Optimizing trading signals

In section, we discussed that trading signals with static input cannot deliver profitable results consistently, given that market conditions and market participants evolve over time. In the previous section, we saw how having a large quantitative system that can continuously compute and store results for different trading signals over time can help us to deal with this. Another component that should be part of a sophisticated algorithmic trading business' arsenal is a data-mining/optimization system capable of taking existing trading signals, building a very large number input instrument and parameter combinations, and then trying to optimize over that very large population of similar, but slightly different, trading signals of different prediction horizons over certain time periods and summarizing the results to find the best one. In essence, this is similar to the trading signals dictionary/database setup we discussed before, but the purpose here is to build and try variations of signals that the researcher does not need to provide manually and then find better variants than what they can come up with intuitively/manually.

This is often necessary to bridge the gap between what trading signals and parameters researchers believe should work intuitively and what is optimal and also helps us to discover trading signals, input, and parameter combinations that might otherwise be overlooked. This system can involve relatively straightforward methods, such as grid searching over permutations of different signals and parameter values, or can be quite advanced and involve optimization techniques, such as linear optimization, stochastic gradient descent, convex optimization, genetic algorithms, or maybe even non-linear optimization techniques. This is a very complex system that has many sub-components, such as a trading-signals and parameters-permutation generator, signal evaluator, quantitative measures of signal predictive abilities, signal performance summary algorithms, grid-searching methods, possibly advanced optimization implementations and components to analyze and visualize summary statistics for trading signal performance.

This is, however, an important optimization platform/system that will help prevent trading signal decay after being deployed to live trading markets, by letting us proactively adjust and adapt to changing market conditions and maintain profitability, and can often increase profitability over time by helping us to find better variants of trading signals than the ones we started with. Advanced market participants invest in massively scalable cloud/cluster computing systems to run these optimizations around the clock to look for better signals.

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