Truth 17. You're not as clever as you think you are

In 1869, Major John Wesley Powell organized an expedition of ten men to explore the Green and the Colorado Rivers in the heart of the Grand Canyon. They traveled almost 1,000 miles by open boat through some of the most legendary rapids in the world. With the long journey and spoilage of their meager supplies due to moisture, their food was running out. There was no clear end in sight. After more than two months of battling the river, three men from the party took their leave of Powell at what became known as Separation Canyon. They told Powell, "We surely all will die if we continue on this journey." They were certain that the way forward meant death, so they decided to take their chances hiking out. But they were wrong. They were killed on their way out, probably by members of the Shivwits tribe.

Just three days after the separation, at the mouth of the Virgin River, Powell came across settlers fishing on the riverbanks. Powell and his remaining five crew members made it back safely. The three men who left the party based their decision on their confidence that they knew the way forward would be fatal. This was a miscalculation and a tragic example of overconfidence.

We all suffer from overconfidence. We're not as smart as we think we are. The brilliant Thomas Edison dismissed the phonograph as "not of any commercial value." Tell that to the music industry, which has topped $40 billion in the United States alone. While the technologies have changed, the industry is a direct outgrowth of Edison's "worthless" invention.

If you're human, you're probably overconfident, so take some actions to counter this tendency. Surround yourself with people who can challenge you and deflate your ego. (Spouses, children, and close friends often are quite adept at this.) Look at the facts. Powell, of course, tried to talk his men out of leaving the group. They might have listened to his arguments or considered that they would be better off remaining together than separating (or that Powell had managed to keep them alive through several months of the roughest whitewater). Get the facts instead of relying on guesswork. Sometimes a little bit of data can be a sobering wakeup call. It can show how out of step with reality your own opinions may be. Be willing to be humble about your own level of knowledge.

Approach new challenges as a student and learner rather than an expert. (Remember that experts also tend to be overconfident.) It may be that you need to be willing to appear foolish to truly make wise decisions.