Chapter 3

Harnessing the Power of Big Data to Counter International Terrorism

Andrew Staniforth,  and Babak Akhgar

Abstract

For over a century the security apparatus of the United Kingdom (UK) has prevented terrorist atrocities and has pursued those who sought to destroy its free and democratic way of life. Despite developing one of the world's most sophisticated counterterrorism architectures, successful terrorist attacks have occurred with alarming regularity. The new era of global terrorism has brought fresh challenges to which the pace of change to counterterrorism practice has been unprecedented in the UK's long history of protecting the nation's security. This chapter explores the effectiveness of contemporary counterterrorism responses, identifying the investigative challenges of handling increased volumes of information. This chapter also considers new operational challenges from emerging threats and examines how Big Data can rapidly develop counterterrorism practices to accelerate the identification of terrorist networks, support identification of the roots of radicalization within online communities, and increase the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies to keep citizens safe from contemporary terrorist threats.

Keywords

Analysis; Assessment; Extremism; Intelligence; Radicalization; Security; Terrorism; Violence

Introduction

The United Kingdom (UK) has long been an island under siege from extremists who believe they can advance their aims through acts of violence. For over a century the British security apparatus of the state has prevented terrorist atrocities and has pursued those who wish to destroy its free and democratic way of life. Yet, although the UK has developed one of the world’s most sophisticated counterterrorism architectures, successful terrorist attacks have occurred with alarming regularity.
The rapid developments that have been made to counterterrorism since the catastrophic events of September 11, 2001 in the United States (US) are unprecedented in the UK’s long history of protecting the nation’s security. As 9/11 marked the dawn of a new era of global terrorism, technological advancements in communications through the creation of the Internet, social media, and the volume of open source information changed—and continue to change—the very nature of terrorism. To respond to the immediacy of the terrorist threat, major cultural shifts in counterterrorism have taken place alongside societal views and attitudes toward national security. As a result, counterterrorism is no longer the hidden dimension of statecraft and has moved out of the shadows in recent years. While the British government has rightly made strides toward an increasingly open and public facing domestic security apparatus, the nature of counterterrorism remains enshrined in a preventative ethos.
To prevent terrorism and render visible what others do not want authorities to know, counterterrorism must be intelligence-led and so necessitates a covert approach. That being said, not all countermeasures need to be cloaked in secrecy for them to be effective, and the contemporary phase of counterterrorism has evolved important new trends alongside palpable moves toward expansion and localism. Countering terrorism today is a collaborative approach. No one single government agency or department can protect the nation from the diverse range of threats required to be tackled at home and overseas. Collaboration in counterterrorism was amplified after the discovery of the home-grown terrorist threat of embedded citizens living in UK communities, which served to challenge the traditional pursuit of terrorists and raised concerns as to whether the police and their intelligence agency partners had the capacity and capability to protect the public they serve. The severity of the post-9/11 terrorist threat prompted a relentless pursuit of information by intelligence and law enforcement agencies, who developed an increasing appetite for capturing unprecedented volumes of data—much of which was thrust upon them during the investigation of major counterterrorism operations. This chapter first examines the unique operational challenges faced by intelligence and law enforcement agencies during the early phases of tackling the post-9/11 terrorist threat. Exploring specific counterterrorism operations and the difficulties of progressing in multiple investigations while capturing increasingly large volumes of data highlights how the use of Big Data can support contemporary counterterrorism investigations.

A New Terror

In 2003, Omar Khyam, a 24-year-old man from Crawley, West Sussex, began planning an ambitious terrorist attack in the UK. The scale and scope of his deadly and determined attack were unprecedented at the time and would stretch the UK’s security apparatus to near the breaking point. Recruited and radicalized by the ideological rhetoric of Islamist extremists, Khyam led a small group of British citizens who sympathized with the Al Qaeda cause. The terrorist cell included his younger brother, 18-year-old Shujah Mahmood, as well as Jawad Akbar, aged 22, and Waheed Mahmood, aged 33. The four men, all from Crawley, shared Pakistani backgrounds; meetings in Britain over the conflict in Kashmir led them to become interested in the mujahedeen fighters in the disputed region (Summers and Casciani, 2007). Each man traveled to Pakistan to support jihadi groups and their armed campaigns, but the jihad was no longer just in Kashmir—it was in Afghanistan, too—and the Crawley terrorist cell, fuelled by the ideology promoted by Osama bin Laden, developed a deep antipathy toward the War on Terror. Frustrated with being unable to join the insurgency in Afghanistan and angry over the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Khyam and his cell members decided they should bring extreme jihadist violence to the streets of Britain (Summers and Casciani, 2007). To carry out a successful terrorist attack, Khyam knew that they would require military experience. In July 2003, to enhance the skills of the terrorist cell, Khyam helped organize a special secret training camp in which some of the group learned weapons and explosives skills (Cowan, 2006). The cell members mulled over several ideas for a terrorist attack in the UK, one of which was to poison the beer at a football stadium (Summers and Casciani, 2007). Another suggestion proposed targeting trains, pubs, and nightclubs in Britain. They discussed attacking the Bluewater shopping center in Kent, the Ministry of Sound nightclub in south London, and even National Grid to maximize economic damage. The terrorist cell’s ambitions were limited only by their individual and collective macabre creativity, but in November 2003 they settled on delivering indiscriminate mass murder by detonating a huge bomb.

Fertilizer Plot

The Khyam-led terror cell conducted successful early experiments with a small explosive device composed of 1.5 kg of ammonium nitrate fertilizer. This experiment convinced the group that a much larger device could be used (Summers and Casciani, 2007). The cell then purchased 600 kg of ammonium nitrate (Summers and Casciani, 2007). Fertilizer has long been a constituent part of homemade explosives used by paramilitary militant groups around the world with devastating results. More important, ammonium nitrate–based fertilizer bombs had been used by the Irish Republican Army in the UK; as an essential component part of the device, it was openly available in large quantities. The terrorist conspirators stored the industrial-sized bag of agricultural fertilizer at a self-storage unit in Hanwell, West London (Sampson and Staniforth, 2012). Unbeknownst to the plotters, diligent staff at the depot had become suspicious and alerted the police. A major covert terrorist investigation was launched under the code name Operation CREVICE.
The Security Service (MI5) had already developed a keen interest in the activities of Khyam because of his suspected links to an Al Qaeda sympathizer working in both Britain and Pakistan (news.bbc.co, 1538). However, it was the call from a member of the public at the storage facility that provided the evidence to UK authorities that a significant terrorist plot was being planned. As part of the major covert terrorist investigation, the police and Security Service decided to replace the ammonium nitrate with an identical but harmless substance. This action successfully served to remove the imminent threat to the public. So long as it only contained an inert substance, no explosive device could be detonated, but investigators knew that it was only a matter of time before the terrorist cell would uncover the result of their covert actions. The removal of the key component part of the bomb provided valuable time to gather intelligence on the terrorist cells links with Al Qaeda, the extent of their network, and the exact location of the intended bombing. To support the operation, listening devices were placed in several of the defendants’ homes and a vehicle, which provided detailed surveillance coverage of the terrorists’ activities. The Security Service and the police then watched and waited for the plot to unfold, gathering both intelligence and evidence to secure the terrorists’ conviction at court.

International Dimension

Investigations soon revealed that a larger terrorist cell network existed beyond the core group from Crawley. New plotters had been identified, including Anthony Garcia, age 27, from Ilford, Essex, Nabeel Hussain, aged 20, from Horley, Surrey, and Salahuddin Amin, aged 30, from Luton, Bedfordshire. In addition, on the other side of the Atlantic, Mohammed Junaid Babar, a 31-year-old Pakistani-born US citizen, was identified as part of the CREVICE cell conspirators (Cowan, 2006). With a melancholy irony that is all too familiar to terrorist investigators, it would later be revealed that Babar had flown to Afghanistan to fight against the Americans several days after 9/11, even though his mother had been caught up in the 9/11 World Trade Center attack (Cowan, 2006). She had escaped from the first of the Twin Towers where she worked, when it was hit by Al Qaeda suicide bombers. Operation CREVICE revealed that Babar had traveled first to London, where he stayed for three or four days before traveling to Pakistan, where he met members of the Crawley-based terrorist cell. Another terrorist plotter, Canadian Mohammed Momin Khawaja, aged 29, from Ottawa, was also identified. Khawaja was assisting the terrorist plot by designing a remote-control detonator for the fertilizer-based device (News, 2008). The discovery of Khawaja and Babar added a new trans-Atlantic dimension for the operatives investigating Operation CREVICE. New information was discovered from the intrusive surveillance of Jawad Akbar’s home in Uxbridge, West London, on February 22, 2004 (Laville, 2006). During a conversation with cell leader Khyam, Babar appeared to suspect that they were under surveillance, saying, “Bruv, you do not think this place is bugged, do you?” “No, I do not think this place is bugged, bruv,” replied Khyam (Laville, 2006). During the recording Akbar suggested that the Ministry of Sound nightclub in London would be a soft target, saying, “What about easy stuff where you do not need no experience and nothing, and you could get a job, yeah, like for example the biggest nightclub in central London where no one can even turn round and say ‘Oh they were innocent,’ those slags dancing around?” (Laville, 2006). Akbar later suggested that the UK nightclubs and bars were “really, really big,” asking his fellow conspirators, “Trust me, then you will get the public talking yeah, yeah … if you went for the social structure where every Tom, Dick, and Harry goes on a Saturday night, yeah, that would be crazy, crazy thing, man” (Laville, 2006). Khyam stated, “The explosion in the clubs, yeah, that’s fine, bro, that’s not a problem. The training for that is available … to get them into the Ministry of Sound really isn’t difficult” (Laville, 2006). During the recorded conversation the men also discussed the use of terror in the jihad. Akbar stated, “I still agree with you on the point that terror is the best way and even the Qur’an says it, isn’t it?” (Laville, 2006).
As the plotters advanced their preparations, the police and Security Service operatives monitored their activities as part of a long game, waiting for the moment to move to executive action and arrest the cell members. Significant amounts of data were now being collected by MI5 and police investigative teams. The rich mix of open source information and covert intelligence data, all of which needed to be recorded, assessed, prioritized, and acted upon, was unprecedented in its volume for a single counterterrorism operation that now had international dimensions.

Executive Action

During late March 2004, the Security Service and police were forced to bring Operation CREVICE into its final phase. Information had been gained by staff at the storage facility, who reported that Khyam had mentioned he would not require storage after the end of March. This piece of information led authorities to the natural conclusion that the ammonium nitrate was to be moved either to another location for longer-term storage or as part of the final construction of the bomb (Summers and Casciani, 2007). In either case, the risks presented to the public and the ongoing covert investigation outweighed whatever gains could be made through further extending the operation. On March 29, the members of the terrorist cell were arrested. A further terrorist plotter, Khawaja was arrested in Ottawa, Canada, and Amin was later detained in Pakistan.
The executive action phase of Operation CREVICE provided compelling evidence of the reach of contemporary terrorist investigations: A new era had dawned. What had started in the town of Crawley had quickly spread across several continents. In total, approximately 700 police officers from five separate police forces were engaged in a series of raids, again showing the extensive resources required to bring modern terrorist suspects to justice. At the commencement of the CREVICE plotters’ trial at the Old Bailey in London in March 2006, Khyam, Mahmood, Akbar, Waheed Mahmood, Garcia, Hussain, and Amin all denied conspiracy to cause explosions in the UK. Khyam, Garcia, and Hussain denied possessing 600 kg of ammonium nitrate fertilizer for terrorist purposes, whereas Khyam and Shujah Mahmood denied having aluminum powder, a key component part in the development of a fertilizer-based bomb. Although the attack planned by Khyam would not have realized the mass casualties of the Al Qaeda Planes Operation of 9/11, the British plot to build a massive bomb from fertilizer nevertheless could have resulted in hundreds of deaths. Expert analysis of the kind of weapon that the convicted conspirators were making revealed that it could have led to a repeat of previous large-scale terrorist attacks. Professor Alan Hatcher, a former military bomb disposal expert, revealed that “If they had got it right, it would have been catastrophic” (Summers, 2007). According to Professor Hatcher, the CREVICE cell had all the ingredients for a crude but effective bomb. Mixed with other ingredients including aluminum powder and sugar, 600 kg of ammonium nitrate fertilizer, purchased from an agricultural merchant in Sussex, would have made a deadly device with devastating power if used in a crowded area (Summers, 2007). The Central Criminal Court also heard from Gary Smart, the general manager of the Ministry of Sound night club in London. He told the court that if the packed club were attacked, “It is clear that the consequences could be devastating. With such a large number of people in such a confined space, the impact could result in loss of life, injury, or structural damage” (Laville, 2006).

Vulnerabilities Emerge

Despite the operational challenges and complexities of a yearlong trial, Omar Khyam was found guilty of conspiring to cause explosions likely to endanger life between January 1, 2003 and March 31, 2004. Also convicted were Waheed Mahmood, Jawad Akbar, Salahuddin Amin, and Anthony Garcia. In passing sentence, the judge, Sir Michael Astill, told the five convicted men, “You have betrayed this country that has given you every opportunity. All of you may never be released. It’s not a foregone conclusion” (Summers and Casciani, 2007). Two other men, Nabeel Hussain and Shujah Mahmood, were found not guilty. The jury deliberated for 27 days, a record in British criminal history. Outside the Old Bailey, the solicitor for Nabeel Hussain read a statement on his client’s behalf, which said, “I have always maintained my innocence of the allegations against me. I have never been an extremist or believed in extremism. I am so glad this ordeal is over” (Summers and Casciani, 2007). In October 2008, in a packed Ottawa courtroom in Canada, Mohammed Momin Khawaja was found guilty on five charges of financing and facilitating terrorism related to building a remote-control device to trigger the CREVICE bombers’ fertilizer explosive. The terrorism charges against Khawaja were the first laid under Canada’s Anti-Terrorism Act introduced in the wake of 9/11. At the time of his arrest for his part of the CREVICE plot, Khawaja was a software developer for Canada’s Foreign Affairs Department. He pleaded not guilty but Ontario Supreme Court Justice Douglas Rutherford concluded that proof that he was working actively with the Crawley-based group could be found in the evidence, which included intercepted e-mails, a trip for training in Pakistan, and money transfers. Justice Rutherford wrote in his judgment that “Momin Khawaja was aware of the group’s purposes and whether he considered them terrorism or not, he assisted the group in many ways in the pursuit of its terrorist objective. It matters not whether any terrorist activity was actually carried out” (News, 2008).
Operation CREVICE was truly a landmark case in the development of counterterrorism investigation and prosecution in the UK. At that time, it was the largest and most complex counterterrorism investigation ever conducted by UK authorities. Operation CREVICE had achieved its strategic aim of protecting the public from harm, putting terrorists in prison after due legal process. Despite a successful outcome, the sheer mass of information obtained during the investigation presented its own challenges to authorities. Unbeknownst to intelligence and law enforcement agencies at the time, if subjected to rigorous review and follow-up, the volume of information captured during Operation CREVICE would have revealed early signs and indicators of future threats to public safety. They were threats—with the benefit of hindsight—that were not assessed, prioritized, or followed on the radar of UK security forces, and as a result, they were not fed into the broader national threat assessment picture. While understanding the demands placed on authorities to protect the public from a new and severe form of terror with finite resources, the collection of increased amounts of information began to expose vulnerabilities in the capacity and capability of the counterterrorism apparatus to effectively exploit large volumes of existing data recorded on their systems.

Assessing the Threat

Once the UK’s intelligence machinery of government had positively identified the domestic terrorist threat in 2003, it quickly responded to it. Operation CREVICE in particular had forestalled an attack that was intended to cause mass casualties (News, 2008). For the first time in the history of the Security Service, the Director General was invited to a meeting of the full cabinet in April 2004 to be personally congratulated by Prime Minister Tony Blair (News, 2008). Much work needed to be done to better understand the potency and potential longevity of the Islamist terrorist threat in the UK, but investigations of several Islamist groups in May 2005 had concluded that none were actively planning an attack (Andrew, 2009). The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC), established in 2003 to assess the threat from international terrorism, had reported that “We judge at present there is no group with both the current intent and the capability to attack the UK” (Intelligence and Security Committee, 2006). In addition, a JTAC report on the terrorist threat to UK rail and underground networks, which was issued to the transport sector in May 2005, summarized the threat on its front page as follows: “Rail and underground networks have been attractive targets to terrorists worldwide; Madrid attacks offer inspiration for further attacks against rail networks; attacks on UK rail networks feature highly in terrorists’ menu of options; but there is no suggestion of a current threat to UK rail or underground” (Intelligence and Security Committee, 2006). Given the information available at the time, JTAC decided to reduce the UK threat level from Severe General to Substantial, although the accompanying report that outlined the reasons for the reduction in the threat level suggested that Substantial continued to “represent a high level of threat” and that it was possible “that there was current UK attack planning of which it was unaware” (Intelligence and Security Committee, 2006). The JTAC report also explicitly warned that an attack “might well be mounted” without warning (Intelligence and Security Committee, 2006). Despite the cautionary assessment from JTAC about unknown attacks, it appeared that the combined efforts of the UK security forces, at home and overseas, had managed to curb the vaulting ambitions of British citizens inspired by the ideology of Al Qaeda.
While the imminence of a threat from homegrown terrorists appeared faintly, if at all, on the radar of intelligence agencies after the national threat level was downgraded, 2005 was already proving to be a busy period for those engaged in policing and protecting national security. In the beginning of July, the G8 Summit at Gleneagles in Scotland was well under way. One of the largest police operations the UK had ever undertaken was proving successful as a direct result of many months of planning and preparing to meet the challenges of potential terrorist and extremist threats. The world’s most powerful and influential heads of state had gathered to discuss a variety of world issues, including poverty in Africa and rising debt among Third World countries. This latter issue became center stage for the summit, resulting in a massive demonstration of 250,000 people on the streets of Edinburgh in support of the Make Poverty History campaign. Despite the operational challenges and potential for extremist or terrorist attacks, the new Deputy Director General of the Security Service, Jonathan Evans, who had been appointed in February 2005, recalled how by that stage it had so far “been a quiet week” (Andrew, 2009). On the July 6, the International Olympic Committee announced that the 2012 Olympics Games would be staged in London. Members of the public and supporters of the London Olympic bid, who had gathered at Trafalgar Square, cheered as the news was broadcast live on large screens across the capitol. Celebrations continued well into the nigh, and Prime Minister Tony Blair expressed his gratitude for the work and dedication of the team engaged in bringing the Olympics to London.
This was the celebratory backdrop when many Britons (and Londoners in particular) awoke the following morning, Thursday, July 7. The newspapers and other news media carried stories and photographs of the previous day’s celebrations. Early morning rush hour in London had started as normal. There were some delays to the Underground, including on the Northern line, but nothing unusual to report (House of Commons, 2005). Later that morning news would reach the emergency services of an unfolding national critical incident, a crisis of such profound magnitude that it would shape the way in which the actions of government would protect its citizens from future terrorist attacks. It would also prove to be the worst atrocity in the nation’s capital since the Blitzkrieg of the Third Reich during World War II.

Suicide Terror

On the morning of July 7, 2005, four young men, described by others as looking as if they were going on a camping holiday, boarded a train form Luton to London (Sampson and Staniforth, 2012). This tight-knit group was in fact British Al Qaeda-inspired suicide bombers, making their final preparations to deliver a deadly attack that had been secretly planned beneath the radar of the sprawling UK counterterrorism intelligence machinery. The train from Luton arrived at London King’s Cross station at 8:23 AM, slightly late owing to a delay ahead of them on the rail network. At 8:36 AM, the four young men, Mohammed Siddique Khan (aged 30), Shehzad Tanweer (aged 22), Jermaine Lindsay (aged 19), and Hasib Hussain (aged 18) departed the train and were captured on closed-circuit television cameras on the concourse close to the Thameslink platform, heading in the direction of the London Underground system (Staniforth, 2009). A few moments later, at around 8:30 AM, they were seen hugging each other. They appeared happy, even euphoric (Sampson and Staniforth, 2012). They then split up, each carrying an estimated 2–5 kg of homemade explosives in their rucksacks (House of Commons, 2005). The time had come to break the fraternal bond of their terrorist cell and execute their individual contributions to a deadly coordinated attack.
From their movements at this time, it appears that north, south, east, and west coordinated strikes were planned. This calculated attack seems to have been clearly designed to maximize destruction and chaos amid the 3.4 million passenger journeys made on the London Underground every day (tfl.gov.uk). At 8:50 AM, the Eastbound Circle Line train boarded by Tanweer and packed with commuters exploded (House of Commons, 2005). Forensic evidence suggested that Tanweer was sitting toward the back of the second carriage with the rucksack next to him on the floor (House of Commons, 2005). When he detonated the device, the blast killed eight people including Tanweer himself and injured a further 171 innocent members of the public. At Edgware Road, Khan was also in the second carriage from the front, most likely near the standing area by the first set of double doors (House of Commons, 2005). He was probably also seated with the bomb next to him on the floor. Shortly before the explosion, Khan was seen fiddling with the top of the rucksack. The explosion from the homemade explosives killed seven people including Khan and injured a further 163. On the Piccadilly Line, Lindsay was in the first carriage as it traveled between King’s Cross and Russell Square. It is unlikely that he was seated on the crowded train, which had 127 people in the first carriage alone (HM Government, 2012). Forensic evidence suggested that the explosion from the rucksack device occurred on or close to the floor of the standing area between the second and third set of seats (Staniforth, 2009). The most devastating of the blasts on the morning of July 7, this killed 27 people including Lindsay, leaving a further 340 people injured. On the Northern line the explosive device of Hussain failed to detonate. He left the London Underground at King’s Cross station and soon boarded a number 30 bus traveling eastward from Marble Arch. This bus was crowded after the closures on the Underground caused by the other attacks. Hussain sat on the upper deck, toward the back. Forensic evidence suggested that the bomb was next to him in the aisle or between his feet on the floor (Staniforth, 2009). A man fitting Hussain’s description was seen on the lower deck earlier, fiddling repeatedly with his rucksack (Staniforth, 2009). At 9:47 AM, the bus was diverted down Tavistock Square, when Hussain detonated the rucksack device, killing 14 people. Within just 57 minutes, 52 innocent lives were lost and 784 people were injured. Four otherwise unremarkable British citizens, inspired by Al Qaeda, had managed to deliver an attack of military proportions in the middle of the nation’s capital. The attack was undetected by all of the state’s security apparatus in operation at that time, leaving the public and those in authority asking what more could have been done to prevent the attack.

Joining the Dots

The Security Service mounted their response to the 7/7 bombings under Operation STEPFORD, which soon discovered that it had previously encountered two of the suicide bombers, Mohammed Siddique Khan and Shezhad Tawneer, on the periphery of its investigation into Operation CREVICE (Sampson and Staniforth, 2012). MI5 also discovered that it had on record a telephone number that, it was able to identify after (but not before) the attacks as that of a third suicide bomber, Lindsay (Andrew, 2009). There were no Security Service traces for Hussain. According to MI5, the first evidence of Khan’s involvement was discovered on Saturday July 9, when credit cards in his name were found at the sites of the two attacks (Andrew, 2009). Subsequent investigations by MI5 revealed that Khan and Tanweer had visited Pakistan in 2003 and spent several months there with Tanweer in the winter of 2004–5, probably in contact with Al Qaeda, planning and training for the 7/7 attacks (Andrew, 2009).
At midday on Friday, July 8, Home Secretary Charles Clarke visited MI5 headquarters at Thames House and seemed impressed by the early stages of Operation STEPFORD (Andrew, 2009). After meetings with ministers, Director General Manningham-Buller told her senior MI5 colleagues that evening that Tony Blair and Charles Clarke were “onside, not keen on knee-jerk responses, not witch-hunting and keen to let the police and MI5 get on with the job” (Andrew, 2009). She had also told Security Service personnel in the Thames House restaurant earlier that day that, “What happened on Thursday is what we’ve feared, been warning about, and have worked so hard to prevent. We were shocked by the horror but, while we had no intelligence that could have prevented it, not surprised” (Sampson and Staniforth, 2012).
The events of 7/7 and the post-incident investigation conducted by the police and MI5 had a profound impact on contemporary counterterrorism practice. Yet, more than five years after the attacks, the British public had yet to learn how their fellow citizens had died and whether departments of the state and the emergency response could have prevented their deaths.

Held to Account

In the capacity of Assistant Deputy Coroner for Inner West London, from October 11, 2010 to March 3, 2011, Right Honorable Lady Justice Hallet heard the evidence in the inquest touching the deaths of the 52 members of the public who were killed as a result of four suicide bombs. In the coroner’s report published on May 6, 2011, Hallet LJ stated that “I sat without a jury and have given verdicts of unlawful killing, with the medical cause of deaths recorded as ‘injuries caused by an explosion’ in respect of each deceased” (HM Government, 2012). On March 11, 2011, Hallet LJ announced in public that her report would be submitted under Rule 43 of the Coroner’s Act 1984. She was satisfied that the evidence she had heard gave rise to a concern that circumstances creating a risk of other deaths would occur or continue to exist in the future, and she was of the opinion that action should be taken to prevent its re-occurrence or continuation. In the light of her conclusion, Hallet LJ made nine recommendations to the authorities that had the power to take action. The nine recommendations provided lessons to be learned from the events of that morning in July. No crisis should be wasted in terms of organizational learning and development to improve responses to terrorist events of such magnitude. It was not until the close of the 7/7 inquest that a full and accurate picture emerged, which served to highlight the full scale of the challenges that emergency first responders and the states national security apparatus confronted in what is now recognized as a new era of public accountability and professional responsibility. The coroner found that none of the victims died because of the delays in the emergency response, but improvements in communication were needed between transport executives and the emergency services during a crisis (Dodd, 2011).
The 7/7 inquest also focused on UK law enforcement and intelligence agencies efforts to prevent coordinated suicide attacks. Although the coroner found that MI5 could not have prevented the attacks, she used her statutory powers to recommend that they must learn from and act on the lessons arising from the inquest. The first of two recommendations for the Security Service concerned undercover photographs taken before the 7/7 attacks of the Al Qaeda cell ringleader from Leeds, Mohammad Sidique Khan. The Security Service had denied that it had in its possession sufficient intelligence to assess Khan as a serious threat or danger to the public before he martyred himself on July 7. Surveillance images of Khan and one of his suicide cell members, Shehzad Tanweer, were obtained by MI5 in February 2004 as part of the investigation under Operation CREVICE. In April 2004, copies of the images were sent to the US. The second recommendation for MI5 that resulted from the inquest concerned how the Security Service prioritized the level of threat posed by terrorist suspects and the records it kept and how it reached those decisions. Hallet LJ found confusion about the level of priority given by MI5 to investigate Khan, but crucially refrained from criticizing the Security Service for not treating him as more of a threat. She did, however, find that inadequate recording of decisions risked “dire consequences” if potential errors could not be picked up by supervisors at MI5 (HM Government, 2012).
The 7/7 inquest had called the Security Service to account in a way that reflected a new era of public scrutiny of the state’s security forces. As the main domestic partner of MI5 in pursuing terrorists, the police service was also called on to provide details of its knowledge, awareness, and actions in preventing terrorism before the tragic events of 7/7. The high volume of counterterrorism operations being conducted in the post-9/11 era brought pressure upon state security forces to prioritize their efforts against the resources they had available. As a result, many new dots were found but they were never joined. Associates would drift in and out of major operations and many would be acquaintances remaining on the periphery of investigations, whereas many more would in fact have nothing to do with terrorism and would not be the primary subjects of the operations being conducted at the time. The links between Khan and the key conspirators of Operation CREVICE more than a year before 7/7 presented new challenges. In 2008, Lord Carlile of Berriew Q.C., then Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation, stated, “The reality that violent Jihadists all over the world are working together against the established order, and that with rare exceptions there are links of some kind to weave all the terrorist cells into an international destructive tapestry, is well argued” (Staniforth, 2009). In January 2009, Security Service Director General Jonathan Evans publicly acknowledged that “if another attack took place, the Security Service would probably discover, as after 7/7, that some of the terrorists responsible were already on its books. But the fact that we know of an individual and the fact that they have had some association with extremists doesn’t mean we are going to be indefinitely in a position to be confident about everything that they are doing, because we have to prioritize” (Andrew, 2009).
The lessons of 7/7 and the recommendations arising from the coroner’s report remain vital for the continued development of public safety and accountability. The security apparatus of the state had done everything in its power to protect its citizens from terrorist attack, but it was clear that it held information in its systems that could have supported the early identification of and possible further investigation into the 7/7 terrorist cell.

Strategic Approach

At the time of the catastrophic terrorist attack in the US on September 11, 2001, the UK government, like the US and many other countries in the developed world, had no sophisticated or coherent cross-departmental strategy to counter international terrorism. In short, the UK had no plan to institute of any rigor that would have been able to effectively respond to a major Al Qaeda indiscriminate attack. Of course, the UK security apparatus had memories of the long counterterrorist campaign in Northern Ireland to draw upon and the foundations that had been laid down in terms of a corpus of emergency terrorism legislation on the statute book. Throughout the history of counterterrorism practice in the UK, collaboration between government departments had been key to the success of many operations, and the intelligence community had learned the value of close cooperation with the police service. Nevertheless, the characteristics of violent jihadist terrorism, with its vaulting ambitions, strident ideology, and disregard for civilian casualties—indeed for all human life, with adherents prepared to give their lives in their attacks— represented new challenges for Parliament and public, government and law enforcement alike.
In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, the Cabinet Office in London initiated work on developing a comprehensive national counterterrorism strategy called CouNter-TErrorism STratgy (CONTEST). Mapped within CONTEST were four pillars, which became known as the 4Ps: Pursue, to stop terrorists attacks; Prevent, to stop people becoming terrorists, or supporting violent extremists; Protect, to strengthen protection against terrorist attack; and Prepare, to mitigate an attack’s impact when it cannot be stopped. The strategy that emerged from this work had a clear strategic aim: “to make it possible for society to maintain conditions of normality so that people could go about their normal business, freely and with confidence, even in the face of suicidal terrorist attacks” (Omand, 2010). The conditions “freely, and with confidence” were an important reminder to seek security in ways that uphold British values, such as liberty and freedom under the law. The strategy was later presented to the Cabinet and adopted in 2003, but the details remained confidential and were not published by the government until 2006. An updated version, CONTEST 2, was published in 2009, and a third generation, CONTEST 3, was published in 2011 by the coalition government.
In developing the four-pillar structure of CONTEST, the Cabinet Office believed that the strategy was easily understood as a logical narrative, translated into specific programs of action across government, the private sector, and the voluntary sector, and as has been shown, capable of being updated and extended in response to developments in the threats and in our technologies for countering them. It was important that the complexities of such a wide-ranging strategy were simplified and focused because successful delivery would depend on a joint approach and the strength of partnerships. The creation of CONTEST as an overarching public strategy has given clarity and direction to all agencies and provided the framework with which separate organizations can allocate resources and assets for a combined effect. As CONTEST developed, additional focus was on the principles of the 4P’s. The structure of CONTEST enables Prevent and Pursue to focus on the actual human threat from terrorists, designed to reduce the risk by stopping them, whereas Protect and Prepare focus on the capacity and capability of the UK to reduce vulnerability to attacks when they occur. By simultaneously tackling areas to reduce te risk and minimize vulnerability, this approach collectively serves to reduce the threat.
The development of Prevent reveals an important element of counterterrorism practice in the UK: that the public, often the victim of terrorist attacks, can help prevent them, but to do so it need to be informed and kept updated so that all can work together toward shared values of freedom, tolerance, democracy, and human rights. The immediacy and the diversity of the post-9/11 threats brought about a series of fresh challenges. At the core of many of the changes required to tackle Al Qaeda-inspired terrorism was the problematic shift to the preemption or interception of terrorism. This was a shift necessitated by the suicidal component of terrorist tactics demonstrated during 7/7, a shift that had far-reaching implications for national security, and in particular for the police service. The policing of political violence—traditionally categorized as intelligence-led and politically sensitive—had historically generated structures that had been remote, secretive, and specialist. Yet the contemporary evolution of terrorism had spawned important new trends and demanded a new policing response. Contemporary terrorism now involved embedded citizens as much as foreign extremists. Although that phenomenon may not have been new to other parts of the world, it certainly represented a significant change in Britain. As a direct result, concepts such as community involvement, multi-agency working and public assurance—now widely accepted and practiced in local policing—were to migrate into the policing of political violence. All police officers, not just specialist counterterrorism officers, therefore had to share in the tasks. Counterterrorism policing thus became a matter for all in the police, for all of their strategic partners, and for all of the public. Empowering partners, stakeholders, and communities themselves to assist in the fight against terrorism significantly increased the amount of information being gathered by authorities. Combined with increasing use of the Internet and social media and the development of smart mobile communications, the impact on terrorism and the measures deployed to counter it were profound.

Changing Threat Landscape

The Internet has changed, and continues to change, the very nature of terrorism. The Internet is well-suited to the nature of terrorism and the psyche of the terrorist. In particular, the ability to remain anonymous makes the Internet attractive to the terrorist plotter. Terrorists use the Internet to propagate their ideologies, motives, and grievances. The most powerful and alarming change for modern terrorism, however, has been its effectiveness for attracting new terrorist recruits, often the young and most vulnerable and impressionable in our societies. Modern terrorism has rapidly evolved, becoming increasingly nonphysical, with vulnerable homegrown citizens being recruited, radicalized, trained, and tasked online in the virtual and ungoverned domain of cyberspace. With the increasing number of citizens putting more of their lives online, the interconnected and globalized world in which we live provides an extremely large pool of potential candidates to draw into the clutches of disparate terrorists groups and networks.
The openness and freedom of the Internet unfortunately supports self-radicalization: the radicalization of individuals without direct input or encouragement from others. The role of the internet in both radicalization and recruitment into terrorist organizations remains a growing source of concern for security authorities. This concern was amplified as a new global threat from the Islamic State (IS) emerged in 2014. The violent progress of IS through towns and villages in Iraq had been swift, aided by foreign fighters from Britain. During the summer of 2014, IS gained control of large swathes of Iraq, leading Prime Minister David Cameron to warn his Cabinet that violent IS jihadists were planning attacks on British soil (Staniforth, 2014a). The warning came amid growing concerns among senior security officials that the number of Britons leaving the UK to fight alongside extremist groups abroad was rising.
The export of British-born violent jihadists is nothing new, but the call to arms in Iraq this time had been amplified by a slick online recruitment campaign urging Muslims from across the world to join the fight and to post messages of support for IS. The rise in the UK threat level from Substantial to Severe in September 2014 was supported by figures published from the Channel program of the Association of Chief Police Officers, which seeks to support individuals who may be vulnerable to violent extremism. The Channel program had seen a 58% rise in referrals during 2013, dealing with 1,281 people in 2013–14, up from 748 the previous year (Staniforth, 2014a).
In a chilling online recruitment video designed to lure jihadists to Iraq, 20-year-old Nasser Muthana, a medical student from Cardiff, and his 17-year-old brother Aseel, declared their support for IS. In the video, Nasser states, “We understand no borders. We have participated in battles in Syria, and in a few days we will go to Iraq and will fight with them” (Staniforth, 2014a). Nasser attained 12 General Certificates of Secondary Education at grade A, studied for his A levels, and was offered places to enroll for medicine degrees at four UK universities the previous September, but instead he volunteered to swell the ranks of the Al Qaeda-inspired IS. Unbeknownst to his parents or the authorities, the former school council member and his younger brother, who was studying A levels at the time, traveled to Syria via Turkey to fight the Assad regime. Recognizing the early signs and potential indicators of radicalization development remains a challenge for the police, partners, the public, and parents. The father of the brothers-in-arms fighting for IS, Mr Muthana, declared no knowledge of their intended travel plans to Syria and had reported them missing to the police in November 2013 (Staniforth, 2014a). Mr Muthana was devastated that his sons had turned to violent extremism, stating that “Both my sons have been influenced by outsiders, I do not know by whom. Nasser is a calm boy, very bright and a high achiever.” He went on to say that “He loved rugby, playing football, and going camping with friends. But he has been got at and has left his home and everyone who loves him” (Staniforth, 2014b).
The Internet allows individuals to find people with shared views and values and to access information to support their radical beliefs and ideas. The unregulated and ungoverned expanse of the Internet knows no geographical boundaries, thus creating a space for radical activists to connect across the globe. This is especially problematic because easy access to like-minded people helps to normalize radical ideas such as the use of violence to solve grievances. Yet, it is impossible and well beyond the scope of any single government to solve the issue of radicalization by simple processes, such as the suggestion to clean up the Internet. Whereas the Internet provides a vital communication tool for terrorists, it has equally provided intelligence and law enforcement agencies with prime sources of evidence and intelligence about what terrorists are thinking and planning; but the full potential of the Internet, social media, and smart mobile communications has yet to be harnessed by those engaged in preventing terrorism and violent extremism.

Embracing Big Data

Recent developments in UK counterterrorism practices provide evidence of the operational reality in responding to the full range of contemporary terrorist threats. Modern counterterrorism is complex and investigators require all the help and support they can muster to keep communities safe from violent extremists. Although major steps have been taken to strengthen counterterrorism responses, the exploitation of open source information and the prioritization of intelligence already captured remain real operational challenges. With the addition of a new era of public responsibility and accountability, security officials would be well advised to put current counterterrorism practices under the microscope to examine how, moving forward, the counterterrorism machinery of the state can effectively harness the power of the Internet, social media, and associated smart mobile communications. The challenges for UK counterterrorism authorities identified thus far specifically relate to increasing volumes of data. This has presented practical difficulties in appropriately resourcing analytical capacity and capability, but the volume of data it represents fades into insignificance compared with what is termed “Big Data.”
“Big Data” is the term applied to large and complex datasets that come from many sources such as financial transactions, social media, and Internet searches, and has many applications especially within intelligence management and analytics for law enforcement agencies (CENTRIC, 2014). Big Data represents the greatest opportunity to increase the effective delivery of counterterrorism. Big Data analytics can help identify terrorist networks and their associations using open source intelligence (OSINT) combined with traditional intelligence sources (see Chapter 1). It can also rapidly support the identification of radical roots within online communities using capabilities such as social media analysis to identify informal networks, emerging topics, influencers, links between individuals, groups, or concepts, and sentiment analysis (see Chapters 10, 11, and 13). In essence, Big Data analytics can concurrently channel the intelligence and knowledge requirements for the Prevent, Pursue, Protect, and Prepare pillars of the CONTEST counterterrorism strategy in a coherent and holistic manner.
Using the strategic intelligence model of Akhgar et al. (Akhgar et al., 2013) for national security (i.e., assessment of threats in a proactive manner through knowledge-based decision making processes and holistic risk assessment) allows the creation of a high-level canonical set of requirements toe realize and implement Big Data analytics. The potentials for law enforcement agencies and security services in the context of CONTEST strategy can be summarized as:
1. Development of a unified Big Data vision across the national security apparatus
2. Definition of Big Data analytics capabilities for the concurrent realization of CONTEST pillars’ objectives. This includes a national Big Data strategy and a technology agnostic deployment methodology.
3. Scoping the integration between OSINT and traditional data sources (e.g., imagery intelligence and human intelligence)
4. Implementation of a knowledge architecture and data models for proactive monitoring and reactive response capabilities (e.g., gaining intelligence to prevent radicalization and disrupt terrorist attacks)
5. Building holistic deployment processes and infrastructure (e.g., legal and ethical procedures, return on investment on Big Data in terms of operational effectiveness and cost saving, key performance indicators, training, software and hardware capabilities)
The set of high-level requirements to realize and implement Big Data analytics for law enforcement ensures that the use of Big Data is fully embraced throughout the apparatus, architecture, and operational activities for tackling terrorism. The requirements serve to augment all efforts across the national security landscape to maximize the potential of Big Data analytics by providing an agreed-upon, shared, and coherent program that will rapidly increase the effectiveness of counterterrorism operations.

Conclusion

Throughout the history of UK counterterrorism practice, shocking and dramatic incidents at home and abroad have only served to deepen the resolve of the government to develop and strengthen its response. The tragic events of 9/11 and 7/7 provided the genesis for developing a stronger and more sophisticated approach to counterterrorism designed to meet the future challenges of an unpredictable world. Yet beyond resolute determination, such events must instill a re-dedication to preparedness so that new ways of working can be identified; practitioners push the boundaries of counterterrorism practice beyond the current state of the art; and most important, all in authority can embed progressive developments to ensure that the primary driver for change in counterterrorism practice is not simply the next successful attack.
The discovery of the homegrown terrorist threat has challenged the traditional pursuit of terrorists. The British government now seeks to ensure that mechanisms are in place to be able to draw on the valuable information and goodwill of communities from which aberrant extremists are recruited and radicalized. A major shift toward harnessing the capacity of the public and open source information to support the broader counterterrorism effort has been an important development in recent years. Such developments need to continue apace, and the full impact of Big Data on counterterrorism practices, focusing on the ability to better deliver safety and security to the public, must be further explored. In times of financial recession and austerity, the financial efficiency savings of Big Data opportunities must also be considered.
Harnessing the power of Big Data presents a unique opportunity to keep one step ahead of terrorist adversaries, but seamless integration and application to current counterterrorism practices also present numerous challenges. The handling of such large datasets raises acute concerns regarding existing storage capacity, together with the ability to share and analyze large volumes of data. The introduction of Big Data capabilities will require the rigorous review of existing intelligence models and associated processes to ensure counterterrorism practitioners have the tools to tackle terrorists using the power of Big Data analytics.
Although Big Data presents many opportunities, any developments to tackle terrorism in this arena will have to be guided by the state’s relationship with its citizenry and the law. In the post-Snowden era, which has revealed the extent of state surveillance, citizens remain cautious and suspicious of access to their online data. Any damage to public trust is counterproductive to contemporary counterterrorism practices, and just because the state may have developed the technologically and techniques to harness Big Data does not necessarily mean that it should. The legal, moral, and ethical challenges to Big Data must be fully explored alongside civil liberties and human rights, yet balanced with protecting the public from terrorist threats. Those in authority must also avoid at all costs the increased use of Big Data as a knee-jerk reaction to placate the public and the press after a terrorist attack. Experience over recent years shows that in the aftermath of terrorist events political stakes are high: politicians and legislators fear being seen as lenient or indifferent and often grant executive broader authorities without thorough debate.
New special provisions intended to be temporary turn out to be permanent. Although the government may frame its new provisions in terms of a choice between security and liberty, sometimes the loss of liberty is not necessarily balanced by a gain in safety, and the measures introduced become counterproductive. The application of Big Data should be carefully considered and not quickly introduced, because any misuse of its power may result in long-term damage of relations with citizens and communities as a result of the overextended and inappropriate use of Big Data capabilities. Big Data analytics must not be introduced by stealth, either, but through informed dialogue, passing though the due democratic process of government. Citizens are more likely to support robust measures against terrorists that are necessary, appropriate, and proportionate, but many citizens, and politicians for that matter, will need to be convinced that harnessing the power of Big Data is an essential part of keeping communities safe from terrorism and violent extremism.
It is important never to forget that compared with other types of serious crime, terrorism remains a relatively rare occurrence; but the cost is high when attacks succeed. Terrorism therefore continues to demand a determined response. The history of terrorism in the UK reveals with alarming regularity that terrorist plotters achieve their intended objectives, defeating all of the state’s security measures put in place at the time. Unfortunately, this pattern is not set to change. The police and intelligence agencies will prevent further terrorist atrocities, but there is a strong likelihood that they will not stop them all. In the light of that conclusion, all in authority must dedicate themselves to increasing counterterrorism capabilities and developing new approaches to better protect the public. To ignore or dismiss the positive benefits of Big Data would be misplaced and unwise. Harnessing the power of Big Data would be a game-changer for counterterrorism policy makers, professionals, and practitioners.
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