Kansas, was hit by the equivalent of a weapon of mass destruction. A massive tornado touched down, racing 22 miles nonstop and staying on the ground 30 minutes. In its wake, some 95 percent of the town’s buildings were destroyed by wind damage and flying debris (which also caused a leak in a train tanker carrying ammonia). As the quote from City Administrator Steve Hewitt attests, the community was virtually destroyed. While destruction wrought by disasters such as tornados often resembles a major terrorist attack, the nature of the threats, as well as the means to mitigate and respond to them, can vary significantly. This chapter reviews major categories of human-made and natural disasters, identifying unique characteristics of each, as well as mitigation and response strategies.

CHAPTER LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After reading this chapter, you should be able to

1. Explain factors common to all disasters and mass emergencies.

2. Describe the limits of an “all-hazards” response.

3. Evaluate the potential severity of different types of disasters and mass emergencies.

4. Explain the unique challenges of responding to catastrophes such as pandemics and weather events.

5. Explain the general responsibilities of local, state, and federal officials for responding to different kinds of disasters.

WHAT IS A DISASTER?

In the wake of events like 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, and the Gulf oil spill, the question of what constitutes a disaster seems both obvious and superfluous. It is not. The question raises fundamental and enduring public policy issues. In 1998 a team of the world’s top researchers came together to debate the question—and couldn’t agree on the answer. In 2005 they assembled a second volume of What Is a Disaster? Again, there was no consensus, other than to acknowledge how the September 11 attacks had skewed public conceptions of disasters and responses to them.

Academic debate over the definition of “disaster” is interesting, but the more important concern here is how the definition influences government action. In the United States, wording of laws that assign agencies authorities and responsibilities (see Chapter 9) significantly influence what can be considered a disaster.

As noted in Chapter 1, the concept of disaster in America is not static—and there is no reason it should be. It makes sense that as the size and character of the U.S. population and infrastructure change, so do the dangers of most concern to the nation.

In addition, recognizing an event as a disaster or mass emergency is also a political act. As Chapter 1 noted, for example, the number of presidential emergency declarations has dramatically increased in recent decades to match evolving expectations of both politicians and the electorate.

The definition is particularly important given the U.S. emphasis on an all-hazards approach for disaster response. In other words, the U.S. strategy emphasizes creating a single integrated disaster system and then adapting it to the condition of a particular emergency. Indeed, what counts for a disaster or mass emergency in America today does display certain common elements regardless of specific type.

Politics will always play a part. Since political leaders must acknowledge that a disaster, crisis, or emergency exists in order to organize a response, and the response can attract all sorts of assistance, every disaster can have a political dimension that affects how it’s perceived and how the response is organized. As with other forms of government assistance, disaster relief is subject to political give and take. After Hurricane Camille in 1969, for example, the federal government pressed Mississippi to desegregate its public schools as a condition for disaster aid.

Infrastructure always has an impact on the character of the disaster. Medical infrastructure is a case in point. Throughout the United States, medical services of all kinds are striving for greater efficiencies and reduction of “excess” capacity. As a result, any disaster will require adjustments, modifications, or surges to adapt medical systems. It does not take much to strain the system. For example, a 2003 Rhode Island nightclub fire killed 100 people, left 200 others injured and completely overwhelmed the community’s emergency medical capacity.

Likewise, mental health issues can arise as a result of almost any kind of disaster or mass emergency. Mental health challenges can be caused by trauma or stress. Responders as well as disaster victims may require monitoring and treatment.

Social-cultural factors come into play. Mass media will always have a role. How they cover an event will affect public perceptions. The relationship between media and disasters, however, is complex and unpredictable. For example, disasters may be underreported, as in the 1964 Alaska earthquake, because they are remote or attention is distracted by other stories. At other times they may be hyped.

Online and social media increasingly affect how the public conceptualizes disasters. For example, according to a June 26, 2010, blog post on the Gulf oil spill, “When you Google ‘BP PR’ or ‘BP public relations,’ the top organic result is @BPGlobalPR, a parody account on Twitter with more than 175,000 followers. In contrast, BP’s official account, @BP America, has only 15,000 followers. The satirical @BPGlobalPR is dominating the online conversation … an object lesson in how social media can shape and control a company’s message during a crisis.”¹ (New media, which is fast and resilient, can also play an important role in response, such as the use of text and email alerts to citizens and information sharing.)

Economic disruption is a feature of any disaster response. Small-and medium-size businesses are often more at risk because they are less prepared and financially resilient. Not surprisingly, for example, businesses in heavily flood-damaged poor neighborhoods in New Orleans had a worse reopening rate after Hurricane Katrina than other local businesses.

Also, disasters usually have some sort of noteworthy environmental impact. This may take many forms, from release of containments into the air and water to disruptions to local ecology. In short, virtually every disaster is a hazardous material incident.

Adding to geosocial factors, from environmental concerns to political bickering (as described in Chapter 9), multiple government agencies from police and fire departments to FEMA will likely be called upon regardless of the type of crisis. Still, while the all-hazards approach provides a focus for effort and a baseline structure for organizing response, it also creates a challenge for the homeland security enterprise. “To say that an ‘in place’ system (for mitigation, preparedness, response or recovery) that works for one ‘disaster’ will also work for another,” wrote the editors of What Is a Disaster? “requires that one know about the comparability and ‘types’ of disasters.”² That is an important point, because disasters and mass emergencies faced across the United States are far from the same.

In 2004 the Department of Homeland Security established 15 disaster-planning scenarios intended to outline disasters the United States might reasonably expect to face. The scenarios were a baseline for developing standards and contingency plans (discussed in Chapter 5). Though the scenarios were never fully used as intended, they provide a starting point for understanding the kinds of disasters America must be ready to face. Discussed below are some natural and man-made disasters from the DHS scenarios (which include weapons of mass destruction, discussed in Chapter 14). Some events not included in the scenarios, including “common” disasters and also “black swan,” or outlying threats, are discussed below as well. Of crucial importance are factors that unite these disasters, as well as those that distinguish them.

EARTHQUAKES

Earthquakes result from shifts in tectonic plates that comprise the earth’s surface. The edges of the plates impact one another, creating intense geologic activity, including earthquakes, or violent fracturing of the earth’s crust. “Intraplate” fault lines inside a tectonic plate where fracturing can produce similar results. Seismic waves or vibrations that result can create intense shaking on the earth’s surface. The intensity of an earthquake is measured by the Richter scale. An earthquake measuring 2 on the Richter scale can usually be felt by people standing on the ground. Five is considered moderate. Earthquakes of 6 or more usually are considered severe and, depending on location, can cause significant damage and disruption. Major earthquakes are often followed by aftershocks, a smaller earthquake that comes after a larger one. While they may register less on the Richter scale, when they follow a major quake, aftershocks can inflict severe damage.

While earthquakes are usually considered a West Coast problem (particularly in California and Alaska), they in fact pose a moderate to high risk to the majority of U.S. states. For example, the New Madrid fault line is a zone of significant seismic activity crossing several midwestern and southern states. The results of a major earthquake, depending on intensity, could affect a particular locale or span several states. Imminent earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted.

Earthquakes are significant for the primary and secondary effects they produce. The initial concern is death and injury from structural collapse and flying debris (discussed in the Structural Collapse section). Secondary concerns can be wide ranging due to disruption of infrastructure, which can cause anything from hazardous material releases at chemical facilities to the loss of electrical power and disruption of transportation. Further physical threats may also appear, such as additional structural collapse of buildings or bridges or flooding from damaged levees or dams.

Initial responses will be concerned with physical injury, fire fighting, and hazardous material incident response. Ensuring public safety and restoring infrastructure will also be early priorities. Shelter, food, and water for displaced persons and communities will be needed where the flow of goods and services cannot be quickly restored.

Virtually every category of local emergency responder will be in demand. In addition, urban search and rescue teams, specially trained to deal with emergency response during structural collapse incidents, will be important. The National Guard is frequently called out for earthquake response missions. Federal support is contingent upon the severity of the incident. Disaster medical assistance teams are mobilized for larger incidents.

One example of earthquake disaster and response was the quake that struck southern California on January 17, 1994. Measuring 6.7 on the Richter scale, it centered on major urban areas across the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, and San Bernardino. The disaster killed 60, damaged approximately 40,000 buildings, and caused estimated damages totaling $44 billion.

HURRICANES

A hurricane is a particularly powerful weather event. Hurricanes result from low-pressure conditions occurring in tropical waters, which in turn produce rotating winds. Besides generating high winds and intense rains, hurricanes push the surface of the ocean in their path. The wall of water in front of a storm can be over 20 feet in height and hundreds of miles wide. This bulge of water can produce a “storm surge” when it reaches coastal lands, resulting in significant floods. Hurricanes can also spawn tornadoes (discussed below). Hurricanes can span 400 or more miles in diameter and last up to 12 days, though the average “life” of a storm is 9 days. The storms move along a path influenced by a number of factors, taking them in a direction that remains at sea or makes landfall. These paths are not entirely predictable and are known to shift significantly. The average speed of a hurricane is 15 miles per hour, though the wind speeds within the storm itself can range from 74 to more than 155 miles per hour. Storms are categorized on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind scale from 1 through 5. Each category represents a range of sustained wind speeds and the estimated damage they would cause.

Within the United States, Gulf Coast and Atlantic coastal regions are subject to hurricanes. Weather conditions that produce hurricanes generally occur during the hurricane “season” from June to November, with the peak from mid-August to late October. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is responsible for hurricane predictions and warnings.

The greatest danger from hurricanes occurs when they make landfall. Physical destruction may be caused by high winds, flying debris, tornadoes, or flooding from the storm surge or torrential rains. Structural damage and disruption of infrastructure are primary concerns. Deaths and injury result from flooding and structural collapse. Approximately 90 percent of people who die in hurricanes drown. Additional concerns are the health and safety of individuals who are evacuated, made homeless by the storms, or cannot obtain food, clean water, and medical assistance because of disruption to infrastructure. Damaged infrastructure may also cause release of hazardous materials and damage to levees and dams, causing further flooding.

Though the direction, intensity, and timing of storms can never be predicted with perfect accuracy, early warning is common for this kind of disaster (unlike, for example, earthquakes). Responses can be “front-loaded.” Initial response to hurricanes involves evacuating vulnerable populations before the storms and prepositioning response assets. Shelters for evacuees and victims after the storm are critical. Special consideration should be given to people with special needs, pets, and livestock. Search and rescue play an important part during and in the immediate wake of the storm. Since local responders may be evacuated or their response assets and infrastructure damaged by the hurricane, mutual assistance pacts are important to supplement them. Delivery of goods and services and restoration of infrastructure are also critical components of the response. Public safety, such as prevention of looting, may be an issue.

The U.S. Coast Guard plays a significant role in every hurricane response, performing tasks from search and rescue (SAR) to maritime hazardous material response. The Civil Air Patrol may also participate in SAR. Disaster medical assistance teams may be required. The National Guard is usually employed in hurricane response. A federal response will normally be organized for a hurricane in the area where it is predicted to make landfall.

The most powerful storm in recent memory was Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which reached category 5 and made landfall on the coast of Florida. Though Hurricane Katrina caused more damage (because it covered a larger area and caused flooding in New Orleans), Andrew was more intense. Winds at landfall registered as high as 198 miles per hour. The storm surge was almost 17 feet high. Andrew did over $26 billion in damage. In addition to communities and infrastructure, almost 70,000 acres of wetlands was damaged. Though the loss of life was not great, estimates of the number of people made homeless ranged up to 250,000. About 1.4 million lost electricity and access to clean water.

TORNADOES

While tornadoes can be formed by hurricanes, other conditions cause them as well. Tornado conditions can be predicted, but not actual storms. The National Weather Service issues tornado watches (a tornado is possible) and warnings (a tornado has been sighted). They are massive rotating funnel-shaped columns of air that extend from a thunderstorm formation. The columns are transparent, but as they accumulate dust and debris, they take on the shape of a dark spiraling cloud. Destruction from a tornado comes from the shearing force of rotating wind, which can exceed 300 miles per hour. Funnel clouds on the ground can reach one mile wide and make contact for up to 50 miles. Tornadoes have been recorded with forward motion up to 70 miles per hour; an average tornado speed is about 30 miles per hour. Storm fronts and hurricanes may spawn multiple tornadoes. The general size of a tornado does not indicate its severity. That is measured on the Fujita scale. Developed by examining the damage caused, it represents a subjective judgment. The scale starts with F0, a storm with rotating wind speeds of 40 to 72 miles per hour. Typical results of an F0 are “some damage to chimneys; breaks branches off trees; pushes over shallow-rooted trees; damages sign boards.” The highest ranking is an F6, with wind speeds of 319 to 379 miles per hour. Storms this intense cause “strong frame houses lifted off foundations and carried considerable distances to disintegrate; automobile sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters; trees debarked; steel reinforced concrete structures badly damaged.”

Although tornadoes can occur in any state, according to FEMA, they appear most frequently east of the Rocky Mountains during spring and summer months. Tornado “season” in southern states lasts from March to May and in northern states from late May to early July.

Destructive winds are the most significant threat. In addition, flying debris can cause significant damage. Tornadoes in the United States cause an average of 70 fatalities and 1,500 injuries each year. In addition, these storms can significantly damage buildings and infrastructure. Hale damage is also common, as are local power outages. Danger is greatest when tornadoes are part of a complex weather event, such as hurricanes, major thunderstorms, or floods.

Early warning is the single most important factor for limiting loss of life. Even a few minutes’ warning provide times for individuals to seek shelter, the most vital disaster response measure. In the wake of the storm, housing for displaced persons may be required.

Because of the potential for injuries and destruction, many kinds of first responders may be required. National Guard units may deploy. States may also use emergency management assistance compacts to obtain support from adjacent states. Depending on the level of destruction, states may request federal assistance. Federal response assets would be coordinated through FEMA regional headquarters. In particular, FEMA-managed urban search and rescue teams may be dispatched.

While the effects of tornadoes are often localized, they can impact a large geographical area covering a number of jurisdictions. In many parts of the United States, twisters are a familiar, annual menace. On May 21, 2011, a single tornado plowed through a 13-mile strip in Joplin, Missouri, killing over 150 people. Estimates of damage ranged up to $3 billion. Only a month before, tornadoes had swept through the same state, leaving enough damage to prompt a presidential disaster declaration.

TSUNAMIS

A tsunami is a series of massive ocean waves created by sudden displacement in the seafloor from an earthquake, landslide, or volcanic activity. The word tsunami is Japanese and means “harbor storm.” These waves are referred to as tidal waves in the United States (though this term is inaccurate, because they are not caused by ocean tides, but rather geological activity). Tsunamis or tidal waves move concentrically from the epicenter of an event, traveling at 450 to 600 miles per hour. Depending on the force generating the waves and the topology of the coastline, waves can range from 10 to over 100 feet in height. They arrive in series, with timing and number varying, at intervals from a few minutes up to an hour and a half. Destruction is caused both by the wave and receding waters as they flood back to the sea.

Any coastal region could experience a tsunami. To date, however, the most damaging events to strike the United States have occurred in California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Hawaii. According to FEMA, coastal areas of greatest risk are below 25 feet above sea level and within a mile of the coast. “Tsunamographs,” buoys on the oceanfloor, provide real-time alerts of tsunami activities. The NOAA provides warnings and watches, and the National Weather Service maintains tsunami warning centers on a 24-hour basis. Depending on the epicenter of the event, advance warning times range from minutes to several hours.

Damage inflicted by a tsunami is similar to that of a storm surge, including flooding and destruction of infrastructure. Likewise, hazardous material may be released from damaged infrastructure, such as the Japanese nuclear plant in 2011. Drowning is the most significant cause of loss of life.

Tsunamis are among the most predictable kinds of disasters. Unlike hurricanes, they follow a largely predictable path and the time of their arrival can be accurately estimated (although wave size may be less predictable in local areas). Rapid evacuation is key to limiting loss of life. In contrast with hurricane evacuation, tsunamis usually provide less warning. Evacuations have to be faster, but evacuees need only travel as far as higher ground (perhaps a mile or less). In the wake of a tsunami, restoration of infrastructure and sheltering the homeless are primary concerns. Unlike the effects of a hurricane, tsunami damage is normally limited to narrow regions along the coast.

All categories of local responders will likely assist in recovering from a tsunami. As with every maritime disaster, the U.S. Coast Guard will likely respond, assisting in SAR and hazardous material response, as well as other activities. The level of National Guard forces and federal response assets called upon will vary with the nature of the event.

In terms of loss of life, the most devastating tsunamis in the United States have occurred in Hawaii. On April 1, 1946, a tsunami generated by a subsea earthquake near the Alaskan Aleutian Islands struck Hawaii with seven waves over a period of 15 minutes. The tallest measured 55 feet. Drowning and other causes claimed 159 lives. Damage was estimated at $26 million.

FLOODS AND LEVEE BREAKS

A flood occurs when water inundates or overflows land that is normally dry. This definition does not include tsunamis and storm surges. Floods can result from many causes, including torrential rains and dam and levee breaks. They can occur suddenly or due to conditions built up over days, meaning advance warning is sometimes possible. Floods are categorized by how likely they are in a given time period (for example, 1:25, 1:50, or 1:100). “One in 25” means once in 25 years. A 50-year flood indicates an expectation that at least once every 50 years a flood will occur. Likewise, a 100-year flood means there is a 1 percent chance of a flood in any given year. Statistically, however, it is possible to have the associated level of flooding more than once in the time period. These categories are compiled through historical analysis to determine flood-prone areas and also reflect the severity of the threat.

Flooding is common across the United States. Inland flooding is most prevalent in California and Oregon, the Gulf States, the Northeast, and Indiana, Missouri, and Illinois. Some flooding is seasonal, but inland flooding can happen any time of year. The NOAA provides flood warnings and watches.

The actual deluge from a flooding event is the most common hazard, resulting in drownings. Most people who die in floods are victims of flash floods, which occur with little or no warning. The sweep of fast-moving water can also damage buildings and other infrastructure or displace materials that become hazardous. Flooding can release hazardous materials, such as overflowing a sewage treatment plant; organic contamination from floodwater can spread disease. On average in the United States, over 140 people are killed in floods, and these disasters inflict $6 billion in damage (though the level of damage and casualities can vary significantly from year to year).

Flood control and other mitigation measures before and during events may significantly affect the incident. Evacuations can be crucial, if early warning permits. Sheltering of displaced persons and search and rescue are frequently required. Depending on the scale of flooding and the nature of damage to infrastructure, other response assets may be required.

Local, state, and federal governments all play a part in managing and responding to flood hazards. National Guard assets are frequently deployed. FEMA plays a pivotal role in flood mitigation and coordinating federal disaster assistance. For example, the agency is responsible for flood hazard mapping. In addition, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers runs the National Flood Risk Management Program, which manages and updates information on flood-prone areas; integrates damage and hazard reduction projects across local, state, and federal levels; and inspects over 13,000 miles of levees around the country. When there is an imminent threat and states request assistance, the Corps provides emergency response, including technical engineering advice, sandbags and pumps, and emergency levees. Geospatial information is also vitally important in directing flood response.

The most damaging floods in the United States have resulted from torrential rains caused by hurricanes that inundate waterways. Hurricane Ivan, for example, made landfall on September 16, 2004, striking the Florida panhandle and the coast of Alabama and inflicting $18 billion in damage, much of it caused by flooding. In contrast, the “Great Flood of 1993,” one of the largest in the nation’s history, was not the result of a single weather event, but rather an accumulation of unusual precipitation. As a result of the storm, FEMA provided assistance in over 500 counties in nine states, with most damage in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. The flooding killed 47, forced the evacuation of over 74,000, and caused more than $15 billion of property damage.

VOLCANIC ERRUPTIONS

Volcanoes are mountains created by volcanic activity, magma from underneath the earth’s crust that forces its way to the surface. Molten rock under the volcano emits gases. When the gases become trapped, pressure builds within and may cause an eruption, sometimes accompanied by earthquakes, tsunamis, rock slides, mud slides, flash floods, and rock falls. Hazards are numerous. Lava flows (magma that breaches the surface) can set fires. Blasts of rock can travel several miles at high velocity, and volcanic ash can drift even farther. Poison gases are also emitted. Acid rain can result. Typically, the danger area around a volcano extends approximately 20 miles. Some direct physical dangers may reach 100 miles or more. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains an alert notification system for volcanic activity, but volcanic eruptions cannot always be accurately predicted.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, there are about 170 active volcanoes in U.S. territory. Eighty have erupted in the last 500 years. The most active are in Hawaii, Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest. The Cascade mountain range (in California, Oregon, and Washington) has also erupted in modern times.

Volcanoes pose a direct threat of death and injury. The explosion and emitted material may damage buildings and infrastructure. Acid rain and ash can harm health and machinery. For example, in 2010 ash from an Icelandic volcano grounded aircraft across Europe, causing perhaps the worst international flight disruptions since 9/11.

Early warning and evacuation are vital components of disaster response. In the wake of a disaster, restoring infrastructure is usually the most critical task. Sheltering displaced persons may also be crucial.

Depending on the location and severity of the disruption, all categories of responders may be required for a disaster response. FEMA would coordinate federal assistance.

Mount St. Helens, in Washington, is the most active volcano in the Cascade mountain range. It erupted on May 18, 1980, offering an example of the large-scale impact of a volcanic eruption on the United States. It was accompanied by an earthquake that measured 5.1 on the Richter scale. The eruption killed 57 people and destroyed homes, bridges, roads, and rail lines. Losses exceeded $1 billion.

FOREST FIRES

Wildfires result from many causes. Annually, about half the acreage destroyed is from fires started by lightning. Human activity (for example, unattended camp fires), however, is responsible for starting most fires, over 80 percent. According to the U.S. Fire Administration, there were over 78,000 wildland fires in 2009. As a report by the Congressional Research Service noted, however, “[o]nly about 1% of wildfires become conflagrations, but which fires will ‘blow up’ into catastrophic wildfires is unpredictable.”³ Several factors affect the intensity of fires, including the amount of “fuel” available (such as fallen trees), weather (such as winds, temperature, and humidity), and topography (steep slopes, for example, increase the speed and intensity with which a wildfire will spread). Fire conditions are designated from low to critical. The National Weather Service also issues fire watch and red flag warning alerts. A red flag warning is issued when conditions for wildfires are considered optimum. Actually predicting the outbreak and scope of a wildfire is very difficult.

Wildfires occur in all U.S. states and territories, but the largest usually break out in the West and Midwest. The majority of wildlands are privately owned. Most federal forested lands are overseen by the U.S. Forest Service, part of the Department of Agriculture (USDA). The Department of the Interior also has several land managing agencies, including the Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Bureau of Indian Affairs. States also own forested lands.

Fires threaten lives and property. In addition, they can create significant air pollution with its attendant health risks. Damage from wildfires may also increase the likelihood of flooding or land and mud slides.

Mitigation and prevention are key to managing wildfire hazards. Evacuations are critical to reducing loss of life. Sheltering of evacuees and livestock can be a major responsibility during wildfire response. Firefighting and disaster assistance are conducted by tribal, local, state, and federal assets, depending on the location of the fire and the severity of the threat. States are responsible for fire protection on state and privately owned land.

The federal government takes an interagency approach to forest fire response. The National Interagency Fire Center serves as the national support center, with eight agencies and organizations represented, including the USDA, DHS, and Interior and Defense departments. Most federal assistance is provided under Emergency Support Function No. 4—Firefighting. If a wildland fire grows to the point where local personnel and equipment are insufficient, authorities notify one of 11 geographic area coordination centers that operate under the National Interagency Fire Center. National Guard assets are often deployed to assist in firefighting.

The 1871 Great Peshtigo Fire in Michigan and Wisconsin killed 1,500 and burned over four million acres. In the modern era, fires have proven less deadly, but they can be very destructive. In October 2003 a cluster of 15 fires raged for two weeks across San Diego, Ventura, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties in California. Over 750,000 acres burned, forcing the evacuation of 80,000. At least 24 people died and another 200 were injured. Property damage was estimated at over $2.5 billion.

LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS

Massive slides or flows of earth, rock, ice, mud, or other debris may occur for many reasons, often without warning. This can be triggered by geological events, such earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Ground materials may become saturated with water from heavy rainfalls or melting snow. This rapid increase in weight can cause large expanses of materials to become a high-speed mass or “slurry” that plows through anything in its path. Erosion, clearing of forests, and strip mining may also create landslide conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey provides hazard information on landslide and debris flow risks.

All states and territories may experience landslides or debris flows. The most significant slides in the United States have occurred on the West Coast.

Landslides can result in death, injury, and destruction of buildings and infrastructure. On average within the United States, 25 people die each year from these hazards. Landslides and debris flows cause, on average, up to $2 billion a year in damage.

Prevention is the most important component of dealing with this hazard. This includes land-use management that mitigates conditions contributing to slides. In a response, all categories of local responders may be needed. In particular, SAR capabilities and the sheltering of displaced persons may be required, as well as Civil Air Patrol support. Federal assets would be requested and coordinated through FEMA. The U.S. Geological Survey manages the National Landslide Hazards Program, which works to understand and reduce land and debris slide risks.

Landslides usually don’t claim a high number of casualties. The most significant such event in modern history was a 1969 landslide in Nelson County, Virginia, that killed 150. The most costly slides occurred in Southern California in 1980, inflicting over $1 billion in property damage. Most costs result from disrupted transportation infrastructure. A typical example is the 1983 Thistle Landslide in Utah. The slide wiped out part of a highway and railroad, wreaking an estimated $200 million in damage due to destruction of infrastructure and associated job loss.

PANDEMICS

Pandemics can represent a significant healthrisk. The term pandemic refers to the scale of the spread of an infectious disease. An outbreak represents an unexpected high number of infections in a community or region. An epidemic is a rapidly spreading infectious disease that expands to multiple geographical areas. A “pandemic is an infectious disease outbreak on a global scale. The severity and means of transmission can vary greatly. Some diseases, for example, may spread rapidly but result in low mortality rates. Others, which represent new strains of a disease (resulting from natural genetic mutations, or biological weapons), may be highly lethal because humans lack natural immunity and suitable medical countermeasures are not available. Not only do diseases vary in severity, but they can be transmitted by many different means. Some may be zoonotic—in other words, transmitted from animals to humans. Others may move by human touch or airborne particles. The World Health Organization maintains a pandemic alert system, with a scale ranging from phase 1 (low risk) to phase 6 (a fullblown pandemic).

Sickness and death are primary concerns related to pandemic. In many cases, persons with compromised, weakened, and immature immune systems are most at risk. These groups include young children, pregnant women, the elderly, individuals with immunodeficiency diseases, and malnourished people. Some diseases may be equally debilitating to healthy adult individuals. The “worried well” may also be a significant challenge; these individuals are not sick but still seek medical treatment out of fear. Their demands place an additional stress on medical assets. Secondary hazards may result from disruptions caused by the disease. The impact on retail outlets (such as food stores), transportation providers, phone systems, financial institutions, and the Internet could be significant. Public safety and health assistance in some cases might also be an issue, both because police and medical personnel may be overwhelmed with those needing help and because these personnel themselves may be ill or at home attending to sick loved ones. Pandemics threaten not just health, but the normal workings of many day-to-day activities, from travel to emergency response. This includes potential scenarios unthinkable to many Americans—such as having a seriously ill relative turned away from a hospital emergency room.

Early warning and health monitoring are central to effective disease detection. Public health measures help halt the spread of disease and may include everything from directing specific sanitation practices to ordering “social distancing” (initiatives to limit human contact, such as prohibiting parades, sporting events, and other public activities). Quarantine and isolation may also be directed, though these practices fail to limit the spread of some diseases. Public health screening at ports of entry or in communities may be ordered. Medical countermeasures may include vaccines (immunizations that stimulate natural immunity to diseases), prophylactics (means to prevent transmission of the disease, such as wearing a mask), and therapeutics (means to cure or mitigate the effects of disease or its contagious properties). In addition to medical support activities, pandemics require significant logistical support to deliver goods and services. Requirements for mortuary assistance could be dramatic as the number of dead increases. Business continuity and disaster planning reduce economic disruption.

Pandemic threats will likely require integrated response of all levels of government and the private sector. The Department of Health and Human Services is the lead federal agency for pandemic response. Disaster medical assistance teams and the Strategic National Stockpile managed by the department are specific assets available for response. In addition, virtually every federal agency may be involved in response and recovery, for which the federal government has conducted significant planning.

While the 1918 pandemic is the best known and most devastating in American history, it is not the only one of the modern era. The 1958 influenza pandemic killed about 70,000 Americans. An influenza pandemic in 1968 killed an estimated 34,000.

HAZARDOUS MATERIAL SPILLS OR RELEASES

A hazardous material spill or release (often called hazmat) can be caused by terrorist attack, accident, or natural disaster. Hazardous materials are substances that pose an unreasonable risk to health, safety, property, or the environment. These include explosives, flammable and combustible substances, poisons, and radioactive materials. They could be solid, gas, or liquid. FEMA estimates there are 4.5 million facilities in the United States that use or store hazardous materials. These include everything from industrial plants and refineries to dry cleaners and gardening supply stores. Hazardous materials are transported by air, sea, rail, roads, and pipelines. On any given day, several hundred thousand shipments of hazardous material freight are transiting the United States. In addition, building materials and other substances may contain elements hazardous when released by burning, crushing, or other activities that aerosolize particles and release them into the air, soil, or water. The most common hazardous material releases occur as the result of industrial or transportation accidents. Hazmat incidents are common in the United States; several thousand occur each year. Hazardous material incidents that threaten significant loss of life, contamination, or property damage could be considered a disaster or mass emergency. There are various forms of hazardous material alerts and warnings. For example, the International Atomic Energy Agency issues warnings based on its International Nuclear and Radiological Event scale.

Industrialized areas, certain critical infrastructure, and transportation hubs are most at risk. The effects of a hazardous material release or spill, however, could be felt almost anywhere. These incidents are of greatest concern where populations are densest. In addition, some environments, such as wetlands, are especially vulnerable.

Risks associated with hazardous material incidents include death, injury, sickness, and property damage. Some hazardous material events may also result in fire or explosions. Health risks from a hazardous material event may be both immediate and long term.

Prevention is considered the first line of defense. Many federal laws govern the handling, storage, and transport of hazardous materials, as well as response efforts (see Chapter 17). In the event of an incident, the critical first step is recognition, both of the release or spill and its identity. Next comes notification of response forces capable of dealing with the incident. Essential tasks that follow include isolation (this may involve establishing perimeters and evacuating populations); protection for responders (such as issuing personal protective equipment); and response, including stopping a spill, rendering aid and medical assistance, fighting fires, and other activities. Once the incident is contained, a remediation plan is established. In some instances, sheltering of evacuees, pets, and livestock may be required.

Some private sector entities, such as chemical plants and nuclear facilities, are required to maintain robust response and evacuation plans. Local responders are usually the first to respond to hazmat incidents. Many local and state entities have specially trained and equipped hazmat teams. State governments can also deploy civil support teams from the National Guard. Additional support can be obtained through emergency medical compacts. In addition, many private sector companies offer hazmat response capabilities. If a federal response is required, the Environmental Protection Agency is usually the lead agency in the United States. The U.S. Coast Guard is designated the lead federal agency for significant spills that occur in a coastal environment. FEMA coordinates other federal support through the emergency support functions.

An example of a significant but not uncommon type of major hazmat incident occurred nearAlberton, Montana, in 1996. An accident derailed 19 railcars, including 6 containing hazardous materials. The crash ruptured one tanker car, releasing 130,000 pounds of chlorine gas. Another car spilled 17,000 gallons of a corrosive industrial liquid. The incident required the evacuation of about 1,000 people, plus local livestock. Nine people were injured. A cloud of hazardous material drifted over a highway, causing several traffic accidents. Damage from the incident was estimated at almost $4 million.

FOOD OR PRODUCT CONTAMINATION AND ANIMAL DISEASE OUTBREAKS

These incidents can be produced by terrorist attack, but usually involve naturally occurring disease outbreaks and human error. They range from deadly illness spread by contaminated food to the loss of livestock due to diseases. Areas of focus are the agricultural and food sectors, including farms, production and processing facilities, restaurants and food services operations, retail, warehousing, transportation, and supporting logistics. Incidents could also affect manufacturers, supply chain entities, and firms that produce consumable goods, such as vitamins and medicines. Alerts and recalls for these incidents are issued by state and federal agencies.

Incidents can happen on the local, regional, national, or international level. A major incident in the United States or Canada, for example, will likely involve both countries. Mexico is also often affected. The risks from these incidents include sickness, death, injury, and economic loss and disruption.

As with hazardous materials, prevention is considered the most important component for preventing mass emergencies (see Chapter 17). Farmland security relies on conducting risk assessments and developing and implementing appropriate plans and measures to mitigate risks, including the prevention of tampering with animals, crops, supplies, chemicals, and water and energy sources. Programs include screening, orienting, and training employees. Security is also an important part of a complete program. Biological security measures are becoming standard in many agricultural sectors. These controls are meant to minimize the risk of introducing and spreading disease. The object is to stop transmission of disease-causing agents by preventing, minimizing, or controlling cross-contamination (through feces, urine, saliva, and other organic materials) between animals, and through contact with feed, equipment, or humans. Biosecurity has three major components: (1) isolation, (2) traffic control, and (3) sanitation. Many federal and state agencies have issued regulations or guidelines governing safety and security requirements for agriculture and medical processing facilities. The USDA has also established voluntary guidelines for secure transportation.

In an incident, each state has its own structure to manage preparedness and response activities for agricultural and product emergencies. In some states, for example, state and local emergency operations may be coordinated through a state department of agriculture, board of animal health, or animal health commission. Key operational activities include conducting surveillance of potential animal or plant diseases, invasive species, chemicals, poisons, or toxins that represent a substantial threat. Response and recovery activities include efforts to limit the impact of a terrorist attack by minimizing the spread of damage or speeding the recovery of supplies or services. As part of the effort, agencies directing emergency operations must have authority to order the evacuations of, restrict movement of, or detain animals, agricultural products, equipment, and personnel in order to prevent the spread of disease. Emergency managers must also have special authorities to direct technical assistance and establish shelters for animals.

The U.S. government’s authority to regulate interstate commerce gives federal agencies significant authorities to respond. Several federal agencies provide resources and coordination in support of the agricultural sector. These include DHS, Department of Health and Human Services, USDA, EPA, and public-private partnerships. The Food and Drug Administration, with its Office of Crisis Management, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention all play important roles in federal response. Several offices and agencies within the USDA assist in preparedness and response for the agricultural sector. The Offices of Food Security and Emergency Preparedness were established by the USDA to coordinate activities to prevent and respond to an intentional attack. The USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service is responsible for ensuring the safety of commercial meat, poultry, and egg supplies. The service issues guidelines, conducts inspections and monitoring, and coordinates response activities. The USDA has developed a National Animal Health Reserve Corps to mobilize close to 300 private veterinarians from around the United States during an emergency.

Incidents have occurred on a regular basis, especially cases of people infected by improperly prepared food (including the deadly Escherichia coli bacterium found in meat) and even occasional deaths caused by the intentional or accidental poisoning of consumer products. An example of a major animal disease outbreak occurred in 2003, when cows infected with a highly contagious disease, bovine spongi-form encephalopathy (or “mad cow disease”), which is also zoonotic (in other words, can be transmitted to humans), were discovered in Canada and the United States. Many countries banned the import of U.S. and Canadian beef. In the two years after outbreak, the United States lost an estimated $4 billion in exports.

SEVERE STORMS AND COLD WEATHER

Severe winter storms can produce dangerous amounts of snow, ice, strong winds, and freezing rain. Extreme cold weather may accompany storms or occur even without a major weather event. The National Weather Service issues extreme cold and winter storm watches and warnings.

The Northern Rockies and Northern Plains are most susceptible to cold weather emergencies, though they can occur throughout most of the continental United States. Extreme cold weather usually appears during late autumn, winter, and early spring. Regions that normally escape extreme winters often experience the greatest challenges in dealing with cold weather emergencies.

Cold weather emergencies create risk of death and injury either from direct exposure to extreme cold or conditions created by storms or extreme cold (such as traffic accidents, house fires or death from carbon monoxide poisoning). Extreme weather can also affect critical infrastructure or the delivery of goods and services. Power outages and disruption of ground and air transportation are common. High winds and snow can damage buildings and in extreme cases lead to structural collapse. In some cases, winter storms may contribute to subsequent flooding.

Restoration of critical infrastructure is often the most significant element in disaster response, with snow removal a principal task. First responders may be required to administer aid under extreme conditions. In some cases, shelter must be provided for displaced persons. Business continuity and disaster planning can limit economic disruption.

States and local governments normally respond to cold weather emergencies. National Guard units are often deployed. Federal assistance is contingent upon a presidential disaster declaration made in response to a request by the state and an assessment of the severity and scope of the emergency.

A typical example of an extreme weather emergency occurred on Christmas Day 2000, when severe ice and snow storms engulfed the state of Oklahoma for two days. Severe conditions persisted for several days. A presidential disaster declaration spanned 39 counties. Some 120,000 homes and businesses lost power for an extended period. At least 27 people died. Property damage was estimated at $170 million.

DROUGHT AND EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS

Drought and extreme heat conditions (often called “heat waves”) are a common form of mass emergency. FEMA classifies extreme heat conditions as “temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the average high temperature for the region and last for several weeks.” A drought is an extended period without significant rainfall. When conditions of drought, heat, and extreme weather coincide, conditions are most dangerous. The National Weather Service issues extreme weather warnings.

All areas of the United States could risk drought or extreme heat. These conditions usually occur during the late spring, summer, and early autumn. Areas with historically low rainfall, not surprisingly, are often susceptible to drought.

Extreme heat can increase risk of death or injury. According to FEMA, in a typical year 175 people will die from extreme heat. Young and old, and individuals with certain medical conditions, such as diabetes, as well as pets and livestock, may be more at risk. Extreme heat and drought can cause infrastructure disruptions, such as power outages due to excessive demand. They may also exacerbate conditions for wildfires and health risks from air pollution. In addition, extreme heat and drought may cause economic disruption, such as crop failure and lost worker productivity. Extreme heat may also trigger other dangerous weather events, including storms, tornadoes, and flooding. Heat waves and drought can inflict significant environmental damage.

Individual preparedness and risk mitigation measures are vital to reducing injuries. Emergency response usually requires rendering aid. Providing cooled shelters may also be important to assist those without air conditioning. Business continuity and disaster planning are needed to limit economic disruption.

Emergency responders are frequently called upon during extreme heat conditions, as is the National Guard in certain cases. As with extreme cold emergencies, federal assistance is contingent upon a presidential disaster declaration.

Heat wave conditions are frequent in the United States. Some incidents have been grave. In the summer of 1980, for example, heat and drought gripped most of the Midwest. Lasting for several weeks, this event contributed to over 1,700 deaths. Economic damage was estimated at $20 billion.

STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE

Structures—buildings or other critical infrastructure, including bridges, dams and tunnels—may collapse as the result of terrorist attack or natural disaster, including earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, and land and debris slides. Poor construction or design may also be at fault.

Structural collapse could occur anywhere. The threat is most severe in areas with high population densities and transportation hubs.

Risks associated with structural collapse include death and injury. Injuries can occur from falling or flying objects or electrocution from exposed wires. Structural collapses may also cause fires, flooding, and explosions. Young, elderly, and disabled persons may be particularly vulnerable during a structural collapse emergency. Damage to infrastructure and economic disruptions are also a major concern. Responding to structural collapses that occur during other emergencies such as an earthquake or heat wave could be particularly difficult. Structural collapses can precipitate the release of hazardous materials and responders are often themselves at risk during a structural collapse disaster.

Prevention and mitigation of risks are most critical for dealing with this hazard. Building codes, as well as other local, state, and federal regulations, establish requirements to control risks. However, the high level of deferred maintenance on infrastructure across the United States raises concerns about the adequacy of preventive measures. Disaster preparation, plans and drills, such as practicing emergency evacuation procedures, are essential to reducing loss of life.

A number of federal agencies including the Department of Transportation, the Army Corps of Engineers, and the Coast Guard have oversight responsibilities for critical infrastructure that may be susceptible to structural collapse. In the event of a disaster, local responders of all kinds are normally involved, which may also trigger mutual aid agreements. Private sector workers such as construction crews, plumbers, and electricians are frequently called in. About 10,000 workers, for example, were involved each day at the World Trade Center site after 9/11. Urban search and rescue teams are frequently deployed to deal with complex and dangerous rescues and recoveries. Federal assistance may be requested by the state depending on the nature of the incident.

An example of a significant structural collapse event occurred August 1, 2007, when a bridge spanning the Mississippi River in Minneapolis collapsed without warning. Thirteen people died and 145 were injured. In addition, the disaster caused significant economic disruption to the downtown area, including dramatic impact on small businesses. Economic losses were estimated at $60 million.

HOSTAGETAKING, RIOTS, AND TARGETED VIOLENCE

These incidents, whether premeditated or occurring spontaneously, represent a significant threat to public safety. Aside from terrorist attacks, they include riots and “rampage” or “spree” shootings. Some violent acts, such as looting, may occur as the consequence of other disasters, such as a heat wave or earthquake. They could also result from public protests and demonstrations, including those in which radical groups announce their intention to attack symbolic meetings or facilities beforehand. Such acts and others may represent “targeted violence (violent incidents where both the perpetrator and target(s) are identified or identifiable prior to the incident).”⁴ These incidents could be terrorist or criminal acts or perpetrated by mentally disturbed persons. Local public safety officials usually provide public safety warnings, as may the FBI. DHS provides alerts of terrorist activity.

While these events could occur anywhere, greatest concern focuses on areas with high population concentrations. Special care is given to protect critical infrastructure and transportation networks. Places particularly vulnerable to public violence such as schools, government buildings, and workplace environments also merit concern.

Death and injury are obviously the greatest hazards. Damage and disruption to critical infrastructure and economic loss are also significant concerns. When these incidents occur with another disaster, the safety and employment of emergency responders may be more challenging. Mental health risks are particularly associated with public and targeted violence incidents.

Prevention is vital and involves identifying perpetrators, plots, and outbreaks beforehand. For dealing with the threat of terrorist assaults, see Chapter 7. Risk and threat assessments procedures and protocols are also used to mitigate potential violent acts. Physical security and emergency response plans and drills are equally important. Children, the elderly, and persons with disabilities require special consideration. In the event of a response, issuing emergency warnings, evacuating persons, and securing the scene are important. Effectively dealing with riots, targeted violence, and hostage situations often requires response from law enforcement personnel with special training and equipment. For example, an “active shooter” is an individual gunning down people in a confined and populated area. Responders should have received active shooter training, special techniques of engagement and marksmanship to stop shooters while minimizing danger to bystanders.

Local law enforcement is the primary responder for public and targeted violence and often includes bomb squads and special weapons and tactics (SWAT) teams. Other emergency responders may be required to render aid, including medical assistance. National Guard assets are often called in response to public riots. Federal agencies maintain some specialized response assets. The Secret Service protects selected government officials against targeted violence. The FBI maintains specialized Hostage Rescue and Counterterrorism Tactical teams. The Coast Guard’s Deployable Operations Group has some capacity to deal with maritime hostage rescue. The Department of Defense has classified missions to deploy response assets for certain incidents.

Public and targeted violence can take many forms. One example is the horrific 2007 shootings at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech) in Blacksburg, Virginia. Seung-Hui Cho, a student at the university, used a firearm to kill 32 people and wound 25 others.

SPACE WEATHER

Unusual and significant electromagnetic emissions from the sun are a serious but often under appreciated hazard. Space weather includes geomagnetic storms (disturbances in the geomagnetic field caused by gusts in solar wind that blows by earth), solar storms (elevated levels of radiation that occur when energetic particles increase), and radio blackouts (disturbances of the ionosphere caused by X-ray emissions from the sun). The National Weather Service provides space weather alerts and warnings. Assessments are made by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The NOAA maintains a space weather scale for each type of event and ratings range from minor to extreme. Hazards are described in terms of potential effects to humans, space-based assets (such as satellites), and terrestrial infrastructure. Accurately predicting space weather remains an evolving science. Currently, solar flares can be predicted with accuracy two to three days in advance.

Space weather effects are global. They can also have a regional impact and affect specific space-based assets.

Hazards from space weather are based on the kinds and intensity of the event. Events can disrupt many critical communication and navigation systems, including cell phones, radio, and global positioning systems (GPS). Extreme geomagnetic storms could cause widespread blackouts and power grid failures. Major solar radiation storms could represent health risks to astronauts and passengers and crew flying at high altitude. Extreme radio blackouts will cause outages in maritime and general aviation navigation systems. A massive solar event could have catastrophic consequences similar to a large high-altitude nuclear air burst, an effect called high-altitude electromagnetic pulse. The result would cause massive disruption of national infrastructure with devastating consequences.⁵ (This threat may also be posed by specialized weapons available to America’s enemies, which could possibly cause the failure of numerous technologies ranging from cars to computers and ATMs to the power grid.)

Mitigating the effects of space weather on critical infrastructure is the only response to a massive solar event. Emergency functions would have to handle interference and damage; in large part they cannot do so at the present time. For lesser events that may inflict moderate damage, the response would be similar to dealing with a blackout caused by other forces, such as severe storms. Preparations for massive space weather incidents will require integrated national public-private planning.

An example of extreme space weather occurred on March 13, 1989. An unusually large geomagnetic storm triggered an electromechanical failure that took a major Quebec power facility off-line. Sudden loss of power caused a cascading failure in the province’s grid, plunging almost a million people into darkness. The outage was so severe it almost caused a cascading failure in portions of the U.S. grid. Service restoration took more than nine hours.

CHAPTER SUMMARY

There are limits to the all-hazards approach to disaster response, since many disasters and mass emergencies have unique characteristics that must be accounted for in response and mitigation planning. In addition, disasters may be complex, requiring responders to deal with several different types of incidents at the same time. Finally, the role of local, state, and federal responders is often determined by the scope and type of incident.

CHAPTER QUIZ

1. Prevention is the most important activity in which emergencies and disasters?

2. Early warning is not available for which disasters?

3. What other types of disasters are often associated with hurricanes?

4. Which parts of the United States are most susceptible to disasters?

5. Which disasters are most difficult to prepare for?

NOTES

1. Matylda Czarnecka, “When Social Media Becomes the Message: the Gulf Oil Spill and @BPGlobalPR,” GreenTech, June 26, 2010, techcrunch.com/2010/06/26/bp-pr-bpglobalpr.

2. Ronald W. Perry and E.L. Quarantelli, What Is a Disaster? New Answers to Old Questions (Newark, DE: International Research Committee on Disasters, 2005), 20.

3. Ross W. Gorte, “Forest Fire/Wildfire Protection,” Congressional Research Service, January 18, 2006.

4. Marisa Reddy et al., “Evaluating Risk for Targeted Violence in Schools: Comparing Risk Assessment, Threat Assessment, and Other Approaches,” Psychology in the Schools, 38/1 (2001): 158.

5. James Jay Carafano and Richard Weitz, “EMP Attacks—What the U.S. Must Do Now,” Backgrounder No. 2491, November 17, 2010, www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/11/EMP-Attacks-What-the-US-Must-Do-Now.