Truth 13. Understand common "decision traps"

You can't trust your own mind. We all make idiosyncratic mistakes in our individual decisions, but we share some common flaws that lead us into decision traps. In their classic book, Decision Traps, J. Edward Russo and Paul Schoemaker identified ten of the most dangerous decision traps in decision making:

• Acting too quickly or plunging in without giving sufficient attention to gathering information and deciding how to decide
• Solving the wrong problem due to frame blindness
• Having limited perspective and lack of "frame control"
• Displaying overconfidence in your judgment
• Being blindsided by conventional wisdom or other "shortsighted shortcuts"
• Shooting from the hip rather than using a systematic procedure
• Assuming that groups will make better decisions than individuals
• Failing to interpret evidence about past outcomes so you fool yourself about feedback
• Not keeping track of the results of your past decisions and learning from them
• Failing to audit your decision process and improve it

Understanding these and other traps (some of which are explored in more detail on the following pages) can help you recognize when you're about drop into one. This understanding can also help you think through strategies to prevent falling into these traps.

Remember how Odysseus, in the ancient story of his return from the Trojan War, was about to sail past the island of the sirens. Their voices were known for their unspeakable beauty, but they lured unsuspecting sailors to their deaths on the rocky shores of their island like moths to a flame. Since Odysseus was aware of this trap, as he approached the land of the sirens, he plugged the ears of his men. He had them tie him to the mast, with orders not to release him no matter how much he pleaded. By knowing his own weaknesses, he could take steps to prevent falling into this trap.

If you recognize the traps in your own thinking, you can effectively tie yourself to the mast to avoid falling onto these dark rocks.