25
06
A wise and well-respected
writer once said, “Nobody
knows anything.” Listen to him.
William Goldman, legendary screenwriter of such clas-
sic fi lms as Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid and All the
President’s Men, had an axiom about Hollywood: Nobody
knows anything.
I have often said to writers that the publishing busi-
ness should not even be called a “business” from our side
of things. In business, you can do market research and an-
ticipate a certain amount of return for a certain amount
of effort.
Not so the writer. There’s no guarantee of any return
on our investment of time and effort.
And while for the publishers it is all about the bot-
tom line, they aren’t guaranteed a hit every time, either.
What makes a successful book or career is something
of a mystery. Every now and then some new writer hits it
big, and everybody tries to fi gure out why. But that’s only
after the fact. Trying to make it happen again almost
never works.
Curtis Sittenfeld’s novel Prep was published with a
low advance and low expectations. Then the thing sold
Z4273i_008-038.indd 25Z4273i_008-038.indd 25 9/24/09 11:20:31 AM9/24/09 11:20:31 AM
26
133,000 copies in hardcover. The paperback did boffo,
the movie rights were optioned.
So Ms. Sittenfeld got a new two-book deal with a
huge advance and marketing effort. But her second novel,
The Man of My Dreams, disappointed.
As Ms. Sittenfeld herself put it, “People think pub-
lishing is a business, but it’s a casino.”
Charles Frazier’s Cold Mountain was a surprise sensa-
tion, selling 1.6 million copies in hardcover.
So … he was given $8 million for his next one, Thir-
teen Moons. The publisher printed 750,000 copies. About
240,000 were sold. Leaving maybe $7 million of the ad-
vance unearned.
“It’s guesswork,” said Bill Thomas, editor in chief of
Doubleday Broadway.
So, what can you do about the guesswork?
Your job.
Which is the page in front of you. Making it the best
it can be.
More on how to do that in “Part II: Tactics.”
Z4273i_008-038.indd 26Z4273i_008-038.indd 26 9/24/09 11:20:32 AM9/24/09 11:20:32 AM
..................Content has been hidden....................
You can't read the all page of ebook, please click here login for view all page.