References
Introduction
1 Kay Redfield Jamison has a delightful description of Roosevelt and other "exuberant" decision makers such as "Snowflake" Bentley (whose passion for photographing snowflakes made him one of the foremost authorities on the topic) in her book Exuberance: The Passion for Life. New York: Alfred A. Knopf (Random House), 2004.
2 Gladwell, Malcolm. Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. Little Brown, 2005.
3 LeGault, Michael R. Th!nk: Why Crucial Decisions Can't Be Made in the Blink of an Eye. New York: Threshold Editions, 2006.
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4 Kopeikina, Luda. The Right Decision Every Time: How to Reach Perfect Clarity on Tough Decisions. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 2005.
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5 Phimister, James, Ulku Oktem, Howard Kunreuther, and Paul R. Kleindorfer. "Near-Miss Management Systems in the Chemical Process Industry." Risk Analysis, June 2003.
6 Ibid.
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7 Johnson, Eric J., John Hershey, Jacqueline Meszaros and Howard Kunreuther, "Framing, probability distortions, and insurance decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, August 1993, 7.1: 35–51.
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8 Simons, Daniel J., and Christopher F. Chabris. "Gorillas in Our Midst: Sustained Inattention Blindness for Dynamic Events." Perception 28 (1999): 1059–1074.
For further discussion of the implications of this study, see Yoram (Jerry) Wind and Colin Crook, The Power of Impossible Thinking, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Wharton School Publishing, 2005; and George S. Day and Paul J.H. Schoemaker, Peripheral Vision, Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2006, p. 21,
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9 Groopman, Jerome. "What's the Trouble? How Doctors Think." The New Yorker (January 29, 2007): 36–41.
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10 Gause, Donald C., and Gerald M. Weinberg. Are Your Lights On?: How to Figure Out What the Problem Really Is, New York: Dorset House Publishing Company, 1990.
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11 Kahn, Barbara, and Andrea Morales. "Choosing Variety." in Wharton on Making Decisions. Kunreuther, Howard, and Stephen Hoch, eds., New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2001, 63–80.
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12 Pollan, Michael. "Unhappy Meals." The New York Times Magazine (January 28, 2007): 39.
13 Meyer, Robert J., and J. Wesley Hutchinson. "Bumbling Geniuses: The Power of Everyday Reasoning in Multistage Decision Making." in Wharton on Making Decisions. Kunreuther, Howard, and Stephen Hoch, eds., New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2001, 37–61.
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14 Thomson, Clive. "Bicycle Helmets Put You at Risk." The New York Times Magazine, December 10, 2006: 36.
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16 Carey, John. "Medical Guesswork," BusinessWeek, May 29, 2006, p. 72.
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17 Drucker, Peter F., Management: Tasks, Responsibilities and Practices, New York: Harper & Row, 1974: 475–476.
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18 The term is attributed to William Whyte in a Fortune article in 1952, although the phenomenon was explored in more detail by Irving Janis in his book Victims of Groupthink. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1972.
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19 Kennedy, Robert F. Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: WW Norton & Company (1969): 44.
20 Surowiecki, James. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations. New York: Doubleday, 2004.
21 Ibid., 3.
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22 Rogers, Paul, and Marcia Blenko. "Who Has the D? How Clear Decision Roles Enhance Organizational Performance." Harvard Business Review (January 2006).
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23 Maule, A. J. and O. Svenson. Time Pressure and Stress in Human Judgment and Decision Making. New York: Plenum Press, 1993.
24 Kowalski-Trakofler, K. M., C. Vaught, and T. Scharf. "Judgment and Decision Making Under Stress: An Overview for Emergency Managers." International Journal of Emergency Management, Vol. 1, No. 3 (2003): 278–289.
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25 Luce, Mary Frances, John W. Payne, and James R. Bettman. "The Emotional Nature of Decision Trade-Offs." Wharton on Making Decisions. Kunreuther, Howard, and Stephen Hoch, eds., New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2001, 17-35.
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26 Huntsman, Jon. Winners Never Cheat: Everyday Values We Learned as Children (But May Have Forgotten). Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Wharton School Publishing, 2005.
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27 www.monticello.org/jefferson/lewisandclark/instructions.html.
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28 Bossidy, Larry, and Ram Charan. Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done. New York: Crown Business (2002): 3–4.
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29 Baron, Jonathan. "Psychology Humor." Attributed to Barry F. Anderson, http://www.psych.upenn.edu/humor.html.
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30 Levine, Stephen. A Year to Live: How to Live This Year as if It Were Your Last. New York: Bell Tower (Random House), 1997.