APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 16
Fixed Income Options

A16.1 THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS FOR APPLYING BLACK‐SCHOLES‐MERTON (BSM) TO SELECTED FIXED INCOME OPTIONS

The justification for applying BSM in each of the cases of the text takes the following form:

  1. Given the functional form of a probability distribution (e.g., normal, lognormal), there exist parameters of that distribution such that upper V 0, the arbitrage‐free price of any asset today, is given by, where upper N Subscript t is the price at time t of an asset chosen as the numeraire; upper V Subscript t is value at time t of an asset being priced today, including reinvested cash flows; and upper E Subscript t Baseline left-bracket dot right-bracket gives expectations as of time t under the appropriately parameterized probability distribution. Equation (A16.1) is known as the martingale property of asset prices. This claim is proved in a special case in Section A16.2 but used more generally here.
  2. Say that the rate or security price underlying an option at time t is upper S Subscript t. It follows from the previous point that the value of a call option with strike upper K and time to expiry upper T is, while the value of a put is,
  3. In the contexts of the text, it is possible to choose the numeraire such that, and such that Equations (A16.2) and (A16.3) can be written as, respectively,
    (A16.5)upper V 0 Superscript upper C a l l Baseline equals h 0 upper E 0 left-bracket left-parenthesis upper S Subscript upper T Baseline minus upper K right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline right-bracket
    for some h 0 that is known as of time 0. This is proven in Section A16.3.
  4. If upper S Subscript t has a normal distribution with volatility parameter sigma, then Section A16.4 shows that (A16.4) through (A16.6) become the normal BSM‐style formulae,
    (A16.7)upper V 0 Superscript upper C a l l Baseline equals h 0 xi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis
    (A16.8)upper V 0 Superscript upper P u t Baseline equals h 0 pi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis
    for the functions xi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis dot right-parenthesis and pi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis dot right-parenthesis defined in that section. On the other hand, if upper S Subscript t has a lognormal distribution with volatility parameter sigma, Section A16.4 shows that (A16.4) through (A16.6) become the lognormal BSM‐style formulae,
    (A16.9)upper V 0 Superscript upper C a l l Baseline equals h 0 xi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis
    and
    (A16.10)upper V 0 Superscript upper P u t Baseline equals h 0 pi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis
    for the functions xi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis dot right-parenthesis and pi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis dot right-parenthesis defined in that section.

A16.2 NUMERAIRES, PRICING MEASURES, AND THE MARTINGALE PROPERTY

Define the following:

  • Gains process. The gains process of an asset at any time equals the value of that asset at that time plus the value of all its cash flows reinvested to that time. For this purpose, all cash flows are reinvested and then rolled at prevailing short‐term interest rates.
  • Numeraire asset. Given a particular numeraire asset, the gains process of any other asset can be expressed in terms of the numeraire asset by dividing that gains process by the gains process of the numeraire asset. The gains process of a security in terms of the numeraire asset is called the normalized gains process of that asset.

For concreteness, Table A16.1 gives an example of these concepts. The asset under consideration is a long‐term, 4% coupon bond with a face amount of 100. The numeraire is a two‐year zero coupon bond with a unit face amount. The gains process is observed today, after one year, and after two years.

The realization of the short‐term rate, which in this example is the one‐year rate, is given in row (i). The realization of the bond price over time is given in row (ii). A 4% coupon on 100 is paid on dates 1 and 2 and shown in row (iii) and row (iv). The payment on date 1 is reinvested for one year at the short‐term rate on date 1, that is, 2%. The gains process of the bond given in row (v) is the sum of its price and reinvested cash flows, i.e., the sums of rows (ii) through (iv). The price realization of the two‐year zero coupon bond, which is the chose numeraire, is given in row (vi). Finally, the normalized bond gains process, given in row (vii), is the bond gains process divided by the price of the numeraire, i.e., row (v) divided by row (vi).

These definitions allow for the statement of the main result of this section: in the absence of arbitrage opportunities, there exists a parameterization of a given probability distribution, or a pricing measure, such that the normalized gains of any asset today equals the expected value of that asset's normalized gains in the future. Technically, there exist probabilities such that the normalized gains process is a martingale. As the goal here is intuition rather than mathematical generality, this result is proven in the context of a single‐period, binomial process.

TABLE A16.1 Example of the Calculation of a Normalized Gains Process

End‐of‐Year Realizations
012
(i)Short‐Term/1‐Year Rate1%2%1.5%
(ii)Bond Price1009597.50
(iii)Date 1 Reinvested Coupon44(1.02)=4.08
(iv)Date 2 Reinvested Coupon4
(v)Gains Process10099105.58
(vi)Price of 2‐Year Zero/Numeraire0.96120.98041.0
(vii)Normalized Bond Gains Process104.04100.98105.58

The starting point is state 0 of date 0, after which the economy moves to either state 0 or state 1 of date 1. Three assets will be considered, A, B, and C, with current prices upper A 0, upper B 0, and upper C 0, and date 1, state i prices of upper A 1 Superscript i, upper B 1 Superscript i, and upper C 1 Superscript i. Without loss of generality here, the date 1 prices include any cash flows of the securities on date 1.

In this framework, any asset can be priced by arbitrage relative to the other two assets. The method is just as in Chapter 7. To price asset C by arbitrage, construct its replicating portfolio, in particular, a portfolio with alpha of asset A and beta of asset B such that,

Then, to rule out risk‐free arbitrage opportunities, it must be the case that,

Now let asset A be the numeraire and rewrite equations (A16.11) through (A16.13) in terms of the normalized gains processes of assets B and C. To do this, simply divide each of the equations by the corresponding value of the numeraire asset A, that is, divide (A16.11) by upper A 1 Superscript 0, (A16.12) by upper A 1 Superscript 1, and (A16.13) by upper A 0. Furthermore, denote the normalized gains process of the assets by upper B overbar and upper C overbar. Then, equations (A16.11) through (A16.13) become,

Furthermore, solving (A16.14) and (A16.15) for alpha and beta,

In the framework just described, it is now shown that there exists a pricing measure such that the expected normalized gains process of each security is a martingale. More specifically, there is a probability p of moving to state 1 of date 1 (and 1 minus p of moving to state 0 of date 1) such that the expected value of the normalized gain of each security on date 1 equals its normalized gain on date 0. Mathematically, it has to be shown that there is a p such that,

Solving (A16.20) for p gives,

But this value of p also solves (A16.19). To see this, start by substituting p from (A16.21) into the right‐hand side of (A16.19),

Equation (A16.23) just rearranges the terms of (A16.22); combining (A16.23) with (A16.17) and (A16.18) gives (A16.24); and (A16.24) with (A16.16) gives (A16.25). Hence, as was to be shown, there is a pricing measure, in this case the probability p, such that the normalized gains processes of B and C are martingales. And, of course, since nothing distinguishes A from the other assets, a probability with the same properties could have been found had B or C been chosen as the numeraire instead.

A16.3 CHOOSING THE NUMERAIRE AND BSM PRICING

In the contexts of this chapter, it is possible to choose a numeraire such that the underlying is a martingale and such that the value of a call is given by h 0 xi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis or h 0 xi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis, in the normal or lognormal cases, respectively, and the value of a put by h 0 pi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis or h 0 pi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis in the normal or lognormal cases, where those functions are defined in Section A16.4. This section gives the appropriate definition of the underlying, the appropriate numeraire, and the resulting quantity h 0.

A16.3.1 Bond Options

Start with a European‐style option, expiring on date upper T, written on a longer‐term bond. The underlying of this option is a forward position in the bond for delivery on date upper T. It is first shown that taking the zero coupon bond maturing at time upper T to be the numeraire makes this forward bond price a martingale. Proving this is somewhat complex, because the gains process of a bond includes reinvested coupons. Therefore, to keep the presentation simple, the martingale result is derived in a three‐date, two‐period setting. The current date is date 0, and the expiration or forward delivery date is date 2. The bond is assumed to pay a coupon c on each of dates 1 and 2, and its price at time t is denoted upper B Subscript t. The numeraire is the zero coupon bond maturing on date 2 with a price, on date t, of d Subscript t(2). Lastly, let r 1 denote the current one‐period rate; r 2 the one‐period rate, realized one period from now; and f the current one‐period rate, one‐period forward.

Under these assumptions, and the expression of the zero coupon bond price on various dates in terms of the prevailing one‐period rates, the gains process of the bond on the three dates is given by the expressions,

  • Date 0: StartFraction upper B 0 Over d 0 left-parenthesis 2 right-parenthesis EndFraction equals upper B 0 left-parenthesis 1 plus r 1 right-parenthesis left-parenthesis 1 plus f right-parenthesis;
  • Date 1: StartFraction upper B 1 plus c Over d 1 left-parenthesis 2 right-parenthesis EndFraction equals left-parenthesis upper B 1 plus c right-parenthesis left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis;
  • Date 2: StartFraction upper B 2 plus c left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis plus c Over d 2 left-parenthesis 2 right-parenthesis EndFraction equals upper B 2 plus c left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis plus c

Therefore, the martingale property for the bond says that,

The term c left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis in the expectation on the right‐hand side of (A16.26) requires some attention, because r 2 is not known as of date 0. The date‐0 value of a payment of c left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis on date 2 is, however, by the definition of forward rates,

(A16.27)StartFraction c left-parenthesis 1 plus f right-parenthesis Over left-parenthesis 1 plus r 1 right-parenthesis left-parenthesis 1 plus f right-parenthesis EndFraction equals StartFraction c Over 1 plus r 1 EndFraction

So, applying the martingale property under the numeraire to a payment of c left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis on date 2 requires that,

With this result, the discussion returns to the martingale property of the bond in (A16.26). Substituting (A16.28) into (A16.26),

The left‐hand side of the second line of (A16.29) is the date 0 forward price of the bond for delivery on date 2. The third line, then, simply denotes this forward price by upper B 0 left-parenthesis 2 right-parenthesis. Hence, taking the zero coupon bond of maturity upper T as a numeraire, the forward price of a bond for delivery on date upper T is a martingale.

Turning now to the price of an option on the bond, consider a call with payoff left-parenthesis upper B Subscript upper T Baseline minus upper K right-parenthesis Superscript plus. Applying the martingale property to the option price and assuming that the forward bond price is lognormal with volatility parameter sigma, the call option is priced as,

(A16.30)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column StartFraction upper V 0 Superscript upper B o n d upper C a l l Baseline Over d 0 left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis EndFraction 2nd Column equals upper E 0 left-bracket StartFraction left-parenthesis upper B Subscript upper T Baseline minus upper K right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline Over d Subscript upper T Baseline left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis EndFraction right-bracket EndLayout
(A16.31)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column Blank 2nd Column equals upper E 0 left-bracket left-parenthesis upper B Subscript upper T Baseline minus upper K right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline right-bracket EndLayout
(A16.32)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column upper V 0 Superscript upper B o n d upper C a l l 2nd Column equals d 0 left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis xi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper B 0 left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis EndLayout

An analogous argument for a put shows that,

(A16.33)upper V 0 Superscript upper B o n d upper P u t Baseline equals d 0 left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis pi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper B 0 left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis

A16.3.2 Euribor Futures Options

The terminal payoff of a Euribor futures call option with strike upper K and expiration time upper T is, per unit notional,

(A16.34)left-bracket upper K minus f Subscript upper T Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis right-bracket Superscript plus

Given the daily settlement feature of Euribor futures options, the numeraire of choice is the money market account, the value of one unit of currency invested and then rolled every period, at the prevailing short‐term rate. Denoting the money market account by upper M left-parenthesis t right-parenthesis and the short‐term rate from time t minus 1 to t by r Subscript t,

(A16.35)upper M left-parenthesis 0 right-parenthesis equals 1
(A16.36)upper M left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis equals left-parenthesis 1 plus r 1 right-parenthesis left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis midline-horizontal-ellipsis left-parenthesis 1 plus r Subscript upper T Baseline right-parenthesis

The first point to make about the money market account is that it is the numeraire of the risk‐neutral short‐term rate process used in the term structure models presented earlier in the book. To see this, apply the martingale property with the numeraire to an arbitrary gains process upper V Subscript t at time t,

But the second line of (A16.37) is just the condition that the value of a claim today equals its expected discounted value.

The second point to make about the money markets as numeraire is that futures prices are martingales under this numeraire. This is proved in Section A16.5.

Turning now to Euribor futures options, because they are subject to daily settlement and are futures contracts, their prices are also martingales with the money market account as numeraire. Furthermore, if upper F Subscript t is the underlying futures price at time t, then at the expiration of a put option on the futures price (call on rates) at time upper T, the option is worth left-parenthesis upper F Subscript upper T Baseline minus upper K right-parenthesis Superscript plus. Putting together the martingale property of the futures, (A16.38), the martingale property of futures options, (A16.39), and the final settlement price of the futures options, (A16.40), results in the price of the Euribor futures put option at time t, denoted upper V Subscript t Superscript upper E upper B upper P u t,

Assuming now that upper F Subscript upper T is normally distributed, applying Section A16.4 to Equations (A16.38) and (A16.40) shows that,

(A16.41)upper V 0 Superscript upper E upper B upper P u t Baseline equals xi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper F 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis

Similarly, for the Euribor futures call option (put on rates),

(A16.42)upper V Subscript t Superscript upper E upper B upper C a l l Baseline equals pi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper F 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis

A16.3.3 Bond Futures Options

As shown in Section A16.5, futures prices are a martingale in the risk‐neutral measure, that is, when the numeraire is the money market account, upper M left-parenthesis t right-parenthesis. Hence, with upper F Subscript t the underlying bond futures price at time t,

By the martingale property, the price of a put option on the futures is,

(A16.44)StartFraction upper V 0 Superscript upper F u t upper P u t Baseline Over upper M left-parenthesis 0 right-parenthesis EndFraction equals upper E 0 left-bracket StartFraction left-parenthesis upper K minus upper F Subscript upper T Baseline right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline Over upper M left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis EndFraction right-bracket

Then, by the definition of the money market account,

To continue, make the assumption – defended in the text – that the discount factor is uncorrelated with the futures price. Then, Equation (A16.45) becomes,

(A16.46)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column upper V 0 Superscript upper F u t upper P u t 2nd Column equals upper E 0 left-bracket StartFraction 1 Over left-parenthesis 1 plus r 1 right-parenthesis left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis midline-horizontal-ellipsis left-parenthesis 1 plus r Subscript upper T Baseline right-parenthesis EndFraction right-bracket upper E 0 left-bracket left-parenthesis upper K minus upper F Subscript upper T Baseline right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline right-bracket EndLayout

where (A16.47) follows from the risk‐neutral pricing of a zero coupon bond.

Finally, applying Section A16.5 to (A16.43), (A16.47) with the assumption that the bond futures price has a lognormal distribution,

(A16.48)upper V 0 Superscript upper F u t upper P u t Baseline equals d 0 left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis pi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper F 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis

For calls, the analogous result is,

(A16.49)upper V 0 Superscript upper F u t upper C a l l Baseline equals d 0 left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis xi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper F 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis

A16.3.4 Caplets

Caplets that mature at time upper T are written on a forward rate from time upper T to upper T plus tau, whose value, at time t, is denoted by f Subscript t Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis. It is first shown that taking a upper T plus tau‐year zero coupon bond as the numeraire makes this forward rate a martingale. Let d Subscript t Baseline left-parenthesis upper T right-parenthesis be the time‐t price of a zero coupon bond maturing at time upper T. By the definition of a forward rate of term tau,

Next, consider a portfolio that is long a upper T‐year zero and short a upper T plus tau‐year zero. Taking the upper T plus tau‐year zero as the numeraire, the normalized gains process of this portfolio is a martingale. Mathematically,

where the last line of (A16.51) just uses the definition of the forward rate. Combining (A16.50) and (A16.51) shows that the forward rate is a martingale under the chosen numeraire,

Turning to the valuation of the caplet, its normalized gains process is a martingale as well. Hence, taking expectations of its normalized gain as of upper T plus tau,

(A16.53)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column StartFraction upper V 0 Superscript upper C a p l e t Baseline Over d 0 left-parenthesis upper T plus tau right-parenthesis EndFraction 2nd Column equals upper E 0 left-bracket StartFraction tau left-parenthesis f Subscript upper T Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis minus upper K right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline Over d Subscript upper T plus tau Baseline left-parenthesis upper T plus tau right-parenthesis EndFraction right-bracket EndLayout
(A16.54)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column Blank 2nd Column equals upper E 0 left-bracket tau left-parenthesis f Subscript upper T Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis minus upper K right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline right-bracket EndLayout

Finally, assuming that the forward rate f Subscript upper T Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis is normal with variance sigma squared upper T, and knowing from (A16.52) with t equals 0 that its mean is f 0 left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis, the results of Section A16.4 apply and,

(A16.55)upper V 0 Superscript upper C a p l e t Baseline equals d 0 left-parenthesis upper T plus tau right-parenthesis tau xi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis f 0 left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis

A16.3.5 Swaptions

The underlying of a upper T‐year into tau‐year swaption is the forward par swap rate from upper T to upper T plus tau, which, at time t, is denoted by upper C Subscript t Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis. It is first shown that taking an annuity from upper T to upper T plus tau as the numeraire makes this forward par swap rate a martingale. Denote the price of this annuity by upper A Subscript t Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis.

Consider receiving the fixed‐rate upper K on a swap from upper T to upper T plus tau. Its value at time t is,

(A16.56)left-bracket upper K minus upper C Subscript t Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis right-bracket upper A Subscript t Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis

Applying the martingale property with this annuity as numeraire,

Hence, as claimed, the forward par swap rate is a martingale under this numeraire.

To price a receiver swaption, note that the payoff is left-bracket upper K minus upper C Subscript upper T Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis right-bracket Superscript plus × upper A Subscript upper T Baseline left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis. Therefore, its value can be calculated as the expectation of its normalized payoff using the same numeraire,

The last line of (A16.58) follows from (A16.57), the assumption that the forward par swap rate is normal with variance sigma squared upper T, and the appropriate result from Section A16.4.

Similarly, a payer option under the assumption of normality has the value,

(A16.59)upper V 0 Superscript upper P a y e r Baseline equals upper A 0 left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis xi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper C 0 left-parenthesis upper T comma upper T plus tau right-parenthesis comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis

A16.4 EXPECTATIONS FOR BLACK‐SCHOLES‐MERTON STYLE OPTION PRICING

As the results in this section are part of the option pricing literature, they are presented here for easy reference but without proof. Let upper E Superscript upper N Baseline left-bracket dot right-bracket and upper E Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-bracket dot right-bracket denote the expectations operators under the normal and lognormal distributions, respectively, and let upper N left-parenthesis dot right-parenthesis denote the standard normal cumulative distribution.

If upper S Subscript upper T is normally distributed with means upper S 0 and variance sigma squared upper T, then,

(A16.60)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column xi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis 2nd Column identical-to upper E 0 Superscript upper N Baseline left-bracket left-parenthesis upper S Subscript upper T Baseline minus upper K right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline right-bracket 2nd Row 1st Column Blank 2nd Column equals left-parenthesis upper S 0 minus upper K right-parenthesis upper N left-parenthesis d right-parenthesis plus StartFraction sigma StartRoot upper T EndRoot Over StartRoot 2 pi EndRoot EndFraction e Superscript minus one half d squared EndLayout
(A16.61)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column pi Superscript upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis 2nd Column identical-to upper E 0 Superscript upper N Baseline left-bracket left-parenthesis upper K minus upper S Subscript upper T Baseline right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline right-bracket 2nd Row 1st Column Blank 2nd Column equals left-parenthesis upper K minus upper S 0 right-parenthesis upper N left-parenthesis negative d right-parenthesis plus StartFraction sigma StartRoot upper T EndRoot Over StartRoot 2 pi EndRoot EndFraction e Superscript minus one half d squared EndLayout
(A16.62)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column d 2nd Column equals StartFraction upper S 0 minus upper K Over sigma StartRoot upper T EndRoot EndFraction EndLayout

If upper S Subscript upper T is lognormally distributed with mean upper S 0 and variance upper S 0 squared left-parenthesis e Superscript sigma squared upper T Baseline minus 1 right-parenthesis, then,

(A16.63)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column xi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis 2nd Column identical-to upper E 0 Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-bracket left-parenthesis upper S Subscript upper T Baseline minus upper K right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline right-bracket 2nd Row 1st Column Blank 2nd Column equals upper S 0 upper N left-parenthesis d 1 right-parenthesis minus upper K upper N left-parenthesis d 2 right-parenthesis EndLayout
(A16.64)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column pi Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-parenthesis upper S 0 comma upper T comma upper K comma sigma right-parenthesis 2nd Column identical-to upper E 0 Superscript upper L upper N Baseline left-bracket left-parenthesis upper K minus upper S Subscript upper T Baseline right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline right-bracket 2nd Row 1st Column Blank 2nd Column equals upper K upper N left-parenthesis minus d 2 right-parenthesis minus upper S 0 upper N left-parenthesis minus d 1 right-parenthesis EndLayout
(A16.65)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column d 1 2nd Column equals StartStartFraction ln left-parenthesis StartFraction upper S 0 Over upper K EndFraction right-parenthesis plus one half sigma squared upper T OverOver sigma StartRoot upper T EndRoot EndEndFraction EndLayout
(A16.66)StartLayout 1st Row 1st Column d 2 2nd Column equals d 1 minus sigma StartRoot upper T EndRoot EndLayout

A16.5 FUTURES PRICES ARE MARTINGALES WITH THE MONEY MARKET ACCOUNT AS A NUMERAIRE

The initial value of a futures contract is zero; subsequent cash flows are from daily settlements; and at maturity, the futures price is determined by some final settlement rule. Consider a two‐period, three‐date framework for simplicity, and let the futures price on date t be upper F Subscript t. Then, the normalized gains process is,

  • Date 0: StartFraction upper V 0 Over upper M left-parenthesis 0 right-parenthesis EndFraction equals 0;
  • Date 1: StartFraction upper V 1 Over upper M left-parenthesis 1 right-parenthesis EndFraction equals StartFraction upper F 1 minus upper F 0 Over 1 plus r 1 EndFraction;
  • Date 2: StartFraction upper V 2 Over upper M left-parenthesis 2 right-parenthesis EndFraction equals StartFraction left-parenthesis upper F 1 minus upper F 0 right-parenthesis left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis plus upper F 2 minus upper F 1 Over left-parenthesis 1 plus r 1 right-parenthesis left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis EndFraction

Since the value of a futures contact on date 0 is zero, the martingale property implies that the expectation of the normalized gains at any future date is zero. In particular, for date 1,

But since r 1 is known as of date 0, it follows from (A16.67) that,

As of date 2, the martingale property says that

(A16.69)0 equals upper E 0 left-bracket StartFraction left-parenthesis upper F 1 minus upper F 0 right-parenthesis left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis plus upper F 2 minus upper F 1 Over left-parenthesis 1 plus r 1 right-parenthesis left-parenthesis 1 plus r 2 right-parenthesis EndFraction right-bracket

Using the law of iterated expectations, and the fact that r 1 is known as of date 0,

But, since upper F 1 is known as of date 1, (A16.70) implies that,

Finally then, combine (A16.68) and (A16.71) to see that,

Together with (A16.68), (A16.72) shows that the futures price is a martingale under the money‐market account or risk‐neutral measure, as desired.

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