Truth 27. Recognize the power of intuition

We're all warned about not jumping to conclusions or judging a book by its cover. In fact, we usually buy a book based on the cover or make even more important decisions such as hiring a new employee based on initial, gut reactions. Often the results are not half bad, and sometimes they are better than careful, rational analysis. For example, in his book Blink, Malcolm Gladwell describes how the J. Paul Getty Museum spent 14 months carefully analyzing the authenticity of a Greek statue. A geologist analyzed a core sample from the statue and concluded that the stone was ancient, rather than a modern forgery. But later, a series of experts had immediate and visceral reactions to the statue. They were sure that it was a fake but couldn't explain why.

Starbucks founder Howard Schultz pursued his idea against all the best advice of his partners and those around him. With grounding in a certain discipline, we have the power to use our intuition to access our knowledge quickly. Gary Klein discusses how firefighters can make life-and-death decisions under time pressures. An experienced fire chief might sense a problem and pull his men out just before a building collapses.

In some cases, intuition is built upon deep experience. It is not a casual process or a hunch about an area of limited expertise. Where the trouble can come in with intuition is when we apply it in areas where we don't have this deep knowledge. We're notoriously good at fooling ourselves into thinking we know more than we do. Remember our tendency to be overconfident. This means that we'll follow our hunches right off the edge into oblivion. In trusting our gut, we need to be careful at the same time about falling into traps in our thinking.

Another concern with intuition is that the world may change. David Ogilvy may have wonderful intuition about print or television advertising, but will these instincts hold in an online world? Don't be like my St. Bernard who still walks around in circles three times before going to sleep—presumably some ancient ritual to trample the grass to prepare for rest. He doesn't live on the plains but has a dog bed already prepared. However, we often hold to old intuition that is just as out of step with our current environment. We need to be careful of intuition when the game has changed.

But intuition, used well, can be a fast and powerful way to make decisions. Think about some of the most important decisions of your life, and you may find that they were based more on gut feeling than rational analysis. In making a decision, pay attention to what your intuition is telling you. What do you feel about this decision? What is your gut telling you to do? How is this different from the results of careful analysis? Can your intuition indicate something that you're missing?